Author: shyam

Weekly Recap: Leadering

world.2015-03-05.2015-03-13

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) +3.46%
CAC(FRA) +0.95%
UKX(GBR) -3.17%
NKY(JPN) +2.68%
SPX(USA) -2.10%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) -0.45%
INMEX(MEX) +1.43%
NGSEINDX(NGA) +1.17%
XU030(TUR) -5.02%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) -3.26%
SHCOMP(CHN) +3.83%
NIFTY(IND) -3.24%
INDEXCF(RUS) -7.54%
TOP40(ZAF) -2.62%

Commodities

Energy
Heating Oil -9.11%
RBOB Gasoline -6.43%
WTI Crude Oil -12.16%
Brent Crude Oil -10.01%
Ethanol -5.40%
Natural Gas -3.75%
Metals
Gold 100oz -4.17%
Palladium -3.70%
Platinum -5.31%
Copper +0.75%
Silver 5000oz -3.70%

Currencies

USDEUR:+4.98% USDJPY:+1.01%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) +1.66%
USDMXN(MEX) +1.68%
USDNGN(NGA) -0.06%
USDTRY(TUR) +0.99%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) +7.61%
USDCNY(CHN) -0.12%
USDINR(IND) +1.28%
USDRUB(RUS) +2.23%
USDZAR(ZAF) +5.29%
Agricultural
Coffee (Robusta) -9.60%
Cotton -4.92%
Soybean Meal +0.75%
Soybeans -0.77%
Cattle -0.03%
Lumber -5.63%
Orange Juice -3.39%
Sugar #11 -4.84%
Wheat +5.67%
Coffee (Arabica) -3.41%
Lean Hogs -7.64%
Cocoa -2.97%
Corn -2.21%
Feeder Cattle +3.22%
White Sugar -2.66%

Credit Indices

Index Change
Markit CDX EM -1.16%
Markit CDX NA HY -0.13%
Markit CDX NA IG +3.42%
Markit iTraxx Asia ex-Japan IG +6.08%
Markit iTraxx Australia +1.60%
Markit iTraxx Europe -0.90%
Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover -9.29%
Markit iTraxx Japan -0.06%
Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe -2.06%
Markit LCDX (Loan CDS) -0.02%
Markit MCDX (Municipal CDS) +2.18%
The markets threw a taper tantrum with rising rates in the US almost a certainty this year.
QE pushed the Euro down to ~parity vs. the US Dollar.
It was a bad week for the commodity complex as well as the rise in USD pummeled pretty much everything.

Nifty Heatmap

CNX NIFTY.2015-03-05.2015-03-13

Index Returns

index performance.2015-03-05.2015-03-13

Sector Performance

sector performance.2015-03-05.2015-03-13

Advance Decline

advance.decline.line2.2015-03-05.2015-03-13

Market Cap Decile Performance

Decile Mkt. Cap. Adv/Decl
1 (micro) -4.85% 66/68
2 -2.91% 61/72
3 -1.30% 64/69
4 -0.80% 67/67
5 +0.51% 64/69
6 -0.18% 62/71
7 +1.14% 68/66
8 +0.52% 69/64
9 +0.37% 66/67
10 (mega) -1.01% 62/72
A bit of green in the belly of the beast but red in the large- and small-cap zones.

Top Winners and Losers

CONCOR +12.25%
BHARTIARTL +15.05%
IDEA +21.36%
HINDALCO -11.07%
LICHSGFIN -9.69%
ADANIENT -9.34%
Not a good week for high-beta. Telecom stocks rallied…

ETF Performance

INFRABEES +3.79%
JUNIORBEES -0.43%
CPSEETF -1.34%
GOLDBEES -2.67%
NIFTYBEES -3.13%
PSUBNKBEES -3.71%
BANKBEES -4.79%
Banks and financials got beat up pretty bad…

Yield Curve

yield Curve.2015-03-05.2015-03-13

Bond Indices

Sub Index Change in YTM Total Return(%)
GSEC TB -0.05 +0.19%
GSEC SUB 1-3 +0.20 +0.04%
GSEC SUB 3-8 +0.27 -0.76%
GSEC SUB 8 +0.18 -1.32%
The long-end of the curve wilted – given the rate of revisions in GDP estimates, our policy makers are more or less flying blind. Not a comforting thought if you are a bond investor.

