Tag: monthly

Monthly Recap: May you live in Interesting Times…

world.2016-04-29.2016-05-31

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) +1.50%
CAC(FRA) +0.92%
UKX(GBR) -1.16%
NKY(JPN) +1.74%
SPX(USA) +2.15%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) +0.02%
INMEX(MEX) -1.61%
NGSEINDX(NGA) +7.83%
XU030(TUR) -9.43%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) -9.81%
SHCOMP(CHN) -0.84%
NIFTY(IND) +4.21%
INDEXCF(RUS) -2.70%
TOP40(ZAF) +2.50%

Commodities

Energy
Ethanol +6.67%
Heating Oil +7.38%
Natural Gas +7.49%
Brent Crude Oil +2.90%
RBOB Gasoline +0.68%
WTI Crude Oil +6.55%
Metals
Copper -7.49%
Platinum -8.82%
Silver 5000oz -10.11%
Gold 100oz -5.52%
Palladium -12.65%

Currencies

USDEUR:+2.47% USDJPY:+2.45%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) +3.65%
USDMXN(MEX) +7.17%
USDNGN(NGA) +0.00%
USDTRY(TUR) +5.40%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) +4.23%
USDCNY(CHN) +1.54%
USDINR(IND) +1.69%
USDRUB(RUS) +3.25%
USDZAR(ZAF) +10.07%
Agricultural
Lean Hogs +3.33%
Lumber +2.78%
Orange Juice +20.00%
Wheat -2.56%
White Sugar +2.88%
Coffee (Robusta) +6.04%
Corn +2.81%
Cotton +0.28%
Soybean Meal +18.55%
Soybeans +5.17%
Cattle -2.34%
Cocoa -3.81%
Coffee (Arabica) +1.70%
Feeder Cattle +5.01%
Sugar #11 +7.46%

Credit Indices

Index Change
Markit CDX EM -0.78%
Markit CDX NA HY -0.24%
Markit CDX NA IG +0.19%
Markit iTraxx Asia ex-Japan IG +0.55%
Markit iTraxx Australia -4.39%
Markit iTraxx Europe -0.16%
Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover +3.18%
Markit iTraxx Japan -4.31%
Markit MCDX (Municipal CDS) -2.00%
The US Dollar rallied, NIFTY was the best performing equity index…

International ETFs (USD)

global.etf.performance.2016-04-29.2016-05-31

Nifty Heatmap

NIFTY 50.2016-04-29.2016-05-31

Index Returns

index.performance.2016-04-29.2016-05-31

Market Cap Decile Performance

deciles.perf.2016-05-31

Top Winners and Losers

PIDILITIND +17.11%
LT +17.45%
SRTRANSFIN +25.19%
ADANIPORTS -19.33%
RCOM -16.46%
CIPLA -11.98%
Mirroring the performance of sector indices…

ETF Performance

INFRABEES +5.44%
BANKBEES +4.88%
NIFTYBEES +3.96%
JUNIORBEES +2.15%
PSUBNKBEES +0.93%
CPSEETF -1.09%
GOLDBEES -2.63%
Infrastructure caught a bid. But for how long?

Yield Curve

yieldCurve.2016-04-29.2016-05-31

Bond Indices

Sub Index Change in YTM Total Return(%)
0 5 -0.03 +0.73%
5 10 -0.01 +0.73%
10 15 -0.10 +1.38%
15 20 -0.00 +0.71%
20 30 -0.01 +0.79%
Bonds put in a decent performance…

Investment Theme Performance

Low Beta/Volatility outperformed momentum…

Equity Mutual Funds

Bond Mutual Funds

Indian bonds are cheap…

ust-ind-10yr-spread.2016-04-29

Institutional flows

fii-investments.2014-01-01.2016-05-31

dii-investments.2014-01-01.2016-05-31

Book of the Month

Everything is interpreted through the prism of our own experiences.

