Opening Bell 01.09.2016

Your world at 9am

world equity market heatmap

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) -0.61%
CAC(FRA) -0.43%
UKX(GBR) -0.58%
NKY(JPN) +0.13%
SPX(USA) -0.24%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) -0.53%
INMEX(MEX) -0.18%
NGSEINDX(NGA) +0.39%
XU030(TUR) -0.13%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) -1.15%
SHCOMP(CHN) -0.23%
NIFTY(IND) +0.48%
INDEXCF(RUS) -0.71%
TOP40(ZAF) -1.19%

Commodities

Energy
Brent Crude Oil +0.45%
Ethanol +0.00%
RBOB Gasoline +0.49%
Heating Oil +0.45%
Natural Gas -0.66%
WTI Crude Oil +0.45%
Metals
Palladium +0.93%
Platinum +0.22%
Copper +0.05%
Silver 5000oz +0.53%
Gold 100oz +0.00%

Currencies

USDEUR:+0.01% USDJPY:-0.16%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) +0.13%
USDMXN(MEX) +0.10%
USDNGN(NGA) +0.32%
USDTRY(TUR) +0.01%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) -0.41%
USDCNY(CHN) +0.01%
USDINR(IND) +0.14%
USDRUB(RUS) -0.09%
USDZAR(ZAF) -0.14%
Agricultural
Coffee (Robusta) +0.00%
Feeder Cattle +0.00%
Cocoa +0.00%
Lean Hogs +0.00%
Wheat +0.62%
Coffee (Arabica) +0.00%
Lumber +0.00%
Sugar #11 +0.00%
Cattle +0.00%
Corn +0.33%
Cotton +0.00%
Orange Juice +0.00%
Soybean Meal +0.06%
Soybeans -0.10%
White Sugar +0.00%

Out of 42 world ETFs listed in NYSE that we track, 8 are trading above their 10-day SMA and 34 are trading above their 50-day SMA.

Must Reads

Cabinet approves NITI Aayog proposal to boost construction sector, restart stalled infra projects
NEW DELHI: The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs, chaired by Prime Minister Narendra Modi has approved a proposal by NITI Aayog on the construction sector which directs government and public sector bodies to release 75% of the arbitral award amount to a construction contractor against a margin f

India’s GDP growth slows down to 7.1%; lowest in last six quarters
The subdued growth is mostly due to mining, construction and farm sectors. Indian economy grew at the slowest pace in last six quarters at 7.1% Indian economy grew at the slowest pace in last six quarters at 7.

Quant Fund Gives Robots 364 Days Off to Best Currency Rivals
Like a lot of hedge funds, Principal Global Investors’ Macro Currency Group uses computer-driven models to devise trading strategies. What sets it apart is that its machines only make calls once a year.

The economics and politics of manufacturing fetishism
Donald Trump will bring ‘millions of manufacturing jobs’ to the US. Ohio – a key swing state – will become ‘a manufacturing behemoth’.  Hilary Clinton has promised $10 billion for manufacturing investment, and told her supporters ‘we need to get back to building things’.

FT.com

Check out our Global Macro Dashboard for currency, commodity, bonds and credit charts.

Good luck!

Options Daily 01.09.2016

NIFTY Summary:

  1. Sep 9000 calls added 5,63,775 contracts.
  2. Sep 8800 calls shed 3,82,125.
  3. Sep 8700 puts added 10,96,350.
  4. Sep 8000 puts shed 2,30,925.

Our trend model indicates a LONG on the NIFTY and LONG on the BANKNIFTY.

SEP NIFTY OI

SEP NIFTY OI chart

SEP BANKNIFTY OI

SEP BANKNIFTY OI chart

NIFTY Weighted Avg. Open Interest

NIFTY Weighted Avg. Open Interest chart

SEP NIFTY Volatility

SEP NIFTY Volatility chart

SEP BANKNIFTY Volatility

SEP BANKNIFTY Volatility chart
Dotted lines indicated actual underlying volatility. Solid lines are IVs.