Investment Theme Performance

Equity Mutual Funds

Bond Mutual Funds

Thought for the weekend

Human leadership is almost entirely leadering. It is:
90% flying starling bullshit that just looks meaningful,
9% poorly calibrated goose-like navigational inertia reflecting ancient realities that have almost certainly shifted, and
1% lion-like roaring and posturing by a charismatic few.

Leaders like to call the three elements agility, mission and vision.

Source: The Art of Agile Leadership

Index Update 07.03.2015

Momentum

We run our proprietary momentum scoring algorithm on indices just like we do on stocks. You can use the momentum scores of sub-indices to get a sense for which sectors have the wind on their backs and those that are facing headwinds.

Traders can pick their longs in sectors with high short-term momentum and their shorts in sectors with low momentum. Investors can use the longer lookback scores to position themselves using our re-factored index Themes.

Here are the best and the worst sub-indices:

index.momentum.best.365.2015-03-05

index.momentum.worst.365.2015-03-05

index.momentum.best.50.2015-03-05

index.momentum.worst.50.2015-03-05

Refactored Index Performance

50-day performance, from December 23, 2014 through March 04, 2015:

Weekly Recap: Theoretical, Practical, Poetical

world.2015-02-28.2015-03-05

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) +1.31%
CAC(FRA) +0.26%
UKX(GBR) -0.50%
NKY(JPN) +0.92%
SPX(USA) -1.58%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) +1.18%
INMEX(MEX) -1.69%
NGSEINDX(NGA) +3.14%
XU030(TUR) -4.96%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) -3.11%
SHCOMP(CHN) -2.09%
NIFTY(IND) +0.40%
INDEXCF(RUS) -1.73%
TOP40(ZAF) +0.16%

Commodities

Energy
Brent Crude Oil -4.55%
WTI Crude Oil +0.53%
Natural Gas +5.13%
Heating Oil -4.87%
RBOB Gasoline -4.74%
Ethanol +0.14%
Metals
Gold 100oz -4.11%
Platinum -2.33%
Silver 5000oz -3.64%
Copper -2.95%
Palladium +0.12%

Currencies

USDEUR:+3.27% USDJPY:+1.00%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) +0.34%
USDMXN(MEX) +3.67%
USDNGN(NGA) -1.42%
USDTRY(TUR) +4.60%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) +7.84%
USDCNY(CHN) -0.10%
USDINR(IND) +0.54%
USDRUB(RUS) -2.14%
USDZAR(ZAF) +3.30%
Agricultural
Cocoa -0.29%
Corn -0.91%
White Sugar +0.64%
Coffee (Arabica) -4.00%
Orange Juice -0.99%
Soybean Meal -4.37%
Soybeans -4.83%
Sugar #11 -3.31%
Cattle +1.93%
Feeder Cattle +3.76%
Lean Hogs -2.39%
Coffee (Robusta) -2.03%
Cotton -1.98%
Lumber -4.72%
Wheat -5.37%

Credit Indices

Index Change
Markit CDX EM -0.35%
Markit CDX NA IG +0.41%
Markit iTraxx Asia ex-Japan IG +2.92%
Markit iTraxx Australia -0.54%
Markit iTraxx Europe +0.53%
Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover +1.62%
Markit iTraxx Japan -0.27%
Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe -0.48%
Markit LCDX (Loan CDS) -0.04%
Markit MCDX (Municipal CDS) +1.08%
The Nifty barely managed to keep its head above water this week.
The ECB finally announced the details of its QE program and it looks like it fell short of what the market expected.

