Category: Your Money

Correlation Update 11.04.2015

Nifty one year daily return correlations

Nifty one year daily return correlations

Nifty one month daily return correlations

Nifty one month daily return correlations

Bank Nifty one year daily return correlations

Bank Nifty one year daily return correlations

Bank Nifty one month daily return correlations

Bank Nifty one month daily return correlations

Midcap one year daily return correlations

Midcap one year daily return correlations

Midcap one month daily return correlations

Midcap one month daily return correlations

A lot of thick blue squares mean that positive correlations are high. Red squares mean negative correlations are high. Whites are the doldrums.

Monthly Recap: Robot in the China store?

world.2015-2-27.2015-3-31

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) +4.96%
CAC(FRA) +2.48%
UKX(GBR) -1.63%
NKY(JPN) +3.39%
SPX(USA) -2.02%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) +0.11%
INMEX(MEX) -0.19%
NGSEINDX(NGA) +18.68%
XU030(TUR) -2.85%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) +2.41%
SHCOMP(CHN) +16.72%
NIFTY(IND) -2.92%
INDEXCF(RUS) -4.43%
TOP40(ZAF) -2.36%

Commodities

Energy
Brent Crude Oil -10.09%
WTI Crude Oil +1.01%
Heating Oil -23.24%
Ethanol +9.68%
Natural Gas -0.59%
RBOB Gasoline -0.11%
Metals
Palladium -8.72%
Silver 5000oz +0.60%
Platinum -2.66%
Gold 100oz -1.21%
Copper +1.48%

Currencies

USDEUR:+2.88% USDJPY:-0.02%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) +0.63%
USDMXN(MEX) +0.50%
USDNGN(NGA) -1.89%
USDTRY(TUR) +3.30%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) +9.03%
USDCNY(CHN) -1.26%
USDINR(IND) +1.07%
USDRUB(RUS) -8.43%
USDZAR(ZAF) +2.31%
Agricultural
Corn +0.39%
Cotton -0.53%
Sugar #11 -8.55%
Wheat +3.22%
Coffee (Arabica) +2.84%
Coffee (Robusta) -5.17%
White Sugar -1.21%
Cattle +1.89%
Cocoa -4.76%
Lean Hogs -6.81%
Lumber -6.01%
Soybeans -4.13%
Feeder Cattle +9.48%
Orange Juice +2.60%
Soybean Meal -7.10%

Credit Indices

Index Change
Markit CDX EM -0.40%
Markit CDX NA IG +2.83%
Markit iTraxx Asia ex-Japan IG +1.68%
Markit iTraxx Australia -3.30%
Markit iTraxx Europe +1.27%
Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover +3.62%
Markit iTraxx Japan -7.25%
Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe -0.63%
Markit LCDX (Loan CDS) -0.10%
Markit MCDX (Municipal CDS) +3.28%
The Shanghai stock market was on fire this month while Europe was enjoying QE sugar highs. Nifty got dinged early on but recovered towards the end of the month.

Index Returns

index performance.2015-2-27.2015-3-31

Sector Performance

sector performance.2015-2-27.2015-3-31

Advance Decline

advance.decline.line2.2015-2-27.2015-3-31

Market Cap Decile Performance

Decile Mkt. Cap. Adv/Decl
1 (micro) -13.05% 64/69
2 -11.54% 52/81
3 -10.26% 47/86
4 -5.80% 62/71
5 -6.35% 57/75
6 -4.82% 55/78
7 -2.37% 66/67
8 -0.22% 76/57
9 +0.71% 67/66
10 (mega) -1.25% 68/65
Red ink across the board with small caps hit exceptionally hard…

Top Winners and Losers

SUNPHARMA +16.50%
AUROPHARMA +18.24%
IDEA +18.90%
JINDALSTEL -19.11%
ITC -17.23%
BANKINDIA -16.87%
Pharma broadly out-performed the rest…

ETF Performance

INFRABEES +0.77%
GOLDBEES -1.55%
JUNIORBEES -1.92%
CPSEETF -2.89%
NIFTYBEES -4.29%
BANKBEES -5.23%
PSUBNKBEES -9.61%
PSU banks – have they finally found a bottom?

Yield Curve

yield Curve.2015-2-27.2015-3-31

Interbank lending rates

mibor.30days.2015-3-31

Bond Indices

Sub Index Change in YTM Total Return(%)
GSEC TB -0.16 +0.73%
GSEC SUB 1-3 +0.05 +0.47%
GSEC SUB 3-8 +0.00 +0.87%
GSEC SUB 8 -0.01 +0.29%
Almost motionless…

Investment Theme Performance

Equity Mutual Funds

Bond Mutual Funds

Something to think about

China is letting low-cost production shift out of the country and is focusing instead on capital-intensive industries. Chinese labor costs have soared, undermining the calculus that brought all those jobs to China in the first place, and new robot technology is cheaper and easier to deploy than ever before.

But, if everybody has access to the same technology, why manufacture in China and pay shipping?

Source: WSJ

Quarterly Recap: January-March 2015

world.2014-12-31.2015-3-31

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) +22.03%
CAC(FRA) +17.81%
UKX(GBR) +3.15%
NKY(JPN) +9.07%
SPX(USA) -0.39%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) +4.42%
INMEX(MEX) +1.58%
NGSEINDX(NGA) -8.38%
XU030(TUR) -6.67%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) +2.29%
SHCOMP(CHN) +17.47%
NIFTY(IND) +2.28%
INDEXCF(RUS) +16.44%
TOP40(ZAF) +4.66%

Commodities

Energy
Natural Gas -10.56%
RBOB Gasoline +23.79%
Brent Crude Oil -3.03%
Ethanol -7.64%
Heating Oil -8.72%
WTI Crude Oil -10.42%
Metals
Gold 100oz -0.07%
Palladium -7.66%
Platinum -5.79%
Silver 5000oz +5.73%
Copper -3.17%

Currencies

USDEUR:+12.23% USDJPY:-0.20%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) +5.09%
USDMXN(MEX) +3.29%
USDNGN(NGA) +8.49%
USDTRY(TUR) +10.93%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) +20.28%
USDCNY(CHN) -0.15%
USDINR(IND) -0.87%
USDRUB(RUS) +0.00%
USDZAR(ZAF) +4.56%
Agricultural
Cocoa -3.70%
Lean Hogs -23.73%
Lumber -16.98%
Soybean Meal -9.07%
Cattle -2.64%
Coffee (Arabica) -21.60%
Corn -5.31%
Feeder Cattle -0.42%
Orange Juice -11.80%
Sugar #11 -17.63%
White Sugar -9.27%
Coffee (Robusta) -10.31%
Cotton +3.69%
Soybeans -3.67%
Wheat -12.19%

Credit Indices

Index Change
Markit CDX EM -2.01%
Markit CDX NA HY +1.59%
Markit CDX NA IG -1.99%
Markit iTraxx Asia ex-Japan IG -2.45%
Markit iTraxx Australia -11.70%
Markit iTraxx Europe -12.30%
Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover -79.11%
Markit iTraxx Japan -13.85%
Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe -4.07%
Markit LCDX (Loan CDS) +0.17%
Markit MCDX (Municipal CDS) +6.37%
The Nifty managed to squeeze out a dribble of green but was nowhere near the best performing market Germany that clocked in a QE induced +22.03% whopper.

Index Returns

index performance.2014-12-31.2015-3-31

Advance Decline

advance.decline.line2.2014-12-31.2015-3-31

Market Cap Decile Performance

Decile Mkt. Cap. Adv/Decl
1 (micro) -16.75% 60/74
2 -9.15% 54/79
3 -8.44% 55/78
4 -5.13% 55/78
5 -2.03% 52/81
6 +1.01% 65/68
7 +6.19% 69/64
8 +6.27% 76/57
9 +5.97% 72/61
10 (mega) +5.01% 68/66
Large-caps out-performed small-caps.

Top Winners and Losers

BHARATFORG +35.22%
LUPIN +40.65%
SIEMENS +53.97%
BANKINDIA -35.11%
UNIONBANK -34.63%
PNB -34.09%
PSU banks got rightfully pummeled. You know shit is bad when government employees stage a dharna on NPAs.

ETF Performance

INFRABEES +9.96%
JUNIORBEES +4.03%
NIFTYBEES +1.43%
GOLDBEES -2.65%
CPSEETF -3.16%
BANKBEES -4.48%
PSUBNKBEES -19.79%
Infrastructure was a surprise winner…

Yield Curve

yield Curve.2014-12-31.2015-3-31

Bond Indices

Sub Index Change in YTM Total Return(%)
GSEC TB -0.30 +2.03%
GSEC SUB 1-3 -0.53 +1.43%
GSEC SUB 3-8 -0.10 +2.45%
GSEC SUB 8 -0.19 +2.27%
Rate cuts and lower inflation gave bonds a boost…

Investment Theme Performance

Momentum worked, low volatility worked better. High beta was left behind. Quality-to-price out-performed midcaps…

Equity Mutual Funds

Bond Mutual Funds

Refactored Indices

Housekeeping

A number of cool things happened on StockViz this quarter:

  1. We released our Android app. It is plain torture to develop. Hope you find it useful.
  2. We moved our website to SSL to ensure that your browsing is encrypted.
  3. We have a tax report that our investors will find useful during filing time. We will soon have tools that will optimize your trades with taxes in mind.

