Tag: weekly

Weekly Recap: What Causes Recessions?

world.2015-04-1.2015-04-10

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) +3.11%
CAC(FRA) +3.52%
UKX(GBR) +4.12%
NKY(JPN) +4.59%
SPX(USA) +2.24%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) +0.45%
INMEX(MEX) +2.01%
NGSEINDX(NGA) +1.57%
XU030(TUR) +1.23%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) +3.42%
SHCOMP(CHN) +5.88%
NIFTY(IND) +2.26%
INDEXCF(RUS) -0.29%
TOP40(ZAF) +2.18%

Commodities

Energy
Heating Oil +1.02%
Brent Crude Oil +1.01%
Ethanol +1.03%
Natural Gas -4.35%
RBOB Gasoline -1.32%
WTI Crude Oil +3.27%
Metals
Silver 5000oz -1.20%
Palladium +3.72%
Platinum +0.60%
Copper -0.36%
Gold 100oz +0.17%

Currencies

USDEUR:+1.61% USDJPY:+0.50%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) -0.93%
USDMXN(MEX) +0.66%
USDNGN(NGA) +0.01%
USDTRY(TUR) +1.17%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) -3.03%
USDCNY(CHN) +0.17%
USDINR(IND) -0.28%
USDRUB(RUS) -6.78%
USDZAR(ZAF) +0.07%
Agricultural
Sugar #11 +4.55%
Coffee (Arabica) +1.08%
Coffee (Robusta) +6.95%
Corn -1.18%
Feeder Cattle -3.00%
White Sugar +2.18%
Cotton +3.65%
Lean Hogs -0.53%
Lumber -2.52%
Orange Juice -9.96%
Soybean Meal -6.64%
Soybeans -3.82%
Cattle -1.88%
Cocoa +0.99%
Wheat -0.57%

Credit Indices

Index Change
Markit CDX EM +1.47%
Markit CDX NA HY +0.49%
Markit CDX NA IG -3.14%
Markit iTraxx Asia ex-Japan IG -4.97%
Markit iTraxx Australia -4.50%
Markit iTraxx Europe -0.71%
Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover -11.21%
Markit iTraxx Japan -1.42%
Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe -0.56%
Markit LCDX (Loan CDS) -0.09%
Markit MCDX (Municipal CDS) -0.14%
It was a good week for the equity markets. Ruble strength came as a surprise and credit gauges were bullish.

Nifty Heatmap

CNX NIFTY.2015-04-1.2015-04-10

Index Returns

index performance.2015-04-1.2015-04-10

Sector Performance

sector performance.2015-04-1.2015-04-10

Advance Decline

advance.decline.line2.2015-04-1.2015-04-10

Market Cap Decile Performance

Decile Mkt. Cap. Adv/Decl
1 (micro) +10.90% 78/53
2 +11.87% 85/46
3 +12.22% 86/45
4 +11.65% 83/47
5 +9.90% 86/45
6 +8.36% 79/52
7 +8.67% 78/52
8 +5.18% 73/58
9 +4.27% 70/61
10 (mega) +3.25% 71/60
A broad-based rally saw mid- and small-caps out-perform the large-caps.

Top Winners and Losers

GODREJCP +10.90%
UBL +14.68%
RCOM +18.53%
LUPIN -3.60%
HDFC -3.49%
FEDERALBNK -3.38%
Rally in RCOM seems a bit premature…

ETF Performance

JUNIORBEES +4.48%
CPSEETF +3.62%
PSUBNKBEES +3.57%
NIFTYBEES +2.22%
BANKBEES +1.07%
INFRABEES +1.07%
GOLDBEES +0.83%
Green across the board, but gold under-performed equities…

Gold vs. Midcaps

You can send this to your mother-in-law. (http://svz.bz/1CCWifr)

Yield Curve

yield Curve.2015-03-31.2015-04-10

Bond Indices

Sub Index Change in YTM Total Return(%)
GSEC TB +0.01 +0.21%
GSEC SUB 1-3 +0.14 +0.19%
GSEC SUB 3-8 +0.09 -0.00%
GSEC SUB 8 +0.11 -0.48%
Rates went up a smidgen. One would think that with the Moody’s change in outlook to “Positive”, we would have seen a rally in bonds…

Investment Theme Performance

Equity Mutual Funds

Bond Mutual Funds

Thought for the weekend

The market adjusts by the price mechanism. If the cost of something goes up, the price goes up to match. If demand falls, the price drops until the market clears. But prices themselves can’t adjust in response to events. This phenomenon is called “sticky prices.”

When prices are even a little sticky, bursts of technological progress actually hurt the economy for a short while, by causing a burst of deflation, before eventually boosting growth.

Source: How sticky prices might be the cause of recessions

Index Update 11.04.2015

MOMENTUM

We run our proprietary momentum scoring algorithm on indices just like we do on stocks. You can use the momentum scores of sub-indices to get a sense for which sectors have the wind on their backs and those that are facing headwinds.

Traders can pick their longs in sectors with high short-term momentum and their shorts in sectors with low momentum. Investors can use the longer lookback scores to position themselves using our re-factored index Themes.

You can see how the momentum algorithm has performed on individual stocks here.

Here are the best and the worst sub-indices:

index momentum best 365 2015-04-10 png

index momentum best 50 2015-04-10 png

index momentum worst 365 2015-04-10 png

index momentum worst 50 2015-04-10 png

Refactored Index Performance

50-day performance, from January 28, 2015 through April 10, 2015:

Correlation Update 11.04.2015

Nifty one year daily return correlations

Nifty one year daily return correlations

Nifty one month daily return correlations

Nifty one month daily return correlations

Bank Nifty one year daily return correlations

Bank Nifty one year daily return correlations

Bank Nifty one month daily return correlations

Bank Nifty one month daily return correlations

Midcap one year daily return correlations

Midcap one year daily return correlations

Midcap one month daily return correlations

Midcap one month daily return correlations

A lot of thick blue squares mean that positive correlations are high. Red squares mean negative correlations are high. Whites are the doldrums.

Weekly Recap: Experience vs. Memory

world.2015-03-20.2015-03-27

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) -1.42%
CAC(FRA) -1.05%
UKX(GBR) -2.39%
NKY(JPN) -1.40%
SPX(USA) -2.43%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) -0.85%
INMEX(MEX) -1.38%
NGSEINDX(NGA) +4.19%
XU030(TUR) -2.11%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) -3.75%
SHCOMP(CHN) +2.04%
NIFTY(IND) -2.68%
INDEXCF(RUS) -3.51%
TOP40(ZAF) -1.96%

Commodities

Energy
Ethanol +0.20%
WTI Crude Oil +5.63%
Brent Crude Oil +2.21%
Natural Gas -4.59%
Heating Oil -0.01%
RBOB Gasoline +0.28%
Metals
Copper -0.36%
Gold 100oz +1.09%
Silver 5000oz +1.19%
Palladium -5.09%
Platinum +0.08%

Currencies

USDEUR:-0.58% USDJPY:-0.86%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) -0.45%
USDMXN(MEX) +1.29%
USDNGN(NGA) -0.10%
USDTRY(TUR) +1.33%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) +0.48%
USDCNY(CHN) +0.18%
USDINR(IND) -0.08%
USDRUB(RUS) -2.49%
USDZAR(ZAF) +0.06%
Agricultural
Cattle +2.56%
Corn +1.36%
Feeder Cattle +1.78%
Wheat -4.05%
Cotton +0.92%
Soybeans -0.46%
Sugar #11 -4.65%
White Sugar -1.91%
Coffee (Arabica) -3.53%
Coffee (Robusta) -0.66%
Lumber +0.28%
Soybean Meal -0.68%
Cocoa -1.29%
Lean Hogs +4.79%
Orange Juice +10.93%

Credit Indices

Index Change
Markit CDX EM +0.62%
Markit CDX NA HY +0.09%
Markit CDX NA IG +0.79%
Markit iTraxx Asia ex-Japan IG -1.54%
Markit iTraxx Australia -0.45%
Markit iTraxx Europe -1.36%
Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover -1.06%
Markit iTraxx Japan -1.24%
Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe -0.42%
Markit LCDX (Loan CDS) +0.00%
Markit MCDX (Municipal CDS) +1.48%
It was a sea of red ink in the markets this week. Oil gyrated and the US Dollar ended mixed.

Nifty Heatmap

CNX NIFTY.2015-03-20.2015-03-27

Index Returns

index performance.2015-03-20.2015-03-27

Sector Performance

sector performance.2015-03-20.2015-03-27

Advance Decline

advance.decline.line2.2015-03-20.2015-03-27

Market Cap Decile Performance

Decile Mkt. Cap. Adv/Decl
1 (micro) -12.20% 58/76
2 -8.87% 52/81
3 -7.74% 50/83
4 -7.73% 52/81
5 -6.92% 54/79
6 -6.81% 57/77
7 -5.57% 47/86
8 -5.34% 56/77
9 -3.95% 62/71
10 (mega) -3.40% 68/66
Stocks across the board got shellacked…

Top Winners and Losers

BPCL +3.10%
AUROPHARMA +3.97%
UPL +4.30%
PNB -9.89%
SRTRANSFIN -9.15%
BOSCHLTD -7.88%
Momentum names were hurt the most…

ETF Performance

GOLDBEES +1.61%
INFRABEES -1.04%
CPSEETF -2.44%
NIFTYBEES -2.71%
BANKBEES -3.15%
JUNIORBEES -3.24%
PSUBNKBEES -5.50%
PSU banks are yet to fully acknowledge the full extent of NPAs. Also, who is going to fill the holes in their balance-sheets?

Yield Curve

yield Curve.2015-03-20.2015-03-27

Bond Indices

Sub Index Change in YTM Total Return(%)
GSEC TB +0.35 +0.03%
GSEC SUB 1-3 +0.38 -0.33%
GSEC SUB 3-8 +0.12 -0.80%
GSEC SUB 8 +0.04 -0.54%
The long end of the curve came under a bit of pressure…

Investment Theme Performance

Equity Mutual Funds

Bond Mutual Funds

Thought to sum up the week

Our “experiencing selves” and our “remembering selves” perceive facts differently.

Index Update 28.03.2015

MOMENTUM

We run our proprietary momentum scoring algorithm on indices just like we do on stocks. You can use the momentum scores of sub-indices to get a sense for which sectors have the wind on their backs and those that are facing headwinds.

Traders can pick their longs in sectors with high short-term momentum and their shorts in sectors with low momentum. Investors can use the longer lookback scores to position themselves using our re-factored index Themes.

You can see how the momentum algorithm has performed on individual stocks here.

Here are the best and the worst sub-indices:

index momentum best 365 2015-03-27 png

index momentum best 50 2015-03-27 png

index momentum worst 365 2015-03-27 png

index momentum worst 50 2015-03-27 png

Refactored Index Performance

50-day performance, from January 15, 2015 through March 27, 2015: