Tag: technical analysis

Analysis: BHARTIARTL

Today’s pick is BHARTIARTL [stockquote]BHARTIARTL[/stockquote]. The stock started the year with a down-trend, that lasted until September, where it got support at Rs. 250 levels. Since then it has been on an uptrend and it saw a 52 week high of Rs. 370 in mid-January. In the last three months, the stock has moved +20% vs. +4% of the Nifty’s.

BHARTIARTL technical analyis chart

Oscillator RSI and CMO are nearing the over-sold territory. The stock is trading close to the lower end of Bollinger band giving an upward bias. Short-term technical just saw a 18×9 bearish cross-over.

The MACD line and the signal line are moving away from each other and suggest the short –term downtrend to continue. Also, both long-term and short-term GMMA lines are very close to each other not giving any long-term direction to the stock.

BHARTIARTL correlation chart

BHARTIARTL’s average correlation with the Nifty is 0.49 which is positive. The scrip will be replicating movement of Nifty. [stockquote]NIFTYBEES[/stockquote]

BHARTIARTL volatility chart

BHARTIARTL has a historical volatility in the range of 0.4 to 0.7. The scrip’s volatility is currently in the middle of the range.

Given these technicals, we suggest a short-term sell. For the long-term, we will have to wait and watch how the GMMA lines unravel themselves and a bullish call can be made if it holds the current trendline. However, we suggest having trailing stop-losses in case sudden trend-reversal were to take place.

Read what experts have to say about the Indian telecom sector here.

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Analysis: NTPC

Today’s pick is NTPC [stockquote]NTPC[/stockquote]. The stock started the year with a surge to Rs. 190 levels, and soon lost its mojo to drop down to Rs. 140 levels by mid of May. Since then the stock has been on an uptrend with some correction on the way. In the last three months, the stock has moved -9% vs. +4% of the Nifty’s.

NTPC technical analysis chart

Oscillator RSI and CMO are hovering in no man’s land. The stock is trading in the middle of Bollinger band not giving any directional bias. Short-term technical just saw a 18×9 bearish crossover.

The MACD line and the signal line are moving very close to each other unable to provide any direction for the stock. Also, both long-term and short-term GMMA lines are very close to each other not giving any direction to the stock.

NTPC correlation chart

NTPC’s average correlation with the Nifty is 0.57 which is positive and quite strong. The scrip will be replicating movement of Nifty. [stockquote]NIFTYBEES[/stockquote]

NTPC volatility chart

NTPC has a historical volatility in the range of 0.3 to 0.7. The scrip’s volatility is currently in the lower end of the range.

Given these technicals, we suggest a short-term Sell. For the long-term, we will have to wait and watch how the GMMA lines unravel themselves. However, we suggest having trailing stop-losses in case sudden trend-reversal were to take place.

The government is selling its 9.5% stake (78.3 Cr shares) at a floor price of Rs. 145 per stock, a discount of Rs. 10 per share. The stock is currently trading at a PE of 13.05, a price of Rs. 145 will bring it down to 12.17, lesser than comparables. With the US power industry rotating from coal to domestic natural gas, we expect the international price of coal, the main input cost for NTPC, come down over a period of time. We give the government’s OFS a BUY at this price.

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Analysis: SUNTV

Today’s pick is SUNTV [stockquote]SUNTV[/stockquote]. The stock started the year in a range bound movement, but broke down of the range in March, slipping to Rs 225 levels by June. Since then the stock has been on an uptrend and saw its 52-week high just yesterday. In the last three months, the stock has moved +44% vs. +5% of the Nifty’s.

SUNTV technical analysis chart

Oscillator RSI and CMO are hovering in the over-bought territory. The stock is trading in the top end of Bollinger band giving out an extremely bearish direction.

The MACD line and the signal line are moving away from each other, suggesting a continuation of the medium term up-trend, confirmed by rising histogram levels. Also, both long-term and short-term GMMA lines are very distant from each other, giving out a bullish sign for the scrip.

SUNTV correlation chart

SUNTV’s average correlation with the Nifty is 0.53 which is positive. The scrip will be replicating movement of Nifty. [stockquote]NIFTYBEES[/stockquote]

SUNTV volatility chart

SUNTV has a historical volatility in the range of 0.4 to 1.2. The scrip’s volatility is currently in the lower end of the range.

Given these technicals, we suggest a short-term Sell for correction. But for the long-term, we see the stock to be sticking to its long-term up-trend and hence is a Buy. However, we suggest having trailing stop-losses in case sudden trend-reversal were to take place.

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Investing with a Human Touch

Abhishek, our Chief Technical Analyst, will start blogging about his own personal investments from today. He has seeded his account with Rs. 20,000/- a sum that most retail investors get started with. The idea is to show how you can use the tools provided by StockViz to:

  • Screen for stocks
  • Confirm the right entry point
  • How to manage risk, and
  • When to exit

Wish him good luck!

Follow his posts here.

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Analysis: INFY

Today’s pick is INFY [stockquote]INFY[/stockquote]. The stock was moving in a range till March since starting of the year. It then fell sharply to Rs. 2,400 levels in April after moving in range till July the stock again fell to Rs. 2,200 levels. Since then the stock has been on an uptrend. In the last three months, the stock has moved +16% vs. +5% of the Nifty’s.

INFY technical analysis chart

Oscillator RSI is hovering in the over-bought territory whereas CMO is in no man’s land. The stock is trading in the middle of Bollinger band not suggesting any directional move. However, short-term technical just saw 9×4 bearish cross-over.

The MACD line has just penetrated the signal line in a bearish manner. However, both long-term and short-term GMMA lines are very distant from each other, giving out an extremely bullish sign for the scrip.

INFY correlation chart

INFY’s average correlation with the Nifty is 0.51 which is positive. The scrip will be replicating movement of Nifty. [stockquote]NIFTYBEES[/stockquote]

INFY volatility chart

INFY has a historical volatility in the range of 0.2 to 0.7. The scrip’s volatility is currently in the higher end of the range.

INFY Analyst coverage

Majority of analysts are suggesting a hold for this stock given the current condition of the IT industry.

Given these technicals, we suggest a short-term sell. For the long-term, we suggest a buy given the well spread out GMMA lines. However, we recommend that investors tread with caution given that the spread in the GMMA lines has occurred due to the +20% spike seen at the most recent earnings announcement. Also, for risk management we suggest having trailing stop-losses in case trend-reversal were to take place.

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