Tag: weekly

Correlation Update 18.07.2015

Nifty one year daily return correlations

Nifty one year daily return correlations

Nifty one month daily return correlations

Nifty one month daily return correlations

Bank Nifty one year daily return correlations

Bank Nifty one year daily return correlations

Bank Nifty one month daily return correlations

Bank Nifty one month daily return correlations

Midcap one year daily return correlations

Midcap one year daily return correlations

Midcap one month daily return correlations

Midcap one month daily return correlations

A lot of thick blue squares mean that positive correlations are high. Red squares mean negative correlations are high. Whites are the doldrums.

Weekly Recap: The Side-Effect of Socialism

world.2015-07-03.2015-07-10

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) +2.33%
CAC(FRA) +1.97%
UKX(GBR) +1.33%
NKY(JPN) -3.70%
SPX(USA) -0.01%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) -2.49%
INMEX(MEX) -0.35%
NGSEINDX(NGA) -2.49%
XU030(TUR) +2.04%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) -0.03%
SHCOMP(CHN) +5.18%
NIFTY(IND) -1.47%
INDEXCF(RUS) -0.47%
TOP40(ZAF) -0.30%

Commodities

Energy
WTI Crude Oil -4.88%
Brent Crude Oil -3.01%
Ethanol +1.60%
Heating Oil -3.34%
Natural Gas +0.11%
RBOB Gasoline +1.27%
Metals
Gold 100oz -0.63%
Palladium -4.98%
Copper -2.67%
Platinum -4.71%
Silver 5000oz +0.00%

Currencies

USDEUR:-0.53% USDJPY:+0.00%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) -0.04%
USDMXN(MEX) -0.03%
USDNGN(NGA) -0.75%
USDTRY(TUR) -0.90%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) +0.72%
USDCNY(CHN) +0.06%
USDINR(IND) -0.06%
USDRUB(RUS) +0.93%
USDZAR(ZAF) +1.10%
Agricultural
Coffee (Robusta) +0.16%
Soybean Meal +2.27%
Soybeans -0.19%
Sugar #11 +0.98%
Wheat -2.13%
White Sugar +0.59%
Cattle -2.51%
Cocoa +1.16%
Coffee (Arabica) -2.38%
Cotton -2.92%
Feeder Cattle -2.73%
Orange Juice +3.84%
Corn +1.55%
Lean Hogs +0.03%
Lumber +2.32%

Credit Indices

Index Change
Markit CDX EM -0.81%
Markit CDX NA HY -0.81%
Markit CDX NA IG +5.25%
Markit iTraxx Asia ex-Japan IG +11.27%
Markit iTraxx Australia +11.48%
Markit iTraxx Europe +7.27%
Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover +23.03%
Markit iTraxx Japan +7.04%
Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe +2.68%
Markit LCDX (Loan CDS) +0.02%
Markit MCDX (Municipal CDS) +1.76%
I think the market has had enough of Greece and China. The next few weeks are going to be all about earnings and how badly companies are going to disappoint investors…

Index Returns

For a deeper dive into indices, check out our weekly Index Update.
index.performance.2015-07-03.2015-07-10

Market Cap Decile Performance

Decile Mkt. Cap. Adv/Decl
1 (micro) +7.34% 77/57
2 +6.18% 79/54
3 +7.31% 77/57
4 +5.66% 77/56
5 +4.21% 74/59
6 +2.25% 67/67
7 +1.04% 71/62
8 +1.12% 73/61
9 +0.60% 63/70
10 (mega) -1.05% 76/58
Large caps bled but midcaps seemed to buck the trend…

Top Winners and Losers

UNIONBANK +5.35%
RCOM +5.37%
CROMPGREAV +12.68%
VEDL -14.28%
CAIRN -7.86%
TATAMOTORS -7.21%
Tata Motors got pummelled by China worries.

ETF Performance

INFRABEES +2.48%
PSUBNKBEES +1.78%
JUNIORBEES +0.98%
BANKBEES +0.31%
GOLDBEES +0.13%
NIFTYBEES -0.90%
CPSEETF -1.82%
Who is buying PSU banks?