The Confidence Game: Why We Fall for It . . . Every Time

The Confidence Game: Why We Fall for It… Every Time by Maria Konnikova (Amazon)

Monthly Recap: April Angst

world.2016-03-31.2016-04-29

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) +0.74%
CAC(FRA) +1.00%
UKX(GBR) +1.08%
NKY(JPN) -0.55%
SPX(USA) +0.22%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) -0.14%
INMEX(MEX) +0.12%
NGSEINDX(NGA) -0.96%
XU030(TUR) +2.39%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) +7.81%
SHCOMP(CHN) -2.18%
NIFTY(IND) +1.44%
INDEXCF(RUS) +4.38%
TOP40(ZAF) +0.72%

Commodities

Energy
Natural Gas +9.63%
Brent Crude Oil +19.35%
WTI Crude Oil +18.78%
Ethanol +7.67%
Heating Oil +16.52%
RBOB Gasoline +12.21%
Metals
Gold 100oz +4.91%
Silver 5000oz +16.23%
Palladium +9.91%
Copper +3.65%
Platinum +10.43%

Currencies

USDEUR:-0.56% USDJPY:-5.32%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) -0.45%
USDMXN(MEX) -0.99%
USDNGN(NGA) -0.03%
USDTRY(TUR) -0.91%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) -4.40%
USDCNY(CHN) +0.38%
USDINR(IND) +0.12%
USDRUB(RUS) -3.34%
USDZAR(ZAF) -3.57%
Agricultural
Cattle -13.57%
Lean Hogs +14.21%
Soybean Meal +22.41%
Feeder Cattle -10.82%
Wheat +1.48%
Coffee (Arabica) -5.56%
Coffee (Robusta) +5.78%
Corn +11.55%
Cotton +8.51%
Lumber -5.54%
Orange Juice -12.86%
Soybeans +12.23%
Sugar #11 +6.16%
Cocoa +7.24%
White Sugar +5.30%

Credit Indices

Index Change
Markit CDX EM +0.60%
Markit CDX NA HY +0.89%
Markit CDX NA IG -4.40%
Markit iTraxx Asia ex-Japan IG -6.15%
Markit iTraxx Australia -9.74%
Markit iTraxx Europe -1.61%
Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover -9.50%
Markit iTraxx Japan -21.20%
Markit MCDX (Municipal CDS) +0.33%
An eventful month with the RBI cutting rates, ICICI dropping a bomb, BOJ holding off on more QE and oil recovering…

International ETFs (USD)

global.etf.performance.2016-03-31.2016-04-29

Nifty Heatmap

NIFTY 50.2016-03-31.2016-04-29

Index Returns

index.performance.2016-03-31.2016-04-29

Market Cap Decile Performance

deciles.perf.2016-04-29

Top Winners and Losers

UPL +12.60%
DLF +12.85%
VEDL +15.53%
NHPC -14.49%
BHARATFORG -8.59%
UBL -7.88%
High beta stocks rebounded from Jan/Feb lows…

ETF Performance

GOLDBEES +5.98%
BANKBEES +3.70%
JUNIORBEES +3.05%
INFRABEES +2.94%
CPSEETF +2.69%
PSUBNKBEES +1.03%
NIFTYBEES +0.49%
Is infra the next story?

Yield Curve

yieldCurve.2016-03-31.2016-04-29

Bond Indices

Sub Index Change in YTM Total Return(%)
0 5 -0.05 +0.77%
5 10 -0.06 +0.92%
10 15 -0.04 +0.94%
15 20 -0.12 +1.75%
20 30 -0.08 +1.50%
Bonds rebounded…

Investment Theme Performance

Midcap recovery under way…

Equity Mutual Funds

Bond Mutual Funds

Institutional flows

FII’s seen renewing their love affair with Indian bonds…

fii-investments.2014-01-01.2016-04-29

dii-investments.2014-01-01.2016-04-29

US Treasuries

Gilts are in the process of normalizing.
ust-ind-10yr-spread.2014-01-01

Is spread between 2s and 10s calling a bluff on a Fed rate hike?

ust-yield-curve.2s10s

Thought to sum up the month

Chance plays a far larger role in life outcomes than most people realize. And yet, the luckiest among us appear especially unlikely to appreciate our good fortune. Wealthy people overwhelmingly attribute their own success to hard work rather than to factors like luck or being in the right place at the right time.

That’s troubling, because seeing ourselves as self-made—rather than as talented, hardworking, and lucky—leads us to be less generous and public-spirited. It may even make the lucky less likely to support the conditions (such as high-quality public infrastructure and education) that made their own success possible.

