Tag: monthly

Monthly Recap: November Rain

world.2015-10-30.2015-11-30

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) +4.79%
CAC(FRA) +1.10%
UKX(GBR) +0.47%
NKY(JPN) +4.87%
SPX(USA) -0.55%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) +2.30%
INMEX(MEX) -2.01%
NGSEINDX(NGA) -6.51%
XU030(TUR) -4.51%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) -1.23%
SHCOMP(CHN) +2.18%
NIFTY(IND) -1.37%
INDEXCF(RUS) +3.58%
TOP40(ZAF) -4.05%

Commodities

Energy
RBOB Gasoline -5.10%
Brent Crude Oil -11.02%
Ethanol -7.28%
Heating Oil -9.08%
Natural Gas -4.35%
WTI Crude Oil -11.31%
Metals
Silver 5000oz -8.39%
Gold 100oz -6.35%
Platinum -14.84%
Palladium -18.51%
Copper -10.39%

Currencies

USDEUR:+3.75% USDJPY:+2.02%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) +0.73%
USDMXN(MEX) +0.06%
USDNGN(NGA) -0.76%
USDTRY(TUR) -0.98%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) +0.40%
USDCNY(CHN) +1.29%
USDINR(IND) +1.88%
USDRUB(RUS) +4.88%
USDZAR(ZAF) +4.55%
Agricultural
Cocoa +1.63%
Feeder Cattle -14.79%
Lean Hogs -1.22%
Orange Juice +5.55%
Sugar #11 +2.00%
Cattle -6.61%
Cotton -3.22%
Lumber -3.23%
Soybean Meal -5.11%
Wheat -11.24%
White Sugar +2.58%
Coffee (Arabica) -3.65%
Corn -3.66%
Coffee (Robusta) -7.95%
Soybeans +0.45%

Credit Indices

Index Change
Markit CDX EM +0.54%
Markit CDX NA HY -0.97%
Markit CDX NA IG +5.91%
Markit iTraxx Asia ex-Japan IG -1.93%
Markit iTraxx Australia +7.62%
Markit iTraxx Europe -0.81%
Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover -7.97%
Markit iTraxx Japan +9.43%
Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe -0.27%
Markit LCDX (Loan CDS) -0.04%
Markit MCDX (Municipal CDS) -0.50%
Most global indices ended the month in the red. The US Dollar rallied against most major currencies and the market seems to have come to terms with a December liftoff in US interest rates.

International ETFs (USD)

global.etf.performance.2015-10-30.2015-11-30

Nifty Heatmap

NIFTY 50.2015-10-30.2015-11-30

Index Returns

index.performance.2015-10-30.2015-11-30

Market Cap Decile Performance

Decile Mkt. Cap. Adv/Decl
1 (micro) +9.56% 68/67
2 +10.94% 78/56
3 +9.16% 78/56
4 +5.00% 74/60
5 +4.13% 84/50
6 +4.99% 78/56
7 +2.13% 71/63
8 +1.53% 65/69
9 +0.87% 67/67
10 (mega) -1.62% 64/71
Large caps trailed mid and small caps…

Top Winners and Losers

MOTHERSUMI +17.63%
GAIL +18.37%
PETRONET +20.69%
DRREDDY -27.39%
SUNPHARMA -17.98%
SAIL -14.34%
Biggest moves where brought about by regulatory events…

ETF Performance

PSUBNKBEES +6.77%
CPSEETF +1.19%
BANKBEES +0.34%
JUNIORBEES -0.22%
NIFTYBEES -1.87%
INFRABEES -2.50%
GOLDBEES -6.07%
PSU Banks: dead cat bounce or are government efforts finally turning things around?

Yield Curve

yieldCurve.2015-10-30.2015-11-30

Bond Indices

Sub Index Change in YTM Total Return(%)
0 5 +0.08 +0.38%
5 10 +0.13 -0.07%
10 15 +0.13 -0.28%
15 20 +0.15 -0.83%
20 30 +0.13 -0.72%
Next rate cuts are probably six months away…

Investment Theme Performance

Most investment strategies did well… November saw Quality to Price post over +250% and Momentum post over +200% gains since their inception in August 2013.

