Tag: weekly

Correlation Update 13.06.2015

Nifty one year daily return correlations

Nifty one year daily return correlations

Nifty one month daily return correlations

Nifty one month daily return correlations

Bank Nifty one year daily return correlations

Bank Nifty one year daily return correlations

Bank Nifty one month daily return correlations

Bank Nifty one month daily return correlations

Midcap one year daily return correlations

Midcap one year daily return correlations

Midcap one month daily return correlations

Midcap one month daily return correlations

A lot of thick blue squares mean that positive correlations are high. Red squares mean negative correlations are high. Whites are the doldrums.

Weekly Recap: Satisficers vs. Maximizers

world.2015-05-29.2015-06-05

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) -1.90%
CAC(FRA) -1.74%
UKX(GBR) -2.57%
NKY(JPN) -0.50%
SPX(USA) -0.92%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) -2.22%
INMEX(MEX) -0.47%
NGSEINDX(NGA) -1.88%
XU030(TUR) -0.74%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) -0.84%
SHCOMP(CHN) +8.92%
NIFTY(IND) -3.78%
INDEXCF(RUS) +2.66%
TOP40(ZAF) -0.63%

Commodities

Energy
RBOB Gasoline -3.14%
Brent Crude Oil -3.70%
Ethanol +0.45%
Heating Oil -4.31%
Natural Gas -1.63%
WTI Crude Oil -2.76%
Metals
Copper -1.09%
Gold 100oz -1.74%
Palladium -3.29%
Silver 5000oz -3.59%
Platinum -1.44%

Currencies

USDEUR:-1.13% USDJPY:+1.34%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) +0.50%
USDMXN(MEX) +2.09%
USDNGN(NGA) -0.17%
USDTRY(TUR) -0.06%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) -1.37%
USDCNY(CHN) +0.09%
USDINR(IND) -0.11%
USDRUB(RUS) +7.20%
USDZAR(ZAF) +3.61%
Agricultural
Cattle +0.36%
Cocoa -0.05%
Coffee (Arabica) +6.25%
Coffee (Robusta) +5.63%
Corn +2.49%
Cotton -0.31%
Orange Juice +2.32%
Soybean Meal -0.36%
Soybeans +0.59%
Wheat +8.48%
White Sugar +0.26%
Feeder Cattle -0.40%
Lean Hogs -2.47%
Lumber +6.70%
Sugar #11 +0.58%

Credit Indices

Index Change
Markit CDX EM -0.43%
Markit CDX NA HY -0.19%
Markit CDX NA IG +1.22%
Markit iTraxx Asia ex-Japan IG +0.08%
Markit iTraxx Australia -0.48%
Markit iTraxx Europe +1.11%
Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover +9.04%
Markit iTraxx Japan +2.79%
Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe -0.09%
Markit LCDX (Loan CDS) -0.02%
Markit MCDX (Municipal CDS) -1.87%

Nifty Heatmap

CNX NIFTY.2015-05-29.2015-06-05

Index Returns

For a deeper dive into indices, check out our weekly Index Update.
index performance.2015-05-29.2015-06-05

Sector Performance

sector performance.2015-05-29.2015-06-05

Advance Decline

advance.decline.line2.2015-05-29.2015-06-05

Market Cap Decile Performance

Decile Mkt. Cap. Adv/Decl
1 (micro) -6.46% 61/68
2 -4.39% 51/78
3 -7.87% 53/76
4 -5.49% 48/81
5 -3.90% 56/73
6 -5.88% 54/75
7 -3.66% 58/71
8 -3.13% 53/76
9 -3.46% 60/69
10 (mega) -2.78% 63/66
Looks like a page out of the pulp-fiction novel: “Blood Bath and Beyond…”

Top Winners and Losers

ZEEL +3.97%
BRITANNIA +6.47%
GODREJCP +6.79%
RPOWER -15.33%
SUNPHARMA -12.23%
RCOM -11.83%
Markets found some solace in biscuits and shampoo…

ETF Performance

INFRABEES +0.14%
GOLDBEES -0.63%
CPSEETF -2.14%
JUNIORBEES -2.45%
NIFTYBEES -3.27%
BANKBEES -6.22%
PSUBNKBEES -7.48%
Banks went from boost to woost…

Yield Curve

yield Curve.2015-05-29.2015-06-05

Bond Indices

Sub Index Change in YTM Total Return(%)
GSEC TB +0.33 +0.06%
GSEC SUB 1-3 +0.37 -0.38%
GSEC SUB 3-8 +0.20 -0.95%
GSEC SUB 8 -0.06 +0.40%
This is totally mind-blasting: yields went up on a week when rates were cut.

