Category: Your Money

Weekly Recap: Investing vs Flipping

world.2015-10-01.2015-10-09

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) +6.18%
CAC(FRA) +6.21%
UKX(GBR) +5.66%
NKY(JPN) +4.36%
SPX(USA) +4.73%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) +8.65%
INMEX(MEX) +4.12%
NGSEINDX(NGA) -3.37%
XU030(TUR) +6.45%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) +8.88%
SHCOMP(CHN) +4.27%
NIFTY(IND) +3.00%
INDEXCF(RUS) +6.24%
TOP40(ZAF) +5.65%

Commodities

Energy
Brent Crude Oil +9.37%
Natural Gas +4.09%
Heating Oil +3.53%
Ethanol -2.34%
RBOB Gasoline +3.14%
WTI Crude Oil +9.25%
Metals
Copper +4.76%
Silver 5000oz +8.97%
Palladium +5.16%
Platinum +8.59%
Gold 100oz +3.85%

Currencies

USDEUR:-1.48% USDJPY:+0.20%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) -8.85%
USDMXN(MEX) -2.69%
USDNGN(NGA) +0.43%
USDTRY(TUR) -3.89%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) -6.14%
USDCNY(CHN) -0.19%
USDINR(IND) -1.19%
USDRUB(RUS) -6.23%
USDZAR(ZAF) -4.16%
Agricultural
Cocoa -2.16%
Coffee (Robusta) +3.98%
Cotton +3.77%
Sugar #11 +7.09%
Lean Hogs +1.75%
Lumber +8.36%
Orange Juice +10.30%
Soybean Meal +1.05%
White Sugar +3.09%
Coffee (Arabica) +7.78%
Feeder Cattle +6.87%
Wheat -2.17%
Cattle +8.30%
Corn -1.86%
Soybeans +0.83%

Credit Indices

Index Change
Markit CDX EM +1.73%
Markit CDX NA HY +2.03%
Markit CDX NA IG -9.85%
Markit iTraxx Asia ex-Japan IG -18.19%
Markit iTraxx Australia -11.71%
Markit iTraxx Europe -7.10%
Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover -37.22%
Markit iTraxx Japan -8.18%
Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe -2.20%
Markit LCDX (Loan CDS) +0.00%
Markit MCDX (Municipal CDS) -6.68%
Not even the Fed knows when it is going to raise rates but that did not prevent the markets to party like its 1999.

Global ETFs (USD)

global.etf.performance.2015-10-01.2015-10-09

Nifty Heatmap

CNX NIFTY.2015-10-01.2015-10-09

Index Returns

For a deeper dive into indices, check out our weekly Index Update.
index.performance.2015-10-01.2015-10-09

Market Cap Decile Performance

Decile Mkt. Cap. Adv/Decl
1 (micro) +4.84% 74/57
2 +7.45% 83/47
3 +4.50% 76/54
4 +6.77% 74/56
5 +5.63% 74/56
6 +5.99% 71/60
7 +4.23% 71/59
8 +3.29% 74/56
9 +1.77% 66/64
10 (mega) +1.89% 65/66
Green is the color of passion…

Top Winners and Losers

HINDALCO +18.41%
TATAMOTORS +19.71%
VEDL +24.22%
MARUTI -6.64%
IBULHSGFIN -6.62%
RECLTD -3.99%
Have metals finally found a bottom?

ETF Performance

CPSEETF +5.23%
PSUBNKBEES +4.51%
INFRABEES +2.98%
NIFTYBEES +2.86%
BANKBEES +2.65%
GOLDBEES +1.96%
JUNIORBEES +1.59%
Gold finally found some takers…

Yield Curve

yieldCurve.2015-10-01.2015-10-09

Bond Indices

Sub Index Change in YTM Total Return(%)
0 5 -0.02 +0.22%
5 10 -0.04 +0.37%
10 15 -0.04 +0.47%
15 20 -0.03 +0.45%
20 30 -0.04 +0.59%
Bonds continued their rate-cut rally. Plus, FPIs can now buy more.

Investment Theme Performance

Momentum came back with a bang! Pretty much every investment strategy ended this week in the green…

Equity Mutual Funds

Bond Mutual Funds

Thought for the weekend

  1. High stock prices, just like high house prices, are harbingers of low returns.
  2. Investing in price-depressed residential rental property in Atlanta is like investing in EM equities today—the future expected long-term yield is much superior to their respective high-priced alternatives.
  3. Many parallels exist between the political/economic environment and the relative valuation of U.S. and EM equities in the periods from 1994 to 2002 and 2008 to 2015.
  4. Our forecast of the 10-year real return for U.S. equities is 1% compared to that of EM equities at 8%, now valued at less than half the U.S. CAPE.

