The Year 2015 in the Markets

world.2014-12-31.2015-12-31

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) +9.56%
CAC(FRA) +8.53%
UKX(GBR) -4.93%
NKY(JPN) +9.07%
SPX(USA) -1.54%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) -12.13%
INMEX(MEX) -1.18%
NGSEINDX(NGA) -17.36%
XU030(TUR) -17.64%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) -13.31%
SHCOMP(CHN) +9.41%
NIFTY(IND) -4.06%
INDEXCF(RUS) +26.12%
TOP40(ZAF) +4.16%

Commodities

Energy
Ethanol -13.17%
Brent Crude Oil -33.76%
Heating Oil -39.27%
Natural Gas -20.45%
RBOB Gasoline -11.49%
WTI Crude Oil -29.88%
Metals
Silver 5000oz -12.10%
Platinum -26.40%
Gold 100oz -10.86%
Copper -25.00%
Palladium -29.43%

Currencies

USDEUR:+11.51% USDJPY:+0.59%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) +11.64%
USDMXN(MEX) +17.00%
USDNGN(NGA) +8.49%
USDTRY(TUR) +24.88%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) +49.03%
USDCNY(CHN) +4.64%
USDINR(IND) +4.93%
USDRUB(RUS) +24.64%
USDZAR(ZAF) +34.63%
Agricultural
Lean Hogs -26.84%
Sugar #11 +4.32%
Cattle -18.04%
Coffee (Arabica) -25.53%
Cotton +4.21%
Lumber -21.95%
White Sugar +7.86%
Cocoa +14.74%
Corn -10.56%
Feeder Cattle -23.82%
Orange Juice -0.04%
Soybeans -14.65%
Wheat -20.25%
Coffee (Robusta) -21.25%
Soybean Meal -27.19%

Nifty Heatmap

NIFTY 50.2014-12-31.2015-12-31

Index Returns

index.performance.2014-12-31.2015-12-31

Market Cap Decile Performance

Decile Mkt. Cap. Adv/Decl
1 (micro) +83.07% 95/39
2 +64.59% 104/29
3 +40.56% 91/42
4 +31.75% 80/53
5 +28.26% 82/51
6 +27.95% 85/48
7 +14.75% 76/57
8 +19.85% 75/58
9 +5.53% 68/65
10 (mega) +0.91% 68/66
It was the year of the small-caps – vastly out-performing the NIFTY 50.

Top Winners and Losers

HINDPETRO +52.74%
IBULHSGFIN +60.20%
BRITANNIA +61.20%
BANKINDIA -61.91%
VEDL -57.86%
CANBK -48.08%
Commodities and public sector bank stocks got pummeled…

ETF Performance

JUNIORBEES +7.87%
NIFTYBEES -4.26%
GOLDBEES -7.50%
INFRABEES -9.11%
BANKBEES -10.32%
CPSEETF -14.07%
PSUBNKBEES -31.65%
Broad-based indices had very little to offer…

Yield Curve

yieldCurve.2014-12-31.2015-12-31

Bond Indices

Sub Index Change in YTM Total Return(%)
0 5 -0.50 +9.21%
5 10 -0.14 +8.78%
10 15 +0.01 +7.83%
15 20 +0.09 +7.02%
20 30 +0.13 +6.10%
On a total return basis, the long-bonds barely kept up with inflation.

Spread between US Treasuries and Indian Gilts

ust-ind-10yr-spread.2011-01-18

Investment Theme Performance

Most investment strategies came out ahead…

Equity Mutual Funds

Bond Mutual Funds

Institutional fund flows

dii-investments.2014-01-01.2015-12-31

fii-investments.2014-01-01.2015-12-31

Commentary

It was a year that saw record inflows of retail money into mutual funds and record outflow of foreign investors out of Indian markets. There were taper tantrums, Greece, GST #fail and so many worries. But the systematic and patient investor was rewarded for keeping a cool head.

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