Source: Why Luck Matters More Than You Might Think

What I read this month

What I Learned Losing a Million Dollars:
_20160501_111546

Amazon

March Madness 2016

world.2016-02-29.2016-03-31

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) +3.33%
CAC(FRA) -1.04%
UKX(GBR) +0.09%
NKY(JPN) +0.86%
SPX(USA) +5.44%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) +1.51%
INMEX(MEX) +5.97%
NGSEINDX(NGA) +2.95%
XU030(TUR) +9.00%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) +16.69%
SHCOMP(CHN) +11.96%
NIFTY(IND) +10.39%
INDEXCF(RUS) +0.37%
TOP40(ZAF) +4.08%

Commodities

Energy
Brent Crude Oil +10.30%
Ethanol +4.44%
Heating Oil +8.39%
RBOB Gasoline +38.22%
Natural Gas +13.84%
WTI Crude Oil +11.73%
Metals
Palladium +15.93%
Copper +2.35%
Gold 100oz -0.06%
Silver 5000oz +4.73%
Platinum +5.15%

Currencies

USDEUR:-4.70% USDJPY:-0.63%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) -1.56%
USDMXN(MEX) -4.16%
USDNGN(NGA) +0.00%
USDTRY(TUR) -4.86%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) -9.97%
USDCNY(CHN) -1.35%
USDINR(IND) -3.18%
USDRUB(RUS) -9.94%
USDZAR(ZAF) -7.24%
Agricultural
Cocoa -2.75%
Feeder Cattle -0.55%
White Sugar +8.29%
Cattle -4.71%
Coffee (Robusta) +9.77%
Corn -1.27%
Lumber +21.75%
Orange Juice +17.57%
Sugar #11 +4.72%
Coffee (Arabica) +11.78%
Cotton +2.76%
Soybeans +7.00%
Lean Hogs -2.05%
Soybean Meal +4.55%
Wheat +5.96%

Credit Indices

Index Change
Markit CDX EM +2.89%
Markit CDX NA HY +3.28%
Markit CDX NA IG -27.66%
Markit iTraxx Asia ex-Japan IG -6.67%
Markit iTraxx Australia -15.03%
Markit iTraxx Europe -26.80%
Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover -98.68%
Markit iTraxx Japan -9.45%
Markit MCDX (Municipal CDS) -14.58%
Markets rebounded with the Fed assuming the role of the world’s central bank…

International ETFs (USD)

global.etf.performance.2016-02-29.2016-03-31

Nifty Heatmap

NIFTY 50.2016-02-29.2016-03-31

Index Returns

index.performance.2016-02-29.2016-03-31

Market Cap Decile Performance

Decile Mkt. Cap. Adv/Decl
1 (micro) +0.54% 70/61
2 +9.38% 82/48
3 +10.53% 91/39
4 +9.03% 82/48
5 +7.85% 84/46
6 +6.78% 85/45
7 +10.83% 83/47
8 +7.10% 83/47
9 +12.46% 81/49
10 (mega) +1.97% 74/57

Top Winners and Losers

TATAMOTORS +29.00%
RELINFRA +30.19%
CAIRN +30.44%
LUPIN -15.69%
APOLLOHOSP -9.19%
COALINDIA -6.13%
Dash for trash?

ETF Performance

PSUBNKBEES +19.47%
BANKBEES +15.43%
INFRABEES +12.76%
NIFTYBEES +11.70%
JUNIORBEES +9.02%
CPSEETF +8.08%
GOLDBEES -3.22%
With bank balance-sheet clean up in full swing, banks got the better bid…

Yield Curve

yieldCurve.2016-02-29.2016-03-31

Bond Indices

Sub Index Change in YTM Total Return(%)
0 5 -0.22 +1.22%
5 10 -0.24 +1.91%
10 15 -0.30 +2.56%
15 20 -0.35 +3.94%
20 30 -0.37 +4.59%
Rate cut already factored in?

Investment Theme Performance

The worst hit asset classes saw the steepest rebound…

Equity Mutual Funds

Bond Mutual Funds

Thought to sum up the month

Why do amateurs believe they can outperform the professionals — or even identify those pros who will outperform? (Performance of individual mutual funds cannot be predicted with any greater degree of accuracy than individual stocks or bonds.)

  1. Overconfidence
  2. Optimism Bias
  3. Hindsight Bias
  4. Attribution Bias
  5. Confirmation Bias

Source: Why We Think We’re Better Investors Than We Are

Monthly Recap: Winter

world.2016-01-29.2016-02-29

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) -3.09%
CAC(FRA) -1.44%
UKX(GBR) +0.22%
NKY(JPN) -9.14%
SPX(USA) +0.40%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) +3.52%
INMEX(MEX) +2.41%
NGSEINDX(NGA) +2.74%
XU030(TUR) +3.56%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) +6.39%
SHCOMP(CHN) -1.50%
NIFTY(IND) -7.62%
INDEXCF(RUS) +3.10%
TOP40(ZAF) -0.60%

Commodities

Energy
Brent Crude Oil +5.42%
RBOB Gasoline +20.16%
WTI Crude Oil +0.57%
Ethanol -2.68%
Heating Oil +3.61%
Natural Gas -25.63%
Metals
Copper +1.94%
Palladium +0.74%
Platinum +7.21%
Gold 100oz +11.54%
Silver 5000oz +4.93%

Currencies

USDEUR:-0.50% USDJPY:-7.25%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) -2.92%
USDMXN(MEX) +0.11%
USDNGN(NGA) +0.10%
USDTRY(TUR) +0.22%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) +0.07%
USDCNY(CHN) -0.53%
USDINR(IND) +0.93%
USDRUB(RUS) -0.89%
USDZAR(ZAF) -0.25%
Agricultural
Cattle +3.18%
Feeder Cattle +1.22%
Lean Hogs +6.19%
White Sugar +0.02%
Coffee (Robusta) +0.51%
Corn -4.78%
Lumber +5.88%
Soybeans -2.98%
Wheat -6.37%
Cocoa +10.09%
Cotton -4.85%
Coffee (Arabica) -3.26%
Orange Juice -9.50%
Soybean Meal -4.92%
Sugar #11 +9.12%

Credit Indices

Index Change
Markit CDX EM +0.27%
Markit CDX NA HY -0.58%
Markit CDX NA IG +7.19%
Markit iTraxx Asia ex-Japan IG +5.66%
Markit iTraxx Australia +15.41%
Markit iTraxx Europe +9.54%
Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover +45.82%
Markit iTraxx Japan +12.00%
Markit MCDX (Municipal CDS) +3.25%
Jan and Feb saw a wave of volatility hit pretty much every asset class. Diversification provided scant protection in wave-after-wave of selling across world markets and asset classes. Hopefully the great purge is done and we can look forward to better days ahead…

International ETFs (USD)

global.etf.performance.2016-01-29.2016-02-29

Nifty Heatmap

NIFTY 50.2016-01-29.2016-02-29

Index Returns

index.performance.2016-01-29.2016-02-29

Market Cap Decile Performance

Decile Mkt. Cap. Adv/Decl
1 (micro) -22.65% 46/80
2 -19.11% 29/96
3 -20.26% 31/95
4 -17.46% 30/95
5 -16.40% 31/95
6 -15.09% 37/88
7 -12.49% 42/84
8 -12.19% 34/91
9 -11.15% 50/76
10 (mega) -6.23% 63/63
Mid- small- and micro-caps bore the brunt…

Top Winners and Losers

MARICO +6.81%
BHARTIARTL +8.83%
EICHERMOT +14.23%
BHEL -34.50%
PNB -22.23%
AUROPHARMA -21.41%
Eicher Motors emerged a big winner…

ETF Performance

GOLDBEES +9.31%
JUNIORBEES -6.73%
INFRABEES -6.80%
NIFTYBEES -7.07%
CPSEETF -9.72%
BANKBEES -9.83%
PSUBNKBEES -11.21%
Gold. Enuf said.

Yield Curve

yieldCurve.2016-01-29.2016-02-29

Bond Indices

Sub Index Change in YTM Total Return(%)
0 5 +0.14 +0.28%
5 10 +0.12 +0.02%
10 15 +0.15 -0.42%
15 20 +0.12 -0.41%
20 30 +0.11 -0.38%
Long bonds got shellacked…

Investment Theme Performance

Equity Mutual Funds

Bond Mutual Funds

Fund flows

FIIs sold out of both equities and bonds…

fii-investments.2014-01-01.2016-02-29

dii-investments.2014-01-01.2016-02-29

Bonds

The spread between 10-year US treasuries and Indian gilts are at levels seen in late 2013…
ust-ind-10yr-spread.2011-01-18

… and all is not hunky-dory in the US bond markets either. The spread between 10yrs and 2yrs are at their lowest since 2008…
ust-yield-curve.2s10s

… and the whole yield curve shifted down in February.
ust-yield-curve.2011-01-18

Thoughts

As we hit ‘publish’ on this article, Indian markets are enjoying a post-budget rally. Did markets find a bottom in February? Or is more pain to come? Bring on the March madness!

