Author: shyam

Weekly Recap 18.04.2015

world.2015-4-10.2015-4-17

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) -5.54%
CAC(FRA) -1.85%
UKX(GBR) -1.34%
NKY(JPN) -1.28%
SPX(USA) -0.98%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) -1.47%
INMEX(MEX) +0.21%
NGSEINDX(NGA) +0.22%
XU030(TUR) -0.29%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) -0.40%
SHCOMP(CHN) +6.27%
NIFTY(IND) -1.99%
INDEXCF(RUS) -0.03%
TOP40(ZAF) +0.76%

Commodities

Energy
Brent Crude Oil +10.29%
RBOB Gasoline +7.53%
WTI Crude Oil +9.18%
Ethanol +3.14%
Natural Gas +5.26%
Heating Oil +7.64%
Metals
Copper +1.82%
Gold 100oz -0.26%
Silver 5000oz +0.62%
Palladium +1.02%
Platinum -0.04%

Currencies

USDEUR:-2.00% USDJPY:-1.11%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) -0.60%
USDMXN(MEX) +0.89%
USDNGN(NGA) -0.04%
USDTRY(TUR) +1.81%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) -1.57%
USDCNY(CHN) -0.17%
USDINR(IND) +0.07%
USDRUB(RUS) -2.66%
USDZAR(ZAF) +0.76%
Agricultural
Cotton -2.53%
Orange Juice +3.22%
Soybeans +1.79%
Cattle -0.63%
Cocoa -0.05%
Coffee (Robusta) -0.66%
Soybean Meal +1.71%
Corn +0.66%
Lean Hogs +12.76%
Sugar #11 +2.10%
Coffee (Arabica) +3.00%
Feeder Cattle +0.28%
Lumber -7.98%
Wheat -6.23%
White Sugar +1.78%

Credit Indices

Index Change
Markit CDX EM -0.13%
Markit CDX NA HY -0.08%
Markit CDX NA IG +0.10%
Markit iTraxx Asia ex-Japan IG +0.96%
Markit iTraxx Australia +0.03%
Markit iTraxx Europe -0.46%
Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover +1.35%
Markit iTraxx Japan -3.42%
Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe +0.69%
Markit LCDX (Loan CDS) -0.02%
Markit MCDX (Municipal CDS) -2.29%
Nifty looks benign compared to what hit the broader market. Friday was especially brutal for the German DAX and the negative sentiment might spillover to the Asian markets on Monday. However, the Shanghai Composite seems to be on another planet altogether…

Nifty Heatmap

CNX NIFTY.2015-4-10.2015-4-17

Index Returns

index performance.2015-4-10.2015-4-17

Advance Decline

advance.decline.line2.2015-4-10.2015-4-17

Market Cap Decile Performance

Decile Mkt. Cap. Adv/Decl
1 (micro) -2.71% 76/59
2 +3.43% 71/63
3 +2.70% 74/60
4 +2.47% 69/66
5 +1.37% 70/64
6 +1.34% 66/68
7 +0.36% 66/69
8 +0.41% 73/61
9 -0.36% 69/65
10 (mega) -0.99% 67/68
Large caps got hammered…

Top Winners and Losers

SSLT +4.40%
ONGC +6.54%
OIL +11.39%
BHARATFORG -10.11%
LUPIN -9.88%
SRTRANSFIN -9.75%
Bharat Forge and Lupin got shellacked by downgrades…

ETF Performance

PSUBNKBEES +3.39%
GOLDBEES +0.41%
CPSEETF -0.28%
INFRABEES -0.93%
NIFTYBEES -1.54%
BANKBEES -2.24%
JUNIORBEES -3.26%
Note the divergence between PSU banks and the overall banking sector. Puzzling…

Yield Curve

yield Curve.2015-4-10.2015-4-17

Bond Indices

Sub Index Change in YTM Total Return(%)
GSEC TB -0.01 +0.15%
GSEC SUB 1-3 -0.63 -0.31%
GSEC SUB 3-8 -0.06 -0.04%
GSEC SUB 8 +0.01 +0.24%
The long-end caught a bid…

Investment Theme Performance

Equity Mutual Funds

Bond Mutual Funds

Trying to make up your mind about StockViz?

