Category: Your Money

Pain is proportional to Frequency of Observations

Midcaps, proxied by the NIFTY MID100 FREE index, have given an annualized return of over 18% from 2001 through August-2016. That is a 12x return over 15 years. Sounds good when you say it that way, doesn’t it? Take a look at how Rs. 1 has grown over the years:

cumulative.returns.NIFTY MID100 FREE

Now, zoom into the bottom-most chart – the drawdown chart:

drawdown.p2p.NIFTY MID100 FREE

The point-to-point drawdown chart is horrific enough. Investors saw a 70% loss during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) in 2008/09. 30% drawdowns occur with regular frequency. Investors make it worse by looking at their investments too often.

For example, if an investor saw the returns of his portfolio once every 1000 days (4-5 years,) he would not have seen more than 35 drawdowns during the period. Move the observation to every 200 days (about a year,) and the number ticks up to 138. The more you check your portfolio, more the number of losses that you see:

drawdowns.NIFTY MID100 FREE

New investors have rightfully taken the SIP route to saving in equities. However, they would be doing themselves a disservice if they expect a fixed-deposit like consistency in equity returns.

For the quant inclined, code for this analysis can be found on Github.

Related: Definition: Drawdown

Monthly Recap: The August Rust

world.2016-07-29.2016-08-31

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) +2.88%
CAC(FRA) +0.91%
UKX(GBR) +0.78%
NKY(JPN) +2.16%
SPX(USA) -0.17%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) +2.27%
INMEX(MEX) +2.75%
NGSEINDX(NGA) -1.30%
XU030(TUR) +1.00%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) +0.94%
SHCOMP(CHN) +2.82%
NIFTY(IND) +1.58%
INDEXCF(RUS) +1.42%
TOP40(ZAF) +0.85%

Commodities

Energy
Natural Gas -0.69%
RBOB Gasoline -0.19%
Heating Oil +11.14%
Brent Crude Oil +10.07%
Ethanol -0.84%
WTI Crude Oil +7.29%
Metals
Copper -6.31%
Palladium -5.11%
Platinum -8.49%
Silver 5000oz -7.46%
Gold 100oz -3.40%

Currencies

USDEUR:+0.17% USDJPY:+1.57%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) +1.20%
USDMXN(MEX) +0.18%
USDNGN(NGA) -1.33%
USDTRY(TUR) -1.05%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) -0.46%
USDCNY(CHN) +0.68%
USDINR(IND) -0.01%
USDRUB(RUS) -1.05%
USDZAR(ZAF) +5.87%
Agricultural
Cocoa +2.62%
Coffee (Robusta) +0.66%
Lean Hogs -9.28%
Lumber -1.94%
Soybean Meal -9.74%
Soybeans -6.59%
Sugar #11 +6.33%
Wheat -10.45%
Coffee (Arabica) +0.38%
Cattle -5.85%
Corn -8.47%
Cotton -11.20%
Feeder Cattle +0.24%
Orange Juice +3.55%
White Sugar +1.48%

International ETFs (USD)

global.etf.performance.2016-07-29.2016-08-31

Nifty Heatmap

NIFTY 50.2016-07-29.2016-08-31

Index Returns

index.performance.2016-07-29.2016-08-31
More: Sector Dashboard

Market Cap Decile Performance

deciles.perf.2016-08-31
More: Equal-Weight Deciles, Cap-Weight Deciles

ETF Performance

PSUBNKBEES +8.23%
CPSEETF +4.57%
BANKBEES +4.07%
JUNIORBEES +2.43%
NIFTYBEES +1.71%
GOLDBEES +0.56%
INFRABEES +0.27%
PSU banks – because it is a new beginning!

Yield Curve

yieldCurve.2016-07-29.2016-08-31

Bond Indices

Sub Index Change in YTM Total Return(%)
0 5 -0.03 +0.67%
5 10 -0.10 +1.23%
10 15 -0.18 +1.99%
15 20 -0.16 +2.11%
20 30 -0.16 +2.45%
Long bond FTW!!!

