Category: Your Money

Weekly Recap: Profit Destroying Innovation

world.2015-06-05.2015-06-12

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) -0.01%
CAC(FRA) -0.40%
UKX(GBR) -0.29%
NKY(JPN) -0.26%
SPX(USA) -0.09%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) -3.23%
INMEX(MEX) +0.25%
NGSEINDX(NGA) -0.13%
XU030(TUR) -1.88%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) +0.44%
SHCOMP(CHN) +2.85%
NIFTY(IND) -1.62%
INDEXCF(RUS) +0.01%
TOP40(ZAF) +0.30%

Commodities

Energy
Natural Gas +6.59%
Ethanol -4.26%
Brent Crude Oil +1.08%
Heating Oil +0.94%
WTI Crude Oil +1.64%
RBOB Gasoline +4.58%
Metals
Copper -0.74%
Gold 100oz +1.02%
Palladium -1.90%
Platinum +0.16%
Silver 5000oz -0.63%

Currencies

USDEUR:-1.33% USDJPY:-1.77%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) +0.34%
USDMXN(MEX) -2.04%
USDNGN(NGA) +0.22%
USDTRY(TUR) +1.75%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) -1.09%
USDCNY(CHN) +0.09%
USDINR(IND) +0.48%
USDRUB(RUS) -2.13%
USDZAR(ZAF) -1.56%
Agricultural
Cattle -0.28%
Cocoa +0.05%
White Sugar -0.97%
Cotton +0.61%
Lumber +1.45%
Orange Juice +5.35%
Corn -2.15%
Feeder Cattle +0.90%
Coffee (Arabica) -2.01%
Coffee (Robusta) +0.17%
Lean Hogs -0.61%
Soybean Meal +4.00%
Soybeans +0.13%
Sugar #11 -2.98%
Wheat -2.65%

Credit Indices

Index Change
Markit CDX EM -0.48%
Markit CDX NA HY -0.19%
Markit CDX NA IG +0.14%
Markit iTraxx Asia ex-Japan IG +1.99%
Markit iTraxx Australia +1.42%
Markit iTraxx Europe +1.14%
Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover +0.36%
Markit iTraxx Japan +2.32%
Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe +0.28%
Markit LCDX (Loan CDS) -0.02%
Markit MCDX (Municipal CDS) -0.16%
A huge wave of volatility consumed pretty much all asset classes this week. Bonds – down, equities – down, rupee – down; euro – up. Are we done yet?

Nifty Heatmap

CNX NIFTY.2015-06-05.2015-06-12

Index Returns

For a deeper dive into indices, check out our weekly Index Update.
indexperformance.2015-06-05.2015-06-12

Sector Performance

sectorperformance.2015-06-05.2015-06-12

Advance Decline

advance.decline.line2.2015-06-05.2015-06-12

Market Cap Decile Performance

Decile Mkt. Cap. Adv/Decl
1 (micro) -8.21% 59/68
2 -2.71% 58/70
3 -2.35% 58/70
4 -3.39% 61/67
5 -2.31% 58/70
6 -2.26% 61/67
7 -2.15% 57/71
8 -3.77% 58/70
9 -2.61% 58/70
10 (mega) -1.82% 60/68
A total bloodbath across market caps…

Top Winners and Losers

GLENMARK +4.08%
ICICIBANK +4.17%
OFSS +4.18%
BANKBARODA -8.30%
PNB -8.21%
BOSCHLTD -7.71%
Bosch was once a boring old manufacturing company but they had to go and include it in the Nifty and ruin it for everyone…

ETF Performance

INFRABEES +0.43%
BANKBEES +0.21%
GOLDBEES +0.01%
JUNIORBEES -1.45%
CPSEETF -1.58%
NIFTYBEES -1.58%
PSUBNKBEES -2.63%
PSU banks back to being kicked around…

Yield Curve

yield Curve.2015-06-05.2015-06-12

Bond Indices

Sub Index Change in YTM Total Return(%)
GSEC TB -0.63 +0.33%
GSEC SUB 1-3 -0.29 +0.84%
GSEC SUB 3-8 -0.07 +0.17%
GSEC SUB 8 +0.29 -2.69%
Are long bonds reflecting global liquidity jitters or are they signalling higher inflation?

Investment Theme Performance

Equity Mutual Funds

Bond Mutual Funds

Thought for the weekend

We may have entered a great period of profit destroying innovation where the benefits accrue more and more to the customers and not the providers.

For instance, for almost every SaaS company that charges for features there are now new companies being built that give the features away with the goal of charging for some activity in the network that they are looking to build.

Source: Valuations, Profit Destroying Innovation and Winner’s Curse

Index Update 13.06.2015

MOMENTUM

We run our proprietary momentum scoring algorithm on indices just like we do on stocks. You can use the momentum scores of sub-indices to get a sense for which sectors have the wind on their backs and those that are facing headwinds.

Traders can pick their longs in sectors with high short-term momentum and their shorts in sectors with low momentum. Investors can use the longer lookback scores to position themselves using our re-factored index Themes.