Equity Mutual Funds

Bond Mutual Funds

Institutional flows

FPIs sold off both bonds and equities…

dii-investments.2014-01-01.2015-11-30

fii-investments.2014-01-01.2015-11-30

US Yield Curve

ust-yield-curve.2011-01-18

Spread between Indian and US long bonds

ust-ind-10yr-spread.2011-01-18

Monthly Recap: Transportation Cloud

world.2015-09-30.2015-10-30

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) +12.32%
CAC(FRA) +9.93%
UKX(GBR) +4.94%
NKY(JPN) +9.75%
SPX(USA) +8.96%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) +5.48%
INMEX(MEX) +4.50%
NGSEINDX(NGA) -6.49%
XU030(TUR) +7.65%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) +2.42%
SHCOMP(CHN) +10.80%
NIFTY(IND) +1.47%
INDEXCF(RUS) +4.17%
TOP40(ZAF) +7.66%

Commodities

Energy
Brent Crude Oil +2.00%
Ethanol +4.69%
Heating Oil -0.26%
Natural Gas -9.11%
RBOB Gasoline -2.26%
WTI Crude Oil +2.59%
Metals
Copper -1.28%
Gold 100oz +2.37%
Palladium +3.80%
Platinum +8.28%
Silver 5000oz +6.16%

Currencies

USDEUR:+1.53% USDJPY:+0.58%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) -6.61%
USDMXN(MEX) -2.46%
USDNGN(NGA) -0.11%
USDTRY(TUR) -3.67%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) -3.49%
USDCNY(CHN) -0.61%
USDINR(IND) -0.50%
USDRUB(RUS) -2.34%
USDZAR(ZAF) -0.31%
Agricultural
Cocoa +2.56%
Coffee (Robusta) +2.48%
Lean Hogs -19.47%
Lumber +11.43%
Orange Juice +27.57%
Cotton +5.45%
Feeder Cattle +7.28%
Soybeans -1.12%
Wheat +1.90%
White Sugar +6.16%
Cattle +11.69%
Corn -1.74%
Sugar #11 +18.90%
Coffee (Arabica) -0.45%
Soybean Meal -1.52%

Credit Indices

Index Change
Markit CDX EM +2.60%
Markit CDX NA HY +0.76%
Markit CDX NA IG -11.30%
Markit iTraxx Asia ex-Japan IG -16.79%
Markit iTraxx Australia -11.81%
Markit iTraxx Europe -14.41%
Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover -100.43%
Markit iTraxx Japan -9.37%
Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe -4.17%
Markit LCDX (Loan CDS) +0.00%
Markit MCDX (Municipal CDS) -2.55%
Diwali Muhurat trading session is on Wednesday, November 11, 2015 between 17:45 and 18:45. Happy Diwali!

International ETFs (USD)

global.etf.performance.2015-09-30.2015-10-30

Nifty Heatmap

CNX NIFTY.2015-09-30.2015-10-30

Index Returns

For a deeper dive into indices, check out our weekly Index Update.
index.performance.2015-09-30.2015-10-30

Market Cap Decile Performance

Decile Mkt. Cap. Adv/Decl
1 +12.12% 74/57
2 +14.05% 88/42
3 +11.56% 89/41
4 +12.47% 89/41
5 +10.04% 85/45
6 +8.32% 80/50
7 +8.73% 76/54
8 +7.37% 75/55
9 +3.61% 67/63
10 +3.08% 68/63
A solid rally across the board…

Top Winners and Losers

VEDL +18.00%
HINDALCO +18.71%
TATAMOTORS +28.92%
FEDERALBNK -15.17%
BANKBARODA -12.55%
HCLTECH -11.25%
Beaten down sectors saw a smart bounce back. And Tata Motors – take a bow!

