Author: shyam

Monthly Recap: The Unreliable Experts

world.2015-07-31.2015-08-31

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) -11.53%
CAC(FRA) -10.53%
UKX(GBR) -8.87%
NKY(JPN) -11.75%
SPX(USA) -6.44%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) -8.12%
INMEX(MEX) -2.52%
NGSEINDX(NGA) -0.09%
XU030(TUR) -7.15%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) -8.27%
SHCOMP(CHN) -13.57%
NIFTY(IND) -8.82%
INDEXCF(RUS) +2.53%
TOP40(ZAF) -6.33%

Commodities

Energy
Brent Crude Oil +1.55%
RBOB Gasoline -20.43%
Heating Oil +5.31%
Natural Gas -0.11%
WTI Crude Oil +2.13%
Ethanol -2.80%
Metals
Copper -2.53%
Gold 100oz +3.98%
Platinum +2.33%
Silver 5000oz -2.01%
Palladium -3.68%

Currencies

USDEUR:-2.46% USDJPY:-3.07%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) +4.13%
USDMXN(MEX) +4.51%
USDNGN(NGA) +0.18%
USDTRY(TUR) +5.21%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) +5.63%
USDCNY(CHN) +2.49%
USDINR(IND) +3.39%
USDRUB(RUS) +5.67%
USDZAR(ZAF) +5.15%
Agricultural
Coffee (Robusta) -10.83%
White Sugar -3.49%
Coffee (Arabica) -4.25%
Cotton -0.87%
Orange Juice +5.07%
Sugar #11 -3.86%
Wheat -2.76%
Cattle -1.92%
Cocoa -1.60%
Corn -2.89%
Feeder Cattle -4.25%
Soybeans -8.96%
Lean Hogs -13.32%
Lumber -7.58%
Soybean Meal -9.85%

Credit Indices

Index Change
Markit CDX EM -1.30%
Markit CDX NA HY -1.26%
Markit CDX NA IG +8.97%
Markit iTraxx Asia ex-Japan IG +20.22%
Markit iTraxx Australia +10.82%
Markit iTraxx Europe +7.90%
Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover +35.71%
Markit iTraxx Japan +3.62%
Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe +0.08%
Markit LCDX (Loan CDS) -0.14%
Markit MCDX (Municipal CDS) +3.22%
All major indices suffered huge losses. The dollar rallied, commodities fell and investors fled risk-assets.

Oil

oil_fut_chart_august_2015

With oil down about 57 per cent from its peak last June, and copper and iron ore down about 50 and 70 per cent respectively from their peaks in early 2011, it has become clear that story was profoundly misleading. Whether or not the supercycle exists, the regular old cycle definitely does, and there is nothing very super about it at all.

Why the commodities super cycle was a myth

USDINR

usd_fut_chart_august_2015

Nifty Heatmap

CNX NIFTY.2015-07-31.2015-08-31

Index Returns

index.performance.2015-07-31.2015-08-31

Market Cap Decile Performance

Decile Mkt. Cap. Adv/Decl
1 (micro) -10.15% 69/68
2 -9.65% 53/83
3 -11.73% 45/92
4 -10.91% 50/86
5 -11.00% 46/90
6 -8.71% 51/86
7 -6.63% 56/80
8 -5.76% 57/80
9 -6.01% 61/75
10 (mega) -4.25% 72/65
Midcaps bore the brunt…

Top Winners and Losers

LUPIN +14.08%
GLENMARK +14.12%
DIVISLAB +20.52%
VEDL -24.26%
HINDALCO -23.91%
RELCAPITAL -19.41%
Pharma vastly out-performed the cyclicals and commodity players…

ETF Performance

GOLDBEES +7.12%
JUNIORBEES -3.41%
NIFTYBEES -6.44%
PSUBNKBEES -6.53%
BANKBEES -8.55%
INFRABEES -10.30%
CPSEETF -12.67%
Gold caught a safe-haven bid…

