Tag: technical analysis

Analysis: HDFCBANK (HDB)

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Today’s pick is [stockquote]HDFCBANK[/stockquote]. The stock has been in an up-trend since lows of last December. However, the last one and a half month has seen a range bound movement for the stock. In the last three month period, the stock was up 7% same as that of Nifty’s return. The stock is currently trading around its 52-week high at 645 levels.

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Oscillators RSI and CMO are at currently at 58 and 22 are hovering around the over-bought territory but are not suggesting any direction.

MACD line and the signal line are moving very close to each other since a long time and are not suggesting any trend. The short-term technicals are looking pretty good: both the 4×9 Cross-Over and 4×18 Cross-Over are bullish.

The GMMA chart shows that long-term lines are parallel to each other which is a bullish sign for the stock. The short-term lines are entangled because of the last months range bound movement.

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HDFCBANK’s average correlation of 0.73 with the Nifty is positive and quite strong. The stock will replicate the movements of Nifty closely because of the high co-efficient. [stockquote]NIFTYBEES[/stockquote]

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HDFCBANK has a historical volatility in the range of 0.4 to 4 which is a very big range. The scrip’s volatility is currently in the lower side of the range and hence should not be a concern.

Analysts have mixed expectations regarding this stock. Next set of earnings can help bring a different picture on the charts. Also, the magnitude of buys and sells from insiders crossed each other out.

Looking at these technicals a short-term buy is suggested. A break-out of the pennant in either direction will trigger a longer-term call.

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Analysis: PANTALOONR

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Today’s pick is [stockquote]PANTALOONR[/stockquote]. The stock is currently trading around the same price where it was year ago – range bound between 130 to 220 levels for almost a year. However, it recently zipped past its resistance at 200 on higher volumes. In the last three month period, the stock is up 30% vs. 7% for Nifty.

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Oscillators RSI and CMO are currently at 62 and 18 and are closing towards over-bought territory.

MACD line has just crossed the signal line from below signaling a bullish movement for the coming days.

Long term set of GMMA lines are fanning out – which is a bullish for the long term. Due to the recent down-trend in the stock prices the short-term lines are constricted and are not signaling any movement.

In addition to these technicals, the stock seems to have some momentum behind it with 4 cross 9 and 9 cross 18 EMA bullish crossovers seen in the past week.

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PANTALOONR’s average correlation of 0.60 with the Nifty is positive and strong. The stock will replicate the movements of Nifty closely. [stockquote]NIFTYBEES[/stockquote]

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PANTALOONR had a historical volatility in the range of 0.6 to 1.6. Currently the stock’s volatility is towards the lower side of the range.

Looking at these technicals a short-term buy is suggested. For the long-term, the GMMA lines are giving a bullish signal for the stock and a break-out above the 220 levels will confirm the signal.

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Analysis: LT

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Today’s pick is [stockquote]LT[/stockquote]. The up-trend in place since December last year was punctuated by a correction in March through May. The stock has since resumed its upward trajectory to reach a 52 week high of 1700 recently. In the last three month period, the stock is up 18% vs. 8% for Nifty.

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Oscillators RSI and CMO are currently at 57 and 16 and in no man’s land.

MACD line and the signal line are moving very close to each other with the histogram levels steady. They are not signaling any directional movement.

Long term set of GMMA lines are fanning out – which is a bullish for the long term. Due to the recent down-trend in the stock prices the short-term lines are constricting, giving a bearish signal for the short-term.

Added to all the current technical levels, we can see a divergence in RSI, CMO and MACD levels. The higher highs in the prices are accompanied with the lower highs of the technicals which is a near-term bearish sign for the stock.

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LT’s average correlation of 0.75 with the Nifty is positive and quite strong. The stock will replicate the movements of Nifty closely. [stockquote]NIFTYBEES[/stockquote]

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LT had a historical volatility in the range of 0.3 to 0.8. Current volatility of the stock should not be sign of panic for the traders.

In a couple of insider trading instances between 25th through 29th Oct, right around when the stock was making its 52 week highs, the Chairman, Mr. Naik, sold a total of Rs. 10.1 Cr worth of shares.

Looking at these technicals a short-term hold is suggested. Although for the long-term, the GMMA lines are giving a bullish signal for the stock.

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Analysis: ONGC

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Today’s pick is [stockquote]ONGC[/stockquote]. The last year saw the stock trading in a 225 to 300 range and the stock was range-bound for the longest time since July. However, it broke-down the range a week ago. During the last three month period, the stock was -5% vs. the +8% of the Nifty.

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Oscillators RSI and CMO are currently at 36 and -56 and are close to the over-sold territory.

MACD line and the signal line are at distant but the histogram levels are steady – this can be the early sign of a short-term up-trend.

The GMMA chart is not giving any signal as both long-term and short-term lines are tightly packed.

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ONGC’s average correlation of 0.51 with the Nifty is positive. The stock will not replicate the movements of Nifty closely. [stockquote]NIFTYBEES[/stockquote]

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ONGC had a historical volatility in the range of 0.3 to 0.7. Current high volatility can be attributed to the Emkay disaster.

The decline in the price can also be attributed to the withdrawal of the much awaited FPO issue for the stock. With the stock trading at a 12% discount to where LIC bailed it out in March, it looks like its not so nirmal anand after all.

Looking at these technicals a short-term buy is suggested if the stock picks up from the 260 support levels. Although for the long-term, a decisive breakout from the current trading range will suggest a direction.

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Analysis: KTKBANK

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Today’s pick is [stockquote]KTKBANK[/stockquote]. The last year saw the stock trading in a 60 to 140 range and the stock is in an up-trend since its Jan lows; The stock just saw 52-week highs at 140 levels. In the last three month period, the stock is up 42% vs. the Nifty’s 8%. 

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Oscillators RSI and CMO are currently at 69 and 36 and are close to the over-bought territory.

MACD line and the signal line are moving very close to each other and the histogram levels are steady – signaling a short-term consolidation in progress.

The GMMA chart shows both long-term and short-term lines fanning out. This is an extremely bullish signal for the stock.

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KTKBANK’s average correlation of 0.6 with the Nifty is positive and strong. The stock will replicate the movements of Nifty closely. [stockquote]NIFTYBEES[/stockquote]

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KTKBANK had a historical volatility in the range of 0.4 to 0.8 till Sep 12, after which we see a rise in the volatility. This high volatility asks for a cautious outlook for the stock.

Looking at these technicals a short-term hold is suggested. Although, the spreading GMMA lines are giving a strong long-term buy signal for the stock.

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