Monthly Recap: JunExit

world.2016-05-31.2016-06-30

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) -4.74%
CAC(FRA) -5.14%
UKX(GBR) +5.57%
NKY(JPN) -9.01%
SPX(USA) +0.66%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) +3.64%
INMEX(MEX) +0.84%
NGSEINDX(NGA) +5.91%
XU030(TUR) +0.49%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) +7.23%
SHCOMP(CHN) +0.54%
NIFTY(IND) +2.06%
INDEXCF(RUS) -0.13%
TOP40(ZAF) -4.08%

Commodities

Energy
Natural Gas +30.17%
WTI Crude Oil +0.16%
Ethanol -1.09%
RBOB Gasoline -5.50%
Heating Oil +2.04%
Brent Crude Oil +1.21%
Metals
Copper +6.22%
Platinum +8.45%
Silver 5000oz +23.75%
Gold 100oz +10.46%
Palladium +10.93%

Currencies

USDEUR:+0.00% USDJPY:-7.26%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) -3.91%
USDMXN(MEX) -0.63%
USDNGN(NGA) +41.74%
USDTRY(TUR) -1.71%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) -10.71%
USDCNY(CHN) +1.13%
USDINR(IND) +0.09%
USDRUB(RUS) -3.88%
USDZAR(ZAF) -7.32%
Agricultural
Cocoa +7.39%
Soybean Meal +2.12%
Soybeans +8.41%
Cattle -6.71%
Lean Hogs +2.70%
Lumber +1.68%
Wheat -10.73%
Coffee (Robusta) +4.29%
Corn -12.72%
Cotton -1.80%
White Sugar +17.27%
Coffee (Arabica) +19.34%
Feeder Cattle -3.30%
Orange Juice +19.45%
Sugar #11 +19.14%

Credit Indices

Index Change
Markit CDX EM +0.24%
Markit CDX NA HY -0.98%
Markit CDX NA IG +8.31%
Markit iTraxx Asia ex-Japan IG +6.85%
Markit iTraxx Australia +8.24%
Markit iTraxx Europe +22.86%
Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover +86.86%
Markit iTraxx Japan +8.40%
Markit MCDX (Municipal CDS) +5.17%
Brexit! Rexit! What, me worry?

International ETFs (USD)

global.etf.performance.2016-05-31.2016-06-30

Nifty Heatmap

NIFTY 50.2016-05-31.2016-06-30

Index Returns

index.performance.2016-05-31.2016-06-30
Check out our dashboard here.

Market Cap Decile Performance

deciles.perf.2016-06-30

Top Winners and Losers

VEDL +21.56%
BAJAJFINSV +27.51%
PNB +34.05%
ASHOKLEY -9.73%
INFRATEL -7.88%
UPL -7.62%
Have commodities bottomed out? Is the government’s bank capitalization and merger plan a “game changer?”

ETF Performance

PSUBNKBEES +10.71%
GOLDBEES +4.98%
CPSEETF +4.70%
JUNIORBEES +3.98%
BANKBEES +2.69%
NIFTYBEES +1.96%
INFRABEES +1.52%
PSU banks – because tax payer money is free!

Yield Curve

yieldCurve.2016-05-31.2016-06-30

Bond Indices

Sub Index Change in YTM Total Return(%)
0 5 -0.07 +0.83%
5 10 -0.07 +0.98%
10 15 -0.01 +0.71%
15 20 -0.08 +1.37%
20 30 -0.12 +1.88%
Bonds rallied across the board. Note the shift in the yield curve.

Investment Theme Performance

Momentum strategies regained their thrones after spending months in the boondocks…

Equity Mutual Funds

Bond Mutual Funds

Institutional flows

FIIs sold out bonds and bought into equities. DIIs did the opposite…
fii-investments.2014-01-01.2016-06-30

dii-investments.2014-01-01.2016-06-30

US Treasuries

ust-yield-curve.2011-01-18

Looks like Indian bonds are no where near overbought compared to US Treasuries.
ust-ind-10yr-spread.2011-01-18

Book of the month

Black Box Thinking: Why Most People Never Learn from Their Mistakes–But Some Do (Amazon)

The only way to improve decision making is to record everything and use the telemetry to deconstruct failure. Once we know why something went wrong, we can go back to improving the decision making process. Much like how every airline crash is an opportunity to learn and improve flight safety. Investors will find a lot of takeaways from this book.

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