Author: shyam

Weekly Recap: Experience vs. Memory

world.2015-03-20.2015-03-27

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) -1.42%
CAC(FRA) -1.05%
UKX(GBR) -2.39%
NKY(JPN) -1.40%
SPX(USA) -2.43%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) -0.85%
INMEX(MEX) -1.38%
NGSEINDX(NGA) +4.19%
XU030(TUR) -2.11%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) -3.75%
SHCOMP(CHN) +2.04%
NIFTY(IND) -2.68%
INDEXCF(RUS) -3.51%
TOP40(ZAF) -1.96%

Commodities

Energy
Ethanol +0.20%
WTI Crude Oil +5.63%
Brent Crude Oil +2.21%
Natural Gas -4.59%
Heating Oil -0.01%
RBOB Gasoline +0.28%
Metals
Copper -0.36%
Gold 100oz +1.09%
Silver 5000oz +1.19%
Palladium -5.09%
Platinum +0.08%

Currencies

USDEUR:-0.58% USDJPY:-0.86%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) -0.45%
USDMXN(MEX) +1.29%
USDNGN(NGA) -0.10%
USDTRY(TUR) +1.33%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) +0.48%
USDCNY(CHN) +0.18%
USDINR(IND) -0.08%
USDRUB(RUS) -2.49%
USDZAR(ZAF) +0.06%
Agricultural
Cattle +2.56%
Corn +1.36%
Feeder Cattle +1.78%
Wheat -4.05%
Cotton +0.92%
Soybeans -0.46%
Sugar #11 -4.65%
White Sugar -1.91%
Coffee (Arabica) -3.53%
Coffee (Robusta) -0.66%
Lumber +0.28%
Soybean Meal -0.68%
Cocoa -1.29%
Lean Hogs +4.79%
Orange Juice +10.93%

Credit Indices

Index Change
Markit CDX EM +0.62%
Markit CDX NA HY +0.09%
Markit CDX NA IG +0.79%
Markit iTraxx Asia ex-Japan IG -1.54%
Markit iTraxx Australia -0.45%
Markit iTraxx Europe -1.36%
Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover -1.06%
Markit iTraxx Japan -1.24%
Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe -0.42%
Markit LCDX (Loan CDS) +0.00%
Markit MCDX (Municipal CDS) +1.48%
It was a sea of red ink in the markets this week. Oil gyrated and the US Dollar ended mixed.

Nifty Heatmap

CNX NIFTY.2015-03-20.2015-03-27

Index Returns

index performance.2015-03-20.2015-03-27

Sector Performance

sector performance.2015-03-20.2015-03-27

Advance Decline

advance.decline.line2.2015-03-20.2015-03-27

Market Cap Decile Performance

Decile Mkt. Cap. Adv/Decl
1 (micro) -12.20% 58/76
2 -8.87% 52/81
3 -7.74% 50/83
4 -7.73% 52/81
5 -6.92% 54/79
6 -6.81% 57/77
7 -5.57% 47/86
8 -5.34% 56/77
9 -3.95% 62/71
10 (mega) -3.40% 68/66
Stocks across the board got shellacked…

Top Winners and Losers

BPCL +3.10%
AUROPHARMA +3.97%
UPL +4.30%
PNB -9.89%
SRTRANSFIN -9.15%
BOSCHLTD -7.88%
Momentum names were hurt the most…

ETF Performance

GOLDBEES +1.61%
INFRABEES -1.04%
CPSEETF -2.44%
NIFTYBEES -2.71%
BANKBEES -3.15%
JUNIORBEES -3.24%
PSUBNKBEES -5.50%
PSU banks are yet to fully acknowledge the full extent of NPAs. Also, who is going to fill the holes in their balance-sheets?

Yield Curve

yield Curve.2015-03-20.2015-03-27

Bond Indices

Sub Index Change in YTM Total Return(%)
GSEC TB +0.35 +0.03%
GSEC SUB 1-3 +0.38 -0.33%
GSEC SUB 3-8 +0.12 -0.80%
GSEC SUB 8 +0.04 -0.54%
The long end of the curve came under a bit of pressure…

Investment Theme Performance

Equity Mutual Funds

Bond Mutual Funds

Thought to sum up the week

Our “experiencing selves” and our “remembering selves” perceive facts differently.

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Leaders and Laggards

Lagged correlations

Excess winter snow-fall in the Himalayas lead to floods in Bangladesh during spring. If we know that that there was excess snow-fall in the Himalayas this season, we can be better prepared to handle the floods four-months from now. This is the idea behind studying lagged correlations.

If we took a pair of sector indices and lagged their returns, can we find an index that “leads” an other and profit from it?

