Weekly Recap

NIFTY.2012-10-29.2012-11-2

The NIFTY ended on a positive note, drifting up +0.82% for the week.
Biggest losers were BHEL (-5.36%), HINDUNILVR (-3.48%) and BPCL (-3.43%).
And the biggest winners were WIPRO (+8.50%), MARUTI (+7.34%) and IDFC (+6.62%).
Advancers lead decliners 29 vs 21
fii.2012-10-29.2012-11-2Gold: -0.02%, Banks: -0.70%. Infrastructure: -3.77%,
Net FII flows for the week: – $69.63 mm (Equity) and $561.84 mm (Debt)
Net domestic institutional flows for the week: – $35.50 mm (Equity) and $1,425.20 mm (Debt)
Daily news summaries are here.

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Analysis: WIPRO

Today’s pick is [stockquote]WIPRO[/stockquote]. The last year saw the stock trading in a 330 to 450 range and the stock just tested the support levels around 52 week lows. In the past 50 days the stock made return of 3.8% as against 6.2% made by Nifty.

The stock has been in a down-trend since April this year, with a support near the 335 levels and resistance around 450.

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Oscillators RSI and CMO are at currently at 54 and 6 and are hovering in the no man’s land.

MACD line just crossed the signal line and is on a rise; the histogram levels are rising as well suggesting short-term up-trend.

The GMMA chart is not suggesting any directional move as of now. The short-term lines are constricting and long-term lines are spreading. When the lines fan out, we will be able to take a stand on the direction. image

WIPRO’s average correlation of 0.56 with the Nifty is positive and strong. The stock will not replicate the movements of Nifty closely. [stockquote]NIFTYBEES[/stockquote]

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WIPRO has a historical volatility in the range of 0.3 to 0.7. The scrip’s volatility is currently in the middle range and hence should not be a concern to the traders.

Looking at these technicals a short-term buy is suggested. For the long-term outlook of the scrip we will have to wait for GMMA lines to give some direction.

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Preetam’s List

Roundup: Dow -0.08%. S&P +0.02%. Stoxx 50 -0.49%. Italy +0.12%. London –1.15%. Germany –0.33%. France -0.87%.

Taiwan and South Korea experienced huge outflows of people to the United States and other countries in the 1960s and ’70s, even as their economies were taking off. Wealth and better education have always been a major reason to go abroad. A concern about political oppression is forcing the Chinese emigration story to change – (NY) 

Will hurricane sandy be able to play a hand in the upcoming U.S. Elections? (Economist)

An Indian court has sentenced a man to life in prison for a 2009 hijack scare in a passenger plane, saying it was adopting a “zero tolerance” approach to prevent future incidents that could endanger the lives of other passengers. And Ajmal Kasab is still not sentenced – Are we really tolerating about the real terrorists or what? (CNBC)

Ukraine this week held a deeply flawed election, in which the main opposition leader was jailed and the biggest gains went to a party of neo-fascists, who appear to have won 10 percent of the vote. A depressing outcome after the uprising to overturn a stolen election 8 years ago. (Bloomberg)

Who says that technology like twitter can not be used for any other reasons than to make comments about rivals. They also save lives – See how it happened with Sandy incoming (CNBC)

Will the expanding Chinese manufacturing numbers help their markets take a turn?

 

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Analysis: TATASTEEL

Today’s pick is [stockquote]TATASTEEL[/stockquote]. The last year saw the stock trading in a 350 to 500 range and is currently trading around the same price.

The stock has been in a down-trend since February this year, with a support near the 350 levels and resistance around 470.

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Oscillators RSI and CMO are at currently at 41 and -35 and are hovering close to the oversold territory.

MACD line and signal line are at a distance; the histogram levels are stagnant suggesting a short term consolidation.

The GMMA chart is not suggesting any directional move. The short-term lines and long-term lines are too close to each other.

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TATASTEEL’s average correlation of 0.73 with the Nifty is positive and quite strong. The stock tends to replicate the movements of Nifty quite closely. [stockquote]NIFTYBEES[/stockquote]

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TATASTEEL has a historical volatility in the range of 0.3 to 0.8. The scrip’s volatility is currently in the middle range and hence should not be a concern to the traders.

Looking at these technicals a short-term hold is suggested. For the long-term outlook of the scrip a decisive breakout above the trend-line will suggest a change in the current down-trend.

After coming out with a positive result in Q3, U.S. Steel expects a global slowdown in the metal demand for the Q4. Will it be the same scenario for the TATASTEEL for the coming quarter as well?

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Analysis: RAYMOND

Today’s pick is [stockquote]RAYMOND[/stockquote]. The stock has made a 12% since the Rs. 335 levels of last October.

The up-trend since January this year has seen resistance around the 420 levels a few times. The stock has seen many corrections in the last one year, and is trading above the near-term support of 340.

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Oscillators RSI and CMO are at currently at 53 and -4. At this level of RSI, the stock has to decide on which way to go. CMO doesn’t suggest an imminent move either.

The MACD and signal lines are closing in. The histogram levels are on a decline suggesting a possibility of an up-move.

The GMMA chart for the stock is not suggesting a directional move, one way or the other. The short-term lines are very close to each other and the long-term lines are entangled.

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Raymond’s average correlation of 0.57 with the Niftybees is positive and strong. At this level, the stock will not replicate the Niftybees. [stockquote]NIFTYBEES[/stockquote]

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Raymond has a historical volatility in the range of 0.4 to 0.8. The scrip’s volatility is currently on a decline because of the consolidation phase the stock is undergoing.

Looking at these technicals, it appears that the stock is presently in the consolidation territory. A short-term hold is suggested. For the long-term outlook of the scrip, watch the long-term GMMA lines to surface a trend.

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