Tag: technical analysis

Analysis: RCOM

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Today’s pick is RCOM [stockquote]RCOM[/stockquote]. The stock started the year with a very quick up-move which experienced resistance around Rs. 110 levels in Feburary. After a head-and-shoulder top formation, the stock started its down-ward movement to see a bottom of Rs. 50 by September. Since then, the stock has been on an up-move. In the last three months, the stock has moved +54% vs. +7% of the Nifty’s.

RCOM technical analysis chart

Oscillators RSI and CMO are hovering close to the over-bought territory and are suggesting a short-term bearish price action. The stock is close to the upper Bollinger band, which is suggesting a bearish move for the stock as well.

The MACD line and signal line are moving very close to each other unable to suggest any short-term direction. Long-term and short-term GMMA lines are well dispersed and are pointing towards a bullish long-term direction for the scrip.

RCOM correlation chart

RCOM’s average correlation with the Nifty is 0.62 is positive and strong. The scrip will be closely replicating the movement of Nifty. [stockquote]NIFTYBEES[/stockquote]

RCOM volatility chart

RCOM has a historical volatility in the range of 0.4 to 1.0. The scrip’s volatility is currently in the middle of the range.

Given these technicals, we suggest a short-term Sell owing to the little divergence of price with momentum oscillator. A longer term Buy is suggested attributing to the well spread out GMMA lines and current up-trend. However, we suggest having trailing stop-losses in place, in case trend-reversal were to take place.

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Analysis: CUMMINSIND

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Today’s pick is CUMMINSIND [stockquote]CUMMINSIND[/stockquote]. The stock started the year with a very quick up-move which experienced resistance around Rs. 500 levels. After many trials to break free, the stock traced down 20% to find the trend-line for support in June. Since then, the stock has been on an up-move and has seen a constant support from the trend-line. It saw its 52 weeks high of Rs. 542 in end December. In the last three months, the stock has moved -5% vs. +6% of the Nifty’s.

CUMMINSIND technical analysis chart

Oscillators RSI and CMO are nearing the over-sold territory and are suggesting a short-term bullish price action. The stock is close to the lower Bollinger band, which is suggesting a bullish move for the stock as well.

The MACD line and signal line are moving very close to each other unable to suggest any short-term direction, although the stagnating histograms level are suggesting a trend reversal. Long-term and short-term GMMA lines are very close to each other and are not able to point at the direction of stock movement.

CUMMINSIND correlation chart

CUMMINSIND’s average correlation with the Nifty is 0.49 is positive. The scrip will be replicating the movement of Nifty. [stockquote]NIFTYBEES[/stockquote]

CUMMINSIND volatility chart

CUMMINSIND has a historical volatility in the range of 0.4 to 1.0. The scrip’s volatility however is currently in the lower end of the range.

Given these technicals, we suggest a short-term Buy. A longer term watch is suggested, a call could be taken on the basis of spreading out of GMMA lines. To manage your risks we suggest having trailing stop-losses in case trend-reversal were to take place.

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Analysis: CAIRN

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Today’s pick is CAIRN [stockquote]CAIRN[/stockquote]. The stock started the year with a rush to Rs. 400. The momentum exhausted and left the stock plunging to Rs. 300 levels by May. The stock tested this support level quite many times since then and has just started moving up after breaking out of the pennant in late December. In the last three months, the stock has not moved at all vs. +6% move of the Nifty’s.

CAIRN technical analysis chart

Oscillators RSI and CMO are close to the over-bought territory but are not showing any bias.

The MACD line and signal line are moving very close to each other unable to suggest any short-term direction. Although decreasing histogram levels are pointing to an imminent short-term bearish move. Long-term and short-term GMMA lines are very close to each other and are not able to point at the direction of stock movement.

CAIRN correlation chart

CAIRN’s average correlation with the Nifty is 0.49 is positive. The scrip will be replicating the movement of Nifty. [stockquote]NIFTYBEES[/stockquote]

CAIRN volaitility chart

CAIRN has a historical volatility in the range of 0.2 to 0.6. The scrip’s volatility however is currently in the lower end of the range and hence should not be a concern to the traders.

Life insurance corporation of India bought Rs 1,291 Crore worth of shares on 3rd Jan in an insider trade instance.

Given these technicals, we suggest a short-term Hold. A Long-term call could be taken once the GMMA lines start to spread and give out a positive cue. It will be beneficial to have trailing stop-losses in place, in order to book profits if a trend-reversal were to take place.

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Analysis: HDFCBANK (HDB)

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Today’s pick is HDFCBANK [stockquote]HDFCBANK[/stockquote]. The stock has been on an up-move for most part of the year and it experienced the 52 weeks high of Rs. 700 in November. Since then the stock has been in a downward sloping flag formation. In the last three months, the stock has moved +4% vs. +7% of the Nifty’s.

HDFCBANK technical analysis chart

Oscillators RSI and CMO are nearing the over-sold territory and are suggesting a short-term bullish price action. The stock is close to the lower Bollinger band, which is suggesting a bullish move for the stock as well.

The MACD line and signal line are moving very close to each other unable to suggest any short-term direction. Long-term and short-term GMMA lines are very close to each other and are not able to point at the direction of stock movement.

HDFCBANK correlation chart

HDFCBANK’s average correlation with the Nifty is 0.71 is positive and quite strong. The scrip will be closely replicating the movement of Nifty. [stockquote]NIFTYBEES[/stockquote]

HDFCBANK volatility chart

HDFCBANK has a historical volatility in the range of 1.0 to 4.0. The scrip’s volatility however is currently in the lower end of the range and hence should not be a concern to the traders.

Analysts have positive expectations regarding this stock. Less than expected earnings might hit the street expectations in the coming reviews and might impact the stock as well.

Given these technicals, we suggest a short-term Hold. A break-out of the flag in either direction will trigger a longer-term call.

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Analysis: JUBLFOOD

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Today’s pick is JUBLFOOD [stockquote]JUBLFOOD[/stockquote]. The stock has been on an up-move since the beginning of last year and it experienced the 52 weeks high of 1,400 in October. Since then the stock has been in a downward sloping flag formation. In the last three months, the stock has moved -4% vs. +6% of the Nifty’s.

JUBLFOOD technical analysis chart

Oscillators RSI and CMO are nearing the over-sold territory and are suggesting a short-term bullish price action. The stock is close to the lower Bollinger band, which is suggesting a bullish move for the stock as well.

The MACD line and signal line are moving very close to each other unable to suggest any short-term direction. Long-term and short-term GMMA lines are very close to each other and are not able to point at the direction of stock movement.

JUBLFOOD correlation chart

JUBLFOOD’s average correlation with the Nifty is -0.06 is negative. The scrip will not be replicating the movement of Nifty. [stockquote]NIFTYBEES[/stockquote]

JUBLFOOD volatility chart

JUBLFOOD has a historical volatility in the range of 0.4 to 1.0. The scrip’s volatility currently is in the lower end of the range.

Given these technicals, we suggest a short-term Buy. A longer term call could only be taken based on the direction of the breakout from the flag in formation. Although, It will be beneficial to have trailing stop-losses in place.

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