Opening Bell 27.07.2016

Your world at 9am

world equity market heatmap

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) +0.49%
CAC(FRA) +0.15%
UKX(GBR) +0.21%
NKY(JPN) +1.39%
SPX(USA) +0.03%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) +1.11%
INMEX(MEX) -0.28%
NGSEINDX(NGA) +1.14%
XU030(TUR) -0.69%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) -0.16%
SHCOMP(CHN) -0.60%
NIFTY(IND) -0.52%
INDEXCF(RUS) +0.35%
TOP40(ZAF) +0.52%

Commodities

Energy
Natural Gas -1.11%
Heating Oil -0.48%
WTI Crude Oil -0.23%
Brent Crude Oil -0.25%
Ethanol +0.00%
RBOB Gasoline -0.13%
Metals
Copper +0.00%
Gold 100oz +0.00%
Platinum -0.14%
Palladium -0.62%
Silver 5000oz +0.00%

Currencies

USDEUR:-0.12% USDJPY:+1.06%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) -0.18%
USDMXN(MEX) -0.13%
USDNGN(NGA) -0.08%
USDTRY(TUR) -0.05%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) -0.30%
USDCNY(CHN) -0.01%
USDINR(IND) +0.09%
USDRUB(RUS) +0.16%
USDZAR(ZAF) +0.00%
Agricultural
Cattle +0.00%
Coffee (Arabica) +0.00%
Coffee (Robusta) +0.00%
Corn +0.38%
Soybean Meal -0.12%
Lean Hogs +0.00%
Orange Juice +0.00%
White Sugar +0.00%
Cocoa +0.00%
Cotton +0.00%
Feeder Cattle +0.00%
Lumber +0.00%
Soybeans +0.73%
Sugar #11 +0.00%
Wheat +0.54%

Must Reads

Changes to India’s child labour law will disadvantage tribals, lower-castes – U.N.
NEW DELHI (Thomson Reuters Foundation) – The United Nations says changes to India’s child labour law which permit children to work for their families and reduce the number of banned occupations for adolescents will disadvantage vulnerable groups such as tribals and lower-caste communities.

India’s Drug Approvals Near Record Despite FDA Inspection Blitz
The U.S. Food and Drug Administration has become something of a bogeyman for India’s stock market. An inspection blitz on Indian drug factories that supply to the U.S.

States don’t agree on rate, GST uncertain
The crucial revenue neutral rate (RNR) of taxation as well as capping of the GST rate in the Bill did not find favour with many states during a meeting of the Empowered Committee of State Finance Ministers. An RNR of 15-15.

Global trade is not growing slower – it’s not growing at all, finds a new report
Falling rates of global trade growth have attracted much comment by analysts and officials, giving rise to a literature on the ‘global trade slowdown’ (Hoekman 2015, Constantinescu et al. 2016). The term ‘slowdown’ gives the impression of world trade losing momentum, but growing nonetheless.

Forget Brexit, Quitaly is Europe’s next worry
First it was Grexit, then it was Brexit. Now the looming threat for Europe is Quitaly, the fear that Italy might decide it has had enough of the single currency and go back to the lira.

Another Thing to Blame the Fed For: Emerging-Market Crises
The Federal Reserve and its monetary policy are probably more to blame for the emerging-market crises than these developing countries themselves, according to a new study by the Institute of International Finance.

Good luck!

Options Daily 27.07.2016

NIFTY Summary:

  1. Aug 9000 calls added 6,78,750 contracts.
  2. Aug 9100 calls shed 7,875.
  3. Aug 8500 puts added 3,79,800.
  4. Aug 7500 puts shed 1,96,725.

Our trend model indicates a SHORT on the NIFTY and SHORT on the BANKNIFTY.

JUL NIFTY OI

JUL NIFTY OI chart

JUL BANKNIFTY OI

JUL BANKNIFTY OI chart

AUG NIFTY OI

AUG NIFTY OI chart

AUG BANKNIFTY OI

AUG BANKNIFTY OI chart

NIFTY Weighted Avg. Open Interest

NIFTY Weighted Avg. Open Interest chart

JUL NIFTY Volatility

JUL NIFTY Volatility chart

JUL BANKNIFTY Volatility

JUL BANKNIFTY Volatility chart

AUG NIFTY Volatility

AUG NIFTY Volatility chart

AUG BANKNIFTY Volatility

AUG BANKNIFTY Volatility chart
Dotted lines indicated actual underlying volatility. Solid lines are IVs.

VIX Density Plot

VIX kernel density plot

5-day forecast based on ARMA(0,0)+GARCH(1,1) model:

VIX 17.53 17.53 17.53 17.53 17.53
σ 2.29 2.62 2.91 3.17 3.41

Marketwide OI

Securities under ban today: CANBK, CEATLTD, IBREALEST, INDIACEM, JINDALSTEL, JPASSOCIAT, KSCL, WOCKPHARMA.
market wide position limit chart

Opening Bell 26.07.2016

Your world at 9am

world equity market heatmap

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) +0.50%
CAC(FRA) +0.16%
UKX(GBR) -0.30%
NKY(JPN) -1.55%
SPX(USA) -0.30%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) -0.33%
INMEX(MEX) -0.87%
NGSEINDX(NGA) -0.11%
XU030(TUR) +3.18%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) -0.23%
SHCOMP(CHN) +0.48%
NIFTY(IND) +1.11%
INDEXCF(RUS) +0.25%
TOP40(ZAF) +0.56%

Commodities

Energy
Ethanol +0.00%
RBOB Gasoline +0.04%
WTI Crude Oil +0.23%
Natural Gas -1.13%
Brent Crude Oil +0.42%
Heating Oil +0.49%
Metals
Gold 100oz +0.00%
Platinum -0.08%
Palladium -0.80%
Silver 5000oz -0.13%
Copper +0.00%

Currencies

USDEUR:+0.07% USDJPY:-0.95%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) +0.08%
USDMXN(MEX) -0.05%
USDNGN(NGA) -7.62%
USDTRY(TUR) +0.07%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) +0.91%
USDCNY(CHN) -0.01%
USDINR(IND) +0.08%
USDRUB(RUS) -0.06%
USDZAR(ZAF) -0.14%
Agricultural
Orange Juice +0.00%
Soybean Meal -0.21%
Feeder Cattle +0.00%
Lean Hogs +0.00%
Cattle +0.00%
Coffee (Arabica) +0.00%
Cotton +0.00%
White Sugar +0.00%
Cocoa +0.00%
Coffee (Robusta) +0.00%
Corn -0.52%
Lumber +0.00%
Soybeans -0.05%
Sugar #11 +0.00%
Wheat -0.47%

Must Reads

‘Tapping RBI’s reserves to recap banks inadvisable’
Mumbai: D Subbarao’s recently-launched book ‘Who moved my interest rate?’ is the first such chronicle by a former central bank chief of his term in office.

Will Robots Ravage the Developing World?
When the Chinese appliance maker Midea Group announced a bid for the German robotics manufacturer Kuka AG this spring, it seemed like something of an omen.

Good luck!

Options Daily 26.07.2016

NIFTY Summary:

  1. Aug 8700 calls added 2,19,075 contracts.
  2. Aug 8400 calls shed 24,150.
  3. Aug 8500 puts added 4,25,100.
  4. Aug 7700 puts shed 19,275.

Our trend model indicates a SHORT on the NIFTY and SHORT on the BANKNIFTY.

JUL NIFTY OI

JUL NIFTY OI chart

JUL BANKNIFTY OI

JUL BANKNIFTY OI chart

AUG NIFTY OI

AUG NIFTY OI chart

AUG BANKNIFTY OI

AUG BANKNIFTY OI chart

NIFTY Weighted Avg. Open Interest

NIFTY Weighted Avg. Open Interest chart

JUL NIFTY Volatility

JUL NIFTY Volatility chart

JUL BANKNIFTY Volatility

JUL BANKNIFTY Volatility chart

AUG NIFTY Volatility

AUG NIFTY Volatility chart

AUG BANKNIFTY Volatility

AUG BANKNIFTY Volatility chart
Dotted lines indicated actual underlying volatility. Solid lines are IVs.

VIX Density Plot

VIX kernel density plot

5-day forecast based on ARMA(1,1)+GARCH(1,1) model:

VIX 15.73 15.76 15.78 15.80 15.82
σ 0.67 0.69 0.70 0.72 0.73

Marketwide OI

Securities under ban today: CEATLTD, IBREALEST, INDIACEM, JPASSOCIAT, KSCL, RCOM, WOCKPHARMA.
market wide position limit chart

Opening Bell 25.07.2016

Your world at 9am

world equity market heatmap

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) -0.09%
CAC(FRA) +0.11%
UKX(GBR) +0.46%
NKY(JPN) +0.38%
SPX(USA) +0.46%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) +0.24%
INMEX(MEX) +0.36%
NGSEINDX(NGA) -1.21%
XU030(TUR) -0.00%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) +0.64%
SHCOMP(CHN) +0.22%
NIFTY(IND) +0.37%
INDEXCF(RUS) -0.04%
TOP40(ZAF) +0.03%

Commodities

Energy
RBOB Gasoline -0.21%
WTI Crude Oil -0.14%
Ethanol +0.00%
Heating Oil -0.03%
Natural Gas +0.54%
Brent Crude Oil -0.15%
Metals
Gold 100oz -0.54%
Platinum -0.73%
Silver 5000oz -1.31%
Copper +0.00%
Palladium -1.03%

Currencies

USDEUR:+0.11% USDJPY:+0.36%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) +0.48%
USDMXN(MEX) +0.06%
USDNGN(NGA) +0.00%
USDTRY(TUR) -0.13%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) -0.47%
USDCNY(CHN) -0.03%
USDINR(IND) -0.14%
USDRUB(RUS) -0.13%
USDZAR(ZAF) +0.13%
Agricultural
Cocoa +0.00%
Corn -0.37%
Feeder Cattle +0.00%
Lean Hogs +0.00%
Orange Juice +0.00%
White Sugar +0.00%
Lumber +0.00%
Soybeans -0.47%
Sugar #11 +0.00%
Wheat +0.41%
Cattle +0.00%
Coffee (Arabica) +0.00%
Coffee (Robusta) +0.00%
Cotton -0.80%
Soybean Meal -0.52%

Must Reads

China’s growth sucks in more debt bucks for less bang
BEIJING As China’s economy notches up another quarter of steady growth, the pace of credit creation grows ever more frantic for every extra unit of production, as inefficient state firms swallow an increasing share of lending. The world’s second-largest economy grew 6.

India’s Thwarted Promise
On July 26, 1991, Manmohan Singh — then Finance Minister, and later Prime Minister for 10 years — rose in Parliament to deliver an address that would transform India. That speech, outlining the first budget of a just-elected government under Prime Minister P.V.

Earnings will improve over the next two years: Anand Shah, BNP Paribas AMC
What are your expectations from the June quarter earnings show? This quarter’s aggregate earnings growth may reinforce the notion that the worst is over. The improvement may not be drastic but it may show better growth compared to the last two years.

Start-ups can now fetch IPR benefits with just eligibility certificate
Making it easier for the aspiring entrepreneurs, the government today reformed the procedure of availing IPR-related benefits for the start-ups.

Reforms: The elephant can and will dance
In economic analyses, 25 years is a long enough period to fit a trend. In the summer of 1991 India flew out 67 tonnes of gold to Europe to get $600 million to tide over a dire import payments crisis.

Evolution Is Happening Faster Than We Thought
Amsterdam — A FRIEND recently invited me over to see the blackbird that had taken up residence in a potted plant on her balcony. Serenely incubating eggs in the inner city, this bird had little in common with its shy, reclusive ancestors that nested in Europe’s forests.

Sorry Mr. Venture Capitalist, You Should Have Seen This Coming
Now that the startup party is winding down, are we taking away the right, hard lessons from the unravelling of the Venture Capitalist-fuelled fantasy that we saw in the last three-four years? A the party starts to wind down, are we taking away the right, hard lessons from the unravelling of the

Good luck!