Yield Curve

yieldCurve.2015-07-31.2015-08-31

Bond Indices

Sub Index Change in YTM Total Return(%)
0 5 -0.01 +0.73%
5 10 -0.03 +0.77%
10 15 -0.08 +1.25%
15 20 -0.04 +0.98%
20 30 -0.02 +0.89%
Yields went down a smidgen…

Investment Theme Performance

The only strategy that ended in the green was low-vol…

Equity Mutual Funds

Bond Mutual Funds

FII and DII Activity

fii-investments.2014-01-01.2015-08-31

dii-investments.2014-01-01.2015-08-31

FII’s pulled out more than $2.5bn from the Indian markets. DII’s barely lent any support.

Thought to sum up the month

What ails the truth is that it is mainly uncomfortable, and often dull. The human mind seeks something more amusing, and more caressing.

Source: The Unreliable Experts: getting in the way of outstanding performance

Weekly Recap: Risk

world.2015-08-21.2015-08-28

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) +1.72%
CAC(FRA) +0.95%
UKX(GBR) +0.97%
NKY(JPN) -1.54%
SPX(USA) -0.65%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) +2.54%
INMEX(MEX) +2.38%
NGSEINDX(NGA) -3.50%
XU030(TUR) +1.33%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) +2.53%
SHCOMP(CHN) -7.85%
NIFTY(IND) -3.59%
INDEXCF(RUS) +3.36%
TOP40(ZAF) +2.26%

Commodities

Energy
Ethanol -0.48%
Heating Oil +7.11%
WTI Crude Oil +12.06%
RBOB Gasoline -0.87%
Brent Crude Oil +9.95%
Natural Gas +1.64%
Metals
Gold 100oz -2.32%
Palladium -2.78%
Copper +1.30%
Platinum -0.73%
Silver 5000oz -5.81%

Currencies

USDEUR:+1.52% USDJPY:-0.45%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) +0.30%
USDMXN(MEX) -0.84%
USDNGN(NGA) -0.04%
USDTRY(TUR) +0.23%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) +2.66%
USDCNY(CHN) +0.01%
USDINR(IND) +0.50%
USDRUB(RUS) -5.39%
USDZAR(ZAF) +2.72%
Agricultural
Cattle +0.50%
Cocoa +1.91%
Coffee (Arabica) -1.19%
Lean Hogs +6.16%
Lumber -3.34%
Soybean Meal -1.99%
Sugar #11 +4.89%
Wheat -4.26%
Feeder Cattle -4.41%
Orange Juice +1.41%
White Sugar +1.80%
Coffee (Robusta) -4.16%
Corn -0.75%
Cotton -4.89%
Soybeans -1.21%

Credit Indices

Index Change
Markit CDX EM -0.08%
Markit CDX NA HY +0.18%
Markit CDX NA IG +2.08%
Markit iTraxx Asia ex-Japan IG +14.30%
Markit iTraxx Australia +6.45%
Markit iTraxx Europe +3.44%
Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover +9.89%
Markit iTraxx Japan +4.46%
Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe +0.76%
Markit LCDX (Loan CDS) -0.11%
Markit MCDX (Municipal CDS) +1.27%
A total mess of week that saw a sudden collapse, money being sucked out of risk-assets of all types and a retrace in most markets. This one goes to buy-and-hold dollar-cost averagers…

Nifty Heatmap

CNX NIFTY.2015-08-21.2015-08-28

Index Returns

For a deeper dive into indices, check out our weekly Index Update.
index.performance.2015-08-21.2015-08-28

Sector Performance

sectorperformance.2015-08-21.2015-08-28

Market Cap Decile Performance

Decile Mkt. Cap. Adv/Decl
1 (micro) -10.11% 69/65
2 -8.75% 45/89
3 -8.68% 48/86
4 -9.56% 41/92
5 -8.71% 42/92
6 -7.32% 44/90
7 -7.77% 57/76
8 -5.78% 53/81
9 -5.45% 52/82
10 (mega) -5.32% 59/75
Massacre across the board…

Top Winners and Losers

CAIRN +2.75%
APOLLOHOSP +3.10%
NMDC +7.47%
BANKINDIA -14.98%
CANBK -14.40%
UNIONBANK -12.46%
PSU banks took it on the chin…

ETF Performance

GOLDBEES -1.27%
CPSEETF -2.37%
JUNIORBEES -3.37%
NIFTYBEES -3.69%
INFRABEES -4.48%
BANKBEES -4.49%
PSUBNKBEES -7.42%
Not a single ETF ended the week in the green…

Yield Curve

yieldCurve.2015-08-21.2015-08-28

Bond Indices

Sub Index Change in YTM Total Return(%)
0 5 -0.01 +0.16%
5 10 +0.01 +0.09%
10 15 -0.02 +0.27%
15 20 +0.02 -0.01%
20 30 -0.01 +0.27%
Stocks down, bonds up?

Investment Theme Performance

Equity Mutual Funds

Bond Mutual Funds

Thought for the weekend

Nothing in the world can give a damn less than risk. Risk doesn’t care about your political views or your morals. It doesn’t care what your view of the market is, or what you were taught in school. It’s an indiscriminate assassin and a master at humbling ideologies.

Source: Risk: Your Best Friend and Worst Enemy

Weekly Recap: Benchmark Idolatry

world.2015-07-31.2015-08-07

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) +1.61%
CAC(FRA) +1.42%
UKX(GBR) +0.33%
NKY(JPN) +0.68%
SPX(USA) -1.44%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) -0.67%
INMEX(MEX) +0.25%
NGSEINDX(NGA) +4.18%
XU030(TUR) -1.80%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) -4.43%
SHCOMP(CHN) +2.20%
NIFTY(IND) +0.37%
INDEXCF(RUS) +1.28%
TOP40(ZAF) -0.27%

Commodities

Energy
Brent Crude Oil -7.00%
Ethanol -2.60%
Heating Oil -2.62%
WTI Crude Oil -7.78%
Natural Gas +2.80%
RBOB Gasoline -11.53%
Metals
Silver 5000oz -1.34%
Palladium -2.32%
Platinum -2.49%
Copper -1.27%
Gold 100oz -0.46%

Currencies

USDEUR:+0.22% USDJPY:+0.27%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) +0.01%
USDMXN(MEX) +0.24%
USDNGN(NGA) +0.10%
USDTRY(TUR) +0.31%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) +2.32%
USDCNY(CHN) +0.00%
USDINR(IND) -0.50%
USDRUB(RUS) +4.30%
USDZAR(ZAF) -0.40%
Agricultural
Coffee (Arabica) +0.95%
Coffee (Robusta) -6.71%
Cattle +2.50%
Corn +0.47%
Cotton -2.50%
Orange Juice +7.82%
Sugar #11 -4.39%
Lean Hogs -1.34%
White Sugar -1.26%
Cocoa -2.49%
Feeder Cattle +1.54%
Lumber +3.33%
Soybean Meal -0.76%
Soybeans +3.17%
Wheat +2.46%

Credit Indices

Index Change
Markit CDX EM -0.45%
Markit CDX NA HY -0.03%
Markit CDX NA IG +0.86%
Markit iTraxx Asia ex-Japan IG +1.78%
Markit iTraxx Australia +2.72%
Markit iTraxx Europe -0.84%
Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover +1.87%
Markit iTraxx Japan +1.18%
Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe -1.67%
Markit LCDX (Loan CDS) -0.04%
Markit MCDX (Municipal CDS) -0.98%
Another bad week for commodities with the S&P flirting with red for the year. The energy and precious metals complex resumed their collapse. The Nifty barely made it to the green. INR appreciated against the USD but the USD appreciated against other major currencies.