ETF Performance

INFRABEES +2.65%
GOLDBEES +2.25%
NIFTYBEES +2.07%
CPSEETF +1.01%
JUNIORBEES +0.70%
BANKBEES +0.54%
PSUBNKBEES -0.90%
Banks seem to have hit a plateau. Have been range bound for almost a year…

Yield Curve

yieldCurve.2015-09-30.2015-10-30

Bond Indices

Sub Index Change in YTM Total Return(%)
0 5 +0.00 +0.60%
5 10 +0.02 +0.55%
10 15 +0.02 +0.39%
15 20 +0.00 +0.56%
20 30 +0.03 +0.35%
Yields drifted up a tad…

Investment Theme Performance

Velocity – our absolute momentum theme – overtook our thoroughbred relative momentum theme this month.

Equity Mutual Funds

Bond Mutual Funds

Institutional Investment Trends

fii-investments.2014-01-01.2015-10-31

dii-investments.2014-01-01.2015-10-31

Thought to sum up the month

Autonomous cars will be commonplace by 2025 and have a near monopoly by 2030, and the sweeping change they bring will eclipse every other innovation our society has experienced. They will cause unprecedented job loss and a fundamental restructuring of our economy, solve large portions of our environmental problems, prevent tens of thousands of deaths per year, save millions of hours with increased productivity, and create entire new industries that we cannot even imagine from our current vantage point.

Source: Zack Kanter

Monthly Recap: Good Investing Hurts

world.2015-08-31.2015-09-30

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) -5.84%
CAC(FRA) -4.25%
UKX(GBR) -2.98%
NKY(JPN) -5.88%
SPX(USA) -2.58%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) -5.43%
INMEX(MEX) -2.18%
NGSEINDX(NGA) +5.16%
XU030(TUR) -1.22%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) -3.23%
SHCOMP(CHN) -4.78%
NIFTY(IND) +0.24%
INDEXCF(RUS) -5.20%
TOP40(ZAF) +1.20%

Commodities

Energy
Brent Crude Oil -8.90%
Ethanol +4.85%
Natural Gas -5.45%
RBOB Gasoline -15.74%
WTI Crude Oil -5.77%
Heating Oil -7.15%
Metals
Gold 100oz -1.51%
Platinum -9.61%
Copper +2.15%
Silver 5000oz -0.68%
Palladium +8.89%

Currencies

USDEUR:+0.68% USDJPY:-0.80%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) +4.31%
USDMXN(MEX) +1.02%
USDNGN(NGA) +0.17%
USDTRY(TUR) +3.91%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) +8.66%
USDCNY(CHN) -0.34%
USDINR(IND) -1.38%
USDRUB(RUS) +2.21%
USDZAR(ZAF) +4.24%
Agricultural
Coffee (Arabica) +0.21%
Wheat +6.04%
Coffee (Robusta) -1.52%
Orange Juice -18.53%
Soybean Meal -4.62%
White Sugar +8.38%
Cattle -13.66%
Lumber -3.66%
Soybeans -0.61%
Cocoa +2.59%
Corn +5.98%
Cotton -7.19%
Feeder Cattle -11.86%
Lean Hogs +7.97%
Sugar #11 +20.58%

Credit Indices

Index Change
Markit CDX EM -2.28%
Markit CDX NA HY -2.05%
Markit CDX NA IG +7.87%
Markit iTraxx Asia ex-Japan IG +2.50%
Markit iTraxx Australia +9.68%
Markit iTraxx Europe +13.38%
Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover +66.06%
Markit iTraxx Japan +5.91%
Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe -2.27%
Markit LCDX (Loan CDS) +0.00%
Markit MCDX (Municipal CDS) +0.97%
A painful month for the markets finally came to an end with a relief rally. Chinese rebalancing away from an investment driven economy to a consumption driven one is forcing a new economic world order. And just when things seemed to be improving in Europe, the Volkswagen scandal hit and dragged everybody down. Investors seem to have quit pretty much every risk-asset…

International ETFs

This gives you an idea of how widespread the carnage was. India was one of the few markets that managed to end September in the green.
global.etf.performance.2015-08-31.2015-09-30