Weekly Recap: Experience vs. Memory

world.2015-03-20.2015-03-27

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) -1.42%
CAC(FRA) -1.05%
UKX(GBR) -2.39%
NKY(JPN) -1.40%
SPX(USA) -2.43%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) -0.85%
INMEX(MEX) -1.38%
NGSEINDX(NGA) +4.19%
XU030(TUR) -2.11%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) -3.75%
SHCOMP(CHN) +2.04%
NIFTY(IND) -2.68%
INDEXCF(RUS) -3.51%
TOP40(ZAF) -1.96%

Commodities

Energy
Ethanol +0.20%
WTI Crude Oil +5.63%
Brent Crude Oil +2.21%
Natural Gas -4.59%
Heating Oil -0.01%
RBOB Gasoline +0.28%
Metals
Copper -0.36%
Gold 100oz +1.09%
Silver 5000oz +1.19%
Palladium -5.09%
Platinum +0.08%

Currencies

USDEUR:-0.58% USDJPY:-0.86%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) -0.45%
USDMXN(MEX) +1.29%
USDNGN(NGA) -0.10%
USDTRY(TUR) +1.33%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) +0.48%
USDCNY(CHN) +0.18%
USDINR(IND) -0.08%
USDRUB(RUS) -2.49%
USDZAR(ZAF) +0.06%
Agricultural
Cattle +2.56%
Corn +1.36%
Feeder Cattle +1.78%
Wheat -4.05%
Cotton +0.92%
Soybeans -0.46%
Sugar #11 -4.65%
White Sugar -1.91%
Coffee (Arabica) -3.53%
Coffee (Robusta) -0.66%
Lumber +0.28%
Soybean Meal -0.68%
Cocoa -1.29%
Lean Hogs +4.79%
Orange Juice +10.93%

Credit Indices

Index Change
Markit CDX EM +0.62%
Markit CDX NA HY +0.09%
Markit CDX NA IG +0.79%
Markit iTraxx Asia ex-Japan IG -1.54%
Markit iTraxx Australia -0.45%
Markit iTraxx Europe -1.36%
Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover -1.06%
Markit iTraxx Japan -1.24%
Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe -0.42%
Markit LCDX (Loan CDS) +0.00%
Markit MCDX (Municipal CDS) +1.48%
It was a sea of red ink in the markets this week. Oil gyrated and the US Dollar ended mixed.

Nifty Heatmap

CNX NIFTY.2015-03-20.2015-03-27

Index Returns

index performance.2015-03-20.2015-03-27

Sector Performance

sector performance.2015-03-20.2015-03-27

Advance Decline

advance.decline.line2.2015-03-20.2015-03-27

Market Cap Decile Performance

Decile Mkt. Cap. Adv/Decl
1 (micro) -12.20% 58/76
2 -8.87% 52/81
3 -7.74% 50/83
4 -7.73% 52/81
5 -6.92% 54/79
6 -6.81% 57/77
7 -5.57% 47/86
8 -5.34% 56/77
9 -3.95% 62/71
10 (mega) -3.40% 68/66
Stocks across the board got shellacked…

Top Winners and Losers

BPCL +3.10%
AUROPHARMA +3.97%
UPL +4.30%
PNB -9.89%
SRTRANSFIN -9.15%
BOSCHLTD -7.88%
Momentum names were hurt the most…

ETF Performance

GOLDBEES +1.61%
INFRABEES -1.04%
CPSEETF -2.44%
NIFTYBEES -2.71%
BANKBEES -3.15%
JUNIORBEES -3.24%
PSUBNKBEES -5.50%
PSU banks are yet to fully acknowledge the full extent of NPAs. Also, who is going to fill the holes in their balance-sheets?

Yield Curve

yield Curve.2015-03-20.2015-03-27

Bond Indices

Sub Index Change in YTM Total Return(%)
GSEC TB +0.35 +0.03%
GSEC SUB 1-3 +0.38 -0.33%
GSEC SUB 3-8 +0.12 -0.80%
GSEC SUB 8 +0.04 -0.54%
The long end of the curve came under a bit of pressure…

Investment Theme Performance

Equity Mutual Funds

Bond Mutual Funds

Thought to sum up the week

Our “experiencing selves” and our “remembering selves” perceive facts differently.

Index Update 28.03.2015

MOMENTUM

We run our proprietary momentum scoring algorithm on indices just like we do on stocks. You can use the momentum scores of sub-indices to get a sense for which sectors have the wind on their backs and those that are facing headwinds.

Traders can pick their longs in sectors with high short-term momentum and their shorts in sectors with low momentum. Investors can use the longer lookback scores to position themselves using our re-factored index Themes.

You can see how the momentum algorithm has performed on individual stocks here.

Here are the best and the worst sub-indices:

index momentum best 365 2015-03-27 png

index momentum best 50 2015-03-27 png

index momentum worst 365 2015-03-27 png

index momentum worst 50 2015-03-27 png

Refactored Index Performance

50-day performance, from January 15, 2015 through March 27, 2015: