Author: shyam

Weekly Recap: Satisficers vs. Maximizers

world.2015-05-29.2015-06-05

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) -1.90%
CAC(FRA) -1.74%
UKX(GBR) -2.57%
NKY(JPN) -0.50%
SPX(USA) -0.92%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) -2.22%
INMEX(MEX) -0.47%
NGSEINDX(NGA) -1.88%
XU030(TUR) -0.74%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) -0.84%
SHCOMP(CHN) +8.92%
NIFTY(IND) -3.78%
INDEXCF(RUS) +2.66%
TOP40(ZAF) -0.63%

Commodities

Energy
RBOB Gasoline -3.14%
Brent Crude Oil -3.70%
Ethanol +0.45%
Heating Oil -4.31%
Natural Gas -1.63%
WTI Crude Oil -2.76%
Metals
Copper -1.09%
Gold 100oz -1.74%
Palladium -3.29%
Silver 5000oz -3.59%
Platinum -1.44%

Currencies

USDEUR:-1.13% USDJPY:+1.34%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) +0.50%
USDMXN(MEX) +2.09%
USDNGN(NGA) -0.17%
USDTRY(TUR) -0.06%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) -1.37%
USDCNY(CHN) +0.09%
USDINR(IND) -0.11%
USDRUB(RUS) +7.20%
USDZAR(ZAF) +3.61%
Agricultural
Cattle +0.36%
Cocoa -0.05%
Coffee (Arabica) +6.25%
Coffee (Robusta) +5.63%
Corn +2.49%
Cotton -0.31%
Orange Juice +2.32%
Soybean Meal -0.36%
Soybeans +0.59%
Wheat +8.48%
White Sugar +0.26%
Feeder Cattle -0.40%
Lean Hogs -2.47%
Lumber +6.70%
Sugar #11 +0.58%

Credit Indices

Index Change
Markit CDX EM -0.43%
Markit CDX NA HY -0.19%
Markit CDX NA IG +1.22%
Markit iTraxx Asia ex-Japan IG +0.08%
Markit iTraxx Australia -0.48%
Markit iTraxx Europe +1.11%
Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover +9.04%
Markit iTraxx Japan +2.79%
Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe -0.09%
Markit LCDX (Loan CDS) -0.02%
Markit MCDX (Municipal CDS) -1.87%

Nifty Heatmap

CNX NIFTY.2015-05-29.2015-06-05

Index Returns

For a deeper dive into indices, check out our weekly Index Update.
index performance.2015-05-29.2015-06-05

Sector Performance

sector performance.2015-05-29.2015-06-05

Advance Decline

advance.decline.line2.2015-05-29.2015-06-05

Market Cap Decile Performance

Decile Mkt. Cap. Adv/Decl
1 (micro) -6.46% 61/68
2 -4.39% 51/78
3 -7.87% 53/76
4 -5.49% 48/81
5 -3.90% 56/73
6 -5.88% 54/75
7 -3.66% 58/71
8 -3.13% 53/76
9 -3.46% 60/69
10 (mega) -2.78% 63/66
Looks like a page out of the pulp-fiction novel: “Blood Bath and Beyond…”

Top Winners and Losers

ZEEL +3.97%
BRITANNIA +6.47%
GODREJCP +6.79%
RPOWER -15.33%
SUNPHARMA -12.23%
RCOM -11.83%
Markets found some solace in biscuits and shampoo…

ETF Performance

INFRABEES +0.14%
GOLDBEES -0.63%
CPSEETF -2.14%
JUNIORBEES -2.45%
NIFTYBEES -3.27%
BANKBEES -6.22%
PSUBNKBEES -7.48%
Banks went from boost to woost…

Yield Curve

yield Curve.2015-05-29.2015-06-05

Bond Indices

Sub Index Change in YTM Total Return(%)
GSEC TB +0.33 +0.06%
GSEC SUB 1-3 +0.37 -0.38%
GSEC SUB 3-8 +0.20 -0.95%
GSEC SUB 8 -0.06 +0.40%
This is totally mind-blasting: yields went up on a week when rates were cut.

Investment Theme Performance

Equity Mutual Funds

Bond Mutual Funds

Thought for the weekend

Psychology professor Barry Schwartz, author of The Paradox of Choice, divided us into two types of people: “satisficers” (those who satisfy and then suffice) and “maximizers,” who seek out the best.

Thanks to smartphones and the Internet, our options are unlimited, whether it’s a retail item or a romantic possibility. We have all become maximizers.

While we may think we know what we want, we’re often wrong.

Source: Modern Romance

The Problem with Balanced Funds

Returns vs. Volatility

Balanced funds are those that invest in both stocks and bonds. The exact allocation is up to the fund manager. For example, the Tata Balanced fund is right now 22.85% in bonds and the rest in equities, according to Morningstar.

tata balanced asset allocation

Balanced funds are pitched as having lesser risk than equity-only funds. But what investors gain in lesser volatility, they give up on lower returns and higher fees.

Tata Balanced vs. ICICI Pru. Value Discovery

Between 2007-01-02 and 2015-06-02, Tata Balanced Fund has returned a cumulative 235.97% with an IRR of 15.48% vs. ICICI Prudential Value Discovery Fund’s cumulative return of 316.55% and an IRR of 18.47%download

Compare the drawdowns:

drawdowns tatas vs icici

For the moderate-risk taking investor who is typically attracted to balanced funds, a 16% drawdown hurts just as much as a 27% drawdown.

When it comes to fees, Tata’s has an expense ratio of 2.91% vs. ICICI’s 2.34%. Is the extra 50bps worth the safety offered?

HDFC Balanced Fund vs. ICICI Pru. Value Discovery

It is a similar deal with HDFC’s Balanced fund as well: lower returns (IRR: 15.24%) and no escape from double-digit drawdownsdownload

Conclusion

The sales-pitch for balanced funds focus on the investors availability heuristic where people tend to heavily weigh their judgments toward more recent information, making new opinions biased toward that latest news. Ever since the market corrected in March a growing flock of blogs and articles started pitching balanced funds. But before you fall for the marketing pitch, take a step back and ensure that you are not giving too much away for perceived safety.

The Walter Mitty Effect

Walter Mitty is a fictional character in James Thurber’s short story “The Secret Life of Walter Mitty.” Mitty is a meek, mild man totally intimidated by his overbearing wife. He deals with it by daydreaming that he is transformed into a courageous hero.

Investors are a bit like Walter Mitty, says social psychologist Dean G. Pruitt. When the market is doing well, they become brave in their own eyes and eagerly accept more risk. But when the market goes down, they rush for the door. So when you ask an investor directly to explain their risk tolerance, the answer comes from either a fearless bomber pilot (in a bull market) or a henpecked husband (in a bear market).

Source: http://pruitt.socialpsychology.org/

Macro Update: Mayhem 2015

US TREASURIES VS. GILT SPREAD

The spread between 10yr US Treasuries and Indian Gilts remained within a tight range this month.

ust-ind-10yr-spread.2011-01-18

Long-term US bond yields leapt higher in May…

ust-yield-curve.2011-01-18

… and the spread was kept in check by Indian gilts moving in tandem.

INSTITUTIONAL INVESTMENTS

FPIs took an asston of money out of Indian markets because of regressive and retrograde tax demands. Huge outflows both in equity and bond markets.

fii-investments.2014-01-01.2015-05-30

Domestic institutional investors tried to keep up but were helpless under the onslaught.

dii-investments.2014-01-01.2015-05-30

Lets zoom into what happened on a daily basis to get sense for how badly we shot ourselves on our foot:

fii-investments-monthly.2015-05-01.2015-05-30

dii-investments-monthly.2015-05-01.2015-05-30

DIIs pushed the buy button near the end of the month – after the FIIs had finished scaring the bejeebers out of the market.

Oil

Oil futures in Nymex seem to have trailed off for now.

wti-brent.2011-01-18

Gold

Gold seems to be headed lower. As rate hikes get factored in, expect precious metals to drop more in USD terms.

gold.usd

And it seems to have trailed off in INR terms after an early spurt in May.

Copper

Copper is supposed to be a bellwether for global manufacturing and that seems to be back at Dec’14 levels.

copper.usd

USDINR

The rupee continued to depreciate against the US dollar in May.

USDINR

The Dollar Index (DXY) did a nice about turn.

Outlook

Here are some of the headlines this month from FT:

And while all this was being said and read, the Nifty went up 3% and our Momentum strategy was up 6% in May. (Monthly Recap) I am sure there is a lesson in market timing in there somewhere.

