Category: Your Money

The Year 2015 in the Markets

world.2014-12-31.2015-12-31

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) +9.56%
CAC(FRA) +8.53%
UKX(GBR) -4.93%
NKY(JPN) +9.07%
SPX(USA) -1.54%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) -12.13%
INMEX(MEX) -1.18%
NGSEINDX(NGA) -17.36%
XU030(TUR) -17.64%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) -13.31%
SHCOMP(CHN) +9.41%
NIFTY(IND) -4.06%
INDEXCF(RUS) +26.12%
TOP40(ZAF) +4.16%

Commodities

Energy
Ethanol -13.17%
Brent Crude Oil -33.76%
Heating Oil -39.27%
Natural Gas -20.45%
RBOB Gasoline -11.49%
WTI Crude Oil -29.88%
Metals
Silver 5000oz -12.10%
Platinum -26.40%
Gold 100oz -10.86%
Copper -25.00%
Palladium -29.43%

Currencies

USDEUR:+11.51% USDJPY:+0.59%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) +11.64%
USDMXN(MEX) +17.00%
USDNGN(NGA) +8.49%
USDTRY(TUR) +24.88%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) +49.03%
USDCNY(CHN) +4.64%
USDINR(IND) +4.93%
USDRUB(RUS) +24.64%
USDZAR(ZAF) +34.63%
Agricultural
Lean Hogs -26.84%
Sugar #11 +4.32%
Cattle -18.04%
Coffee (Arabica) -25.53%
Cotton +4.21%
Lumber -21.95%
White Sugar +7.86%
Cocoa +14.74%
Corn -10.56%
Feeder Cattle -23.82%
Orange Juice -0.04%
Soybeans -14.65%
Wheat -20.25%
Coffee (Robusta) -21.25%
Soybean Meal -27.19%

Nifty Heatmap

NIFTY 50.2014-12-31.2015-12-31

Index Returns

index.performance.2014-12-31.2015-12-31

Market Cap Decile Performance

Decile Mkt. Cap. Adv/Decl
1 (micro) +83.07% 95/39
2 +64.59% 104/29
3 +40.56% 91/42
4 +31.75% 80/53
5 +28.26% 82/51
6 +27.95% 85/48
7 +14.75% 76/57
8 +19.85% 75/58
9 +5.53% 68/65
10 (mega) +0.91% 68/66
It was the year of the small-caps – vastly out-performing the NIFTY 50.

Top Winners and Losers

HINDPETRO +52.74%
IBULHSGFIN +60.20%
BRITANNIA +61.20%
BANKINDIA -61.91%
VEDL -57.86%
CANBK -48.08%
Commodities and public sector bank stocks got pummeled…

ETF Performance

JUNIORBEES +7.87%
NIFTYBEES -4.26%
GOLDBEES -7.50%
INFRABEES -9.11%
BANKBEES -10.32%
CPSEETF -14.07%
PSUBNKBEES -31.65%
Broad-based indices had very little to offer…

Yield Curve

yieldCurve.2014-12-31.2015-12-31

Bond Indices

Sub Index Change in YTM Total Return(%)
0 5 -0.50 +9.21%
5 10 -0.14 +8.78%
10 15 +0.01 +7.83%
15 20 +0.09 +7.02%
20 30 +0.13 +6.10%
On a total return basis, the long-bonds barely kept up with inflation.

Spread between US Treasuries and Indian Gilts

ust-ind-10yr-spread.2011-01-18

Investment Theme Performance

Most investment strategies came out ahead…

Equity Mutual Funds

Bond Mutual Funds

Institutional fund flows

dii-investments.2014-01-01.2015-12-31

fii-investments.2014-01-01.2015-12-31

Commentary

It was a year that saw record inflows of retail money into mutual funds and record outflow of foreign investors out of Indian markets. There were taper tantrums, Greece, GST #fail and so many worries. But the systematic and patient investor was rewarded for keeping a cool head.

Index Update 19.12.2015

MOMENTUM

We run our proprietary momentum scoring algorithm on indices just like we do on stocks. You can use the momentum scores of sub-indices to get a sense for which sectors have the wind on their backs and those that are facing headwinds.

Traders can pick their longs in sectors with high short-term momentum and their shorts in sectors with low momentum. Investors can use the longer lookback scores to position themselves using our re-factored index Themes.

You can see how the momentum algorithm has performed on individual stocks here.