Source: Investing versus Flipping

Index Update 10.10.2015

MOMENTUM

We run our proprietary momentum scoring algorithm on indices just like we do on stocks. You can use the momentum scores of sub-indices to get a sense for which sectors have the wind on their backs and those that are facing headwinds.

Traders can pick their longs in sectors with high short-term momentum and their shorts in sectors with low momentum. Investors can use the longer lookback scores to position themselves using our re-factored index Themes.

You can see how the momentum algorithm has performed on individual stocks here.

Here are the best and the worst sub-indices:

index momentum best 365 2015-10-09 png

index momentum best 50 2015-10-09 png

index momentum worst 365 2015-10-09 png

index momentum worst 50 2015-10-09 png

Relative Strength Spread

CNX_500 relative-spread-index 50 2015-10-09 png

Refactored Index Performance

50-day performance, from July 29, 2015 through October 09, 2015:

Trend Model Summary

Index Signal % From Peak Day of Peak
CNX AUTO LONG
11.52
2015-Jan-27
CNX BANK LONG
14.42
2015-Jan-27
CNX COMMODITIES LONG
35.32
2008-Jan-04
CNX CONSUMPTION LONG
5.71
2015-Aug-05
CNX ENERGY LONG
33.93
2008-Jan-14
CNX FMCG LONG
7.96
2015-Feb-25
CNX INFRA LONG
53.04
2008-Jan-09
CNX IT SHORT
87.64
2000-Feb-21
CNX MEDIA LONG
18.06
2008-Jan-04
CNX METAL LONG
66.60
2008-Jan-04
CNX MNC SHORT
9.28
2015-Aug-10
CNX NIFTY LONG
8.97
2015-Mar-03
CNX PHARMA LONG
4.00
2015-Apr-08
CNX PSE LONG
33.36
2008-Jan-04
CNX PSU BANK SHORT
40.81
2010-Nov-05
CNX REALTY LONG
90.30
2008-Jan-14
CNX SERVICE LONG
9.02
2015-Mar-03
And just like that, momentum is back!

Correlation Update 10.10.2015

Nifty one year daily return correlations

Nifty one year daily return correlations

Nifty one month daily return correlations

Nifty one month daily return correlations

Bank Nifty one year daily return correlations

Bank Nifty one year daily return correlations

Bank Nifty one month daily return correlations

Bank Nifty one month daily return correlations

Midcap one year daily return correlations

Midcap one year daily return correlations

Midcap one month daily return correlations

Midcap one month daily return correlations

A lot of thick blue squares mean that positive correlations are high. Red squares mean negative correlations are high. Whites are the doldrums.

INDA vs. SPY Observed Volatility

The iShares MSCI India ETF (INDA) tracks the MSCI India Total Return Index, representing about 85% of the Indian stock market. As a follow up to our earlier post on the historical volatility of the NIFTY historical NIFTY volatility, we thought we’ll compare the volatilities of INDA and SPY, the S&P 500 ETF.

10-day volatility:
INDA.SPY.volatility.density.10

50-day volatility:
INDA.SPY.volatility.density.50

As expected, a dollar denominated emerging market ETF is more volatile than the S&P. File this away in your brain attic.

NIFTY Volatility, Historical Perspective

Was 2014 an anomaly?

Here’s a density plot of NIFTY volatility across 10-, 20-, 30-, and 50-day periods:

NIFTY.volatility.density.2014

And here’s how it was in 2004 (10-years ago):

NIFTY.volatility.density.2004

For those of who argue that the introduction of the pre-open auction call in 2010Gaps and the Pre-Open Call Auction skews these results, here’s how 2011 looked like:

NIFTY.volatility.density.2011

The unprecedented absence of a second “hump” in the volatility density plot for 2014 should give pause to investors looking for a repeat of 2014 anytime soon.

Reversion to higher volatility?

If you look at the 50-day volatility over different time-periods, you can observe how volatile volatility is:

NIFTY.volatility.density.50

This year’s observed volatility is closer to last-year’s than to its long-term mean. Here’s how 2015 has panned out so far:

NIFTY.volatility.density.2015

We should expect higher volatility as the initial bull-run wears off and volatility reverts. This will have a ripple effect on pretty much every investment/trading strategy.

Appendix

Year-wise NIFTY volatility density plots (pdf)