Nifty Heatmap

CNX NIFTY.2015-07-31.2015-08-07

Index Returns

For a deeper dive into indices, check out our weekly Index Update.
index.performance.2015-07-31.2015-08-07

Market Cap Decile Performance

Decile Mkt. Cap. Adv/Decl
1 (micro) +8.49% 79/58
2 +4.50% 77/58
3 +5.13% 71/66
4 +5.36% 74/62
5 +4.19% 76/60
6 +4.87% 76/60
7 +4.28% 77/59
8 +3.92% 78/59
9 +3.89% 75/61
10 (mega) +2.36% 73/64
Midcaps out-performed large caps…

Top Winners and Losers

CANBK +11.59%
UNIONBANK +17.03%
CUMMINSIND +18.95%
HCLTECH -5.90%
COALINDIA -5.55%
BHEL -4.38%
After spending the longest time in the doldrums, Cummins jolted up after its Q1 results.

ETF Performance

PSUBNKBEES +5.28%
JUNIORBEES +3.05%
INFRABEES +0.52%
NIFTYBEES +0.33%
BANKBEES +0.33%
GOLDBEES -0.38%
CPSEETF -1.18%
PSU banks continued to rally on the promise of free money.

Yield Curve

yield Curve.2015-07-31.2015-08-07

Bond Indices

Sub Index Change in YTM Total Return(%)
0 5 +0.03 +0.11%
5 10 +0.01 +0.08%
10 15 -0.03 +0.33%
15 20 -0.02 +0.33%
20 30 -0.02 +0.30%
The Gilt market ended flat…

Investment Theme Performance

Was a good week for most investment strategies…

Equity Mutual Funds

Bond Mutual Funds

Thought for the weekend

The benchmark tail wags the portfolio management dog. Benchmarks were supposed to be the foundation for understanding a portfolio manager’s performance after the fact. Instead the investment industry evolved so that benchmarks are now the navigational compass for investment managers before the fact.

Only way to remedy this is to earn AUM through performance, not marketing. A majority of an asset manager’s time should be spent on research, not giving presentations to third parties.

Source: Alpha Wounds: Benchmark Tail Wags the Portfolio Management Dog

Macro Update July 2015

US TREASURIES VS. GILT SPREAD

The spread between 10yr US Treasuries and Indian Gilts remained within a tight range this month.

ust-ind-10yr-spread.2011-01-18

Long term US Treasury yields compressed.

ust-yield-curve.2015-06-30

Institutional investments

FIIs were net buyers in July. A welcome relief after June’s selloff.

fii-investments.2014-01-01.2015-07-31

DIIs joined the bandwagon as well.

dii-investments.2014-01-01.2015-07-31

Oil

Oil got shellacked.

wti-brent.2011-01-18

Gold

Gold got shellacked too.

gold.usd

Copper

Copper got shellacked three.

copper.usd

US Dollar

Here is the rally in US Dollar charted:

usd_fut_chart

Outlook

The fall in commodity prices should be a huge windfall for the Indian economy. However, the pace of reforms have come below expectations. The Monsoon Session of the parliament has been a disappointing mess. This has resulted in extended valuations in quality stocks. With a US rate-hike expected in September, we may see a bit of a wobble that might prove to be an excellent time to “buy the dip.”

Monthly Recap: How’s your macro?

world.2015-06-30.2015-07-31

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) +3.33%
CAC(FRA) +6.10%
UKX(GBR) +2.69%
NKY(JPN) +1.73%
SPX(USA) +1.43%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) -2.20%
INMEX(MEX) -0.52%
NGSEINDX(NGA) -9.79%
XU030(TUR) -2.49%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) -4.21%
SHCOMP(CHN) -14.34%
NIFTY(IND) +1.96%
INDEXCF(RUS) +0.87%
TOP40(ZAF) +0.90%

