Tag: monthly

Monthly Recap: Diwali

world-2016-09-30-2016-10-28

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) +1.76%
CAC(FRA) +2.26%
UKX(GBR) +1.40%
NKY(JPN) +5.73%
SPX(USA) -2.09%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) +1.03%
INMEX(MEX) +1.03%
NGSEINDX(NGA) -3.67%
XU030(TUR) +2.20%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) +9.43%
SHCOMP(CHN) +2.84%
NIFTY(IND) +0.17%
INDEXCF(RUS) +0.19%
TOP40(ZAF) -2.46%

Commodities

Energy
Brent Crude Oil +0.77%
RBOB Gasoline -1.77%
Heating Oil +0.86%
Natural Gas +7.60%
WTI Crude Oil +0.50%
Ethanol +6.33%
Metals
Gold 100oz -2.92%
Silver 5000oz -7.29%
Copper -0.90%
Palladium -14.45%
Platinum -5.33%

Currencies

USDEUR:+2.39% USDJPY:+3.35%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) +0.02%
USDMXN(MEX) -2.12%
USDNGN(NGA) +0.56%
USDTRY(TUR) +3.62%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) -1.42%
USDCNY(CHN) +1.47%
USDINR(IND) +0.25%
USDRUB(RUS) +0.40%
USDZAR(ZAF) +0.30%
Agricultural
Coffee (Robusta) +9.13%
Orange Juice +5.51%
Soybean Meal +6.18%
Sugar #11 -1.77%
White Sugar -0.91%
Cattle +5.36%
Cocoa +2.47%
Coffee (Arabica) +9.39%
Soybeans +5.22%
Wheat +2.18%
Corn +5.13%
Cotton +4.12%
Feeder Cattle -1.18%
Lean Hogs -5.13%
Lumber -10.87%

International ETFs (USD)

global-etf-performance-2016-09-30-2016-10-28

Nifty Heatmap

nifty-50-2016-09-30-2016-10-28

Index Returns

index-performance-2016-09-30-2016-10-28
More: Sector Dashboard

Market Cap Decile Performance

deciles-perf-2016-10-28
More: Equal-Weight Deciles, Cap-Weight Deciles

ETF Performance

CPSEETF +7.79%
JUNIORBEES +3.40%
INFRABEES +2.70%
BANKBEES +0.81%
PSUBNKBEES +0.72%
NIFTYBEES +0.37%
Hope springs eternal for CPSEs?

Yield Curve

yieldcurve-2016-09-30-2016-10-28

Bond Indices

Sub Index Change in YTM Total Return(%)
0 5 -0.14 +0.91%
5 10 -0.06 +0.79%
10 15 -0.00 +0.57%
15 20 +0.01 +0.46%
20 30 +0.02 +0.38%
The short-end of the curve outperformed the long-end. Did dynamic bond funds catch the drift?

Investment Theme Performance

Equity Mutual Funds

Bond Mutual Funds

Institutional flows

fii-investments-2014-01-01-2016-10-31

dii-investments-2014-01-01-2016-10-31

Books I read this month

Cable Cowboy: John Malone and the Rise of the Modern Cable Business (Amazon, Notes)

The book tells the (unfinished) story of John Malone of TCI and Liberty Media fame. How the cable TV business got started in America, how it ended up being one of the largest private sector investments in infrastructure, the regulatory angles, tax dodging, etc. Interesting read.

Business Adventures: Twelve Classic Tales from the World of Wall Street (Amazon, Notes)

This one feels like the author published his diary. It may have felt profound to him, but there is not much to go on. The first and last stories were interesting. However, the book lacked an internal consistency that would have helped the reader make any sense of the rambling.

All the Devils Are Here: The Hidden History of the Financial Crisis (Amazon)

The book paints an accurate picture of the subprime crisis that brought down the world’s financial system. How it began, the main actors… basically the people behind the systemic crisis and its evolution. Interesting read for those who are still wondering about how it all happened.

Monthly Recap: September Surgery

world-2016-08-31-2016-09-30

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) -0.77%
CAC(FRA) +0.23%
UKX(GBR) +1.74%
NKY(JPN) -2.59%
SPX(USA) -0.01%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) -0.40%
INMEX(MEX) -1.01%
NGSEINDX(NGA) +2.67%
XU030(TUR) +0.51%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) +0.78%
SHCOMP(CHN) -2.62%
NIFTY(IND) -1.99%
INDEXCF(RUS) +0.33%
TOP40(ZAF) -1.81%

Commodities

Energy
Brent Crude Oil +6.74%
Ethanol +9.76%
WTI Crude Oil +7.49%
Heating Oil +8.72%
Natural Gas +0.73%
RBOB Gasoline +5.02%
Metals
Copper +6.28%
Gold 100oz +0.48%
Silver 5000oz +3.23%
Palladium +7.45%
Platinum -1.99%