Gold

US rate hike jitters has pushed precious metals down for most of this year. With 2010’s hyper-inflation fears morphing into 2015’s deflation, gold has seen a massive sell-off…
gold futures usd september

Oil

Saudi’s kept the pump running, hoping to drive US shale operators out of business. But slowing global growth and an appreciating US Dollar might have had a bigger impact on oil prices…
oil wti futures usd september

US Dollar

usd september

Nifty Heatmap

CNX NIFTY.2015-08-31.2015-09-30

Index Returns

index.performance.2015-08-31.2015-09-30

Market Cap Decile Performance

Decile Mkt. Cap. Adv/Decl
1 (micro) -1.65% 68/63
2 -0.57% 71/59
3 -1.01% 61/69
4 +0.97% 64/67
5 +0.84% 68/62
6 -2.22% 60/71
7 -1.06% 63/68
8 +1.48% 62/68
9 +0.03% 67/64
10 (mega) -2.04% 64/67
Large caps bore the brunt of the selloff…

Top Winners and Losers

SRTRANSFIN +13.78%
RPOWER +14.67%
RELCAPITAL +19.59%
MOTHERSUMI -24.10%
BHARATFORG -22.29%
BOSCHLTD -16.47%
Auto stocks got shellacked because nobody knows how deep the Volkswagen scandal runs…

ETF Performance

BANKBEES +0.16%
NIFTYBEES -0.82%
GOLDBEES -1.82%
JUNIORBEES -2.38%
CPSEETF -3.21%
PSUBNKBEES -4.22%
INFRABEES -6.32%
Hopefully, the 50bps rate cut will breathe some life into these…

Yield Curve

yieldCurve.2015-08-31.2015-09-30

Bond Indices

Sub Index Change in YTM Total Return(%)
0 5 -0.28 +1.35%
5 10 -0.23 +1.85%
10 15 -0.15 +1.77%
15 20 -0.21 +2.54%
20 30 -0.20 +2.77%
Bonds rallied on the back of rate cuts. Is the bulk of the move done?

Investment Theme Performance

Equity Mutual Funds

Bond Mutual Funds

Foreign Institutional Investments

fii-investments.2014-01-01.2015-09-30

Domestic Institutional Investments

dii-investments.2014-01-01.2015-09-30

Thought to sum up the month

There are four types of investment returns:

  • Consistently bad.
  • Mostly bad and occasionally good.
  • Mostly decent and occasionally good.
  • Consistently good and fraudulent.

Look at the long-term history of great investors, and you’ll find they occupy the third category.

Source: Good Investing Hurts

Monthly Recap: The Unreliable Experts

world.2015-07-31.2015-08-31

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) -11.53%
CAC(FRA) -10.53%
UKX(GBR) -8.87%
NKY(JPN) -11.75%
SPX(USA) -6.44%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) -8.12%
INMEX(MEX) -2.52%
NGSEINDX(NGA) -0.09%
XU030(TUR) -7.15%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) -8.27%
SHCOMP(CHN) -13.57%
NIFTY(IND) -8.82%
INDEXCF(RUS) +2.53%
TOP40(ZAF) -6.33%

Commodities

Energy
Brent Crude Oil +1.55%
RBOB Gasoline -20.43%
Heating Oil +5.31%
Natural Gas -0.11%
WTI Crude Oil +2.13%
Ethanol -2.80%
Metals
Copper -2.53%
Gold 100oz +3.98%
Platinum +2.33%
Silver 5000oz -2.01%
Palladium -3.68%

Currencies

USDEUR:-2.46% USDJPY:-3.07%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) +4.13%
USDMXN(MEX) +4.51%
USDNGN(NGA) +0.18%
USDTRY(TUR) +5.21%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) +5.63%
USDCNY(CHN) +2.49%
USDINR(IND) +3.39%
USDRUB(RUS) +5.67%
USDZAR(ZAF) +5.15%
Agricultural
Coffee (Robusta) -10.83%
White Sugar -3.49%
Coffee (Arabica) -4.25%
Cotton -0.87%
Orange Juice +5.07%
Sugar #11 -3.86%
Wheat -2.76%
Cattle -1.92%
Cocoa -1.60%
Corn -2.89%
Feeder Cattle -4.25%
Soybeans -8.96%
Lean Hogs -13.32%
Lumber -7.58%
Soybean Meal -9.85%