Check this video out:
https://youtu.be/kDTmvWDseMY

Holiday Bell 14.04.2015

Your world at 9am

world.2015-04-14

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) -0.29%
CAC(FRA) +0.26%
UKX(GBR) -0.36%
NKY(JPN) -0.04%
SPX(USA) -0.46%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) -0.17%
INMEX(MEX) +0.30%
NGSEINDX(NGA) +0.74%
XU030(TUR) -1.03%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) +0.05%
SHCOMP(CHN) +0.49%
NIFTY(IND) +0.61%
INDEXCF(RUS) +1.28%
TOP40(ZAF) +0.37%

Commodities

Energy
Brent Crude Oil +0.86%
Ethanol +0.00%
Heating Oil +0.85%
Natural Gas +0.48%
RBOB Gasoline +0.57%
WTI Crude Oil +0.98%
Metals
Copper +0.00%
Gold 100oz +0.11%
Palladium -0.74%
Platinum +0.29%
Silver 5000oz +0.00%

Currencies

USDEUR:-0.13% USDJPY:-0.24%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) +0.09%
USDMXN(MEX) -0.13%
USDNGN(NGA) -0.00%
USDTRY(TUR) -0.26%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) +1.49%
USDCNY(CHN) -0.03%
USDINR(IND) +0.30%
USDRUB(RUS) -0.29%
USDZAR(ZAF) -0.48%
Agricultural
Cattle +0.00%
Coffee (Robusta) +0.00%
Lumber -1.66%
Wheat +0.10%
White Sugar +0.00%
Corn +0.13%
Orange Juice -2.09%
Cocoa +0.00%
Coffee (Arabica) -0.74%
Cotton -0.08%
Feeder Cattle +0.00%
Lean Hogs +0.00%
Sugar #11 +1.17%
Soybean Meal +0.42%
Soybeans +0.21%

Must reads

S&P: India’s hard-won fiscal improvement is vulnerable to financial or commodity shock, because of high subsidy and public debt. (ET, #economy)

Consumer price inflation hit a three-month low of 5.17% in March. (FE, #inflation)

Soon, we will all be totally jobless:

  • Robot cook: A pair of dexterous robotic hands, suspended from the ceiling, assemble the ingredients, mix them, and cook them in pots and pans as required, on a hob or in an oven. When the dish is ready, they then serve it with the flourish of a professional. (Economist)
  • On-call scheduling: Software that forecasts staffing needs based on real-time sales and traffic information. (WSJ)
  • Proof that income inequality cannot be fixed by education: High-skilled workers have moved down the occupational ladder and have begun to perform jobs traditionally performed by lower-skilled workers. (NBER)

Markets closed today on account of Dr. Baba Saheb Ambedkar Jayanti

Weekly Recap: What Causes Recessions?

world.2015-04-1.2015-04-10

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) +3.11%
CAC(FRA) +3.52%
UKX(GBR) +4.12%
NKY(JPN) +4.59%
SPX(USA) +2.24%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) +0.45%
INMEX(MEX) +2.01%
NGSEINDX(NGA) +1.57%
XU030(TUR) +1.23%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) +3.42%
SHCOMP(CHN) +5.88%
NIFTY(IND) +2.26%
INDEXCF(RUS) -0.29%
TOP40(ZAF) +2.18%

Commodities

Energy
Heating Oil +1.02%
Brent Crude Oil +1.01%
Ethanol +1.03%
Natural Gas -4.35%
RBOB Gasoline -1.32%
WTI Crude Oil +3.27%
Metals
Silver 5000oz -1.20%
Palladium +3.72%
Platinum +0.60%
Copper -0.36%
Gold 100oz +0.17%