CNX BANK.CNX CONSUMPTION.monthly.lag

The chart above is called the cross-correlation plot. It shows that there are two lags, 5 and 9, where CNX BANK lags CONSUMPTION. A scatter plot shows how monthly-returns are correlated to each other across different lags and confirms the relationship:

CNX BANK.CNX CONSUMPTION.monthly.scatter

Finding

We found a number of index pairs that lead/follow one another. In addition to the CNX BANK and CNX CONSUMPTION indices above, CNX INFRA and CNX CONSUMPTION, CNX IT and CNX FINANCE, CNX CONSUMPTION and AUTO display this dynamic.

CNX INFRA.CNX CONSUMPTION.monthly.lag

CNX IT.CNX FINANCE.monthly.lag

CNX CONSUMPTION.AUTO.monthly.lag

Data mining warning

We cannot draw any conclusion from this “finding.” We mined 20 indices over 5 years to dig these nuggets out. The result is spurious. From a statistical point of view, there is no index that consistently leads or lags another.

Related: Should you care about monthly returns of the Nifty?

Weekly Recap: Luck

world.2015-03-13.2015-03-20

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) +1.16%
CAC(FRA) +1.54%
UKX(GBR) +4.18%
NKY(JPN) +1.59%
SPX(USA) +3.09%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) +0.31%
INMEX(MEX) -0.34%
NGSEINDX(NGA) -4.51%
XU030(TUR) +8.13%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) +7.21%
SHCOMP(CHN) +7.25%
NIFTY(IND) -0.89%
INDEXCF(RUS) +0.05%
TOP40(ZAF) +1.57%

Commodities

Energy
RBOB Gasoline +1.30%
Brent Crude Oil +0.34%
Ethanol +2.84%
Natural Gas +1.79%
Heating Oil +0.14%
WTI Crude Oil +3.02%
Metals
Copper +3.36%
Gold 100oz +2.84%
Silver 5000oz +7.74%
Platinum +1.95%
Palladium -2.08%

Currencies

USDEUR:-3.13% USDJPY:-1.03%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) -0.61%
USDMXN(MEX) -2.95%
USDNGN(NGA) +0.10%
USDTRY(TUR) -2.27%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) -0.74%
USDCNY(CHN) -0.87%
USDINR(IND) -0.79%
USDRUB(RUS) -4.89%
USDZAR(ZAF) -3.59%
Agricultural
Cocoa -2.31%
Feeder Cattle +1.07%
Lumber +3.09%
Wheat +4.38%
Soybean Meal -4.06%
White Sugar +1.27%
Cattle +2.99%
Corn +2.53%
Orange Juice +0.61%
Coffee (Arabica) +10.90%
Coffee (Robusta) +8.70%
Cotton +3.23%
Lean Hogs -5.21%
Soybeans -0.15%
Sugar #11 -0.55%

Credit Indices

Index Change
Markit CDX EM +0.29%
Markit CDX NA HY +0.29%
Markit CDX NA IG -1.59%
Markit iTraxx Asia ex-Japan IG -0.24%
Markit iTraxx Australia +0.39%
Markit iTraxx Europe +2.11%
Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover +12.07%
Markit iTraxx Japan -2.77%
Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe +1.53%
Markit LCDX (Loan CDS) -0.04%
Markit MCDX (Municipal CDS) -1.14%
The US Dollar got beat up on Fed’s re-assurance to the markets that it is in no hurry to raise rates. Precious metals rallied and oil caught a break. Most equity markets ended in the green except for India.

Index Returns

index performance.2015-03-13.2015-03-20

Market Cap Decile Performance

Decile Mkt. Cap. Adv/Decl
1 (micro) -5.00% 56/77
2 -4.91% 59/74
3 -4.09% 56/77
4 -2.81% 58/74
5 -4.43% 62/71
6 -3.76% 60/73
7 -3.01% 59/73
8 -1.63% 60/73
9 -0.96% 70/63
10 (mega) -1.39% 67/66
Mid- and small-cap stocks took it on the chin this week on the sudden realization that the (earnings) emperor has no clothes.

Top Winners and Losers

M&MFIN +3.04%
YESBANK +3.57%
GSKCONS +3.61%
JINDALSTEL -11.67%
RCOM -9.93%
BAJAJFINSV -8.07%
Is RCOM equity headed towards its intrinsic value of zero?

ETF Performance

JUNIORBEES -0.31%
GOLDBEES -0.44%
NIFTYBEES -0.57%
CPSEETF -0.66%
BANKBEES -0.83%
PSUBNKBEES -1.33%
INFRABEES -3.27%
No ETF in the green zone this week. In spite of the volatility, BANKBEES kept its losses less than a point.