Credit Indices

Index Change
Markit CDX EM -1.30%
Markit CDX NA HY -1.26%
Markit CDX NA IG +8.97%
Markit iTraxx Asia ex-Japan IG +20.22%
Markit iTraxx Australia +10.82%
Markit iTraxx Europe +7.90%
Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover +35.71%
Markit iTraxx Japan +3.62%
Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe +0.08%
Markit LCDX (Loan CDS) -0.14%
Markit MCDX (Municipal CDS) +3.22%
All major indices suffered huge losses. The dollar rallied, commodities fell and investors fled risk-assets.

Oil

oil_fut_chart_august_2015

With oil down about 57 per cent from its peak last June, and copper and iron ore down about 50 and 70 per cent respectively from their peaks in early 2011, it has become clear that story was profoundly misleading. Whether or not the supercycle exists, the regular old cycle definitely does, and there is nothing very super about it at all.

Why the commodities super cycle was a myth

USDINR

usd_fut_chart_august_2015

Nifty Heatmap

CNX NIFTY.2015-07-31.2015-08-31

Index Returns

index.performance.2015-07-31.2015-08-31

Market Cap Decile Performance

Decile Mkt. Cap. Adv/Decl
1 (micro) -10.15% 69/68
2 -9.65% 53/83
3 -11.73% 45/92
4 -10.91% 50/86
5 -11.00% 46/90
6 -8.71% 51/86
7 -6.63% 56/80
8 -5.76% 57/80
9 -6.01% 61/75
10 (mega) -4.25% 72/65
Midcaps bore the brunt…

Top Winners and Losers

LUPIN +14.08%
GLENMARK +14.12%
DIVISLAB +20.52%
VEDL -24.26%
HINDALCO -23.91%
RELCAPITAL -19.41%
Pharma vastly out-performed the cyclicals and commodity players…

ETF Performance

GOLDBEES +7.12%
JUNIORBEES -3.41%
NIFTYBEES -6.44%
PSUBNKBEES -6.53%
BANKBEES -8.55%
INFRABEES -10.30%
CPSEETF -12.67%
Gold caught a safe-haven bid…

Yield Curve

yieldCurve.2015-07-31.2015-08-31

Bond Indices

Sub Index Change in YTM Total Return(%)
0 5 -0.01 +0.73%
5 10 -0.03 +0.77%
10 15 -0.08 +1.25%
15 20 -0.04 +0.98%
20 30 -0.02 +0.89%
Yields went down a smidgen…

Investment Theme Performance

The only strategy that ended in the green was low-vol…

Equity Mutual Funds

Bond Mutual Funds

FII and DII Activity

fii-investments.2014-01-01.2015-08-31

dii-investments.2014-01-01.2015-08-31

FII’s pulled out more than $2.5bn from the Indian markets. DII’s barely lent any support.

Thought to sum up the month

What ails the truth is that it is mainly uncomfortable, and often dull. The human mind seeks something more amusing, and more caressing.

Source: The Unreliable Experts: getting in the way of outstanding performance

Monthly Recap: How’s your macro?

world.2015-06-30.2015-07-31

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) +3.33%
CAC(FRA) +6.10%
UKX(GBR) +2.69%
NKY(JPN) +1.73%
SPX(USA) +1.43%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) -2.20%
INMEX(MEX) -0.52%
NGSEINDX(NGA) -9.79%
XU030(TUR) -2.49%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) -4.21%
SHCOMP(CHN) -14.34%
NIFTY(IND) +1.96%
INDEXCF(RUS) +0.87%
TOP40(ZAF) +0.90%