Currencies

USDEUR:+1.61% USDJPY:+0.50%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) -0.93%
USDMXN(MEX) +0.66%
USDNGN(NGA) +0.01%
USDTRY(TUR) +1.17%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) -3.03%
USDCNY(CHN) +0.17%
USDINR(IND) -0.28%
USDRUB(RUS) -6.78%
USDZAR(ZAF) +0.07%
Agricultural
Sugar #11 +4.55%
Coffee (Arabica) +1.08%
Coffee (Robusta) +6.95%
Corn -1.18%
Feeder Cattle -3.00%
White Sugar +2.18%
Cotton +3.65%
Lean Hogs -0.53%
Lumber -2.52%
Orange Juice -9.96%
Soybean Meal -6.64%
Soybeans -3.82%
Cattle -1.88%
Cocoa +0.99%
Wheat -0.57%

Credit Indices

Index Change
Markit CDX EM +1.47%
Markit CDX NA HY +0.49%
Markit CDX NA IG -3.14%
Markit iTraxx Asia ex-Japan IG -4.97%
Markit iTraxx Australia -4.50%
Markit iTraxx Europe -0.71%
Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover -11.21%
Markit iTraxx Japan -1.42%
Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe -0.56%
Markit LCDX (Loan CDS) -0.09%
Markit MCDX (Municipal CDS) -0.14%
It was a good week for the equity markets. Ruble strength came as a surprise and credit gauges were bullish.

Nifty Heatmap

CNX NIFTY.2015-04-1.2015-04-10

Index Returns

index performance.2015-04-1.2015-04-10

Sector Performance

sector performance.2015-04-1.2015-04-10

Advance Decline

advance.decline.line2.2015-04-1.2015-04-10

Market Cap Decile Performance

Decile Mkt. Cap. Adv/Decl
1 (micro) +10.90% 78/53
2 +11.87% 85/46
3 +12.22% 86/45
4 +11.65% 83/47
5 +9.90% 86/45
6 +8.36% 79/52
7 +8.67% 78/52
8 +5.18% 73/58
9 +4.27% 70/61
10 (mega) +3.25% 71/60
A broad-based rally saw mid- and small-caps out-perform the large-caps.

Top Winners and Losers

GODREJCP +10.90%
UBL +14.68%
RCOM +18.53%
LUPIN -3.60%
HDFC -3.49%
FEDERALBNK -3.38%
Rally in RCOM seems a bit premature…

ETF Performance

JUNIORBEES +4.48%
CPSEETF +3.62%
PSUBNKBEES +3.57%
NIFTYBEES +2.22%
BANKBEES +1.07%
INFRABEES +1.07%
GOLDBEES +0.83%
Green across the board, but gold under-performed equities…

Gold vs. Midcaps

You can send this to your mother-in-law. (http://svz.bz/1CCWifr)

Yield Curve

yield Curve.2015-03-31.2015-04-10

Bond Indices

Sub Index Change in YTM Total Return(%)
GSEC TB +0.01 +0.21%
GSEC SUB 1-3 +0.14 +0.19%
GSEC SUB 3-8 +0.09 -0.00%
GSEC SUB 8 +0.11 -0.48%
Rates went up a smidgen. One would think that with the Moody’s change in outlook to “Positive”, we would have seen a rally in bonds…

Investment Theme Performance

Equity Mutual Funds

Bond Mutual Funds

Thought for the weekend

The market adjusts by the price mechanism. If the cost of something goes up, the price goes up to match. If demand falls, the price drops until the market clears. But prices themselves can’t adjust in response to events. This phenomenon is called “sticky prices.”

When prices are even a little sticky, bursts of technological progress actually hurt the economy for a short while, by causing a burst of deflation, before eventually boosting growth.

Source: How sticky prices might be the cause of recessions

Monthly Recap: Robot in the China store?

world.2015-2-27.2015-3-31

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) +4.96%
CAC(FRA) +2.48%
UKX(GBR) -1.63%
NKY(JPN) +3.39%
SPX(USA) -2.02%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) +0.11%
INMEX(MEX) -0.19%
NGSEINDX(NGA) +18.68%
XU030(TUR) -2.85%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) +2.41%
SHCOMP(CHN) +16.72%
NIFTY(IND) -2.92%
INDEXCF(RUS) -4.43%
TOP40(ZAF) -2.36%