Nifty Heatmap

CNX NIFTY.2015-02-28.2015-03-05

Index Returns

index performance.2015-02-28.2015-03-05

Sector Performance

sector performance.2015-02-28.2015-03-05

Advance Decline

advance.decline.line2.2015-02-28.2015-03-05

Market Cap Decile Performance

Decile Mkt. Cap. Adv/Decl
1 (micro) -0.78% 64/68
2 +0.39% 70/62
3 +0.02% 68/65
4 +0.53% 63/68
5 +0.01% 64/68
6 +0.39% 71/61
7 +1.16% 70/63
8 +0.99% 62/69
9 +1.12% 66/66
10 (mega) +1.09% 73/60
Market cap performance was encouraging…

Top Winners and Losers

CIPLA +8.42%
BAJAJFINSV +8.65%
SUNPHARMA +14.02%
NMDC -8.45%
COALINDIA -7.62%
CAIRN -6.12%
Pharma was on fire this week…

ETF Performance

JUNIORBEES +1.39%
INFRABEES +0.90%
GOLDBEES +0.71%
BANKBEES +0.19%
NIFTYBEES +0.16%
CPSEETF -0.84%
PSUBNKBEES -0.99%
The Juniors outperformed the Nifty…

Yield Curve

yield Curve.2015-02-27.2015-03-05

Bond Indices

Sub Index Change in YTM Total Return(%)
GSEC TB +0.00 +0.13%
GSEC SUB 1-3 -0.28 -0.18%
GSEC SUB 3-8 -0.13 +0.82%
GSEC SUB 8 -0.09 +0.72%
The rate cut was more of a shock than a surprise…

Equity Mutual Funds

Bond Mutual Funds

Thought for the weekend

Aristotle talked about three kinds of work: theoretical, practical, and poetical.
The first searches for truth.
The second is practical with an objective around action.
The third, however, is lost in our modern culture.

Source: Produce More by Removing More

Holi Bell 06.03.2015

Your world at 9am

world.2015-03-06

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) +1.00%
CAC(FRA) +0.94%
UKX(GBR) +0.61%
NKY(JPN) +1.00%
SPX(USA) +0.12%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) +0.22%
INMEX(MEX) +0.79%
NGSEINDX(NGA) -0.82%
XU030(TUR) -1.85%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) -0.20%
SHCOMP(CHN) +0.13%
NIFTY(IND) +0.17%
INDEXCF(RUS) +0.07%
TOP40(ZAF) +0.77%

Commodities

Energy
Brent Crude Oil +0.86%
Ethanol +0.00%
Heating Oil +0.54%
Natural Gas -0.32%
RBOB Gasoline +0.66%
WTI Crude Oil +0.61%
Metals
Copper +0.00%
Gold 100oz +0.00%
Palladium +0.42%
Platinum +0.07%
Silver 5000oz +0.24%

Currencies

USDEUR:+0.06% USDJPY:-0.08%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) +0.03%
USDMXN(MEX) -0.02%
USDNGN(NGA) +0.00%
USDTRY(TUR) -0.08%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) +0.78%
USDCNY(CHN) -0.03%
USDINR(IND) -0.15%
USDRUB(RUS) -0.28%
USDZAR(ZAF) -0.23%
Agricultural
Cattle +0.00%
Cocoa +0.00%
Coffee (Arabica) -0.48%
Coffee (Robusta) +0.00%
Corn -0.26%
Cotton +0.00%
Feeder Cattle +0.00%
Lean Hogs +0.00%
Lumber +0.00%
Orange Juice +0.00%
Soybean Meal -0.12%
Soybeans +0.10%
Sugar #11 +0.60%
Wheat +0.00%
White Sugar +0.00%

Must reads

ECB will buy bonds that carry a negative yield, as long as that doesn’t fall below the rate it charges banks on deposits, which is -0.20%. (WSJ)

Infosys and Wipro in fight to renew Rs 12,000 crore outsourcing contract that will expire this year. Last time around, HCL Tech ate their lunch. (ET) [stockquote]HCLTECH[/stockquote] [stockquote]INFY[/stockquote] [stockquote]WIPRO[/stockquote]

Will we soon have FDI in retail? (LiveMint)

Indian GDP numbers: did bureaucrats take something that was not broken and fix it until it was? (FT)

EPFO will once again consider diversifying its investment pattern to park 5-15% of its corpus in equity and infrastructure trusts. (ET)

Goldman: “The twin forces of regulation and technology are opening the door for an expanding class of competitors to capture profit pools long controlled by banks.” (FT)

Good luck and have a nice long weekend!