Commodities

Energy
Ethanol -6.07%
Brent Crude Oil -17.93%
Heating Oil -16.11%
Natural Gas -3.76%
RBOB Gasoline -15.34%
WTI Crude Oil -21.37%
Metals
Gold 100oz -6.50%
Copper -9.92%
Platinum -8.90%
Silver 5000oz -4.49%
Palladium -9.26%

Currencies

USDEUR:+1.41% USDJPY:+1.27%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) +1.50%
USDMXN(MEX) +2.68%
USDNGN(NGA) -0.13%
USDTRY(TUR) +3.48%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) +10.15%
USDCNY(CHN) +0.14%
USDINR(IND) +0.76%
USDRUB(RUS) +11.89%
USDZAR(ZAF) +4.18%
Agricultural
Cocoa -0.56%
Coffee (Arabica) -3.75%
Lean Hogs +3.36%
Cattle -0.95%
Corn -10.04%
Cotton -2.35%
Orange Juice +7.45%
Wheat -18.75%
White Sugar -5.81%
Coffee (Robusta) -13.05%
Feeder Cattle -1.44%
Lumber -12.67%
Soybean Meal -1.42%
Soybeans -7.29%
Sugar #11 -8.91%

Credit Indices

Index Change
Markit CDX EM +0.28%
Markit CDX NA HY -0.15%
Markit CDX NA IG -1.71%
Markit iTraxx Asia ex-Japan IG -3.67%
Markit iTraxx Australia -2.15%
Markit iTraxx Europe -13.99%
Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover -47.76%
Markit iTraxx Japan -5.14%
Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe -2.34%
Markit LCDX (Loan CDS) -0.06%
Markit MCDX (Municipal CDS) -4.61%
Indian midcaps rallied; the bottom fell out of commodities and oil; China was a total shit show. Will the midcap party continue into August?

Index Returns

index.performance.2015-06-30.2015-07-31

Market Cap Decile Performance

Decile Mkt. Cap. Adv/Decl
1 (micro) +17.40% 76/54
2 +22.15% 87/41
3 +33.99% 97/33
4 +17.22% 98/31
5 +17.19% 89/40
6 +12.51% 85/45
7 +10.13% 78/51
8 +8.94% 81/49
9 +4.99% 74/55
10 (mega) +2.06% 64/66
Midcaps and smallcaps put in some impressive numbers…

Top Winners and Losers

ABIRLANUVO +23.12%
BANKBARODA +23.14%
HINDPETRO +26.40%
VEDL -25.21%
TATASTEEL -18.94%
NMDC -14.15%
Commodities were the most-hated sector…

ETF Performance

JUNIORBEES +6.42%
PSUBNKBEES +6.31%
BANKBEES +2.90%
NIFTYBEES +2.43%
INFRABEES +1.25%
CPSEETF -1.48%
GOLDBEES -6.20%
Hopefully, a crashing gold will wean us off it?

Yield Curve

yield Curve.2015-06-30.2015-07-31

Bond Indices

Sub Index Change in YTM Total Return(%)
0 5 -0.08 +0.88%
5 10 -0.09 +1.12%
10 15 -0.05 +1.04%
15 20 -0.10 +1.57%
20 30 -0.15 +2.20%
The long-end rallied…

Investment Theme Performance

Equity Mutual Funds

Bond Mutual Funds

Thought to sum up the month

Hanging on every twist and turn of the headlines are a group of folks we call “macro tourists.” They are a terrific source of chatter at any cocktail party — such as “Tsipras may have just doomed the Greeks for the next decade.”

Why does this matter to investors? For two reasons: First, macro tourists are everywhere; and second, they seem to be terrible stewards of your capital.

Market-moving headlines would seem to present an opportunity to capi­tal­ize on the potential volatility that often follows.

But here’s the big risk for investors who try to game the headlines: Figuring out what just happened is hard enough; the macro investor must guess at what’s ahead — outcomes for the near and far future as well as the market reaction to those outcomes.

It’s no wonder the macro tourists, both professional manager and amateur investor alike, have been for the most part unsuccessful.

Source: Curse of the Macro Tourist