Investment Theme Performance

Equity Mutual Funds

Bond Mutual Funds

Thought for the weekend

Psychology professor Barry Schwartz, author of The Paradox of Choice, divided us into two types of people: “satisficers” (those who satisfy and then suffice) and “maximizers,” who seek out the best.

Thanks to smartphones and the Internet, our options are unlimited, whether it’s a retail item or a romantic possibility. We have all become maximizers.

While we may think we know what we want, we’re often wrong.

Source: Modern Romance

Index Update 06.06.2015

MOMENTUM

We run our proprietary momentum scoring algorithm on indices just like we do on stocks. You can use the momentum scores of sub-indices to get a sense for which sectors have the wind on their backs and those that are facing headwinds.

Traders can pick their longs in sectors with high short-term momentum and their shorts in sectors with low momentum. Investors can use the longer lookback scores to position themselves using our re-factored index Themes.

You can see how the momentum algorithm has performed on individual stocks here.

Here are the best and the worst sub-indices:

index momentum best 365 2015-06-05 png

index momentum best 50 2015-06-05 png

index momentum worst 365 2015-06-05 png

index momentum worst 50 2015-06-05 png

Refactored Index Performance

50-day performance, from March 24, 2015 through June 05, 2015:

Trend Model Summary

Index Signal % From Peak Day of Peak
CNX AUTO SHORT
11.07
2015-Jan-27
CNX BANK SHORT
14.62
2015-Jan-27
CNX ENERGY SHORT
29.22
2008-Jan-14
CNX FMCG SHORT
13.62
2015-Feb-25
CNX INFRA SHORT
49.05
2008-Jan-09
CNX IT SHORT
88.18
2000-Feb-21
CNX MEDIA SHORT
27.38
2008-Jan-04
CNX METAL SHORT
57.85
2008-Jan-04
CNX MNC SHORT
6.54
2015-Mar-12
CNX NIFTY SHORT
9.80
2015-Mar-03
CNX PHARMA SHORT
15.29
2015-Apr-08
CNX PSE SHORT
25.24
2008-Jan-04
CNX REALTY SHORT
90.30
2008-Jan-14
Banks and pharma down more than 15% from its April peak, Nifty 10% and MNC 7%…

Correlation Update 06.06.2015

Nifty one year daily return correlations

Nifty one year daily return correlations

Nifty one month daily return correlations

Nifty one month daily return correlations

Bank Nifty one year daily return correlations

Bank Nifty one year daily return correlations

Bank Nifty one month daily return correlations

Bank Nifty one month daily return correlations

Midcap one year daily return correlations

Midcap one year daily return correlations

Midcap one month daily return correlations

Midcap one month daily return correlations

A lot of thick blue squares mean that positive correlations are high. Red squares mean negative correlations are high. Whites are the doldrums.

Weekly Recap: Only Idiots Pay Taxes in India

world.2015-05-22.2015-05-29

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) -3.40%
CAC(FRA) -2.62%
UKX(GBR) -0.67%
NKY(JPN) +1.47%
SPX(USA) -1.06%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) -1.86%
INMEX(MEX) -0.67%
NGSEINDX(NGA) +0.11%
XU030(TUR) -3.68%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) -2.58%
SHCOMP(CHN) -0.98%
NIFTY(IND) -0.30%
INDEXCF(RUS) -3.39%
TOP40(ZAF) -3.34%

