Samvat 2071: Bulls made money, Bears made money…

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world.2014-10-27.2015-11-10

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) +21.68%
CAC(FRA) +19.90%
UKX(GBR) -1.39%
NKY(JPN) +27.72%
SPX(USA) +6.16%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) -11.40%
INMEX(MEX) +0.06%
NGSEINDX(NGA) -25.16%
XU030(TUR) +2.87%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) -8.68%
SHCOMP(CHN) +58.59%
NIFTY(IND) -2.61%
INDEXCF(RUS) +25.29%
TOP40(ZAF) +10.24%

Commodities

Energy
Ethanol -15.34%
Heating Oil -40.11%
Natural Gas -34.44%
WTI Crude Oil -45.96%
Brent Crude Oil -44.91%
RBOB Gasoline -37.32%
Metals
Palladium -23.91%
Gold 100oz -11.43%
Copper -27.92%
Platinum -27.90%
Silver 5000oz -15.79%

Currencies

USDEUR:+18.07% USDJPY:+14.13%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) +12.05%
USDMXN(MEX) +23.36%
USDNGN(NGA) +20.74%
USDTRY(TUR) +30.43%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) +48.29%
USDCNY(CHN) +4.03%
USDINR(IND) +8.17%
USDRUB(RUS) +52.65%
USDZAR(ZAF) +30.19%
Agricultural
Feeder Cattle -27.98%
Lumber -23.89%
Coffee (Arabica) -39.01%
Corn -0.96%
Lean Hogs -39.92%
Soybeans -13.54%
Sugar #11 -8.29%
Cocoa +16.12%
Cotton -2.18%
Soybean Meal -22.16%
Wheat -5.69%
Cattle -24.30%
Coffee (Robusta) -21.21%
Orange Juice +8.52%
White Sugar -8.77%

International ETFs (USD)

global.etf.performance.2014-10-27.2015-11-10

Index Returns

index.performance.2014-10-27.2015-11-10

Market Cap Decile Performance

Decile Mkt. Cap. Adv/Decl
1 (micro) +29.48% 79/55
2 +42.65% 76/58
3 +11.26% 64/70
4 +19.62% 72/61
5 +15.77% 66/68
6 +18.22% 72/62
7 +13.38% 71/62
8 +15.21% 72/62
9 +11.70% 73/61
10 (mega) +5.37% 79/55
Most of the action was in the mid-and-small cap arena. Lot of dispersion, lot of good opportunities…

ETF Performance

JUNIORBEES +13.87%
BANKBEES +1.48%
NIFTYBEES -2.09%
GOLDBEES -5.69%
INFRABEES -15.20%
PSUBNKBEES -15.91%
CPSEETF -18.37%
The private sector created wealth and the public sector destroyed it.

Yield Curve

yieldCurve.2014-10-27.2015-11-10

Bond Indices

Sub Index Change in YTM Total Return(%)
0 5 -0.83 +10.59%
5 10 -0.65 +12.11%
10 15 -0.62 +13.39%
15 20 -0.62 +14.29%
20 30 -0.63 +14.97%
Raghuram Rajan magic: low inflation + falling rates = bond investor jackpot!

Investment Theme Performance

Momentum +58.79%
Financial Strength Value +50.19%
Next Trillion +24.91%
Quality to Price +16.65%
Low Volatility +15.52%
ASK Life +13.12%
Magic Formula +9.28%
Balance Sheet Strength +5.34%
Enterprise Yield +3.63%
Tactical CNX 100 +2.73%
High Beta -24.19%
ADAG stocks -26.44%
And what a momentum driven market it was. In hindsight, it was a long momentum, short high-beta market. Will momentum continue into Samvat 2072?

Equity Mutual Funds

Best
Birla Sun Life MNC Fund-Plan B (Growth) +36.08%
SBI Smal & Midcap – Regular Plan – Growth +35.54%
DSP BlackRock Micro Cap Fund – Regular – Growth +27.21%
MOSt Focused Midcap 30-Regular Plan-Growth Option +26.46%
Escorts High Yield Equity Plan – Growth Option +26.08%
UTI – MNC Fund (UGS 10000)-Growth Option +25.63%
MOSt Focused Multicap 35-Regular Plan-Growth Option +24.54%
Worst
DSP BlackRock World Energy Fund – Regular Plan – Growth -7.79%
SBI PSU Fund – REGULAR PLAN -Growth -12.66%
Sundaram Growth Fund-Growth -12.70%
Baroda Pioneer PSU Equity Fund- Plan A – Growth Option -16.55%
DSP BlackRock World Gold Fund – Regular Plan – Growth -21.32%
Mirae Asset Global Commodity Stocks – Growth Option -27.90%
DSP BlackRock World Mining Fund – Regular Plan – Growth -35.72%

Bond Mutual Funds

Best
JPMorgan India Government Securities Fund – Regular Plan – Growth Option +16.00%
SBI MAGNUM GILT FUND – LONG TERM – REGULAR PLAN – GROWTH +14.73%
BNP Paribas Government Securities Fund – Growth +14.40%
L&T Gilt Fund-Growth +14.33%
ICICI Prudential Very Cautious – Regular Plan – Growth +13.67%
UTI – GILT ADVANTAGE-LONG TERM-GROWTH +13.56%
IDFC GSF-Provident Fund-Regular Plan-Growth +13.26%
Worst
Franklin India Banking & PSU Debt Fund – Growth +8.70%
L&T Triple Ace Bond Fund-Growth Plan +8.60%
DWS Premier Bond Fund – Regular Plan-/-Growth Plan +8.27%
JM Short Term Fund..-Growth Plan +8.23%
PEERLESS FLEXIBLE INCOME FUND-GROWTH +7.73%
DWS Inflation Indexed Bond Fund- Regular Plan- Growth +2.64%
HDFC Inflation Indexed Bond Fund – Regular Growth +2.57%

Thoughts

The only way an investor would have not made decent returns in Samvat 2071 is if one:

  1. Invested in the NIFTY ETF – Active management doesn’t work!
  2. Invested based on macro – Taper Tantrum! Will RBI cut rates tomorrow?!
  3. Invested based on financial television – Price-Volume Breakout! The pundit octa-box!
  4. Invested based on tips – Call from Indore: Aap trading karti?
  5. Invested based on emotions – Oh My God! The market is crashing! Sell! The market is shooting up! Buy!

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