Author: shyam

Monthly Recap: Robot in the China store?

world.2015-2-27.2015-3-31

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) +4.96%
CAC(FRA) +2.48%
UKX(GBR) -1.63%
NKY(JPN) +3.39%
SPX(USA) -2.02%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) +0.11%
INMEX(MEX) -0.19%
NGSEINDX(NGA) +18.68%
XU030(TUR) -2.85%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) +2.41%
SHCOMP(CHN) +16.72%
NIFTY(IND) -2.92%
INDEXCF(RUS) -4.43%
TOP40(ZAF) -2.36%

Commodities

Energy
Brent Crude Oil -10.09%
WTI Crude Oil +1.01%
Heating Oil -23.24%
Ethanol +9.68%
Natural Gas -0.59%
RBOB Gasoline -0.11%
Metals
Palladium -8.72%
Silver 5000oz +0.60%
Platinum -2.66%
Gold 100oz -1.21%
Copper +1.48%

Currencies

USDEUR:+2.88% USDJPY:-0.02%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) +0.63%
USDMXN(MEX) +0.50%
USDNGN(NGA) -1.89%
USDTRY(TUR) +3.30%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) +9.03%
USDCNY(CHN) -1.26%
USDINR(IND) +1.07%
USDRUB(RUS) -8.43%
USDZAR(ZAF) +2.31%
Agricultural
Corn +0.39%
Cotton -0.53%
Sugar #11 -8.55%
Wheat +3.22%
Coffee (Arabica) +2.84%
Coffee (Robusta) -5.17%
White Sugar -1.21%
Cattle +1.89%
Cocoa -4.76%
Lean Hogs -6.81%
Lumber -6.01%
Soybeans -4.13%
Feeder Cattle +9.48%
Orange Juice +2.60%
Soybean Meal -7.10%

Credit Indices

Index Change
Markit CDX EM -0.40%
Markit CDX NA IG +2.83%
Markit iTraxx Asia ex-Japan IG +1.68%
Markit iTraxx Australia -3.30%
Markit iTraxx Europe +1.27%
Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover +3.62%
Markit iTraxx Japan -7.25%
Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe -0.63%
Markit LCDX (Loan CDS) -0.10%
Markit MCDX (Municipal CDS) +3.28%
The Shanghai stock market was on fire this month while Europe was enjoying QE sugar highs. Nifty got dinged early on but recovered towards the end of the month.

Index Returns

index performance.2015-2-27.2015-3-31

Sector Performance

sector performance.2015-2-27.2015-3-31

Advance Decline

advance.decline.line2.2015-2-27.2015-3-31

Market Cap Decile Performance

Decile Mkt. Cap. Adv/Decl
1 (micro) -13.05% 64/69
2 -11.54% 52/81
3 -10.26% 47/86
4 -5.80% 62/71
5 -6.35% 57/75
6 -4.82% 55/78
7 -2.37% 66/67
8 -0.22% 76/57
9 +0.71% 67/66
10 (mega) -1.25% 68/65
Red ink across the board with small caps hit exceptionally hard…

Top Winners and Losers

SUNPHARMA +16.50%
AUROPHARMA +18.24%
IDEA +18.90%
JINDALSTEL -19.11%
ITC -17.23%
BANKINDIA -16.87%
Pharma broadly out-performed the rest…

ETF Performance

INFRABEES +0.77%
GOLDBEES -1.55%
JUNIORBEES -1.92%
CPSEETF -2.89%
NIFTYBEES -4.29%
BANKBEES -5.23%
PSUBNKBEES -9.61%
PSU banks – have they finally found a bottom?

Yield Curve

yield Curve.2015-2-27.2015-3-31

Interbank lending rates

mibor.30days.2015-3-31

Bond Indices

Sub Index Change in YTM Total Return(%)
GSEC TB -0.16 +0.73%
GSEC SUB 1-3 +0.05 +0.47%
GSEC SUB 3-8 +0.00 +0.87%
GSEC SUB 8 -0.01 +0.29%
Almost motionless…

Investment Theme Performance

Equity Mutual Funds

Bond Mutual Funds

Something to think about

China is letting low-cost production shift out of the country and is focusing instead on capital-intensive industries. Chinese labor costs have soared, undermining the calculus that brought all those jobs to China in the first place, and new robot technology is cheaper and easier to deploy than ever before.

But, if everybody has access to the same technology, why manufacture in China and pay shipping?

Source: WSJ

Quarterly Recap: January-March 2015

world.2014-12-31.2015-3-31

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) +22.03%
CAC(FRA) +17.81%
UKX(GBR) +3.15%
NKY(JPN) +9.07%
SPX(USA) -0.39%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) +4.42%
INMEX(MEX) +1.58%
NGSEINDX(NGA) -8.38%
XU030(TUR) -6.67%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) +2.29%
SHCOMP(CHN) +17.47%
NIFTY(IND) +2.28%
INDEXCF(RUS) +16.44%
TOP40(ZAF) +4.66%

Commodities

Energy
Natural Gas -10.56%
RBOB Gasoline +23.79%
Brent Crude Oil -3.03%
Ethanol -7.64%
Heating Oil -8.72%
WTI Crude Oil -10.42%
Metals
Gold 100oz -0.07%
Palladium -7.66%
Platinum -5.79%
Silver 5000oz +5.73%
Copper -3.17%

Currencies

USDEUR:+12.23% USDJPY:-0.20%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) +5.09%
USDMXN(MEX) +3.29%
USDNGN(NGA) +8.49%
USDTRY(TUR) +10.93%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) +20.28%
USDCNY(CHN) -0.15%
USDINR(IND) -0.87%
USDRUB(RUS) +0.00%
USDZAR(ZAF) +4.56%
Agricultural
Cocoa -3.70%
Lean Hogs -23.73%
Lumber -16.98%
Soybean Meal -9.07%
Cattle -2.64%
Coffee (Arabica) -21.60%
Corn -5.31%
Feeder Cattle -0.42%
Orange Juice -11.80%
Sugar #11 -17.63%
White Sugar -9.27%
Coffee (Robusta) -10.31%
Cotton +3.69%
Soybeans -3.67%
Wheat -12.19%

Credit Indices

Index Change
Markit CDX EM -2.01%
Markit CDX NA HY +1.59%
Markit CDX NA IG -1.99%
Markit iTraxx Asia ex-Japan IG -2.45%
Markit iTraxx Australia -11.70%
Markit iTraxx Europe -12.30%
Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover -79.11%
Markit iTraxx Japan -13.85%
Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe -4.07%
Markit LCDX (Loan CDS) +0.17%
Markit MCDX (Municipal CDS) +6.37%
The Nifty managed to squeeze out a dribble of green but was nowhere near the best performing market Germany that clocked in a QE induced +22.03% whopper.

Index Returns

index performance.2014-12-31.2015-3-31

Advance Decline

advance.decline.line2.2014-12-31.2015-3-31

Market Cap Decile Performance

Decile Mkt. Cap. Adv/Decl
1 (micro) -16.75% 60/74
2 -9.15% 54/79
3 -8.44% 55/78
4 -5.13% 55/78
5 -2.03% 52/81
6 +1.01% 65/68
7 +6.19% 69/64
8 +6.27% 76/57
9 +5.97% 72/61
10 (mega) +5.01% 68/66
Large-caps out-performed small-caps.

Top Winners and Losers

BHARATFORG +35.22%
LUPIN +40.65%
SIEMENS +53.97%
BANKINDIA -35.11%
UNIONBANK -34.63%
PNB -34.09%
PSU banks got rightfully pummeled. You know shit is bad when government employees stage a dharna on NPAs.

ETF Performance

INFRABEES +9.96%
JUNIORBEES +4.03%
NIFTYBEES +1.43%
GOLDBEES -2.65%
CPSEETF -3.16%
BANKBEES -4.48%
PSUBNKBEES -19.79%
Infrastructure was a surprise winner…

Yield Curve

yield Curve.2014-12-31.2015-3-31

Bond Indices

Sub Index Change in YTM Total Return(%)
GSEC TB -0.30 +2.03%
GSEC SUB 1-3 -0.53 +1.43%
GSEC SUB 3-8 -0.10 +2.45%
GSEC SUB 8 -0.19 +2.27%
Rate cuts and lower inflation gave bonds a boost…

Investment Theme Performance

Momentum worked, low volatility worked better. High beta was left behind. Quality-to-price out-performed midcaps…

Equity Mutual Funds

Bond Mutual Funds

Refactored Indices

Housekeeping

A number of cool things happened on StockViz this quarter:

  1. We released our Android app. It is plain torture to develop. Hope you find it useful.
  2. We moved our website to SSL to ensure that your browsing is encrypted.
  3. We have a tax report that our investors will find useful during filing time. We will soon have tools that will optimize your trades with taxes in mind.

Weekly Recap: Experience vs. Memory

world.2015-03-20.2015-03-27

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) -1.42%
CAC(FRA) -1.05%
UKX(GBR) -2.39%
NKY(JPN) -1.40%
SPX(USA) -2.43%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) -0.85%
INMEX(MEX) -1.38%
NGSEINDX(NGA) +4.19%
XU030(TUR) -2.11%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) -3.75%
SHCOMP(CHN) +2.04%
NIFTY(IND) -2.68%
INDEXCF(RUS) -3.51%
TOP40(ZAF) -1.96%

Commodities

Energy
Ethanol +0.20%
WTI Crude Oil +5.63%
Brent Crude Oil +2.21%
Natural Gas -4.59%
Heating Oil -0.01%
RBOB Gasoline +0.28%
Metals
Copper -0.36%
Gold 100oz +1.09%
Silver 5000oz +1.19%
Palladium -5.09%
Platinum +0.08%

