Tag: daily

Opening Bell 03.04.2020

Your world at 9am

world equity market heatmap

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) +0.27%
CAC(FRA) +0.33%
UKX(GBR) +0.47%
NKY(JPN) +0.31%
SPX(USA) +2.28%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) +0.66%
INMEX(MEX) -0.34%
NGSEINDX(NGA) +0.10%
XU030(TUR) +0.49%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) +1.81%
SHCOMP(CHN) -0.23%
NIFTY(IND) -4.00%
INDEXCF(RUS) -0.01%
TOP40(ZAF) +3.04%

Commodities

Energy
Heating Oil +0.77%
WTI Crude Oil -4.27%
Brent Crude Oil -3.37%
Natural Gas +0.71%
RBOB Gasoline -1.45%
Ethanol +0.00%
Metals
Gold 100oz -0.12%
Platinum -0.41%
Copper +0.00%
Palladium +1.52%
Silver 5000oz -0.04%

Currencies

USDEUR:+0.09% USDJPY:+0.02%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) -0.30%
USDMXN(MEX) +0.36%
USDNGN(NGA) +0.00%
USDTRY(TUR) +0.44%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) +0.03%
USDCNY(CHN) +0.01%
USDINR(IND) -0.33%
USDRUB(RUS) +0.20%
USDZAR(ZAF) +0.67%
Agricultural
Coffee (Arabica) +0.00%
Cotton +0.80%
Orange Juice +0.00%
White Sugar +0.00%
Cocoa +0.00%
Sugar #11 +0.00%
Feeder Cattle +0.00%
Lumber +0.00%
Soybeans +0.15%
Cattle +0.00%
Coffee (Robusta) +0.00%
Corn +0.52%
Lean Hogs +0.00%
Soybean Meal +0.03%
Wheat +1.20%

Out of 43 world ETFs listed in NYSE that we track, 32 are trading above their 10-day SMA and 0 are trading above their 50-day SMA.

Must Reads

Corona has pushed Bharat to the brink
NEW DELHI : Baburao Sanap has no clue how to pull himself out of a big mess —he’s saddled with 40 tonnes of fresh grapes and a loan of ₹40 lakh. “Corona is worse than notebandi,” Sanap said, recalling the ban on high-value currency notes announced in November 2016.

Spies, hijacks and export bans: the global battle for coronavirus equipment
US buyers waving wads of cash managed to wrest control of a consignment of masks as it was about to be dispatched from China to one of the worst-hit coronavirus areas of France, according to two French officials.

Why Swedes are not yet locked down
WHILE SWEDEN’S fellow Scandinavians and nearly all other Europeans are spending most of their time holed up at home under orders from their governments, Swedes last weekend still enjoyed the springtime sun sitting in cafés and munching pickled herrings in restaurants.


Disney debuts its streaming service in India
Disney+ has arrived in the land of Bollywood. The company on Friday rolled out its eponymous streaming service in India through Hotstar, a popular on-demand video streamer it picked up as part of the Fox deal.

Banks seen bearing the brunt as covid-19 brings growth to a halt
MUMBAI : The ongoing nationwide lockdown, sluggish economic growth and the consequent rise in bad loan provisions will exert pressure on the capital adequacy of banks, ratings agencies have warned.

Why Time Has Slowed
Time seems to have slowed down. March felt like it lasted longer than some years. February feels like a different lifetime.

‘In warlike economy, money needs to be directed to fight, deal with pandemic consequences’
As a director at the National Institute of Public Finance and Policy, Rathin Roy was one of the members of a committee chaired by NK Singh, which reviewed The Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management (FRBM) Act.

India’s toaster-sized ventilator helps hospitals in virus fight
Originally created by a robot scientist and a neurosurgeon to help India’s poor, a toaster-sized ventilator is offering hope in the country’s fight against the coronavirus pandemic and demand is booming.

Mobile payments firms in India are now scrambling to make money
Vijay Shekhar Sharma, founder and chief executive of India’s most valuable startup, Paytm, posed an existential question in a recent press conference. “What do you think of the commercial model for digital mobile payments.

White House predicts 100,000 to 240,000 will die in US from coronavirus
President Donald Trump prepared Americans for a coming surge in coronavirus cases, calling COVID-19 a plague and saying the U.S. is facing a “very, very painful two weeks.”  “This could be a hell of a bad two weeks. This is going to be a very bad two, and maybe three weeks.

Virus outbreak drives down automobile sales in March
MUMBAI : Passenger vehicle sales in India plunged 52% in March from a year earlier as government restrictions to limit the spread of covid-19 forced dealers to shut showrooms.

Amid Covid-19 crisis, commercial vehicle sales crash 89% in March
Mumbai: The commercial vehicle (CV) segment, a major indicator of economic activities, has crashed 89% year-on-year in March as India comes to a screeching halt to deal with Covid-19 crisis. The segment took a deeper cut when compared to the passenger vehicles, which were down 52% in March.