Commodities

Energy
Brent Crude Oil -10.09%
WTI Crude Oil +1.01%
Heating Oil -23.24%
Ethanol +9.68%
Natural Gas -0.59%
RBOB Gasoline -0.11%
Metals
Palladium -8.72%
Silver 5000oz +0.60%
Platinum -2.66%
Gold 100oz -1.21%
Copper +1.48%

Currencies

USDEUR:+2.88% USDJPY:-0.02%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) +0.63%
USDMXN(MEX) +0.50%
USDNGN(NGA) -1.89%
USDTRY(TUR) +3.30%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) +9.03%
USDCNY(CHN) -1.26%
USDINR(IND) +1.07%
USDRUB(RUS) -8.43%
USDZAR(ZAF) +2.31%
Agricultural
Corn +0.39%
Cotton -0.53%
Sugar #11 -8.55%
Wheat +3.22%
Coffee (Arabica) +2.84%
Coffee (Robusta) -5.17%
White Sugar -1.21%
Cattle +1.89%
Cocoa -4.76%
Lean Hogs -6.81%
Lumber -6.01%
Soybeans -4.13%
Feeder Cattle +9.48%
Orange Juice +2.60%
Soybean Meal -7.10%

Credit Indices

Index Change
Markit CDX EM -0.40%
Markit CDX NA IG +2.83%
Markit iTraxx Asia ex-Japan IG +1.68%
Markit iTraxx Australia -3.30%
Markit iTraxx Europe +1.27%
Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover +3.62%
Markit iTraxx Japan -7.25%
Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe -0.63%
Markit LCDX (Loan CDS) -0.10%
Markit MCDX (Municipal CDS) +3.28%
The Shanghai stock market was on fire this month while Europe was enjoying QE sugar highs. Nifty got dinged early on but recovered towards the end of the month.

Index Returns

index performance.2015-2-27.2015-3-31

Sector Performance

sector performance.2015-2-27.2015-3-31

Advance Decline

advance.decline.line2.2015-2-27.2015-3-31

Market Cap Decile Performance

Decile Mkt. Cap. Adv/Decl
1 (micro) -13.05% 64/69
2 -11.54% 52/81
3 -10.26% 47/86
4 -5.80% 62/71
5 -6.35% 57/75
6 -4.82% 55/78
7 -2.37% 66/67
8 -0.22% 76/57
9 +0.71% 67/66
10 (mega) -1.25% 68/65
Red ink across the board with small caps hit exceptionally hard…

Top Winners and Losers

SUNPHARMA +16.50%
AUROPHARMA +18.24%
IDEA +18.90%
JINDALSTEL -19.11%
ITC -17.23%
BANKINDIA -16.87%
Pharma broadly out-performed the rest…

ETF Performance

INFRABEES +0.77%
GOLDBEES -1.55%
JUNIORBEES -1.92%
CPSEETF -2.89%
NIFTYBEES -4.29%
BANKBEES -5.23%
PSUBNKBEES -9.61%
PSU banks – have they finally found a bottom?

Yield Curve

yield Curve.2015-2-27.2015-3-31

Interbank lending rates

mibor.30days.2015-3-31

Bond Indices

Sub Index Change in YTM Total Return(%)
GSEC TB -0.16 +0.73%
GSEC SUB 1-3 +0.05 +0.47%
GSEC SUB 3-8 +0.00 +0.87%
GSEC SUB 8 -0.01 +0.29%
Almost motionless…

Investment Theme Performance

Equity Mutual Funds

Bond Mutual Funds

Something to think about

China is letting low-cost production shift out of the country and is focusing instead on capital-intensive industries. Chinese labor costs have soared, undermining the calculus that brought all those jobs to China in the first place, and new robot technology is cheaper and easier to deploy than ever before.

But, if everybody has access to the same technology, why manufacture in China and pay shipping?

Source: WSJ

Quarterly Recap: January-March 2015

world.2014-12-31.2015-3-31

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) +22.03%
CAC(FRA) +17.81%
UKX(GBR) +3.15%
NKY(JPN) +9.07%
SPX(USA) -0.39%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) +4.42%
INMEX(MEX) +1.58%
NGSEINDX(NGA) -8.38%
XU030(TUR) -6.67%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) +2.29%
SHCOMP(CHN) +17.47%
NIFTY(IND) +2.28%
INDEXCF(RUS) +16.44%
TOP40(ZAF) +4.66%

Commodities

Energy
Natural Gas -10.56%
RBOB Gasoline +23.79%
Brent Crude Oil -3.03%
Ethanol -7.64%
Heating Oil -8.72%
WTI Crude Oil -10.42%
Metals
Gold 100oz -0.07%
Palladium -7.66%
Platinum -5.79%
Silver 5000oz +5.73%
Copper -3.17%

Currencies

USDEUR:+12.23% USDJPY:-0.20%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) +5.09%
USDMXN(MEX) +3.29%
USDNGN(NGA) +8.49%
USDTRY(TUR) +10.93%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) +20.28%
USDCNY(CHN) -0.15%
USDINR(IND) -0.87%
USDRUB(RUS) +0.00%
USDZAR(ZAF) +4.56%
Agricultural
Cocoa -3.70%
Lean Hogs -23.73%
Lumber -16.98%
Soybean Meal -9.07%
Cattle -2.64%
Coffee (Arabica) -21.60%
Corn -5.31%
Feeder Cattle -0.42%
Orange Juice -11.80%
Sugar #11 -17.63%
White Sugar -9.27%
Coffee (Robusta) -10.31%
Cotton +3.69%
Soybeans -3.67%
Wheat -12.19%

Credit Indices

Index Change
Markit CDX EM -2.01%
Markit CDX NA HY +1.59%
Markit CDX NA IG -1.99%
Markit iTraxx Asia ex-Japan IG -2.45%
Markit iTraxx Australia -11.70%
Markit iTraxx Europe -12.30%
Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover -79.11%
Markit iTraxx Japan -13.85%
Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe -4.07%
Markit LCDX (Loan CDS) +0.17%
Markit MCDX (Municipal CDS) +6.37%
The Nifty managed to squeeze out a dribble of green but was nowhere near the best performing market Germany that clocked in a QE induced +22.03% whopper.

Index Returns

index performance.2014-12-31.2015-3-31

Advance Decline

advance.decline.line2.2014-12-31.2015-3-31

Market Cap Decile Performance

Decile Mkt. Cap. Adv/Decl
1 (micro) -16.75% 60/74
2 -9.15% 54/79
3 -8.44% 55/78
4 -5.13% 55/78
5 -2.03% 52/81
6 +1.01% 65/68
7 +6.19% 69/64
8 +6.27% 76/57
9 +5.97% 72/61
10 (mega) +5.01% 68/66
Large-caps out-performed small-caps.

Top Winners and Losers

BHARATFORG +35.22%
LUPIN +40.65%
SIEMENS +53.97%
BANKINDIA -35.11%
UNIONBANK -34.63%
PNB -34.09%
PSU banks got rightfully pummeled. You know shit is bad when government employees stage a dharna on NPAs.

ETF Performance

INFRABEES +9.96%
JUNIORBEES +4.03%
NIFTYBEES +1.43%
GOLDBEES -2.65%
CPSEETF -3.16%
BANKBEES -4.48%
PSUBNKBEES -19.79%
Infrastructure was a surprise winner…

Yield Curve

yield Curve.2014-12-31.2015-3-31

Bond Indices

Sub Index Change in YTM Total Return(%)
GSEC TB -0.30 +2.03%
GSEC SUB 1-3 -0.53 +1.43%
GSEC SUB 3-8 -0.10 +2.45%
GSEC SUB 8 -0.19 +2.27%
Rate cuts and lower inflation gave bonds a boost…

Investment Theme Performance

Momentum worked, low volatility worked better. High beta was left behind. Quality-to-price out-performed midcaps…

Equity Mutual Funds

Bond Mutual Funds

Refactored Indices

Housekeeping

A number of cool things happened on StockViz this quarter:

  1. We released our Android app. It is plain torture to develop. Hope you find it useful.
  2. We moved our website to SSL to ensure that your browsing is encrypted.
  3. We have a tax report that our investors will find useful during filing time. We will soon have tools that will optimize your trades with taxes in mind.