Author: Abhishek

Analysis: DRREDDY (RDY)

Today’s pick is [stockquote]DRREDDY[/stockquote]. The last year saw the stock trading in a 1500 to 1800 range and the stock is in an up-trend since July lows. In the last three month period, the stock was up 5.5% vs. the Nifty’s 8.3%. The stock is approaching 52-week resistance at 1815 levels, after bouncing off the support at 1500 levels.

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Oscillators RSI and CMO are at currently at 64 and 39 and are closing in towards the over-bought territory.

MACD line and the signal line are departing from each other on a positive note; the histogram levels are rising as well in-sync with the short-term up-trend.

The GMMA chart shows both long-term and short-term lines fanning out. If this continues, it would be extremely bullish for the stock.

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DRREDDY’s average correlation of 0.33 with the Nifty is positive. The stock will not replicate the movements of Nifty closely because of the low co-efficient. [stockquote]NIFTYBEES[/stockquote]

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DRREDDY has a historical volatility in the range of 0.25 to 0.45 which is a very narrow range. The scrip’s volatility is currently in the middle range and hence should not be a concern.

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Analysts already have high expectations regarding this stock, as is evident from the very high proportion of the buy and outperform calls. A single earnings miss from the firm, or an analyst downgrade might trigger a steep slide in the stock.  Also, insiders have sold about Rs. 3.5 Cr. worth of NCD’s in the last one month period.

Looking at these technicals a short-term hold is suggested. A break-out/continued resistance at the 1800 levels will be essential to direct the stock either to an up-trend/down-trend.

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Weekly Recap

NIFTY.2012-10-29.2012-11-2

The NIFTY ended on a positive note, drifting up +0.82% for the week.
Biggest losers were BHEL (-5.36%), HINDUNILVR (-3.48%) and BPCL (-3.43%).
And the biggest winners were WIPRO (+8.50%), MARUTI (+7.34%) and IDFC (+6.62%).
Advancers lead decliners 29 vs 21
fii.2012-10-29.2012-11-2Gold: -0.02%, Banks: -0.70%. Infrastructure: -3.77%,
Net FII flows for the week: – $69.63 mm (Equity) and $561.84 mm (Debt)
Net domestic institutional flows for the week: – $35.50 mm (Equity) and $1,425.20 mm (Debt)
Daily news summaries are here.

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Analysis: WIPRO

Today’s pick is [stockquote]WIPRO[/stockquote]. The last year saw the stock trading in a 330 to 450 range and the stock just tested the support levels around 52 week lows. In the past 50 days the stock made return of 3.8% as against 6.2% made by Nifty.

The stock has been in a down-trend since April this year, with a support near the 335 levels and resistance around 450.

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Oscillators RSI and CMO are at currently at 54 and 6 and are hovering in the no man’s land.

MACD line just crossed the signal line and is on a rise; the histogram levels are rising as well suggesting short-term up-trend.

The GMMA chart is not suggesting any directional move as of now. The short-term lines are constricting and long-term lines are spreading. When the lines fan out, we will be able to take a stand on the direction. image

WIPRO’s average correlation of 0.56 with the Nifty is positive and strong. The stock will not replicate the movements of Nifty closely. [stockquote]NIFTYBEES[/stockquote]

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WIPRO has a historical volatility in the range of 0.3 to 0.7. The scrip’s volatility is currently in the middle range and hence should not be a concern to the traders.

Looking at these technicals a short-term buy is suggested. For the long-term outlook of the scrip we will have to wait for GMMA lines to give some direction.

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Preetam’s List

Roundup: Dow -0.08%. S&P +0.02%. Stoxx 50 -0.49%. Italy +0.12%. London –1.15%. Germany –0.33%. France -0.87%.

Taiwan and South Korea experienced huge outflows of people to the United States and other countries in the 1960s and ’70s, even as their economies were taking off. Wealth and better education have always been a major reason to go abroad. A concern about political oppression is forcing the Chinese emigration story to change – (NY) 

Will hurricane sandy be able to play a hand in the upcoming U.S. Elections? (Economist)

An Indian court has sentenced a man to life in prison for a 2009 hijack scare in a passenger plane, saying it was adopting a “zero tolerance” approach to prevent future incidents that could endanger the lives of other passengers. And Ajmal Kasab is still not sentenced – Are we really tolerating about the real terrorists or what? (CNBC)

Ukraine this week held a deeply flawed election, in which the main opposition leader was jailed and the biggest gains went to a party of neo-fascists, who appear to have won 10 percent of the vote. A depressing outcome after the uprising to overturn a stolen election 8 years ago. (Bloomberg)

Who says that technology like twitter can not be used for any other reasons than to make comments about rivals. They also save lives – See how it happened with Sandy incoming (CNBC)

Will the expanding Chinese manufacturing numbers help their markets take a turn?

 

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Analysis: TATASTEEL

Today’s pick is [stockquote]TATASTEEL[/stockquote]. The last year saw the stock trading in a 350 to 500 range and is currently trading around the same price.

The stock has been in a down-trend since February this year, with a support near the 350 levels and resistance around 470.

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Oscillators RSI and CMO are at currently at 41 and -35 and are hovering close to the oversold territory.

MACD line and signal line are at a distance; the histogram levels are stagnant suggesting a short term consolidation.

The GMMA chart is not suggesting any directional move. The short-term lines and long-term lines are too close to each other.

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TATASTEEL’s average correlation of 0.73 with the Nifty is positive and quite strong. The stock tends to replicate the movements of Nifty quite closely. [stockquote]NIFTYBEES[/stockquote]

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TATASTEEL has a historical volatility in the range of 0.3 to 0.8. The scrip’s volatility is currently in the middle range and hence should not be a concern to the traders.

Looking at these technicals a short-term hold is suggested. For the long-term outlook of the scrip a decisive breakout above the trend-line will suggest a change in the current down-trend.

After coming out with a positive result in Q3, U.S. Steel expects a global slowdown in the metal demand for the Q4. Will it be the same scenario for the TATASTEEL for the coming quarter as well?

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