Tag: technical analysis

Analysis: PNB

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Today’s pick is PNB [stockquote]PNB[/stockquote]. The stock saw a double top at the beginning of the year and started its descent to Rs. 700 levels. It then was range bound between Rs. 700 – Rs. 850 from June to November. In December it saw a bullish breakout of the range, but scrip found strong resistance around Rs. 900 levels to pull it back to Rs. 850 levels. In the last three months, the stock moved -2% same as that of the Nifty’s.

PNB Technical analysis chart

Oscillator RSI and CMO are in no man’s land. The stock is trading in the lower end of a compact Bollinger band giving out a bullish signal. Short-term technical saw a 9×4 bearish signal a couple of days ago.

The MACD line and signal line are moving parallel to each other without giving any directional bias. Also, Long-term and short-term GMMA lines are currently inverted and are contracting giving a bearish bias for the stock.

PNB correlation chart

PNB’s average correlation with the Nifty is 0.68 which is positive and strong. The scrip will be replicating movement of Nifty. [stockquote]NIFTYBEES[/stockquote]

PNB Volatility chart

PNB has a historical volatility in the range of 0.3 to 0.6. The scrip’s volatility is currently in the higher end of the range.

Given these technicals, we suggest a short-term sell. A long-term Watch is suggested given the range bound movement. A call could be taken depending on the directional break-out of the range.

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Analysis: SIEMENS

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Today’s pick is SIEMENS [stockquote]SIEMENS[/stockquote]. The stock saw a double top at the beginning of the year, to start its descent to Rs. 650 levels. It then was range bound between Rs. 650 – Rs. 750 for June to January. In January it saw a bearish breakout of the range, and has since been headed south. In the last three months, the stock moved -22% vs. -2% of the Nifty’s.

SIEMENS technical analysis chart

Oscillator RSI and CMO are deep into over-sold territory. The stock is trading in the lower edge of a very broad Bollinger band.

The MACD line and signal line are moving parallel to each other without giving any directional bias. Also, Long-term and short-term GMMA lines are currently inverted and expanding giving a bearish bias for the stock.

SIEMENS correlation chart

SIEMENS’s average correlation with the Nifty is 0.58 which is positive and strong. The scrip will be replicating movement of Nifty. [stockquote]NIFTYBEES[/stockquote]

SIEMENS volatility chart

SIEMENS has a historical volatility in the range of 0.2 to 0.5. The scrip’s volatility is currently in the lower end of the range.

Given these technicals, we suggest a short-term Buy and a long-term Sell. However, as the scrip is deep in over-sold territory, I suspect that a move back is in waiting for the short-term.

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Analysis: BAJAJHLDNG

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Today’s pick is BAJAJHLDNG [stockquote]BAJAJHLDNG[/stockquote]. The stock hurried to to Rs. 800 point in 15 days at the start of the year. It then hovered around the level until September before a bullish breakout of the range. Since then the stock has been on an up-trend and saw its 52 week high of Rs. 1050 in January. In the last three months, the stock has moved +10% vs. a flat Nifty.

BAJAJHLDNG technical analysis chart

Oscillator RSI and CMO are in no man’s land. The stock is trading in the middle of a very narrow Bollinger band not giving any short-term directional bias. Short-term technicals saw a 4×9 bullish cross-over.

The MACD line and signal line are moving very close to each other without giving any directional bias. Also, Long-term and short-term GMMA lines can be seen contracting, unable to give any direction to the stock. The stock is again moving in a range.

BAJAJHLDNG correlation chart

BAJAJHLDNG’s average correlation with the Nifty is -0.01 which is negative. The scrip will not be replicating movement of Nifty. [stockquote]NIFTYBEES[/stockquote]

BAJAJHLDNG volatility chart

BAJAJHLDNG has a historical volatility in the range of 0.2 to 1.0. The scrip’s volatility is currently in the lower end of the range.

Given these technicals, we suggest a short-term Sell. A long-term buy would be a good idea given the trend-line in place. However, It is suggested to have broad trailing stop-losses to capture the upside in case sudden trend-reversal were to take place.

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Analysis: TATACOMM (TCL)

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Today’s pick is TATACOMM [stockquote]TATACOMM[/stockquote]. The stock has been range-bound between Rs. 220 and Rs. 260 for most part of the year. There is a secondary support at Rs. 200 levels. The stock is again headed towards the lower end of the range. In the last three months, the stock has moved -4.1% vs. a flat Nifty.

TATACOMM technical analysis chart

Oscillator RSI and CMO are in no man’s land. The stock is trading in the middle of Bollinger band not giving any short-term directional bias. Short-term technicals saw a 9×18 bullish cross-over.

The MACD line and signal line are moving very close to each other without giving any directional bias. Also, Long-term and short-term GMMA lines can be seen contracting, unable to give any direction to the stock.

TATACOMM correlation chart

TATACOMM’s average correlation with the Nifty is -0.11 which is negative. The scrip will not be replicating movement of Nifty. [stockquote]NIFTYBEES[/stockquote]

TATACOMM volatility chart

TATACOMM has a historical volatility in the range of 0.4 to 1.2. The scrip’s volatility is currently in the lower end of the range.

TATACOMM (TCL: NS) Analysts coverage

Analysts continue to have an underperform rating for the stock.

Given these technicals, we suggest a short-term hold. For the long-term a call can be taken once this Rs. 220 – Rs. 260 range is broken in either direction. However trailing stop-losses will be of help in case sudden trend-reversal were to take place.

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Analysis: PRESTIGE

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Today’s pick is PRESTIGE [stockquote]PRESTIGE[/stockquote]. The stock has been on an uptrend for most part of the year. It moved in a very tight range of Rs. 100 and Rs. 120 for 5 months through April to August to break out with a bullish move. Since then the stock has been moving on an uptrend and saw its 52 weeks high of Rs. 195 couple of weeks ago. In the last three months, the stock has moved +10% vs. +2% of the Nifty’s.

PRESTIGE technical analysis chart

Oscillator RSI and CMO are in no man’s land. The stock is trading in the middle of Bollinger band not giving any short-term directional bias. Short-term technicals saw a 4×9 bullish cross-over accompanied with a Dragonfly bullish doji.

The MACD line and signal line are moving very close to each other without giving any directional bias. However, Long-term and short-term GMMA lines can be seen expanding giving out an extremely bullish signal for the stock.

PRESTIGE correlation chart

PRESTIGE’s average correlation with the Nifty is -0.08 which is negative. The scrip will not be replicating movement of Nifty. [stockquote]NIFTYBEES[/stockquote]

PRESTIGE volatility chart

PRESTIGE has a historical volatility in the range of 0.6 to 1.4. The scrip’s volatility is currently in the lower end of the range.

Given these technicals, we suggest a short-term buy. For the long-term also we suggest a buy with a keen eye around Rs. 195 levels, which might act as resistance for the stock in the short-term. However trailing stop-losses will be of help in case sudden trend-reversal were to take place.

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