Indianivesh PMS shuts down – What should investors do?
IndiaNivesh, a financial services group with broking and PMS arms has announced the closure of its Portfolio Management Services (PMS). This is on account of the Covid 19 driven volatility, said a statement from the group. The PMS had a size of ₹60 crore and 190 clients.

Covid-19 impact: IndiaNivesh shuts brokerage business due to liquidity crunch
2 min read .

NBFCs in a fix over RBI’s three-month moratorium offer
Non-banking financial companies (NBFC) are in a fix after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) asked all financial institutions to offer a three-month moratorium to borrowers. Many NBFCs may need to service their debt obligations towards banks, mutual funds and other financial institutions, they said.

‘In warlike economy, money needs to be directed to fight, deal with pandemic consequences’
As a director at the National Institute of Public Finance and Policy, Rathin Roy was one of the members of a committee chaired by NK Singh, which reviewed The Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management (FRBM) Act.

Investor in IndusInd Bank? Know what is plaguing the stock and what lies ahead
Amid the market mayhem over the past month, IndusInd Bank has particularly taken a hard knock, losing over 60 per cent in value.

Check out our Global Macro Dashboard for currency, commodity, bonds and credit charts.

Good luck!

Options Daily 03.04.2020

NIFTY Summary:

  1. Apr 12000 calls added 13,28,325 contracts.
  2. Apr 10000 calls shed 3,29,175.
  3. Apr 8000 puts added 5,51,925.
  4. Apr 9100 puts shed 375.

Our trend model indicates a SHORT on the NIFTY and SHORT on the BANKNIFTY.

Avg. True Range

NIFTY.50 NIFTY.BANK
3 458.72 1327.22
5 521.40 1565.67
10 540.09 1629.03
20 491.00 1471.30

NIFTY 50 NIFTY BANK
TrueRange 399.40 1112.50
TrueHigh 8597.75 19154.75
TrueLow 8198.35 18042.25

Nifty 50 Returns Density Plot

NIFTY 50 kernel density plot

APR NIFTY OI

APR NIFTY OI chart

APR BANKNIFTY OI

APR BANKNIFTY OI chart

NIFTY Weighted Avg. Open Interest

NIFTY Weighted Avg. Open Interest chart

APR NIFTY Volatility

APR NIFTY Volatility chart

APR BANKNIFTY Volatility

APR BANKNIFTY Volatility chart
Dotted lines indicated actual underlying volatility. Solid lines are IVs.

VIX Density Plot

VIX kernel density plot

5-day forecast based on ARMA(1,0)+GARCH(1,1) model:

VIX 60.05 60.06 60.06 60.06 60.06
σ 0.53 0.54 0.55 0.56 0.56

Marketwide OI

market wide position limit chart

FRED Scan 03.04.2020

10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate

10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate

CBOE 10-Year Treasury Note Volatility Futures

CBOE 10-Year Treasury Note Volatility Futures

ICE BofA US Corporate Index Total Return Index Value

ICE BofA US Corporate Index Total Return Index Value

Crude Oil Prices: West Texas Intermediate (WTI) – Cushing, Oklahoma

Crude Oil Prices: West Texas Intermediate (WTI) - Cushing, Oklahoma

90-Day AA Nonfinancial Commercial Paper Interest Rate

90-Day AA Nonfinancial Commercial Paper Interest Rate

Moody’s Seasoned Aaa Corporate Bond Yield


Effective Federal Funds Rate

Effective Federal Funds Rate

3-Month Treasury Bill: Secondary Market Rate

3-Month Treasury Bill: Secondary Market Rate

10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate

10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate

5-Year 0-1/8% Treasury Inflation-Indexed Note, Due 4/15/2020

5-Year 0-1/8% Treasury Inflation-Indexed Note, Due 4/15/2020

FRED Scan 02.04.2020

10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate

10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate

Total Value of Issues, with a Maturity Between 21 and 40 Days, Used in Calculating the AA Asset-Backed Commercial Paper Rates

Total Value of Issues, with a Maturity Between 21 and 40 Days, Used in Calculating the AA Asset-Backed Commercial Paper Rates

ICE BofA AAA US Corporate Index Total Return Index Value

ICE BofA AAA US Corporate Index Total Return Index Value

Crude Oil Prices: West Texas Intermediate (WTI) – Cushing, Oklahoma

Crude Oil Prices: West Texas Intermediate (WTI) - Cushing, Oklahoma

Overnight Reverse Repurchase Agreements: Treasury Securities Sold by the Federal Reserve in the Temporary Open Market Operations

Overnight Reverse Repurchase Agreements: Treasury Securities Sold by the Federal Reserve in the Temporary Open Market Operations

