Tag: weekly

Weekly Recap: Roller Coaster Investing

world.2015-07-17.2015-07-24

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) -2.79%
CAC(FRA) -1.31%
UKX(GBR) -2.88%
NKY(JPN) -0.52%
SPX(USA) -2.03%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) -0.27%
INMEX(MEX) -2.26%
NGSEINDX(NGA) +0.14%
XU030(TUR) -4.70%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) -6.06%
SHCOMP(CHN) +2.87%
NIFTY(IND) -1.03%
INDEXCF(RUS) -3.30%
TOP40(ZAF) -2.54%

Commodities

Energy
Ethanol -4.06%
RBOB Gasoline -4.46%
Brent Crude Oil -4.02%
Heating Oil -1.74%
WTI Crude Oil -5.35%
Natural Gas -2.77%
Metals
Gold 100oz -3.05%
Palladium +1.49%
Platinum -1.18%
Silver 5000oz -1.35%
Copper -4.80%

Currencies

USDEUR:-1.16% USDJPY:-0.19%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) +0.70%
USDMXN(MEX) +2.26%
USDNGN(NGA) -0.03%
USDTRY(TUR) +3.28%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) +4.95%
USDCNY(CHN) +0.00%
USDINR(IND) +0.90%
USDRUB(RUS) +2.83%
USDZAR(ZAF) +2.53%
Agricultural
Coffee (Arabica) -4.47%
Coffee (Robusta) -0.56%
Corn -6.67%
Cotton +0.03%
Wheat -7.62%
White Sugar -3.08%
Orange Juice +2.83%
Feeder Cattle -2.46%
Cattle -2.62%
Cocoa -3.88%
Lean Hogs +2.41%
Lumber -4.10%
Soybean Meal -1.83%
Soybeans -2.34%
Sugar #11 -5.94%

Credit Indices

Index Change
Markit CDX EM -0.39%
Markit CDX NA HY -0.72%
Markit CDX NA IG +3.51%
Markit iTraxx Asia ex-Japan IG -0.56%
Markit iTraxx Australia -2.39%
Markit iTraxx Europe -0.14%
Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover +7.87%
Markit iTraxx Japan -1.57%
Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe +1.59%
Markit LCDX (Loan CDS) +0.00%
Markit MCDX (Municipal CDS) +0.01%
An uneasy week that saw most indices weak. The entire commodity complex came crashing down. Gold, copper, silver, oil, grains… pretty much every commodity was down.

Nifty Heatmap

CNX NIFTY.2015-07-17.2015-07-24

Index Returns

For a deeper dive into indices, check out our weekly Index Update.
index.performance.2015-07-17.2015-07-24

Sector Performance

sector performance.2015-07-17.2015-07-24

Market Cap Decile Performance

Decile Mkt. Cap. Adv/Decl
1 (micro) -1.58% 73/62
2 +0.74% 69/66
3 +8.28% 69/66
4 -0.03% 71/63
5 +1.95% 70/66
6 +0.73% 65/70
7 +0.40% 72/63
8 +1.34% 70/65
9 -0.35% 63/72
10 (mega) +0.01% 70/65
Looks like there was an outlier that bumped up a microcap stock…

Top Winners and Losers

INFY +8.56%
ABIRLANUVO +8.56%
IBULHSGFIN +8.86%
LUPIN -15.25%
SUNPHARMA -11.76%
CONCOR -11.74%
Sunpharma’s warning, Lupin’s disappointment and Infy’s optimism…

ETF Performance

INFRABEES +1.50%
JUNIORBEES -0.66%
NIFTYBEES -1.12%
CPSEETF -2.56%
PSUBNKBEES -2.76%
BANKBEES -2.94%
GOLDBEES -3.13%
Gold got shellacked…

Yield Curve

yield Curve.2015-07-17.2015-07-24

Bond Indices

Sub Index Change in YTM Total Return(%)
0 5 +0.02 +0.12%
5 10 -0.04 +0.35%
10 15 -0.01 +0.22%
15 20 -0.02 +0.34%
20 30 -0.02 +0.36%
The long end of the curve was in the green after a long time…

Investment Theme Performance

A mixed bag. Momentum ended flat as Kitex got whacked…

Equity Mutual Funds

Bond Mutual Funds

Thought for the weekend

Big money is in buying and holding great businesses acquired at reasonable valuations. Owning such businesses will produce gut-wrenching roller coaster rides which the investor has to have the willingness to take. They can’t avoid those rides by jumping out and trying to get back in, and attempts to do so are likely to be unsuccessful. So, the best strategy is to stay put and bear it.

Source: Sanjay Bakshi

Index Update 25.07.2015

MOMENTUM

We run our proprietary momentum scoring algorithm on indices just like we do on stocks. You can use the momentum scores of sub-indices to get a sense for which sectors have the wind on their backs and those that are facing headwinds.

Traders can pick their longs in sectors with high short-term momentum and their shorts in sectors with low momentum. Investors can use the longer lookback scores to position themselves using our re-factored index Themes.

You can see how the momentum algorithm has performed on individual stocks here.

Here are the best and the worst sub-indices:

index momentum best 365 2015-07-24 png

index momentum best 50 2015-07-24 png

index momentum worst 365 2015-07-24 png

index momentum worst 50 2015-07-24 png

Relative Strength Spread

CNX_500 relative-spread-index 50 2015-07-24 png

Refactored Index Performance

50-day performance, from May 18, 2015 through July 24, 2015:

Trend Model Summary

Index Signal % From Peak Day of Peak
CNX AUTO LONG
6.90
2015-Jan-27
CNX BANK SHORT
9.34
2015-Jan-27
CNX COMMODITIES SHORT
27.83
2008-Jan-04
CNX CONSUMPTION LONG
0.49
2015-Jul-22
CNX ENERGY LONG
25.60
2008-Jan-14
CNX FMCG SHORT
8.93
2015-Feb-25
CNX INFRA SHORT
46.63
2008-Jan-09
CNX IT LONG
88.00
2000-Feb-21
CNX MEDIA LONG
19.72
2008-Jan-04
CNX METAL SHORT
60.84
2008-Jan-04
CNX MNC SHORT
0.95
2015-Jul-16
CNX NIFTY LONG
5.28
2015-Mar-03
CNX PHARMA LONG
11.60
2015-Apr-08
CNX PSE LONG
23.77
2008-Jan-04
CNX PSU BANK SHORT
39.09
2010-Nov-05
CNX REALTY LONG
90.87
2008-Jan-14
CNX SERVICE LONG
6.07
2015-Mar-03
Index momentum seems to have leveled off. Are we seeing a near-term top? NIFTY is still 5% below its April top…

Correlation Update 25.07.2015

Nifty one year daily return correlations

Nifty one year daily return correlations

Nifty one month daily return correlations

Nifty one month daily return correlations

Bank Nifty one year daily return correlations

Bank Nifty one year daily return correlations

Bank Nifty one month daily return correlations

Bank Nifty one month daily return correlations

Midcap one year daily return correlations

Midcap one year daily return correlations

Midcap one month daily return correlations

Midcap one month daily return correlations

A lot of thick blue squares mean that positive correlations are high. Red squares mean negative correlations are high. Whites are the doldrums.

Weekly Recap: Sorry, monkeys

world.2015-07-10.2015-07-17

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) +3.16%
CAC(FRA) +4.51%
UKX(GBR) +1.52%
NKY(JPN) +4.40%
SPX(USA) +2.37%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) +0.22%
INMEX(MEX) +1.04%
NGSEINDX(NGA) -2.15%
XU030(TUR) -0.04%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) -0.77%
SHCOMP(CHN) +2.05%
NIFTY(IND) +2.98%
INDEXCF(RUS) +1.61%
TOP40(ZAF) +1.81%

Commodities

Energy
Ethanol -6.35%
Heating Oil -4.58%
Brent Crude Oil -2.84%
RBOB Gasoline -4.64%
WTI Crude Oil -3.77%
Natural Gas +4.26%
Metals
Gold 100oz -2.07%
Palladium -5.52%
Platinum -3.68%
Copper -1.57%
Silver 5000oz -5.13%

Currencies

USDEUR:+2.77% USDJPY:+1.02%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) +0.29%
USDMXN(MEX) +1.30%
USDNGN(NGA) +0.79%
USDTRY(TUR) -0.53%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) +0.60%
USDCNY(CHN) +0.00%
USDINR(IND) +0.12%
USDRUB(RUS) +1.11%
USDZAR(ZAF) -0.81%
Agricultural
Cattle -0.42%
Cocoa +1.46%
Lean Hogs -4.47%
Lumber -6.25%
Orange Juice -0.12%
Soybean Meal -1.34%
White Sugar -4.23%
Corn -1.52%
Cotton +0.08%
Feeder Cattle +1.70%
Coffee (Arabica) +3.49%
Coffee (Robusta) -2.70%
Soybeans -2.78%
Sugar #11 -3.63%
Wheat -3.44%

Credit Indices

Index Change
Markit CDX EM +0.26%
Markit CDX NA HY +0.77%
Markit CDX NA IG -5.48%
Markit iTraxx Asia ex-Japan IG -5.65%
Markit iTraxx Australia -7.09%
Markit iTraxx Europe -10.49%
Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover -48.99%
Markit iTraxx Japan -5.36%
Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe -4.75%
Markit LCDX (Loan CDS) +0.00%
Markit MCDX (Municipal CDS) -5.16%
Can we get an encore? Or are we going to start worrying about flaccid earnings and get depressed all over again?

Nifty Heatmap

CNX NIFTY.2015-07-10.2015-07-17

Index Returns

For a deeper dive into indices, check out our weekly Index Update.
index.performance.2015-07-10.2015-07-17

Sector Performance

sector performance.2015-07-10.2015-07-17

Market Cap Decile Performance

Decile Mkt. Cap. Adv/Decl
1 (micro) -3.26% 74/60
2 +3.45% 77/57
3 +5.42% 71/62
4 +4.33% 78/56
5 +3.93% 69/64
6 +3.81% 76/58
7 +3.51% 68/66
8 +4.40% 75/58
9 +2.30% 69/65
10 (mega) +3.07% 69/65
An across the board rally…

Top Winners and Losers

INFRATEL +7.56%
HINDPETRO +8.00%
TATACHEM +9.65%
SRTRANSFIN -4.36%
BAJAJHLDNG -2.82%
TITAN -1.93%
Fall in oil prices lifted OMC stocks…

ETF Performance

NIFTYBEES +3.14%
JUNIORBEES +2.72%
BANKBEES +2.63%
CPSEETF +2.38%
INFRABEES +1.33%
PSUBNKBEES -0.43%
GOLDBEES -1.56%
Large-caps dominated mid-caps. Gold hit 5-year lows in USD…

Yield Curve

yield Curve.2015-07-10.2015-07-17

Bond Indices

Sub Index Change in YTM Total Return(%)
0 5 +0.04 +0.04%
5 10 +0.05 -0.12%
10 15 +0.04 -0.16%
15 20 +0.06 -0.40%
20 30 +0.04 -0.28%
Long bonds got shellacked…

Investment Theme Performance

No Theme left behind. A broad-based rally lifted all investment strategies.

Equity Mutual Funds

Bond Mutual Funds

Thought for the weekend

Mutual fund performance is similar to the performance of stocks. As a company matures and grows, more investors become aware of it, and its share price better reflects its prospects. This explains the phenomenon of how valuations and returns of benchmark indexes for smaller companies are usually higher than larger companies. Of course, they’re also riskier.

In the case of mutual funds, impressive alpha attracts more investor money to a fund, and that makes it more difficult to produce alpha since taking larger positions in stocks is going to have a greater impact on share prices.

Source: Can active managers beat dart-throwing monkeys?

Index Update 18.07.2015

MOMENTUM

We run our proprietary momentum scoring algorithm on indices just like we do on stocks. You can use the momentum scores of sub-indices to get a sense for which sectors have the wind on their backs and those that are facing headwinds.

Traders can pick their longs in sectors with high short-term momentum and their shorts in sectors with low momentum. Investors can use the longer lookback scores to position themselves using our re-factored index Themes.

You can see how the momentum algorithm has performed on individual stocks here.

Here are the best and the worst sub-indices:

index momentum best 365 2015-07-17 png

index momentum best 50 2015-07-17 png

index momentum worst 365 2015-07-17 png

index momentum worst 50 2015-07-17 png

Relative Strength Spread

CNX_500 relative-spread-index 50 2015-07-17 png

Refactored Index Performance

50-day performance, from May 11, 2015 through July 17, 2015:

Trend Model Summary

Index Signal % From Peak Day of Peak
CNX AUTO SHORT
6.88
2015-Jan-27
CNX BANK SHORT
7.11
2015-Jan-27
CNX COMMODITIES SHORT
27.00
2008-Jan-04
CNX CONSUMPTION LONG
0.00
2015-Jul-17
CNX ENERGY SHORT
25.49
2008-Jan-14
CNX FMCG SHORT
7.71
2015-Feb-25
CNX INFRA LONG
45.57
2008-Jan-09
CNX IT LONG
88.20
2000-Feb-21
CNX MEDIA LONG
20.59
2008-Jan-04
CNX METAL LONG
59.82
2008-Jan-04
CNX MNC LONG
0.04
2015-Jul-16
CNX PHARMA LONG
5.00
2015-Apr-08
CNX PSE LONG
23.04
2008-Jan-04
CNX PSU BANK SHORT
37.11
2010-Nov-05
CNX REALTY SHORT
90.41
2008-Jan-14
CNX SERVICE LONG
6.13
2015-Mar-03
MNCs and FMCGs have recouped their drawdowns. PHARMA is not far behind. Its the old economy stocks that are still trying to digest their “India Shining” debt binge.