Tag: returns

Theme Recap 19.10.2019

A quick look at the results of some of our most popular investment strategies over the last 200-days.

Static Momentum Themes

Static Momentum Themes 200-day performance

Dynamic Momentum Themes

Dynamic Momentum Themes 200-day performance

Value Themes

Value Themes 200-day performance

Machine Learning Themes

Machine Learning Themes 200-day performance

Neural Network Themes

Neural Network Themes 200-day performance

*BRK denotes returns after assuming a brokerage of 0.1% and an STT of 0.1%

A complete list of Themes and investment strategies can be found here.

Theme Recap 12.10.2019

A quick look at the results of some of our most popular investment strategies over the last 200-days.

Static Momentum Themes

Static Momentum Themes 200-day performance

Dynamic Momentum Themes

Dynamic Momentum Themes 200-day performance

Value Themes

Value Themes 200-day performance

Machine Learning Themes

Machine Learning Themes 200-day performance

Neural Network Themes

Neural Network Themes 200-day performance

*BRK denotes returns after assuming a brokerage of 0.1% and an STT of 0.1%

A complete list of Themes and investment strategies can be found here.

Theme Recap 05.10.2019

A quick look at the results of some of our most popular investment strategies over the last 200-days.

Static Momentum Themes

Static Momentum Themes 200-day performance

Dynamic Momentum Themes

Dynamic Momentum Themes 200-day performance

Value Themes

Value Themes 200-day performance

Machine Learning Themes

Machine Learning Themes 200-day performance

Neural Network Themes

Neural Network Themes 200-day performance

*BRK denotes returns after assuming a brokerage of 0.1% and an STT of 0.1%

A complete list of Themes and investment strategies can be found here.

Theme Recap 28.09.2019

A quick look at the results of some of our most popular investment strategies over the last 200-days.

Static Momentum Themes

Static Momentum Themes 200-day performance

Dynamic Momentum Themes

Dynamic Momentum Themes 200-day performance

Value Themes

Value Themes 200-day performance

Machine Learning Themes

Machine Learning Themes 200-day performance

Neural Network Themes

Neural Network Themes 200-day performance

*BRK denotes returns after assuming a brokerage of 0.1% and an STT of 0.1%

A complete list of Themes and investment strategies can be found here.

The Buy and Hold Bet

The biggest bet that buy and hold investors of a given country are making is that their government stays committed to increase, preserve and protect their citizen’s wealth. It is a combination of regulation, property rights, human capital, investor sentiment and global capital flows.

Buy and hold worked out great for US investors in the last 30-years. Inflation was mostly under control and they enjoyed a dollarized world with the rest of the world sending their surpluses to the US. But It wasn’t always like this.

The year 1980 was a turning point for US bonds and equities. Not that there weren’t hiccups along the way – Black Friday, tech bust, GFC, etc – but it was the beginning of a huge tail-wind that continues to blow even today. Compare the simulation results of pre-1980 equity returns vs. what came next:

Pre-1980: 5% possibility of loss in a buy-and-hold portfolio
Post-1980: 0% possibility of loss in a buy-and-hold portfolio

The post 1980 data-set is so skewed that when you use the entire data-set – 1964 through 2019 – for running the simulation, you end up with a 0% loss as well.

1964-2019: 0% possibility of loss in a buy-and-hold portfolio

With this data-set, it is easy to conclude that a buy-the-market “passive” buy-and-hold strategy is superior to everything else. But that would be a very aggressive conclusion to draw.

There are quite a few countries with equity returns (since 1993) in the low single digits: GREECE, CHINA, JORDAN, JAPAN, IRELAND, AUSTRIA, PAKISTAN.

CHINA, a country that grew its GDP in double digits, was a very poor equity investment. And JAPAN was the world’s second largest economy in 1995 but their equities are a joke on twitter.

Only DENMARK, USA and SWITZERLAND had an extremely small chance of posting negative buy-and-hold returns.

Out of the 43 Country specific MSCI indices we analyzed, half had more than a 10% chance of giving negative returns to buy-and-hold investors. India had a 6% chance.

6% possibility of loss in a buy-and-hold portfolio

Any analysis done on US stocks should be taken with a pinch of salt. The rest of the world does not work that way.

This post expands on an earlier one on the same topic.