30-Day AA Nonfinancial Commercial Paper Interest Rate

30-Day AA Nonfinancial Commercial Paper Interest Rate

Moody’s Seasoned Aaa Corporate Bond Yield


Effective Federal Funds Rate

Effective Federal Funds Rate

3-Month Treasury Bill: Secondary Market Rate

3-Month Treasury Bill: Secondary Market Rate

10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate

10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate

Opening Bell 01.04.2020

Your world at 9am

world equity market heatmap

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) +1.22%
CAC(FRA) +0.40%
UKX(GBR) +1.95%
NKY(JPN) -0.94%
SPX(USA) -1.60%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) +1.11%
INMEX(MEX) +1.47%
NGSEINDX(NGA) -0.14%
XU030(TUR) +1.36%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) -2.17%
SHCOMP(CHN) +0.71%
NIFTY(IND) +3.82%
INDEXCF(RUS) -0.01%
TOP40(ZAF) +2.47%

Commodities

Energy
RBOB Gasoline -5.35%
Brent Crude Oil -2.20%
Ethanol +0.00%
Natural Gas +0.24%
Heating Oil -1.01%
WTI Crude Oil +0.10%
Metals
Platinum -0.56%
Palladium -3.25%
Silver 5000oz -0.02%
Copper -0.89%
Gold 100oz +0.07%

Currencies

USDEUR:+0.08% USDJPY:+0.17%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) +0.57%
USDMXN(MEX) +0.35%
USDNGN(NGA) +0.26%
USDTRY(TUR) +0.02%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) +0.21%
USDCNY(CHN) +0.05%
USDINR(IND) -0.19%
USDRUB(RUS) -0.06%
USDZAR(ZAF) +0.03%
Agricultural
Cattle +0.00%
Feeder Cattle +0.00%
Lumber +0.00%
White Sugar +0.00%
Cocoa +0.00%
Coffee (Arabica) +0.00%
Coffee (Robusta) +0.00%
Corn -0.15%
Cotton -0.70%
Lean Hogs +0.00%
Soybeans -0.90%
Sugar #11 +0.00%
Orange Juice +0.00%
Soybean Meal -0.50%
Wheat -0.35%

Out of 43 world ETFs listed in NYSE that we track, 40 are trading above their 10-day SMA and 0 are trading above their 50-day SMA.

Must Reads

Opinion | The sudden return of quantity planning in the wake of covid-19
One of the defining features of a war economy is that economic thinking is focused on quantities rather than prices. Much of the ongoing global response to the covid-19 pandemic is still in crisis-Keynesian mode.

Why the wage increase under MGNREGA does not offer any meaningful respite
Sangaralingam Ramanujam, director of the Jayankondam Collective Farming Producer Company in Tamil Nadu’s Kundaveli Ariyalur District, played a key role in opening bank accounts for people in his village under the Jan Dhan scheme.

That Discomfort You’re Feeling Is Grief
We’ve made our coronavirus coverage free for all readers. To get all of HBR’s content delivered to your inbox, sign up for the Daily Alert newsletter. Some of the HBR edit staff met virtually the other day — a screen full of faces in a scene becoming more common everywhere.

S&P Study: Alpha is Truly ‘Fleeting’
Active fund managers tout how much “alpha” they can deliver for investors. Besides representing a Greek letter, this terminology in finance represents how much “excess” return a fund makes relative to a comparative index.

RBI likely to cut interest rates by 100 bps in FY21: Fitch Solutions
New Delhi: The RBI is likely to cut benchmark interest rate by another 100 bps in 2020-21 fiscal and continue to employ all policy tools at its disposal to support growth and financial stability to contain the impact of Covid-19 pandemic on the economy, Fitch Solutions said Tuesday.

136 million jobs at risk in post-corona India
On a Monday afternoon, a day before India announced a 21-day lockdown to flatten the curve of covid-19 infections, Sunil Gupta, chairman and managing director of Travel Bureau, a tour operator in Agra, sat alone in his office in Agra’s Fatehabad Road.

A battered IndusInd Bank lays bare RBI’s financial stability challenge
MUMBAI: India’s private sector banks are facing their toughest test yet, with a virus outbreak putting their earnings at risk even as the collapse of a peer has raised serious questions over deposits. IndusInd Bank is the worst hit right now.

Future imperfect after coronavirus
The authorities, like most of the rest of us, have been caught short by the sudden advent of the coronavirus pandemic, and are rightly rushing to limit unnecessary deaths. But in doing so, they are imposing a massive supply shock.

How the UK’s just-in-time delivery model crumbled under coronavirus
Stockpiling has upended supermarkets. But they’re already fighting back. A few weeks ago, many people were no longer able to get their hands on their choice of rigatoni, any kind of loo roll or a box of eggs. Aisles were bare and panic buying gripped the nation. Or so we thought.

Pandemic-Related Unemployment and Shutdowns Are a Recipe for Social Unrest
Could the stalled economy we’ve inflicted on ourselves in our frantic efforts to battle the COVID-19 pandemic lead to civil disorder? History suggests that’s a real danger.

Check out our Global Macro Dashboard for currency, commodity, bonds and credit charts.

Good luck!