Currencies

USDEUR:-0.58% USDJPY:-0.86%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) -0.45%
USDMXN(MEX) +1.29%
USDNGN(NGA) -0.10%
USDTRY(TUR) +1.33%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) +0.48%
USDCNY(CHN) +0.18%
USDINR(IND) -0.08%
USDRUB(RUS) -2.49%
USDZAR(ZAF) +0.06%
Agricultural
Cattle +2.56%
Corn +1.36%
Feeder Cattle +1.78%
Wheat -4.05%
Cotton +0.92%
Soybeans -0.46%
Sugar #11 -4.65%
White Sugar -1.91%
Coffee (Arabica) -3.53%
Coffee (Robusta) -0.66%
Lumber +0.28%
Soybean Meal -0.68%
Cocoa -1.29%
Lean Hogs +4.79%
Orange Juice +10.93%

Credit Indices

Index Change
Markit CDX EM +0.62%
Markit CDX NA HY +0.09%
Markit CDX NA IG +0.79%
Markit iTraxx Asia ex-Japan IG -1.54%
Markit iTraxx Australia -0.45%
Markit iTraxx Europe -1.36%
Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover -1.06%
Markit iTraxx Japan -1.24%
Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe -0.42%
Markit LCDX (Loan CDS) +0.00%
Markit MCDX (Municipal CDS) +1.48%
It was a sea of red ink in the markets this week. Oil gyrated and the US Dollar ended mixed.

Nifty Heatmap

CNX NIFTY.2015-03-20.2015-03-27

Index Returns

index performance.2015-03-20.2015-03-27

Sector Performance

sector performance.2015-03-20.2015-03-27

Advance Decline

advance.decline.line2.2015-03-20.2015-03-27

Market Cap Decile Performance

Decile Mkt. Cap. Adv/Decl
1 (micro) -12.20% 58/76
2 -8.87% 52/81
3 -7.74% 50/83
4 -7.73% 52/81
5 -6.92% 54/79
6 -6.81% 57/77
7 -5.57% 47/86
8 -5.34% 56/77
9 -3.95% 62/71
10 (mega) -3.40% 68/66
Stocks across the board got shellacked…

Top Winners and Losers

BPCL +3.10%
AUROPHARMA +3.97%
UPL +4.30%
PNB -9.89%
SRTRANSFIN -9.15%
BOSCHLTD -7.88%
Momentum names were hurt the most…

ETF Performance

GOLDBEES +1.61%
INFRABEES -1.04%
CPSEETF -2.44%
NIFTYBEES -2.71%
BANKBEES -3.15%
JUNIORBEES -3.24%
PSUBNKBEES -5.50%
PSU banks are yet to fully acknowledge the full extent of NPAs. Also, who is going to fill the holes in their balance-sheets?

Yield Curve

yield Curve.2015-03-20.2015-03-27

Bond Indices

Sub Index Change in YTM Total Return(%)
GSEC TB +0.35 +0.03%
GSEC SUB 1-3 +0.38 -0.33%
GSEC SUB 3-8 +0.12 -0.80%
GSEC SUB 8 +0.04 -0.54%
The long end of the curve came under a bit of pressure…

Investment Theme Performance

Equity Mutual Funds

Bond Mutual Funds

Thought to sum up the week

Our “experiencing selves” and our “remembering selves” perceive facts differently.

StockViz is now encrypted

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Leaders and Laggards

Lagged correlations

Excess winter snow-fall in the Himalayas lead to floods in Bangladesh during spring. If we know that that there was excess snow-fall in the Himalayas this season, we can be better prepared to handle the floods four-months from now. This is the idea behind studying lagged correlations.

If we took a pair of sector indices and lagged their returns, can we find an index that “leads” an other and profit from it?

CNX BANK.CNX CONSUMPTION.monthly.lag

The chart above is called the cross-correlation plot. It shows that there are two lags, 5 and 9, where CNX BANK lags CONSUMPTION. A scatter plot shows how monthly-returns are correlated to each other across different lags and confirms the relationship:

CNX BANK.CNX CONSUMPTION.monthly.scatter

Finding

We found a number of index pairs that lead/follow one another. In addition to the CNX BANK and CNX CONSUMPTION indices above, CNX INFRA and CNX CONSUMPTION, CNX IT and CNX FINANCE, CNX CONSUMPTION and AUTO display this dynamic.

CNX INFRA.CNX CONSUMPTION.monthly.lag

CNX IT.CNX FINANCE.monthly.lag

CNX CONSUMPTION.AUTO.monthly.lag

Data mining warning

We cannot draw any conclusion from this “finding.” We mined 20 indices over 5 years to dig these nuggets out. The result is spurious. From a statistical point of view, there is no index that consistently leads or lags another.

Related: Should you care about monthly returns of the Nifty?