Yield Curve

yield Curve.2015-03-13.2015-03-20

Bond Indices

Sub Index Change in YTM Total Return(%)
GSEC TB -0.14 +0.19%
GSEC SUB 1-3 -0.09 +0.47%
GSEC SUB 3-8 -0.19 +1.12%
GSEC SUB 8 -0.13 +1.32%
The long-end recovered a bid from last week’s tumble…

Investment Theme Performance

Equity Mutual Funds

Bond Mutual Funds

Thought to sum up the week

“Lucky” people are adept at creating and noticing chance opportunities (such as meeting an important businessman at a café), listen to their intuition, have positive expectations that create self-fulfilling prophesies, and have a relaxed and resilient attitude about life’s trials. Poor unlucky souls are more tense and anxious than lucky ones.

Source: How luck works

The MNC Fund Gravy Train

What are MNC Funds?

MNC funds invest in the Indian listed shares of foreign firms, like Bosch, Britannia and Colgate Palmolive. The funds are bench-marked against the CNX MNC Index.

The MNC index has out-performed pretty much every other market-cap index. We had discussed this previously and had pointed out that the UTI MNC Fund is decent place to get exposure to this asset class.

UTI vs Birla Sun Life

Thankfully, there are only two funds that track this asset class – one is the UTI MNC Fund and the other is the Birla Sun Life MNC Fund. Here’s how their growth schemes compare:

Birla Sun Life MNC fund vs. UTI MNC fund

 

Between 2006-07-03 and 2015-03-19, BSL MNC Fundhas returned a cumulative 478.61% with an IRR of 22.31% vs. UTI MNC Fund’s cumulative return of 427.17% and an IRR of 21.02%. (http://svz.bz/1Exk126)

The difference in performance between the two funds is de minimis when you consider that the period of comparison is almost eight years. The main thing to focus on here is that an IRR of ~22% is extremely hard to achieve in any asset class over that stretch of time.

MNC.funds.2015-3-20

Active Management

SYMBOL Birla Sunlife MNC Fund UTI MNC Fund CNX MNC
INGVYSYABK 8.97 3.01
ICRA 8.67
HONAUT 8.53 3.48
BAYERCROP 8.33
BOSCHLTD 5.99 7.19 9.22
GILLETTE 5.89 2.71
GLAXO 5.48 1.44 2.59
PFIZER 5.15 1.38
MARUTI 3.62 7.16 18.09
STERLINH 3.61
CRISIL 3.01 2.92
HINDUNILVR 2.74 4.21 24.37
CUMMINSIND 2.73 4.36 4.38
WABCOINDIA 2.47 0.32
ACC 1.96
BATAINDIA 1.65
HITACHIHOM 1.64
FAGBEARING 1.47
KANSAINER 1.45
COLPAL 1.39 1.33 5.02
PGHH 1.35 1.92
OFSS 1.15 2.43 2.62
SMLISUZU 1.15 0.12
AMBUJACEM 1.11 3.64 7.25
NESTLEIND 0.94 1.38
ALSTOMT&D 0.72 1.76
BLUEDART 0.71 0.58
SIEMENS 0.7 3.04 4.66
FMGOETZE 0.69
ITC 0.66
AIL 0.59 0.17
DISAQ 0.57
AKZOINDIA 0.53 1.6
FULFORD 0.52
ABB 0.49 2.51
SANOFI 0.46 1.41
ITDCEM 0.46 2.31
CASTROLIND 0.45 2.97 2.59
RANBAXY 0.36 0.58
SCHNEIDER 0.26
MPHASIS 0.07 2.33 1.2
EICHERMOT 6.28
BRITANNIA 4.17 4.84
MCDOWELL-N 2.53
SKFINDIA 2.47
MAHINDCIE 2.13
SSLT 1.95 7.96
INGERRAND 1.49
MONSANTO 1.13
TIMKEN 1.07
CLNINDIA 0.97
GSKCONS 0.9 2.69
AUTOAXLES 0.38
WHIRLPOOL 0.21
Both funds are actively managed. There is no “index-hugging” going on here. However, between the two, the Birla Sunlife fund significantly differs from the CNX MNC index.

Portfolio trajectories

Both have allowed their winners to run and have different positions that have worked out well for them. Here’s how the Birla Sunlife Fund looks like:

And this is how the UTI Fund looks like:

The View

You will do well to have either fund in your portfolio. But given the narrow focus of these funds, these should complement your portfolio rather than dominate it. If you have any questions, feel free to get in touch!