Commodities

Energy
Brent Crude Oil +0.20%
Ethanol -1.97%
Heating Oil -0.39%
Natural Gas -8.87%
RBOB Gasoline +0.56%
WTI Crude Oil +0.75%
Metals
Gold 100oz -1.28%
Copper -2.47%
Palladium -0.91%
Platinum -3.00%
Silver 5000oz -2.34%

Currencies

USDEUR:+0.14% USDJPY:+2.12%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) +0.50%
USDMXN(MEX) +0.59%
USDNGN(NGA) -0.21%
USDTRY(TUR) +2.47%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) +3.05%
USDCNY(CHN) +0.00%
USDINR(IND) +0.48%
USDRUB(RUS) +4.62%
USDZAR(ZAF) +2.16%
Agricultural
Coffee (Arabica) -0.51%
Orange Juice -3.43%
Cocoa -0.09%
Coffee (Robusta) -0.85%
Cotton +1.58%
Lean Hogs +0.12%
Sugar #11 -2.60%
Wheat -7.09%
Corn -2.43%
Feeder Cattle +1.33%
Cattle +0.16%
Lumber -0.04%
Soybean Meal +0.72%
Soybeans +1.00%
White Sugar -0.43%

Credit Indices

Index Change
Markit CDX EM -0.36%
Markit CDX NA HY +0.04%
Markit CDX NA IG -0.54%
Markit iTraxx Asia ex-Japan IG +1.53%
Markit iTraxx Australia +0.90%
Markit iTraxx Europe +2.70%
Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover +4.86%
Markit iTraxx Japan +0.36%
Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe +0.13%
Markit LCDX (Loan CDS) +0.00%
Markit MCDX (Municipal CDS) -0.59%
This was not a good week for equity markets. The dollar rallied after taking a spring break and credit spreads widened.

Nifty Heatmap

CNX NIFTY.2015-05-22.2015-05-29

Index Returns

index performance.2015-05-22.2015-05-29

Sector Performance

sector performance.2015-05-22.2015-05-29

Advance Decline

advance.decline.line2.2015-05-22.2015-05-29

Market Cap Decile Performance

Decile Mkt. Cap. Adv/Decl
1 (micro) -2.36% 67/62
2 -1.83% 58/71
3 -3.67% 58/70
4 -0.95% 63/66
5 -2.40% 59/69
6 -0.38% 63/66
7 -2.68% 58/71
8 -0.33% 66/62
9 -1.20% 61/68
10 (mega) -1.04% 68/61
Not really sure what will replace the Modi rally. Are we back to reality?

Top Winners and Losers

BPCL +8.67%
HINDPETRO +10.08%
INFRATEL +10.32%
TECHM -16.89%
ADANIENT -11.13%
RELINFRA -8.34%
Looks like the market really hated Tech Mahindra’s results…

ETF Performance

BANKBEES +1.87%
CPSEETF +1.82%
INFRABEES +1.54%
PSUBNKBEES +0.47%
NIFTYBEES -0.14%
JUNIORBEES -0.82%
GOLDBEES -0.96%
Public sector banks remain a bane on Indian society. PSUBNKBEES lets you measure how much of a bane they are…

Yield Curve

yieldCurve.2015-05-22.2015-05-29

Bond Indices

Sub Index Change in YTM Total Return(%)
GSEC TB +0.26 +0.08%
GSEC SUB 1-3 +0.26 -0.16%
GSEC SUB 3-8 +0.01 -0.30%
GSEC SUB 8 -0.01 +0.22%
Everybody and their grandmother is expecting a rate cut on June 2nd…

Investment Theme Performance

Equity Mutual Funds

Bond Mutual Funds

Thought for the weekend

This is what Ajay Banga, CEO of Master Card had to say in a recent conference about India:

And only idiots like me pay taxes there…not paying taxes is a bloodsport in India, right. And that’s going to be, that’s one of the biggest reasons why acceptance in India is poor, acceptance is probably less than a million merchants, there is probably 10 million merchants and 1 million take cards and even they say the take cards, you show up with your card and the first thing will be told is, do you pay cash instead and it’s just the whole way it works, right. That’s going to take time to change.

Source (audio): talkpoint.com