Category: Your Money

Opening Bell 18.02.2020

Your world at 9am

world equity market heatmap

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) +0.29%
CAC(FRA) +0.27%
UKX(GBR) +0.33%
NKY(JPN) -1.22%
SPX(USA) +0.18%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) +0.50%
INMEX(MEX) +0.08%
NGSEINDX(NGA) -0.67%
XU030(TUR) +0.56%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) +0.81%
SHCOMP(CHN) -0.44%
NIFTY(IND) -0.56%
INDEXCF(RUS) -0.01%
TOP40(ZAF) +0.59%

Commodities

Energy
Natural Gas +4.90%
Ethanol +1.11%
Heating Oil -1.18%
RBOB Gasoline +0.36%
Brent Crude Oil -1.20%
WTI Crude Oil -0.88%
Metals
Gold 100oz -0.08%
Platinum +0.64%
Palladium +5.29%
Copper +0.94%
Silver 5000oz +0.00%

Currencies

USDEUR:+0.03% USDJPY:-0.17%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) +0.20%
USDMXN(MEX) +0.23%
USDNGN(NGA) +0.03%
USDTRY(TUR) +0.11%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) +0.84%
USDCNY(CHN) +0.20%
USDINR(IND) -0.11%
USDRUB(RUS) +0.22%
USDZAR(ZAF) +0.25%
Agricultural
Coffee (Robusta) +0.00%
Soybean Meal -0.24%
Wheat +1.43%
White Sugar +0.00%
Cattle +1.02%
Corn +0.26%
Feeder Cattle +1.28%
Lumber -0.94%
Orange Juice +0.00%
Cocoa +0.00%
Coffee (Arabica) +0.00%
Cotton +0.88%
Lean Hogs -0.53%
Soybeans -0.03%
Sugar #11 +0.00%

Out of 43 world ETFs listed in NYSE that we track, 27 are trading above their 10-day SMA and 20 are trading above their 50-day SMA.

Must Reads

Bad to worse
A series of unfortunate events threaten to derail what was once a sunrise sector. On Friday, the Supreme Court rejected the plea filed by telecom operators seeking a new schedule for payments related to the adjusted gross revenue (AGR) issue.

IBC check: In 3 years, just 6 per cent of 3,312 cases have seen resolution
The latest data put out by the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Board of India (IBBI), for the October-December 2019 quarter, continues to highlight the slow progress of resolution under the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC).

Is PE Having Its WeWork Moment…???
For the better part of a decade, institutional investors have redeemed capital from active strategies and dumped it into Private Equity (PE). What’s the benefit of PE for allocators? You get to have levered equity returns without the volatility of actually owning public equities.

Tesla teardown finds electronics 6 years ahead of Toyota and VW
TOKYO — Toyota Motor and Volkswagen each sell 10 million cars, give or take, every year. Tesla delivered about 367,500 in 2019. But when it comes to electronics technology, Elon Musk’s scrappy company is far ahead of the industry giants.

Data-Driven Decisions Start with These 4 Questions
Data has become central to how we run our businesses today. In fact, the global market intelligence firm International Data Corporation (IDC) projects spending on data and analytics to reach $274.3 billion by 2022. However, much of that money is not being spent wisely.

Check out our Global Macro Dashboard for currency, commodity, bonds and credit charts.

Good luck!

Options Daily 18.02.2020

NIFTY Summary:

  1. Feb 12100 calls added 5,17,125 contracts.
  2. Feb 12600 calls shed 1,12,800.
  3. Feb 11800 puts added 2,80,950.
  4. Feb 12000 puts shed 2,73,975.

Our trend model indicates a SHORT on the NIFTY and LONG on the BANKNIFTY.

Avg. True Range

NIFTY.50 NIFTY.BANK
3 126.07 450.42
5 130.25 454.93
10 134.02 463.58
20 131.11 463.91

NIFTY 50 NIFTY BANK
TrueRange 122.60 367.65
TrueHigh 12159.60 30998.15
TrueLow 12037.00 30630.50
Avg. True Range

NIFTY.50 NIFTY.BANK
3 126.07 450.42
5 130.25 454.93
10 134.02 463.58
20 131.11 463.91

NIFTY 50 NIFTY BANK
TrueRange 122.60 367.65
TrueHigh 12159.60 30998.15
TrueLow 12037.00 30630.50

Nifty 50 Returns Density Plot

NIFTY 50 kernel density plot

FEB NIFTY OI

FEB NIFTY OI chart

FEB BANKNIFTY OI

FEB BANKNIFTY OI chart

NIFTY Weighted Avg. Open Interest

NIFTY Weighted Avg. Open Interest chart

FEB NIFTY Volatility

FEB NIFTY Volatility chart

FEB BANKNIFTY Volatility

FEB BANKNIFTY Volatility chart
Dotted lines indicated actual underlying volatility. Solid lines are IVs.

VIX Density Plot

VIX kernel density plot

5-day forecast based on ARMA(0,0)+GARCH(1,1) model:

VIX 13.92 13.92 13.92 13.92 13.92
σ 0.36 0.27 0.22 0.18 0.17

Marketwide OI

Securities under ban today: NCC.
market wide position limit chart

Opening Bell 17.02.2020

Your world at 9am

world equity market heatmap

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) -0.01%
CAC(FRA) -0.39%
UKX(GBR) -0.58%
NKY(JPN) -0.64%
SPX(USA) +0.18%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) +0.07%
INMEX(MEX) +0.07%
NGSEINDX(NGA) -0.39%
XU030(TUR) -0.37%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) -1.11%
SHCOMP(CHN) +1.14%
NIFTY(IND) -0.50%
INDEXCF(RUS) -0.01%
TOP40(ZAF) -0.01%

Commodities

Energy
Brent Crude Oil -0.28%
RBOB Gasoline +1.02%
Ethanol +1.11%
Natural Gas +3.43%
WTI Crude Oil -0.10%
Heating Oil -0.08%
Metals
Platinum +0.25%
Palladium +1.51%
Silver 5000oz +0.65%
Copper +0.94%
Gold 100oz +0.59%

Currencies

USDEUR:-0.06% USDJPY:+0.05%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) -0.06%
USDMXN(MEX) -0.03%
USDNGN(NGA) +0.54%
USDTRY(TUR) -0.09%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) -1.41%
USDCNY(CHN) -0.16%
USDINR(IND) +0.09%
USDRUB(RUS) -0.03%
USDZAR(ZAF) -0.36%
Agricultural
Lumber -0.79%
Orange Juice -1.06%
Soybean Meal -0.14%
Soybeans -0.33%
Coffee (Arabica) +4.02%
Corn -0.40%
Cocoa +0.00%
Coffee (Robusta) +0.00%
Cotton -0.43%
Feeder Cattle +1.60%
Lean Hogs +0.23%
Sugar #11 -0.99%
White Sugar +0.00%
Cattle +1.21%
Wheat +0.00%

Out of 43 world ETFs listed in NYSE that we track, 27 are trading above their 10-day SMA and 20 are trading above their 50-day SMA.

Must Reads

The problem with the tech media is not that they don’t understand tech. It’s that they don’t understand *business*
One of the mottos we used to have at The Economist was “foreign everywhere”, which is to say that our mid-Atlantic ideological perch gave us enough intellectual distance from any particular country and culture that we could see the big picture that more parochial locals could not.

India Inc’s profits surge despite flat revenue growth
With economic growth decelerating sharply in the current fiscal year owing to the collapse in consumption and marked slowdown in investments, the performance of India Inc has been lacklustre.

Bank of England has some lessons for Reserve Bank of India on how to revive growth
First it was the Federal Reserve. Then the European Central Bank. Now, India’s monetary authority may look to the Bank of England for ideas to revive growth, economists say.

Dipping into small savings funds to bridge fiscal deficit is costing Centre dearly
Even as the Centre took shelter under certain provisions of the FRBM Act and allowed itself the leeway to slip sharply on the fiscal deficit target, the Centre’s market borrowing figure oddly appeared sanguine.

LAnd of the Undead | No Mercy / No Malice

The Perils of “Survivorship Bias”
An aspiring entrepreneur could be forgiven for thinking that dropping out of college to start a company is the key to success. After all, it worked beautifully for Steve Jobs, Bill Gates and Mark Zuckerberg.

The Temptation Of St. Warren
I still remember the marvelous frisson on the Salomon Brothers trading floor in the summer of 1987 when Warren Buffett came riding in from Omaha to rescue our chairman, John Gutfreund, from his past.

The Price of Admission
When investors think about risk, 2008 is usually the first thing that comes to mind. And for good reason. It was the worst year that most investors alive today have ever experienced.

The concentration of economic power has led to spectacular investment returns.
The following article was originally published in “What I Learned This Week” on January 23, 2020. To learn more about 13D’s investment research, please visit our website.

Opinion | How countries play the tariff game
Tariff is a tax levied on an imported good at the border. Countries use tariffs to either provide easy market access or restrict them to protect domestic industry.

The Economic Fallout of the Coronavirus in Southeast Asia
The world watches as the number of confirmed coronavirus cases continues to climb.

Check out our Global Macro Dashboard for currency, commodity, bonds and credit charts.

Good luck!

Options Daily 17.02.2020

NIFTY Summary:

  1. Feb 12300 calls added 3,32,025 contracts.
  2. Feb 13000 calls shed 81,075.
  3. Feb 11750 puts added 55,350.
  4. Feb 12000 puts shed 1,39,125.

Our trend model indicates a SHORT on the NIFTY and LONG on the BANKNIFTY.

Avg. True Range

NIFTY.50 NIFTY.BANK
3 127.80 491.81
5 132.17 476.88
10 135.54 475.78
20 131.28 471.42

NIFTY 50 NIFTY BANK
TrueRange 155.50 660.55
TrueHigh 12246.70 31436.65
TrueLow 12091.20 30776.10
Avg. True Range

NIFTY.50 NIFTY.BANK
3 127.80 491.81
5 132.17 476.88
10 135.54 475.78
20 131.28 471.42

NIFTY 50 NIFTY BANK
TrueRange 155.50 660.55
TrueHigh 12246.70 31436.65
TrueLow 12091.20 30776.10
Avg. True Range

NIFTY.50 NIFTY.BANK
3 127.80 491.81
5 132.17 476.88
10 135.54 475.78
20 131.28 471.42

NIFTY 50 NIFTY BANK
TrueRange 155.50 660.55
TrueHigh 12246.70 31436.65
TrueLow 12091.20 30776.10

Nifty 50 Returns Density Plot

NIFTY 50 kernel density plot

FEB NIFTY OI

FEB NIFTY OI chart

FEB BANKNIFTY OI

FEB BANKNIFTY OI chart

NIFTY Weighted Avg. Open Interest

NIFTY Weighted Avg. Open Interest chart

FEB NIFTY Volatility

FEB NIFTY Volatility chart

FEB BANKNIFTY Volatility

FEB BANKNIFTY Volatility chart
Dotted lines indicated actual underlying volatility. Solid lines are IVs.

VIX Density Plot

VIX kernel density plot

5-day forecast based on ARMA(0,0)+GARCH(1,1) model:

VIX 13.92 13.92 13.92 13.92 13.92
σ 0.23 0.19 0.17 0.16 0.15

Marketwide OI

Securities under ban today: YESBANK.
market wide position limit chart