Category: Your Money

Weekly Recap: Selective Memory

world.2015-11-13.2015-11-20

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) +3.84%
CAC(FRA) +2.14%
UKX(GBR) +3.54%
NKY(JPN) +1.44%
SPX(USA) +2.85%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) +1.98%
INMEX(MEX) +2.60%
NGSEINDX(NGA) -2.46%
XU030(TUR) -1.54%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) +3.25%
SHCOMP(CHN) +1.39%
NIFTY(IND) +1.21%
INDEXCF(RUS) +5.70%
TOP40(ZAF) +2.14%

Commodities

Energy
Brent Crude Oil +2.06%
Ethanol +1.35%
Heating Oil -1.43%
Natural Gas -8.15%
WTI Crude Oil +2.45%
RBOB Gasoline +4.01%
Metals
Silver 5000oz +0.00%
Gold 100oz +0.15%
Copper -5.56%
Palladium +4.18%
Platinum -0.94%

Currencies

USDEUR:+0.78% USDJPY:-0.05%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) -0.45%
USDMXN(MEX) -1.02%
USDNGN(NGA) +0.76%
USDTRY(TUR) -1.18%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) -3.21%
USDCNY(CHN) +0.17%
USDINR(IND) +0.15%
USDRUB(RUS) -3.26%
USDZAR(ZAF) -3.01%
Agricultural
Cattle -0.80%
Lumber +0.68%
Wheat -1.47%
Cocoa +0.26%
Coffee (Robusta) -0.70%
Soybeans -0.32%
Sugar #11 +1.86%
White Sugar +4.94%
Corn +1.32%
Feeder Cattle -6.95%
Soybean Meal -1.84%
Coffee (Arabica) +9.60%
Cotton -2.69%
Lean Hogs +5.30%
Orange Juice -2.26%

Credit Indices

Index Change
Markit CDX EM +0.61%
Markit CDX NA HY +0.54%
Markit CDX NA IG -1.51%
Markit iTraxx Asia ex-Japan IG +2.39%
Markit iTraxx Australia +2.61%
Markit iTraxx Europe -3.07%
Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover -11.47%
Markit iTraxx Japan +3.63%
Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe -0.51%
Markit LCDX (Loan CDS) +0.00%
Markit MCDX (Municipal CDS) -0.75%
It was a good week for the markets over all. Risk was firmly ON and most markets rallied. The market is expecting a US Fed December liftoff. The USD continued to rally against other major currencies, European bonds dipped in negative-yield territory on rumors of more ECB QE and oil dipped bellow $40 a barrel.

International ETFs (USD)

global.etf.performance.2015-11-13.2015-11-20

Nifty Heatmap

NIFTY 50.2015-11-13.2015-11-20

Index Returns

For a deeper dive into indices, check out our weekly Index Update.
index.performance.2015-11-13.2015-11-20

Market Cap Decile Performance

Decile Mkt. Cap. Adv/Decl
1 (micro) +2.00% 66/65
2 +5.28% 70/60
3 +2.36% 65/65
4 +2.32% 74/57
5 +1.82% 68/62
6 +2.32% 69/61
7 +1.76% 69/62
8 +1.65% 63/67
9 +1.54% 70/60
10 (mega) +0.95% 66/65
What? Me Worry?

Top Winners and Losers

PETRONET +7.70%
CROMPGREAV +9.11%
GAIL +23.95%
PFC -5.31%
AXISBANK -5.18%
INFY -4.40%
What happened to AXISBANK? Its down more than 30% since March this year…

ETF Performance

INFRABEES +1.67%
CPSEETF +1.59%
JUNIORBEES +1.43%
PSUBNKBEES +1.21%
NIFTYBEES +0.97%
BANKBEES +0.81%
GOLDBEES +0.26%
Given gold bonds, will GOLDBEES continue?

Yield Curve

yieldCurve.2015-11-13.2015-11-20

Bond Indices

Sub Index Change in YTM Total Return(%)
0 5 +0.04 +0.05%
5 10 +0.04 -0.05%
10 15 +0.03 -0.10%
15 20 +0.05 -0.26%
20 30 +0.02 -0.11%
Bond yields widened – is it the pay-commission effect?

Investment Theme Performance

Pretty much every investment strategy ended the week in the green. We introduced a new momentum strategy: Acceleration. Do check it out.

Equity Mutual Funds

Bond Mutual Funds

Thoughts for the weekend

Force yourself to relive the anxiety and worry of being down 5% and wondering if 20% is coming next. Remember what it was like to worry that war might break out or disease was spreading or economic collapse was around the corner. Not because this alone is a good practice, but because it is going to happen again, and sooner than you think. It happens every year like clockwork. You can’t pick a time in history that something scary wasn’t around the corner. You need to hold on to those past moment and then recognize that even though it was truly scary life moved on and markets recovered and the world didn’t, in fact, come to an end.