In terms of positioning your portfolio, the dollar is probably going to head higher since US rates are going to go up and Indian rates are going to go down. Oil usually goes in the opposite direction of the dollar. Gold in USD terms is probably going to head lower as rates normalize.

Monthly Recap: Don’t Follow Your Passion

world.2015-04-30.2015-05-29

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) -0.35%
CAC(FRA) -0.76%
UKX(GBR) +0.34%
NKY(JPN) +5.69%
SPX(USA) +1.05%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) +2.55%
INMEX(MEX) +0.49%
NGSEINDX(NGA) -1.15%
XU030(TUR) -1.35%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) -6.17%
SHCOMP(CHN) +3.83%
NIFTY(IND) +3.08%
INDEXCF(RUS) -4.69%
TOP40(ZAF) -3.96%

Commodities

Energy
Natural Gas -2.94%
Brent Crude Oil -1.50%
Heating Oil -1.61%
WTI Crude Oil +1.09%
Ethanol -4.82%
RBOB Gasoline +0.90%
Metals
Gold 100oz +0.67%
Palladium -0.28%
Platinum -2.68%
Copper -4.50%
Silver 5000oz +3.73%

Currencies

USDEUR:+2.00% USDJPY:+3.80%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) +1.94%
USDMXN(MEX) +0.12%
USDNGN(NGA) -0.13%
USDTRY(TUR) -0.46%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) +5.45%
USDCNY(CHN) -0.09%
USDINR(IND) +0.63%
USDRUB(RUS) +1.47%
USDZAR(ZAF) +2.06%
Agricultural
Cattle -4.39%
Cocoa +5.87%
Coffee (Arabica) -7.84%
Coffee (Robusta) -6.74%
Sugar #11 -8.74%
Wheat +1.92%
Feeder Cattle +2.52%
Lean Hogs +9.14%
Lumber +7.22%
Orange Juice +1.92%
White Sugar -7.19%
Corn -2.83%
Cotton -5.45%
Soybean Meal -4.16%
Soybeans -4.69%

Credit Indices

Index Change
Markit CDX EM +0.52%
Markit CDX NA HY -0.09%
Markit CDX NA IG +0.14%
Markit iTraxx Asia ex-Japan IG +0.03%
Markit iTraxx Australia +2.12%
Markit iTraxx Europe +0.71%
Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover +2.06%
Markit iTraxx Japan +2.85%
Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe -1.04%
Markit LCDX (Loan CDS) -0.05%
Markit MCDX (Municipal CDS) +4.83%
The US Dollar rallied, Nifty put in a decent show and gold flat lined.

Nifty Heatmap

CNX NIFTY.2015-04-30.2015-05-29

Index Returns

index performance.2015-04-30.2015-05-29

Sector Performance

sector performance.2015-04-30.2015-05-29

Advance Decline

advance.decline.line2.2015-04-30.2015-05-29

Market Cap Decile Performance

Decile Mkt. Cap. Adv/Decl
1 (micro) -2.14% 64/65
2 -0.23% 64/64
3 -0.66% 60/68
4 +3.15% 68/60
5 -0.13% 61/67
6 -0.16% 66/62
7 -0.04% 61/67
8 +1.24% 67/61
9 +0.23% 58/70
10 (mega) +2.38% 70/59
Large and mid-caps turned in a good show…

Top Winners and Losers

INFRATEL +19.32%
UNIONBANK +20.58%
EICHERMOT +24.39%
SRTRANSFIN -15.08%
TECHM -10.77%
EXIDEIND -10.41%
Bullet the blue sky…

ETF Performance

CPSEETF +6.50%
NIFTYBEES +2.88%
JUNIORBEES +2.85%
PSUBNKBEES +2.11%
BANKBEES +1.66%
INFRABEES +1.42%
GOLDBEES -0.98%
Interesting to see Nifty out-performing private banks…

Yield Curve

yield Curve.2015-04-30.2015-05-29

Bond Indices

Sub Index Change in YTM Total Return(%)
GSEC TB +0.24 +0.56%
GSEC SUB 1-3 +0.53 +0.31%
GSEC SUB 3-8 -0.05 -0.27%
GSEC SUB 8 +0.09 -0.05%
Indian gilts were not immune to the global dislocations in the bond market…

Investment Theme Performance

Equity Mutual Funds

Bond Mutual Funds

Thought to sum up the month