Monthly Recap: Carnage

world.2015-12-31.2016-01-29

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) -8.80%
CAC(FRA) -4.75%
UKX(GBR) -2.54%
NKY(JPN) -7.96%
SPX(USA) -5.60%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) +0.48%
INMEX(MEX) +0.57%
NGSEINDX(NGA) -16.50%
XU030(TUR) +2.99%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) -6.79%
SHCOMP(CHN) -22.65%
NIFTY(IND) -4.82%
INDEXCF(RUS) +1.34%
TOP40(ZAF) -3.78%

Commodities

Energy
Heating Oil -3.91%
Natural Gas -1.66%
RBOB Gasoline -11.16%
WTI Crude Oil -10.10%
Brent Crude Oil -4.76%
Ethanol +1.79%
Metals
Palladium -11.05%
Silver 5000oz +3.62%
Copper -3.29%
Gold 100oz +5.37%
Platinum +0.33%

Currencies

USDEUR:+0.42% USDJPY:+0.79%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) -0.07%
USDMXN(MEX) +5.13%
USDNGN(NGA) -0.17%
USDTRY(TUR) +1.33%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) +0.98%
USDCNY(CHN) +1.27%
USDINR(IND) +2.48%
USDRUB(RUS) +3.59%
USDZAR(ZAF) +2.66%
Agricultural
Cotton -3.97%
Soybeans +1.23%
Wheat +1.75%
Coffee (Arabica) -7.87%
Lean Hogs +10.06%
Cocoa -11.17%
Coffee (Robusta) -6.98%
Corn +3.70%
Soybean Meal +2.84%
White Sugar -3.72%
Cattle -0.74%
Feeder Cattle -6.28%
Lumber -6.05%
Orange Juice -5.13%
Sugar #11 -13.48%

Credit Indices

Index Change
Markit CDX EM -0.81%
Markit CDX NA HY -2.26%
Markit CDX NA IG +16.56%
Markit iTraxx Asia ex-Japan IG +19.42%
Markit iTraxx Australia +17.89%
Markit iTraxx Europe +14.77%
Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover +51.56%
Markit iTraxx Japan +15.56%
Markit MCDX (Municipal CDS) +6.25%
A fresh bout of volatility hit the markets in January. EM currencies crashed, China capital outflows accelerated and Japan announced negative interest rates. The first half of February will see companies announce their quarterly results, adding a fresh dose of fuel to the volatility fire…

International ETFs (USD)

global.etf.performance.2015-12-31.2016-01-29

Nifty Heatmap

NIFTY 50.2015-12-31.2016-01-29

Index Returns

For a deeper dive into indices, check out our weekly Index Update.
index.performance.2015-12-31.2016-01-29

Market Cap Decile Performance

Decile Mkt. Cap. Adv/Decl
1 (micro) -17.03% 69/71
2 -9.17% 65/74
3 -15.39% 52/87
4 -16.38% 45/95
5 -18.88% 41/98
6 -14.42% 45/94
7 -15.34% 51/89
8 -15.24% 56/83
9 -16.29% 55/84
10 (mega) -7.84% 67/73
Mid- and small-caps bore the brunt of the selloff…

Top Winners and Losers

TITAN +4.77%
INFY +5.38%
SUNPHARMA +6.44%
RCOM -29.58%
IDEA -28.19%
PNB -21.09%
Whats the difference between a Brutality and Fatality?

ETF Performance

GOLDBEES +6.32%
NIFTYBEES -5.07%
CPSEETF -6.19%
JUNIORBEES -8.02%
BANKBEES -8.28%
INFRABEES -12.00%
PSUBNKBEES -20.00%
Gold saw a bid on the back of Rupee collapse…

Yield Curve

yieldCurve.2015-12-31.2016-01-29

Bond Indices

Sub Index Change in YTM Total Return(%)
0 5 -0.13 +0.99%
5 10 -0.06 +0.96%
10 15 -0.02 +0.86%
15 20 +0.06 -0.04%
20 30 +0.11 -0.48%
Bonds proved their worth during the turmoil – diversification FTW!

Investment Theme Performance

Momentum saw the worst drawdown among all strategies. But the last few days have seen a dramatic recovery…

Equity Mutual Funds

Bond Mutual Funds

Thought to sum up the month

Here’s what happens when you make short-term decisions with long-term capital:

  • You constantly change your strategy and chase past performance.
  • You ignore any semblance of a long-term plan.
  • You end up being reactive instead of pro-active with your decisions.
  • You incur higher fees from increased trading, due diligence and switching costs.
  • You lose sight of your actual goals and time horizon.
  • You end up with a portfolio that’s built to withstand the last war, not the next one.
  • You lose out on much of the long-term benefits that come from diversification, rebalancing and mean reversion.

Source: Short-Term Thinking With Long-Term Capital