Source: My Dangerously Selective Memory

Index Update 21.11.2015

MOMENTUM

We run our proprietary momentum scoring algorithm on indices just like we do on stocks. You can use the momentum scores of sub-indices to get a sense for which sectors have the wind on their backs and those that are facing headwinds.

Traders can pick their longs in sectors with high short-term momentum and their shorts in sectors with low momentum. Investors can use the longer lookback scores to position themselves using our re-factored index Themes.

You can see how the momentum algorithm has performed on individual stocks here.

Here are the best and the worst sub-indices:

index momentum best 365 2015-11-20 png

index momentum best 50 2015-11-20 png

index momentum worst 365 2015-11-20 png

index momentum worst 50 2015-11-20 png

Relative Strength Spread

NIFTY_500 relative-spread-index 50 2015-11-20 png

Refactored Index Performance

50-day performance, from September 04, 2015 through November 20, 2015:

Trend Model Summary

Index Signal % From Peak Day of Peak
NIFTY AUTO SHORT
8.35
2015-Jan-27
NIFTY BANK SHORT
17.03
2015-Jan-27
NIFTY COMMODITIES LONG
36.30
2008-Jan-04
NIFTY CONSUMPTION SHORT
5.11
2015-Aug-05
NIFTY ENERGY SHORT
32.35
2008-Jan-14
NIFTY FIN SERVICE SHORT
15.36
2015-Jan-28
NIFTY FMCG SHORT
8.28
2015-Feb-25
NIFTY INFRA SHORT
56.17
2008-Jan-09
NIFTY IT LONG
88.36
2000-Feb-21
NIFTY MEDIA LONG
19.97
2008-Jan-04
NIFTY METAL SHORT
68.58
2008-Jan-04
NIFTY MNC SHORT
9.35
2015-Aug-10
NIFTY PHARMA LONG
15.51
2015-Apr-08
NIFTY PSE LONG
34.98
2008-Jan-04
NIFTY PSU BANK LONG
41.92
2010-Nov-05
NIFTY REALTY LONG
91.28
2008-Jan-14
NIFTY SERV SECTOR LONG
13.63
2015-Mar-03
Is there a dash-for-trash thing going on where the beaten-down, heavily leveraged sectors are finding a bid? Look at the recent performance of INFRA and ENERGY. Is this a blip or a fundamental shift?

Samvat 2071: Bulls made money, Bears made money…

world.2014-10-27.2015-11-10

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) +21.68%
CAC(FRA) +19.90%
UKX(GBR) -1.39%
NKY(JPN) +27.72%
SPX(USA) +6.16%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) -11.40%
INMEX(MEX) +0.06%
NGSEINDX(NGA) -25.16%
XU030(TUR) +2.87%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) -8.68%
SHCOMP(CHN) +58.59%
NIFTY(IND) -2.61%
INDEXCF(RUS) +25.29%
TOP40(ZAF) +10.24%

Commodities

Energy
Ethanol -15.34%
Heating Oil -40.11%
Natural Gas -34.44%
WTI Crude Oil -45.96%
Brent Crude Oil -44.91%
RBOB Gasoline -37.32%
Metals
Palladium -23.91%
Gold 100oz -11.43%
Copper -27.92%
Platinum -27.90%
Silver 5000oz -15.79%

Currencies

USDEUR:+18.07% USDJPY:+14.13%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) +12.05%
USDMXN(MEX) +23.36%
USDNGN(NGA) +20.74%
USDTRY(TUR) +30.43%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) +48.29%
USDCNY(CHN) +4.03%
USDINR(IND) +8.17%
USDRUB(RUS) +52.65%
USDZAR(ZAF) +30.19%
Agricultural
Feeder Cattle -27.98%
Lumber -23.89%
Coffee (Arabica) -39.01%
Corn -0.96%
Lean Hogs -39.92%
Soybeans -13.54%
Sugar #11 -8.29%
Cocoa +16.12%
Cotton -2.18%
Soybean Meal -22.16%
Wheat -5.69%
Cattle -24.30%
Coffee (Robusta) -21.21%
Orange Juice +8.52%
White Sugar -8.77%

International ETFs (USD)

global.etf.performance.2014-10-27.2015-11-10

Index Returns

index.performance.2014-10-27.2015-11-10

Market Cap Decile Performance

Decile Mkt. Cap. Adv/Decl
1 (micro) +29.48% 79/55
2 +42.65% 76/58
3 +11.26% 64/70
4 +19.62% 72/61
5 +15.77% 66/68
6 +18.22% 72/62
7 +13.38% 71/62
8 +15.21% 72/62
9 +11.70% 73/61
10 (mega) +5.37% 79/55
Most of the action was in the mid-and-small cap arena. Lot of dispersion, lot of good opportunities…

ETF Performance

JUNIORBEES +13.87%
BANKBEES +1.48%
NIFTYBEES -2.09%
GOLDBEES -5.69%
INFRABEES -15.20%
PSUBNKBEES -15.91%
CPSEETF -18.37%
The private sector created wealth and the public sector destroyed it.