Here are the best and the worst sub-indices:

index momentum best 365 2015-12-18 png

index momentum best 50 2015-12-18 png

index momentum worst 365 2015-12-18 png

index momentum worst 50 2015-12-18 png

Relative Strength Spread

NIFTY_500 relative-spread-index 50 2015-12-18 png

Refactored Index Performance

50-day performance, from October 06, 2015 through December 18, 2015:

Trend Model Summary

Index Signal % From Peak Day of Peak
NIFTY AUTO SHORT
11.21
2015-Jan-27
NIFTY BANK LONG
19.27
2015-Jan-27
NIFTY COMMODITIES SHORT
36.24
2008-Jan-04
NIFTY CONSUMPTION SHORT
5.41
2015-Aug-05
NIFTY ENERGY LONG
31.09
2008-Jan-14
NIFTY FIN SERVICE SHORT
16.66
2015-Jan-28
NIFTY FMCG SHORT
11.13
2015-Feb-25
NIFTY INFRA SHORT
57.24
2008-Jan-09
NIFTY IT SHORT
88.35
2000-Feb-21
NIFTY MEDIA LONG
15.34
2008-Jan-04
NIFTY METAL LONG
67.73
2008-Jan-04
NIFTY MNC LONG
10.02
2015-Aug-10
NIFTY PHARMA LONG
15.67
2015-Apr-08
NIFTY PSE LONG
35.76
2008-Jan-04
NIFTY PSU BANK LONG
45.99
2010-Nov-05
NIFTY REALTY LONG
91.07
2008-Jan-14
NIFTY SERV SECTOR SHORT
14.23
2015-Mar-03
Auto and Pharma – the darlings of days past.

Index Update 12.12.2015

MOMENTUM

We run our proprietary momentum scoring algorithm on indices just like we do on stocks. You can use the momentum scores of sub-indices to get a sense for which sectors have the wind on their backs and those that are facing headwinds.

Traders can pick their longs in sectors with high short-term momentum and their shorts in sectors with low momentum. Investors can use the longer lookback scores to position themselves using our re-factored index Themes.

You can see how the momentum algorithm has performed on individual stocks here.

Here are the best and the worst sub-indices:

index momentum best 365 2015-12-11 png

index momentum best 50 2015-12-11 png

index momentum worst 365 2015-12-11 png

index momentum worst 50 2015-12-11 png

Relative Strength Spread

NIFTY_500 relative-spread-index 50 2015-12-11 png

Refactored Index Performance

50-day performance, from September 28, 2015 through December 11, 2015:

Trend Model Summary

Index Signal % From Peak Day of Peak
NIFTY AUTO LONG
12.71
2015-Jan-27
NIFTY BANK LONG
20.49
2015-Jan-27
NIFTY COMMODITIES LONG
38.18
2008-Jan-04
NIFTY CONSUMPTION LONG
7.56
2015-Aug-05
NIFTY ENERGY LONG
33.38
2008-Jan-14
NIFTY FIN SERVICE LONG
18.47
2015-Jan-28
NIFTY FMCG LONG
11.98
2015-Feb-25
NIFTY INFRA LONG
58.43
2008-Jan-09
NIFTY IT SHORT
88.44
2000-Feb-21
NIFTY MEDIA SHORT
19.15
2008-Jan-04
NIFTY METAL LONG
69.06
2008-Jan-04
NIFTY MNC LONG
12.51
2015-Aug-10
NIFTY PHARMA SHORT
17.70
2015-Apr-08
NIFTY PSE LONG
37.51
2008-Jan-04
NIFTY PSU BANK LONG
46.32
2010-Nov-05
NIFTY REALTY LONG
91.37
2008-Jan-14
NIFTY SERV SECTOR LONG
16.10
2015-Mar-03
All eyes on the Fed…

Index Update 05.12.2015

MOMENTUM

We run our proprietary momentum scoring algorithm on indices just like we do on stocks. You can use the momentum scores of sub-indices to get a sense for which sectors have the wind on their backs and those that are facing headwinds.

Traders can pick their longs in sectors with high short-term momentum and their shorts in sectors with low momentum. Investors can use the longer lookback scores to position themselves using our re-factored index Themes.

You can see how the momentum algorithm has performed on individual stocks here.

Here are the best and the worst sub-indices:

index momentum best 365 2015-12-04 png

index momentum best 50 2015-12-04 png

index momentum worst 365 2015-12-04 png

index momentum worst 50 2015-12-04 png

Relative Strength Spread

NIFTY_500 relative-spread-index 50 2015-12-04 png

Refactored Index Performance

50-day performance, from September 18, 2015 through December 04, 2015:

Trend Model Summary

Index Signal % From Peak Day of Peak
NIFTY AUTO SHORT
9.44
2015-Jan-27
NIFTY BANK SHORT
17.80
2015-Jan-27
NIFTY COMMODITIES SHORT
35.95
2008-Jan-04
NIFTY CONSUMPTION SHORT
5.81
2015-Aug-05
NIFTY ENERGY SHORT
31.97
2008-Jan-14
NIFTY FIN SERVICE SHORT
16.57
2015-Jan-28
NIFTY FMCG SHORT
9.90
2015-Feb-25
NIFTY INFRA SHORT
56.92
2008-Jan-09
NIFTY IT SHORT
88.51
2000-Feb-21
NIFTY MEDIA LONG
18.62
2008-Jan-04
NIFTY METAL LONG
67.66
2008-Jan-04
NIFTY MNC SHORT
11.10
2015-Aug-10
NIFTY PHARMA SHORT
15.81
2015-Apr-08
NIFTY PSE SHORT
35.06
2008-Jan-04
NIFTY PSU BANK LONG
42.61
2010-Nov-05
NIFTY REALTY LONG
90.84
2008-Jan-14
NIFTY SERV SECTOR SHORT
14.66
2015-Mar-03
NIFTY MNC has been trailing lately. Is the trade overdone?

Monthly Recap: November Rain

world.2015-10-30.2015-11-30

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) +4.79%
CAC(FRA) +1.10%
UKX(GBR) +0.47%
NKY(JPN) +4.87%
SPX(USA) -0.55%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) +2.30%
INMEX(MEX) -2.01%
NGSEINDX(NGA) -6.51%
XU030(TUR) -4.51%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) -1.23%
SHCOMP(CHN) +2.18%
NIFTY(IND) -1.37%
INDEXCF(RUS) +3.58%
TOP40(ZAF) -4.05%

Commodities

Energy
RBOB Gasoline -5.10%
Brent Crude Oil -11.02%
Ethanol -7.28%
Heating Oil -9.08%
Natural Gas -4.35%
WTI Crude Oil -11.31%
Metals
Silver 5000oz -8.39%
Gold 100oz -6.35%
Platinum -14.84%
Palladium -18.51%
Copper -10.39%

Currencies

USDEUR:+3.75% USDJPY:+2.02%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) +0.73%
USDMXN(MEX) +0.06%
USDNGN(NGA) -0.76%
USDTRY(TUR) -0.98%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) +0.40%
USDCNY(CHN) +1.29%
USDINR(IND) +1.88%
USDRUB(RUS) +4.88%
USDZAR(ZAF) +4.55%
Agricultural
Cocoa +1.63%
Feeder Cattle -14.79%
Lean Hogs -1.22%
Orange Juice +5.55%
Sugar #11 +2.00%
Cattle -6.61%
Cotton -3.22%
Lumber -3.23%
Soybean Meal -5.11%
Wheat -11.24%
White Sugar +2.58%
Coffee (Arabica) -3.65%
Corn -3.66%
Coffee (Robusta) -7.95%
Soybeans +0.45%

Credit Indices

Index Change
Markit CDX EM +0.54%
Markit CDX NA HY -0.97%
Markit CDX NA IG +5.91%
Markit iTraxx Asia ex-Japan IG -1.93%
Markit iTraxx Australia +7.62%
Markit iTraxx Europe -0.81%
Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover -7.97%
Markit iTraxx Japan +9.43%
Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe -0.27%
Markit LCDX (Loan CDS) -0.04%
Markit MCDX (Municipal CDS) -0.50%
Most global indices ended the month in the red. The US Dollar rallied against most major currencies and the market seems to have come to terms with a December liftoff in US interest rates.

International ETFs (USD)

global.etf.performance.2015-10-30.2015-11-30

Nifty Heatmap

NIFTY 50.2015-10-30.2015-11-30

Index Returns

index.performance.2015-10-30.2015-11-30

Market Cap Decile Performance

Decile Mkt. Cap. Adv/Decl
1 (micro) +9.56% 68/67
2 +10.94% 78/56
3 +9.16% 78/56
4 +5.00% 74/60
5 +4.13% 84/50
6 +4.99% 78/56
7 +2.13% 71/63
8 +1.53% 65/69
9 +0.87% 67/67
10 (mega) -1.62% 64/71
Large caps trailed mid and small caps…

Top Winners and Losers

MOTHERSUMI +17.63%
GAIL +18.37%
PETRONET +20.69%
DRREDDY -27.39%
SUNPHARMA -17.98%
SAIL -14.34%
Biggest moves where brought about by regulatory events…

ETF Performance

PSUBNKBEES +6.77%
CPSEETF +1.19%
BANKBEES +0.34%
JUNIORBEES -0.22%
NIFTYBEES -1.87%
INFRABEES -2.50%
GOLDBEES -6.07%
PSU Banks: dead cat bounce or are government efforts finally turning things around?

Yield Curve

yieldCurve.2015-10-30.2015-11-30

Bond Indices

Sub Index Change in YTM Total Return(%)
0 5 +0.08 +0.38%
5 10 +0.13 -0.07%
10 15 +0.13 -0.28%
15 20 +0.15 -0.83%
20 30 +0.13 -0.72%
Next rate cuts are probably six months away…

Investment Theme Performance

Most investment strategies did well… November saw Quality to Price post over +250% and Momentum post over +200% gains since their inception in August 2013.

Equity Mutual Funds

Bond Mutual Funds

Institutional flows

FPIs sold off both bonds and equities…

dii-investments.2014-01-01.2015-11-30

fii-investments.2014-01-01.2015-11-30

US Yield Curve

ust-yield-curve.2011-01-18

Spread between Indian and US long bonds

ust-ind-10yr-spread.2011-01-18