Commodities

Energy
Ethanol -6.07%
Brent Crude Oil -17.93%
Heating Oil -16.11%
Natural Gas -3.76%
RBOB Gasoline -15.34%
WTI Crude Oil -21.37%
Metals
Gold 100oz -6.50%
Copper -9.92%
Platinum -8.90%
Silver 5000oz -4.49%
Palladium -9.26%

Currencies

USDEUR:+1.41% USDJPY:+1.27%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) +1.50%
USDMXN(MEX) +2.68%
USDNGN(NGA) -0.13%
USDTRY(TUR) +3.48%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) +10.15%
USDCNY(CHN) +0.14%
USDINR(IND) +0.76%
USDRUB(RUS) +11.89%
USDZAR(ZAF) +4.18%
Agricultural
Cocoa -0.56%
Coffee (Arabica) -3.75%
Lean Hogs +3.36%
Cattle -0.95%
Corn -10.04%
Cotton -2.35%
Orange Juice +7.45%
Wheat -18.75%
White Sugar -5.81%
Coffee (Robusta) -13.05%
Feeder Cattle -1.44%
Lumber -12.67%
Soybean Meal -1.42%
Soybeans -7.29%
Sugar #11 -8.91%

Credit Indices

Index Change
Markit CDX EM +0.28%
Markit CDX NA HY -0.15%
Markit CDX NA IG -1.71%
Markit iTraxx Asia ex-Japan IG -3.67%
Markit iTraxx Australia -2.15%
Markit iTraxx Europe -13.99%
Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover -47.76%
Markit iTraxx Japan -5.14%
Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe -2.34%
Markit LCDX (Loan CDS) -0.06%
Markit MCDX (Municipal CDS) -4.61%
Indian midcaps rallied; the bottom fell out of commodities and oil; China was a total shit show. Will the midcap party continue into August?

Index Returns

index.performance.2015-06-30.2015-07-31

Market Cap Decile Performance

Decile Mkt. Cap. Adv/Decl
1 (micro) +17.40% 76/54
2 +22.15% 87/41
3 +33.99% 97/33
4 +17.22% 98/31
5 +17.19% 89/40
6 +12.51% 85/45
7 +10.13% 78/51
8 +8.94% 81/49
9 +4.99% 74/55
10 (mega) +2.06% 64/66
Midcaps and smallcaps put in some impressive numbers…

Top Winners and Losers

ABIRLANUVO +23.12%
BANKBARODA +23.14%
HINDPETRO +26.40%
VEDL -25.21%
TATASTEEL -18.94%
NMDC -14.15%
Commodities were the most-hated sector…

ETF Performance

JUNIORBEES +6.42%
PSUBNKBEES +6.31%
BANKBEES +2.90%
NIFTYBEES +2.43%
INFRABEES +1.25%
CPSEETF -1.48%
GOLDBEES -6.20%
Hopefully, a crashing gold will wean us off it?

Yield Curve

yield Curve.2015-06-30.2015-07-31

Bond Indices

Sub Index Change in YTM Total Return(%)
0 5 -0.08 +0.88%
5 10 -0.09 +1.12%
10 15 -0.05 +1.04%
15 20 -0.10 +1.57%
20 30 -0.15 +2.20%
The long-end rallied…

Investment Theme Performance

Equity Mutual Funds

Bond Mutual Funds

Thought to sum up the month

Hanging on every twist and turn of the headlines are a group of folks we call “macro tourists.” They are a terrific source of chatter at any cocktail party — such as “Tsipras may have just doomed the Greeks for the next decade.”

Why does this matter to investors? For two reasons: First, macro tourists are everywhere; and second, they seem to be terrible stewards of your capital.

Market-moving headlines would seem to present an opportunity to capi­tal­ize on the potential volatility that often follows.

But here’s the big risk for investors who try to game the headlines: Figuring out what just happened is hard enough; the macro investor must guess at what’s ahead — outcomes for the near and far future as well as the market reaction to those outcomes.

It’s no wonder the macro tourists, both professional manager and amateur investor alike, have been for the most part unsuccessful.

Source: Curse of the Macro Tourist