VIX Density Plot

VIX kernel density plot

5-day forecast based on ARMA(1,1)+GARCH(1,1) model:

VIX 13.26 13.28 13.30 13.32 13.34
σ 0.64 0.66 0.68 0.69 0.71

2016-08-31 Implied Volatility Record

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GS1sGFrMLEU

Marketwide OI

Securities under ban today: JINDALSTEL.
market wide position limit chart

Opening Bell 31.08.2016

Your world at 9am

world equity market heatmap

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) +1.07%
CAC(FRA) +0.75%
UKX(GBR) -0.25%
NKY(JPN) +0.79%
SPX(USA) -0.20%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) +0.32%
INMEX(MEX) -0.00%
NGSEINDX(NGA) +0.46%
XU030(TUR) -1.46%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) -0.06%
SHCOMP(CHN) +0.15%
NIFTY(IND) +1.59%
INDEXCF(RUS) -0.05%
TOP40(ZAF) -0.20%

Commodities

Energy
Natural Gas +0.07%
RBOB Gasoline -0.19%
WTI Crude Oil -0.17%
Brent Crude Oil -0.12%
Ethanol +0.00%
Heating Oil -0.46%
Metals
Gold 100oz +0.11%
Palladium +1.30%
Silver 5000oz +0.55%
Copper +0.29%
Platinum +0.75%

Currencies

USDEUR:-0.13% USDJPY:+0.06%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) +0.14%
USDMXN(MEX) -0.11%
USDNGN(NGA) -6.99%
USDTRY(TUR) +0.02%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) +0.29%
USDCNY(CHN) -0.04%
USDINR(IND) +0.07%
USDRUB(RUS) -0.10%
USDZAR(ZAF) -0.08%
Agricultural
Corn +0.16%
Cotton +0.00%
Feeder Cattle +0.14%
Cattle +0.09%
Cocoa +0.00%
Lean Hogs -0.08%
Soybean Meal +0.00%
Soybeans +0.10%
Sugar #11 +0.00%
Coffee (Arabica) +0.00%
Lumber +0.29%
White Sugar +0.00%
Coffee (Robusta) +0.00%
Orange Juice +0.00%
Wheat +0.21%

Out of 42 world ETFs listed in NYSE that we track, 12 are trading above their 10-day SMA and 35 are trading above their 50-day SMA.

Must Reads

Is passive investing suitable for India?
Since 2008, the global asset management industry has been reeling under a relentless tsunami. While the assets under management (AUM) of actively managed mutual funds (MFs) have increased from $9.0 trillion to $13.4 trillion, passively managed index funds have surged from $0.6 trillion to $2.

How India’s digital economy can rediscover its mojo
[“Pillars of Creation”, a photograph of interstellar gas and dust in the Eagle Nebula, taken by the Hubble Space Telescope. They are so named because the gas and dust are in the process of creating new stars.

States want cos to share GST benefits with buyers
NEW DELHI: States want India Inc to pass on the benefits of a likely lower Goods and Services Tax to consumers, turning the tables on the industry, which had sought a moderate tax rate and fewer compliance requirements.

Fifth tranche of sovereign gold bond scheme opens on 1 September
Mumbai: The government is set to issue the fifth tranche of the sovereign gold bond scheme on 1 September. The tenure of the bond will be for a period of eight years with an exit option from the fifth year to be exercised on the interest payment dates.

IndAS and why the numbers don’t add up
The government is considering a shift to an accounting year ending in December, instead of March. That could mean companies too will follow suit, causing one more disruption for investors to contend with, just as a new accounting system has kicked in.

Check out our Global Macro Dashboard for currency, commodity, bonds and credit charts.

Good luck!

Options Daily 31.08.2016

NIFTY Summary:

  1. Sep 9000 calls added 12,27,525 contracts.
  2. Sep 8600 calls shed 4,72,200.
  3. Sep 8600 puts added 14,35,425.
  4. Sep 8200 puts shed 4,80,000.

Our trend model indicates a SHORT on the NIFTY and SHORT on the BANKNIFTY.

SEP NIFTY OI

SEP NIFTY OI chart

SEP BANKNIFTY OI

SEP BANKNIFTY OI chart

NIFTY Weighted Avg. Open Interest

NIFTY Weighted Avg. Open Interest chart

SEP NIFTY Volatility

SEP NIFTY Volatility chart

SEP BANKNIFTY Volatility

SEP BANKNIFTY Volatility chart
Dotted lines indicated actual underlying volatility. Solid lines are IVs.

VIX Density Plot

VIX kernel density plot

5-day forecast based on ARMA(0,0)+GARCH(1,1) model:

VIX 17.46 17.46 17.46 17.46 17.46
σ 4.61 4.77 4.93 5.08 5.23

2016-08-30 Implied Volatility Record

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fi-5gKQucoI

Marketwide OI

market wide position limit chart

Opening Bell 30.08.2016

Your world at 9am

world equity market heatmap

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) -0.41%
CAC(FRA) -0.40%
UKX(GBR) +0.31%
NKY(JPN) +0.03%
SPX(USA) +0.52%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) -0.10%
INMEX(MEX) +0.55%
NGSEINDX(NGA) -0.30%
XU030(TUR) -1.46%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) +1.55%
SHCOMP(CHN) -0.10%
NIFTY(IND) +0.41%
INDEXCF(RUS) -0.33%
TOP40(ZAF) +0.23%

Commodities

Energy
Brent Crude Oil +0.12%
Ethanol +0.00%
WTI Crude Oil +0.23%
Heating Oil +0.09%
Natural Gas -0.03%
RBOB Gasoline +0.29%
Metals
Gold 100oz -0.04%
Copper +0.60%
Silver 5000oz -0.10%
Palladium +0.14%
Platinum -0.13%

Currencies

USDEUR:+0.15% USDJPY:+0.21%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) -0.08%
USDMXN(MEX) +0.10%
USDNGN(NGA) +0.00%
USDTRY(TUR) +0.20%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) -1.07%
USDCNY(CHN) -0.07%
USDINR(IND) -0.09%
USDRUB(RUS) -0.03%
USDZAR(ZAF) +0.17%
Agricultural
Coffee (Robusta) +0.00%
Feeder Cattle +0.00%
Lumber +0.00%
Sugar #11 +0.00%
White Sugar +0.00%
Coffee (Arabica) +0.00%
Lean Hogs +0.00%
Corn -0.16%
Cotton -0.63%
Wheat +0.40%
Cattle +0.00%
Cocoa +0.00%
Orange Juice +0.00%
Soybean Meal -0.22%
Soybeans +0.03%

Out of 42 world ETFs listed in NYSE that we track, 12 are trading above their 10-day SMA and 36 are trading above their 50-day SMA.

Must Reads

Times of India
No insurance claim for theft committed without violence: SC Dhananjay Mahapatra The Supreme Court has ruled that a person or an entity can’t seek compensation on insured goods if theft happened without violence.

Yuan Bears Emerge From Hibernation as Fed Threatens G-20 Calm
The yuan’s recent stability may be coming to an end. Derivative markets are pointing to renewed bets on yuan depreciation, with a three-month measure of expected price swings poised for the biggest monthly increase since January.

Not a Drill: SETI Is Investigating a Possible Extraterrestrial Signal From Deep Space
An international team of scientists from the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SETI) is investigating mysterious signal spikes emitting from a 6.3-billion-year-old star in the constellation Hercules—95 light years away from Earth.

India is moving
Like many countries, even those enjoying a large measure of social cohesiveness, India lives in many self-contained echo chambers where group-think prevails.

Avanti Finance: Tata, Nilekani, Kelkar to set up microfinance firm
Ratan Tata, chairman emeritus of the Tata group, Nandan Nilekani, former chairman of the Unique Identification Authority of India, and former finance secretary Vijay Kelkar are joining hands to start a technology-enabled financial inclusion vehicle.

Are fleeting orders by high frequency traders a source of market abuse?
SEBI recently released its discussion paper on algorithmic trading. The paper proposes several measures to address various concerns that have been expressed about the rise of new technology in the field of financial markets.

The Anthropocene epoch: scientists declare dawn of human-influenced age
Experts say human impact on Earth so profound that Holocene must give way to epoch defined by nuclear tests, plastic pollution and domesticated chicken 08.00 EDT Last modified on Monday 29 August 2016 19.

Government To Amend Norms For Fixing Prices Of 350 Drugs In 15 Days
New Delhi: Drugs Prices Control Order will be amended in the next 15 days to enable the regulator NPPA to fix prices of about 350 medicines whose market data is not available, Union Minister Ananth Kumar said on Monday.

Check out our Global Macro Dashboard for currency, commodity, bonds and credit charts.

Good luck!