You can see how the momentum algorithm has performed on individual stocks here.

Here are the best and the worst sub-indices:

index momentum best 365 2015-06-12 png

index momentum best 50 2015-06-12 png

index momentum worst 365 2015-06-12 png

index momentum worst 50 2015-06-12 png

Relative Strength Spread

CNX_500 relative-spread-index 50 2015-06-12 png

Refactored Index Performance

50-day performance, from March 31, 2015 through June 12, 2015:

Trend Model Summary

Index Signal % From Peak Day of Peak
CNX AUTO LONG
13.13
2015-Jan-27
CNX BANK LONG
14.75
2015-Jan-27
CNX ENERGY SHORT
30.29
2008-Jan-14
CNX FMCG LONG
15.47
2015-Feb-25
CNX INFRA SHORT
49.72
2008-Jan-09
CNX IT LONG
88.43
2000-Feb-21
CNX MEDIA SHORT
29.56
2008-Jan-04
CNX METAL LONG
59.10
2008-Jan-04
CNX MNC LONG
8.01
2015-Mar-12
CNX NIFTY LONG
11.26
2015-Mar-03
CNX PHARMA LONG
18.09
2015-Apr-08
CNX PSE SHORT
26.34
2008-Jan-04
CNX REALTY LONG
90.71
2008-Jan-14
Given the state of the relative strength spread, good luck with trend following strategies! But it looks like there are some sectors where a positive trend is reasserting itself. Are we seeing green shoots in pharma, media and banks?

Correlation Update 13.06.2015

Nifty one year daily return correlations

Nifty one year daily return correlations

Nifty one month daily return correlations

Nifty one month daily return correlations

Bank Nifty one year daily return correlations

Bank Nifty one year daily return correlations

Bank Nifty one month daily return correlations

Bank Nifty one month daily return correlations

Midcap one year daily return correlations

Midcap one year daily return correlations

Midcap one month daily return correlations

Midcap one month daily return correlations

A lot of thick blue squares mean that positive correlations are high. Red squares mean negative correlations are high. Whites are the doldrums.

Mutual Fund Performance in Bear Markets

Introduction

During our discussion on Relative Strength Spread, we saw how the relative performance between winners and losers were compressed in the bear markets of 2011, 2012 and 2013. During these doldrums, most active investment strategies fail to outperform their benchmarks. Since most mutual fund investments span multiple bull and bear markets, it makes sense to have a look at how funds performed in the most recent bear market.

For our analysis, we took funds that had more than 90% allocated in equities and ignored sector and international funds. We then applied the same benchmark, the CNX Midcap Index, to make sure that we had an apples-to-apples comparison. A total of 200 funds were analyzed.

The 10 worst funds

Information Ratio

Sharpe Ratio

Beta

Bear Beta

Draw down depth

Draw down length

The 10 best funds

Information Ratio

Sharpe Ratio

Beta

Bear Beta

Draw down depth

Draw down length

Conclusion

The Birla MNC fund stands out as one having the most points in its favour: low and shallow drawdown, better sharpe and higher returns. The next stand outs were the Axis Long-term equity fund and the Mirae Asset Emerging Bluechip Fund.

In terms of the worst funds, HSBC Progressive Themes was definitely regressive to your wealth. JM Basic and Sundram SMILE funds also laid a deuce.

Mutual funds are marketed as wealth builders. However, the truth is that most of them struggle. At last count, there were more than 5300 different schemes that you could choose from.

Are you getting the right advise? Get in touch with us if you are looking to invest! Call us or Whatsapp us at +918026650232

Relative Strength Spread

Introduction

The Relative Strength Spread takes all the stocks in the CNX 500 index, sorts them by their relative performance vs. the index and takes the ratio between the median relative performance of the top decile and the bottom decile. When you plot the spread, a rising chart indicates that relative strength leaders are performing better than relative strength laggards.

Relative Strength Spread Charts

CNX 500.relative-spread-index.50

CNX 500.relative-spread-index.100

CNX 500.relative-spread-index.365

High Relative Strength Spread environments provide the largest momentum profits – winning trades easily eclipse losing trades.

The 365-day RS-Spread chart clearly demarcates the “Modi-Mania.” The Modi-Mania was manna from heaven for trend-following strategies. However, the post-Modi-Mania phase has seem most momentum algorithms struggle.

A silver-lining is that the 50-day chart shows that we are probably due for a momentum comeback. But it is not uncommon to have prolonged periods of the “doldrums” where momentum is just “average.” It maybe tempting to give up on trend-following strategies during these periods. But just like how we cannot predict momentum crashes, we cannot predict momentum comebacks. So it is important to maintain allocation to momentum strategies.

Conclusion

The Relative Strength Spread index can be useful in explaining momentum profits. However, it is not much of a predictor of future momentum returns. It could also be used to explain the “skill vs. luck” question of returns – just like how a rising tide lifts all boats, a high RS-Spread environment will lift all portfolio returns.

Going forward, we will update the 50-day Relative Strength Spread chart on our weekly Index Update posts.