Investment Theme Performance

Magic Formula got its mojo back…

Equity Mutual Funds

Bond Mutual Funds

Institutional Investment Trends

FII’s binged on both debt and equity this month…

fii-investments.2014-01-01.2016-07-29

dii-investments.2014-01-01.2016-07-29

Book of the Month

The Everything Store: Jeff Bezos and the Age of Amazon (Amazon)

The book is about the rise of Amazon and how it is more or less an extension of Jeff Bezos’ brain. After reading this, I realized how difficult it is going to be for our domestic e-commerce players to win against the Bezos juggernaut. It is a well written book and is a must-read for anyone who is interested in business strategy.

Update 1: Mid N Small vs. Value Discovery

Back in January last year, we had taken a brief look at Invesco’s India Mid N Small Cap Fund and ICICI Prudential Value Discovery Fund and concluded that even through Religare is marginally better than ICICI, there was nothing there to swing the decision one way or the other. Here’s an update:

Between 2015-01-01 and 2016-08-11, Invesco India MID N SMALL CAP Fund has returned a cumulative 12.59% with an IRR of 7.64% vs. ICICI Prudential Value Discovery Fund’s cumulative return of 12.99% and an IRR of 7.88%. (http://svz.bz/2bf7jzy)

In terms of performance, they are still on top of each other. However, Value Discovery has had shallower draw-downs, making it an easier fund to hold.

Invesco India MID N SMALL CAP Fund and ICICI Prudential Value Discovery Fund drawdown

Invesco’s fund is way smaller than ICICI’s. For those who prefer a smaller fund, Invesco’s would be a way to go. However, overall, the status quo remains.

Theme: Acceleration Update 08.08.2016

held since returns (%)
MANAPPURAM
2016-Mar-02
+178.20
KAKATCEM
2016-May-09
-1.16
MAITHANALL
2016-May-09
+86.45
VEDL
2016-May-09
+61.47
SATHAISPAT
2016-May-09
+30.34
YESBANK
2016-Jun-08
+18.73
SHARDACROP
2016-Jun-08
-3.26
TATAMETALI
2016-Jun-08
+37.82
KIRIINDUS
2016-Jun-08
+55.37
HINDALCO
2016-Jun-08
+37.84
DCBBANK
2016-Jun-08
+18.99
HCIL
2016-Jun-08
+76.19
MANGLMCEM
2016-Jul-04
+2.50
MUTHOOTFIN
2016-Jul-04
+24.13
SUDARSCHEM
2016-Jul-04
+49.76
SHILPI
2016-Jul-04
+0.28
IOLCP
2016-Jul-04
-6.37
CENTRALBK
2016-Jul-04
-9.25
USHAMART
2016-Jul-04
-1.46
RANASUG
2016-Jul-04
-7.62
Since the last rebalance on 2016-Jul-04 till 2016-Aug-05, this strategy has returned +8.30%

You can find more details about the Acceleration Theme here.

Theme: Velocity Update 08.08.2016

held since returns (%)
TRIVENI
2016-Feb-02
+26.01
BODALCHEM
2016-Apr-04
+52.26
KAKATCEM
2016-May-09
-1.15
RUSHIL
2016-May-09
+19.23
DWARKESH
2016-May-09
+46.61
GNFC
2016-May-09
+29.19
BALRAMCHIN
2016-May-09
+18.14
DALMIASUG
2016-May-09
+59.38
DHAMPURSUG
2016-May-09
+38.12
TATAMETALI
2016-Jun-08
+37.37
MAITHANALL
2016-Jun-08
+57.83
KIRIINDUS
2016-Jun-08
+55.33
TRIGYN
2016-Jun-08
-18.59
SHILPI
2016-Jun-08
+39.95
MANAPPURAM
2016-Jun-08
+51.81
ANDHRSUGAR
2016-Jul-04
-3.71
ALLSEC
2016-Jul-04
+5.34
GEECEE
2016-Jul-04
-16.58
KCPSUGIND
2016-Jul-04
-10.11
RANASUG
2016-Jul-04
-8.56
Since the last rebalance on 2016-Jul-04 till 2016-Aug-05, this strategy has returned +0.07%

You can find more details about the Velocity Theme here.