Currencies

USDEUR:-0.71% USDJPY:-2.01%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) -1.72%
USDMXN(MEX) +2.88%
USDNGN(NGA) +0.24%
USDTRY(TUR) +1.43%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) +0.90%
USDCNY(CHN) -0.11%
USDINR(IND) -0.53%
USDRUB(RUS) -3.74%
USDZAR(ZAF) -6.46%
Agricultural
Cattle -11.66%
Coffee (Arabica) +4.31%
Corn +11.53%
Cotton +3.42%
Orange Juice +12.02%
Coffee (Robusta) +11.36%
Feeder Cattle -12.32%
Lean Hogs -21.49%
Lumber +7.60%
Soybean Meal -4.46%
Soybeans -0.52%
Sugar #11 +13.72%
Wheat +10.82%
Cocoa -5.72%
White Sugar +12.46%

International ETFs (USD)

global-etf-performance-2016-08-31-2016-09-30

Nifty Heatmap

nifty-50-2016-08-31-2016-09-30

Index Returns

index-performance-2016-08-31-2016-09-30
More: Sector Dashboard

Market Cap Decile Performance

deciles-perf-2016-09-30
More: Equal-Weight Deciles, Cap-Weight Deciles

ETF Performance

CPSEETF +1.36%
PSUBNKBEES +0.79%
GOLDBEES +0.47%
JUNIORBEES -0.35%
BANKBEES -1.96%
NIFTYBEES -1.96%
INFRABEES -5.41%
PSU Banks… because all is well!

Yield Curve

yieldcurve-2016-08-31-2016-09-30

Bond Indices

Sub Index Change in YTM Total Return(%)
0 5 -0.17 +1.01%
5 10 -0.14 +1.30%
10 15 -0.11 +1.35%
15 20 -0.09 +1.44%
20 30 -0.06 +1.22%
Bonds FTW!!!

Investment Theme Performance

Our full automated Momentum strategies (Momos) seem to be out performing their artisanal peers!

Equity Mutual Funds

Bond Mutual Funds

Institutional fund flows

FII’s continue to binge on Indian equities. When will the tide turn?

fii-investments-2014-01-01-2016-09-30

dii-investments-2014-01-01-2016-09-30

Book I read this month

The Most Important Thing – Uncommon Sense for the Thoughtful Investor by Howard Marks (Amazon)

Flamboyant and charismatic investors often get more press than the introverted ones. Howard Marks is one of those under-appreciated value investors who’s work we would do well to assimilate. I have been a fan of his “memos” for the longest time. The book adds historical context to his memos and provides a peek into his thought process. If you see some of Marks’ videos, he comes across as a droning, bitter, professor who keeps telling you that you are not smart enough to make it as a professional investor. If you can get past that vibe, there is a wealth of information you can tap into.

My notes on the book are on OneNote.

Monthly Recap: The August Rust

world.2016-07-29.2016-08-31

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) +2.88%
CAC(FRA) +0.91%
UKX(GBR) +0.78%
NKY(JPN) +2.16%
SPX(USA) -0.17%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) +2.27%
INMEX(MEX) +2.75%
NGSEINDX(NGA) -1.30%
XU030(TUR) +1.00%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) +0.94%
SHCOMP(CHN) +2.82%
NIFTY(IND) +1.58%
INDEXCF(RUS) +1.42%
TOP40(ZAF) +0.85%

Commodities

Energy
Natural Gas -0.69%
RBOB Gasoline -0.19%
Heating Oil +11.14%
Brent Crude Oil +10.07%
Ethanol -0.84%
WTI Crude Oil +7.29%
Metals
Copper -6.31%
Palladium -5.11%
Platinum -8.49%
Silver 5000oz -7.46%
Gold 100oz -3.40%

Currencies

USDEUR:+0.17% USDJPY:+1.57%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) +1.20%
USDMXN(MEX) +0.18%
USDNGN(NGA) -1.33%
USDTRY(TUR) -1.05%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) -0.46%
USDCNY(CHN) +0.68%
USDINR(IND) -0.01%
USDRUB(RUS) -1.05%
USDZAR(ZAF) +5.87%
Agricultural
Cocoa +2.62%
Coffee (Robusta) +0.66%
Lean Hogs -9.28%
Lumber -1.94%
Soybean Meal -9.74%
Soybeans -6.59%
Sugar #11 +6.33%
Wheat -10.45%
Coffee (Arabica) +0.38%
Cattle -5.85%
Corn -8.47%
Cotton -11.20%
Feeder Cattle +0.24%
Orange Juice +3.55%
White Sugar +1.48%

International ETFs (USD)

global.etf.performance.2016-07-29.2016-08-31

Nifty Heatmap

NIFTY 50.2016-07-29.2016-08-31

Index Returns

index.performance.2016-07-29.2016-08-31
More: Sector Dashboard

Market Cap Decile Performance

deciles.perf.2016-08-31
More: Equal-Weight Deciles, Cap-Weight Deciles

ETF Performance

PSUBNKBEES +8.23%
CPSEETF +4.57%
BANKBEES +4.07%
JUNIORBEES +2.43%
NIFTYBEES +1.71%
GOLDBEES +0.56%
INFRABEES +0.27%
PSU banks – because it is a new beginning!

Yield Curve

yieldCurve.2016-07-29.2016-08-31

Bond Indices

Sub Index Change in YTM Total Return(%)
0 5 -0.03 +0.67%
5 10 -0.10 +1.23%
10 15 -0.18 +1.99%
15 20 -0.16 +2.11%
20 30 -0.16 +2.45%
Long bond FTW!!!

Investment Theme Performance

Magic Formula got its mojo back…

Equity Mutual Funds

Bond Mutual Funds

Institutional Investment Trends

FII’s binged on both debt and equity this month…

fii-investments.2014-01-01.2016-07-29

dii-investments.2014-01-01.2016-07-29

Book of the Month

The Everything Store: Jeff Bezos and the Age of Amazon (Amazon)

The book is about the rise of Amazon and how it is more or less an extension of Jeff Bezos’ brain. After reading this, I realized how difficult it is going to be for our domestic e-commerce players to win against the Bezos juggernaut. It is a well written book and is a must-read for anyone who is interested in business strategy.

Monthly Recap: Jumpin’ July

world.2016-06-30.2016-07-29

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) +6.79%
CAC(FRA) +4.77%
UKX(GBR) +3.38%
NKY(JPN) +6.38%
SPX(USA) +3.77%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) +3.97%
INMEX(MEX) +2.86%
NGSEINDX(NGA) -5.36%
XU030(TUR) -2.19%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) +11.06%
SHCOMP(CHN) +1.70%
NIFTY(IND) +4.23%
INDEXCF(RUS) +2.83%
TOP40(ZAF) -0.13%

Commodities

Energy
RBOB Gasoline -13.15%
Brent Crude Oil -12.87%
Heating Oil -12.58%
WTI Crude Oil -16.00%
Ethanol -12.08%
Natural Gas -2.46%
Metals
Platinum +12.24%
Palladium +18.96%
Copper +1.83%
Gold 100oz +2.68%
Silver 5000oz +7.49%

Currencies

USDEUR:-0.97% USDJPY:-1.17%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) -0.74%
USDMXN(MEX) +2.62%
USDNGN(NGA) +14.05%
USDTRY(TUR) +3.74%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) +1.33%
USDCNY(CHN) -0.20%
USDINR(IND) -0.78%
USDRUB(RUS) +3.20%
USDZAR(ZAF) -5.90%
Agricultural
Cocoa -3.70%
Coffee (Arabica) +1.36%
Coffee (Robusta) +9.31%
Soybeans -12.32%
Cattle -5.67%
Lean Hogs -16.43%
Lumber +4.36%
Cotton +17.31%
Feeder Cattle -2.56%
Orange Juice -1.21%
Soybean Meal -13.91%
Corn -7.81%
Sugar #11 -6.04%
Wheat -5.16%
White Sugar -5.14%

International ETFs (USD)

global.etf.performance.2016-06-30.2016-07-29

Nifty Heatmap

NIFTY 50.2016-06-30.2016-07-29

Index Returns

index.performance.2016-06-30.2016-07-29
More: Sector Dashboard

Market Cap Decile Performance

deciles.perf.2016-07-29
More: Equal-Weight Deciles, Cap-Weight Deciles

ETF Performance

JUNIORBEES +9.46%
CPSEETF +7.74%
BANKBEES +5.73%
PSUBNKBEES +4.86%
NIFTYBEES +4.54%
INFRABEES +4.39%
GOLDBEES +0.68%
CPSE ETF found a bid? Is this a dash-for-trash rally?

Yield Curve

yieldCurve.2016-06-30.2016-07-29

Bond Indices

Sub Index Change in YTM Total Return(%)
0 5 -0.24 +1.35%
5 10 -0.35 +2.45%
10 15 -0.33 +3.04%
15 20 -0.34 +3.71%
20 30 -0.34 +4.59%
The biggest story of this year is long-term bonds returning 4.5% in a month!

