Monthly Recap: The Unreliable Experts

world.2015-07-31.2015-08-31

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) -11.53%
CAC(FRA) -10.53%
UKX(GBR) -8.87%
NKY(JPN) -11.75%
SPX(USA) -6.44%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) -8.12%
INMEX(MEX) -2.52%
NGSEINDX(NGA) -0.09%
XU030(TUR) -7.15%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) -8.27%
SHCOMP(CHN) -13.57%
NIFTY(IND) -8.82%
INDEXCF(RUS) +2.53%
TOP40(ZAF) -6.33%

Commodities

Energy
Brent Crude Oil +1.55%
RBOB Gasoline -20.43%
Heating Oil +5.31%
Natural Gas -0.11%
WTI Crude Oil +2.13%
Ethanol -2.80%
Metals
Copper -2.53%
Gold 100oz +3.98%
Platinum +2.33%
Silver 5000oz -2.01%
Palladium -3.68%

Currencies

USDEUR:-2.46% USDJPY:-3.07%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) +4.13%
USDMXN(MEX) +4.51%
USDNGN(NGA) +0.18%
USDTRY(TUR) +5.21%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) +5.63%
USDCNY(CHN) +2.49%
USDINR(IND) +3.39%
USDRUB(RUS) +5.67%
USDZAR(ZAF) +5.15%
Agricultural
Coffee (Robusta) -10.83%
White Sugar -3.49%
Coffee (Arabica) -4.25%
Cotton -0.87%
Orange Juice +5.07%
Sugar #11 -3.86%
Wheat -2.76%
Cattle -1.92%
Cocoa -1.60%
Corn -2.89%
Feeder Cattle -4.25%
Soybeans -8.96%
Lean Hogs -13.32%
Lumber -7.58%
Soybean Meal -9.85%

Credit Indices

Index Change
Markit CDX EM -1.30%
Markit CDX NA HY -1.26%
Markit CDX NA IG +8.97%
Markit iTraxx Asia ex-Japan IG +20.22%
Markit iTraxx Australia +10.82%
Markit iTraxx Europe +7.90%
Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover +35.71%
Markit iTraxx Japan +3.62%
Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe +0.08%
Markit LCDX (Loan CDS) -0.14%
Markit MCDX (Municipal CDS) +3.22%
All major indices suffered huge losses. The dollar rallied, commodities fell and investors fled risk-assets.

Oil

oil_fut_chart_august_2015

With oil down about 57 per cent from its peak last June, and copper and iron ore down about 50 and 70 per cent respectively from their peaks in early 2011, it has become clear that story was profoundly misleading. Whether or not the supercycle exists, the regular old cycle definitely does, and there is nothing very super about it at all.

Why the commodities super cycle was a myth

USDINR

usd_fut_chart_august_2015

Nifty Heatmap

CNX NIFTY.2015-07-31.2015-08-31

Index Returns

index.performance.2015-07-31.2015-08-31

Market Cap Decile Performance

Decile Mkt. Cap. Adv/Decl
1 (micro) -10.15% 69/68
2 -9.65% 53/83
3 -11.73% 45/92
4 -10.91% 50/86
5 -11.00% 46/90
6 -8.71% 51/86
7 -6.63% 56/80
8 -5.76% 57/80
9 -6.01% 61/75
10 (mega) -4.25% 72/65
Midcaps bore the brunt…

Top Winners and Losers

LUPIN +14.08%
GLENMARK +14.12%
DIVISLAB +20.52%
VEDL -24.26%
HINDALCO -23.91%
RELCAPITAL -19.41%
Pharma vastly out-performed the cyclicals and commodity players…

ETF Performance

GOLDBEES +7.12%
JUNIORBEES -3.41%
NIFTYBEES -6.44%
PSUBNKBEES -6.53%
BANKBEES -8.55%
INFRABEES -10.30%
CPSEETF -12.67%
Gold caught a safe-haven bid…

Yield Curve

yieldCurve.2015-07-31.2015-08-31

Bond Indices

Sub Index Change in YTM Total Return(%)
0 5 -0.01 +0.73%
5 10 -0.03 +0.77%
10 15 -0.08 +1.25%
15 20 -0.04 +0.98%
20 30 -0.02 +0.89%
Yields went down a smidgen…

Investment Theme Performance

The only strategy that ended in the green was low-vol…

Equity Mutual Funds

Bond Mutual Funds

FII and DII Activity

fii-investments.2014-01-01.2015-08-31

dii-investments.2014-01-01.2015-08-31

FII’s pulled out more than $2.5bn from the Indian markets. DII’s barely lent any support.

Thought to sum up the month

What ails the truth is that it is mainly uncomfortable, and often dull. The human mind seeks something more amusing, and more caressing.

Source: The Unreliable Experts: getting in the way of outstanding performance

Comments are closed, but trackbacks and pingbacks are open.