Yield Curve

yieldCurve.2014-10-27.2015-11-10

Bond Indices

Sub Index Change in YTM Total Return(%)
0 5 -0.83 +10.59%
5 10 -0.65 +12.11%
10 15 -0.62 +13.39%
15 20 -0.62 +14.29%
20 30 -0.63 +14.97%
Raghuram Rajan magic: low inflation + falling rates = bond investor jackpot!

Investment Theme Performance

And what a momentum driven market it was. In hindsight, it was a long momentum, short high-beta market. Will momentum continue into Samvat 2072?

Equity Mutual Funds

Bond Mutual Funds

Thoughts

The only way an investor would have not made decent returns in Samvat 2071 is if one:

  1. Invested in the NIFTY ETF – Active management doesn’t work!
  2. Invested based on macro – Taper Tantrum! Will RBI cut rates tomorrow?!
  3. Invested based on financial television – Price-Volume Breakout! The pundit octa-box!
  4. Invested based on tips – Call from Indore: Aap trading karti?
  5. Invested based on emotions – Oh My God! The market is crashing! Sell! The market is shooting up! Buy!

Index Update 07.11.2015

MOMENTUM

We run our proprietary momentum scoring algorithm on indices just like we do on stocks. You can use the momentum scores of sub-indices to get a sense for which sectors have the wind on their backs and those that are facing headwinds.

Traders can pick their longs in sectors with high short-term momentum and their shorts in sectors with low momentum. Investors can use the longer lookback scores to position themselves using our re-factored index Themes.

You can see how the momentum algorithm has performed on individual stocks here.

Here are the best and the worst sub-indices:

index momentum best 365 2015-11-06 png

index momentum best 50 2015-11-06 png

index momentum worst 365 2015-11-06 png

index momentum worst 50 2015-11-06 png

Relative Strength Spread

CNX_500 relative-spread-index 50 2015-11-06 png

Refactored Index Performance

50-day performance, from August 25, 2015 through November 06, 2015:

Trend Model Summary

Index Signal % From Peak Day of Peak
CNX AUTO SHORT
10.50
2015-Jan-27
CNX BANK LONG
16.88
2015-Jan-27
CNX COMMODITIES SHORT
35.50
2008-Jan-04
CNX CONSUMPTION SHORT
6.49
2015-Aug-05
CNX ENERGY SHORT
32.00
2008-Jan-14
CNX FMCG LONG
9.17
2015-Feb-25
CNX INFRA LONG
55.66
2008-Jan-09
CNX IT SHORT
87.97
2000-Feb-21
CNX MEDIA LONG
20.59
2008-Jan-04
CNX METAL LONG
68.69
2008-Jan-04
CNX MNC SHORT
9.63
2015-Aug-10
CNX NIFTY LONG
11.58
2015-Mar-03
CNX PHARMA LONG
11.60
2015-Apr-08
CNX PSE LONG
34.06
2008-Jan-04
CNX PSU BANK LONG
42.26
2010-Nov-05
CNX REALTY LONG
90.82
2008-Jan-14
CNX SERVICE LONG
12.09
2015-Mar-03
The DRL fiasco dinged the last samurai. Will FMCG lead from hear on out?

Equity Returns at the Turn of the Month

The Turn of the Month Effect

A recent paper in the Financial Analysts Journal looks at the Turn of the Month effect on equities. Equity Returns at the Turn of the Month, John J. McConnell and Wei Xu:

The turn-of-the-month effect in U.S. equities is found to be so powerful in the 1926–2005 period that, on average, investors received no reward for bearing market risk except at turns of the month. The effect is not confined to small-capitalization or low-price stocks, to calendar year-ends or quarter ends, or to the United States: This study finds that it occurs in 31 of the 35 countries examined. Furthermore, it is not caused by month-end buying pressure as measured by trading volume or net flows to equity funds. This persistent peculiarity in returns remains a puzzle in search of an answer.

Does it apply to Indian markets?

The study skips over the Indian markets. So we did a quick test on the CNX 100 index to check if the effect holds. Here’s the cumulative return chart between a Buy-and-Hold CNX 100 strategy (B&H, black) and a Turn-of-the-Month CNX 100 strategy (TOM, red):

CNX100.TOM

Although the TOM strategy has lower-drawdowns, the B&H wins – both in terms of tax advantage and trading costs. The Turn-of-the-Month effect doesn’t seem to apply to Indian equities.