Investment Theme Performance

Will automated (momo) momentum strategies outperform their hand-crafted cousins? Interesting days ahead…

Equity Mutual Funds

Bond Mutual Funds

Institutional Flows

Bond inflows nowhere close to what occurred in March…

dii-investments.2014-01-01.2016-07-29

fii-investments.2014-01-01.2016-07-29

US Treasuries vs. Indian Gilts

More room for Indian Gilts to rally?
ust-ind-10yr-spread.2014-01-01

Book of the month

Sapiens: A Brief History of Humankind (Amazon)

_20160731_090441

Monthly Recap: JunExit

world.2016-05-31.2016-06-30

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) -4.74%
CAC(FRA) -5.14%
UKX(GBR) +5.57%
NKY(JPN) -9.01%
SPX(USA) +0.66%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) +3.64%
INMEX(MEX) +0.84%
NGSEINDX(NGA) +5.91%
XU030(TUR) +0.49%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) +7.23%
SHCOMP(CHN) +0.54%
NIFTY(IND) +2.06%
INDEXCF(RUS) -0.13%
TOP40(ZAF) -4.08%

Commodities

Energy
Natural Gas +30.17%
WTI Crude Oil +0.16%
Ethanol -1.09%
RBOB Gasoline -5.50%
Heating Oil +2.04%
Brent Crude Oil +1.21%
Metals
Copper +6.22%
Platinum +8.45%
Silver 5000oz +23.75%
Gold 100oz +10.46%
Palladium +10.93%

Currencies

USDEUR:+0.00% USDJPY:-7.26%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) -3.91%
USDMXN(MEX) -0.63%
USDNGN(NGA) +41.74%
USDTRY(TUR) -1.71%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) -10.71%
USDCNY(CHN) +1.13%
USDINR(IND) +0.09%
USDRUB(RUS) -3.88%
USDZAR(ZAF) -7.32%
Agricultural
Cocoa +7.39%
Soybean Meal +2.12%
Soybeans +8.41%
Cattle -6.71%
Lean Hogs +2.70%
Lumber +1.68%
Wheat -10.73%
Coffee (Robusta) +4.29%
Corn -12.72%
Cotton -1.80%
White Sugar +17.27%
Coffee (Arabica) +19.34%
Feeder Cattle -3.30%
Orange Juice +19.45%
Sugar #11 +19.14%

Credit Indices

Index Change
Markit CDX EM +0.24%
Markit CDX NA HY -0.98%
Markit CDX NA IG +8.31%
Markit iTraxx Asia ex-Japan IG +6.85%
Markit iTraxx Australia +8.24%
Markit iTraxx Europe +22.86%
Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover +86.86%
Markit iTraxx Japan +8.40%
Markit MCDX (Municipal CDS) +5.17%
Brexit! Rexit! What, me worry?

International ETFs (USD)

global.etf.performance.2016-05-31.2016-06-30

Nifty Heatmap

NIFTY 50.2016-05-31.2016-06-30

Index Returns

index.performance.2016-05-31.2016-06-30
Check out our dashboard here.

Market Cap Decile Performance

deciles.perf.2016-06-30

Top Winners and Losers

VEDL +21.56%
BAJAJFINSV +27.51%
PNB +34.05%
ASHOKLEY -9.73%
INFRATEL -7.88%
UPL -7.62%
Have commodities bottomed out? Is the government’s bank capitalization and merger plan a “game changer?”

ETF Performance

PSUBNKBEES +10.71%
GOLDBEES +4.98%
CPSEETF +4.70%
JUNIORBEES +3.98%
BANKBEES +2.69%
NIFTYBEES +1.96%
INFRABEES +1.52%
PSU banks – because tax payer money is free!

Yield Curve

yieldCurve.2016-05-31.2016-06-30

Bond Indices

Sub Index Change in YTM Total Return(%)
0 5 -0.07 +0.83%
5 10 -0.07 +0.98%
10 15 -0.01 +0.71%
15 20 -0.08 +1.37%
20 30 -0.12 +1.88%
Bonds rallied across the board. Note the shift in the yield curve.

Investment Theme Performance

Momentum strategies regained their thrones after spending months in the boondocks…

Equity Mutual Funds

Bond Mutual Funds

Institutional flows

FIIs sold out bonds and bought into equities. DIIs did the opposite…
fii-investments.2014-01-01.2016-06-30

dii-investments.2014-01-01.2016-06-30

US Treasuries

ust-yield-curve.2011-01-18

Looks like Indian bonds are no where near overbought compared to US Treasuries.
ust-ind-10yr-spread.2011-01-18

Book of the month

Black Box Thinking: Why Most People Never Learn from Their Mistakes–But Some Do (Amazon)

The only way to improve decision making is to record everything and use the telemetry to deconstruct failure. Once we know why something went wrong, we can go back to improving the decision making process. Much like how every airline crash is an opportunity to learn and improve flight safety. Investors will find a lot of takeaways from this book.