Yield Curve

yieldCurve.2015-07-03.2015-07-10

Thought for the weekend

The absence of free markets leads to competition for the market, which leads to competition for political office, which leads to the corruption of politics. That’s the basic story of crony capitalism — a side-effect of socialism.

Source: Socialism, Competition and Politicians

Index Update 11.07.2015

MOMENTUM

We run our proprietary momentum scoring algorithm on indices just like we do on stocks. You can use the momentum scores of sub-indices to get a sense for which sectors have the wind on their backs and those that are facing headwinds.

Traders can pick their longs in sectors with high short-term momentum and their shorts in sectors with low momentum. Investors can use the longer lookback scores to position themselves using our re-factored index Themes.

You can see how the momentum algorithm has performed on individual stocks here.

Here are the best and the worst sub-indices:

index momentum best 365 2015-07-10 png

index momentum best 50 2015-07-10 png

index momentum worst 365 2015-07-10 png

index momentum worst 50 2015-07-10 png

Relative Strength Spread

CNX_500 relative-spread-index 50 2015-07-10 png

Refactored Index Performance

50-day performance, from May 04, 2015 through July 10, 2015:

Trend Model Summary

Index Signal % From Peak Day of Peak
CNX AUTO SHORT
9.51
2015-Jan-27
CNX BANK LONG
8.93
2015-Jan-27
CNX COMMODITIES SHORT
28.96
2008-Jan-04
CNX CONSUMPTION LONG
2.44
2015-Apr-13
CNX ENERGY SHORT
27.21
2008-Jan-14
CNX FMCG SHORT
10.80
2015-Feb-25
CNX INFRA LONG
46.72
2008-Jan-09
CNX IT SHORT
88.69
2000-Feb-21
CNX MEDIA LONG
24.79
2008-Jan-04
CNX METAL LONG
60.32
2008-Jan-04
CNX MNC LONG
3.13
2015-Mar-12
CNX NIFTY LONG
7.07
2015-Mar-03
CNX PHARMA LONG
9.35
2015-Apr-08
CNX PSE LONG
25.36
2008-Jan-04
CNX PSU BANK LONG
37.25
2010-Nov-05
CNX REALTY SHORT
90.44
2008-Jan-14
CNX SERVICE LONG
8.97
2015-Mar-03
Finance and FMCG showed an uptick in momentum. However, the word of the week is “listless.” Expect most trend followers to lose discipline right about now…

Correlation Update 11.07.2015

Nifty one year daily return correlations

Nifty one year daily return correlations

Nifty one month daily return correlations

Nifty one month daily return correlations

Bank Nifty one year daily return correlations

Bank Nifty one year daily return correlations

Bank Nifty one month daily return correlations

Bank Nifty one month daily return correlations

Midcap one year daily return correlations

Midcap one year daily return correlations

Midcap one month daily return correlations

Midcap one month daily return correlations

A lot of thick blue squares mean that positive correlations are high. Red squares mean negative correlations are high. Whites are the doldrums.

Weekly Recap: Illusion of Insight

world.2015-06-26.2015-07-03

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) -3.78%
CAC(FRA) -4.96%
UKX(GBR) -2.49%
NKY(JPN) -0.80%
SPX(USA) -1.07%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) +1.22%
INMEX(MEX) -1.33%
NGSEINDX(NGA) -0.96%
XU030(TUR) -3.24%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) -2.42%
SHCOMP(CHN) -12.07%
NIFTY(IND) +1.24%
INDEXCF(RUS) -0.78%
TOP40(ZAF) -1.49%

Commodities

Energy
Brent Crude Oil -4.66%
Ethanol +3.10%
Natural Gas +0.18%
WTI Crude Oil -6.97%
Heating Oil -3.60%
RBOB Gasoline -2.01%
Metals
Copper -1.13%
Palladium +0.78%
Platinum +0.21%
Gold 100oz -0.29%
Silver 5000oz -0.64%

Currencies

USDEUR:+0.51% USDJPY:-0.86%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) +0.09%
USDMXN(MEX) +0.96%
USDNGN(NGA) -0.03%
USDTRY(TUR) +0.95%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) +0.25%
USDCNY(CHN) -0.06%
USDINR(IND) -0.32%
USDRUB(RUS) +1.83%
USDZAR(ZAF) +0.82%
Agricultural
Corn +9.16%
Feeder Cattle +0.15%
Lean Hogs +4.63%
Lumber -1.60%
Cattle +2.02%
Cocoa -0.23%
Coffee (Arabica) -4.07%
Cotton +1.26%
Coffee (Robusta) -2.48%
Orange Juice -2.44%
Soybean Meal +4.91%
Soybeans +4.58%
Sugar #11 +6.14%
Wheat +4.59%
White Sugar +3.31%

Credit Indices

Index Change
Markit CDX EM -0.19%
Markit CDX NA HY +0.10%
Markit CDX NA IG +1.32%
Markit iTraxx Asia ex-Japan IG +5.12%
Markit iTraxx Australia +5.77%
Markit iTraxx Europe +6.41%
Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover +27.25%
Markit iTraxx Japan +0.68%
Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe +2.22%
Markit LCDX (Loan CDS) -0.04%
Markit MCDX (Municipal CDS) +4.16%
The Nifty was one of the few global indices that ended this week in the green. Pretty much all markets were buffetted by the Greece drama. Shanghai had one of the worst weeks ever – Chinese regulators have allowed pretty much anything to be posted as collateral, the only thing that remains to be tried is outlawing falling stock prices.

Nifty Heatmap

CNX NIFTY.2015-06-26.2015-07-03

Index Returns

For a deeper dive into indices, check out our weekly Index Update.
index.performance.2015-06-26.2015-07-03

Sector Performance

sector performance.2015-06-26.2015-07-03

Market Cap Decile Performance

Decile Mkt. Cap. Adv/Decl
1 (micro) +2.10% 64/67
2 +2.76% 71/59
3 +3.02% 72/59
4 +2.47% 68/62
5 +3.80% 76/55
6 +2.73% 67/63
7 +1.58% 69/62
8 +1.35% 67/63
9 +1.52% 63/68
10 (mega) +0.81% 72/59
Midcaps outperformed large-caps. Is this a sign of the market turning around?

Top Winners and Losers

AMBUJACEM +6.76%
BAJAJFINSV +12.09%
UBL +13.80%
TECHM -9.62%
HINDALCO -5.47%
BHARATFORG -3.67%
Who would’ve thunk that a cement stock can go up more than 6% in a week?

ETF Performance

BANKBEES +1.72%
JUNIORBEES +1.70%
PSUBNKBEES +1.02%
NIFTYBEES +0.88%
CPSEETF +0.56%
INFRABEES +0.36%
GOLDBEES -1.07%
Banks caught a bid. Gold sank.

Yield Curve

yield Curve.2015-06-26.2015-07-03

Bond Indices

Sub Index Change in YTM Total Return(%)
GSEC TB -0.14 +0.12%
GSEC SUB 1-3 +0.16 -0.10%
GSEC SUB 3-8 +0.32 -1.27%
GSEC SUB 8 +0.19 -1.32%
The long end of the curve got creamed…

Investment Theme Performance

Equity Mutual Funds

Bond Mutual Funds

Thought for the weekend

People were more confident that they knew the answers — had the information in their heads — if they had access to [internet] search. It’s more like thinking you know how to fix a car if you have access to a mechanic.

Plus, searching the internet is almost effortless, and it’s almost always accessible. You never face your ignorance when it’s there. Because we’re so deeply plugged into it, we misattribute the connection to knowledge to actually having the knowledge ourselves.

Emotional investments can give people the illusion of insight.

Source: The Internet Makes You Think You’re Smarter Than You Are