Analysis: JPASSOCIAT

Jaiprakash Associates [stockquote]JPASSOCIAT[/stockquote] has been the darling of stock market speculators for a while. The company can be best described as an infrastructure conglomerate that is into everything from mining to power production. The last couple of years hasn’t been kind to infrastructure companies in general and JP is no exception. Since Jan this year, the stock is down -29.44% compared to Nifty’s -4.53%

JPASSOCIAT technical chart

As you can see from the chart, the stock has long-term support at Rs. 60 levels (off which it bounced off recently) and resistance at Rs. 80 levels. Just yesterday, the stock saw a bullish 4×9 Cross-Over. RSI levels at mid-40s and an imminent MACD signal-line cross-over are supportive to a bullish outlook as well.

JPASSOCIAT - Jaiprakash Associates Limited - Quarterly Results

There isn’t much to write home about from a fundamental point of view. Most recent 4Q EPS is around 3.11 and it barely made it past the finish line in the Oct-Dec 2012 quarter. Dividends are meager and the stock is currently trading at a PE of around 22. It has a beta of 2.12 which is one of the highest that we track. Clearly, JPASSOCIAT is not for the faint of heart.

All said, JPASSOCIAT is good for a short-term trade. Buy it at Rs. 60 levels and sell it once it hits Rs. 80. For the long-term, wait for clarity in policy direction before making a bet on infra stocks.

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Quickie: RAJESHEXPO

Rajesh Exports [stockquote]RAJESHEXPO[/stockquote], for those of you who don’t follow the stock, is a Bangalore based company that manufactures gold & diamond jewellery for export as well as distribution to the domestic wholesale jewellery market. They also own a 75 outlet retail channel via Shubh Jewellers.

I find this stock interesting because it keeps oscillating between Rs. 120 and Rs. 150 levels. As you can see in the chart below, the stock has been sitting pretty in this channel for more than a year.

Rajesh Exports Analysis

This stock could be ideal for those who are looking for some trading action without adding on a lot of risk. With a beta of 0.72, there is not a ton of volatility here. RSI indicator is in the oversold area and the stock is testing its long-time support of Rs. 120.

From a fundamental point of view, the company has shown steady growth over the last three quarters. Gold price volatility has not been kind to the firm and there could be some impact due to that.

RAJESHEXPO - Rajesh Exports Limited - Quarterly Results

As I said earlier in the post, this could a quickie trade for investors trying to get some action that, going by the recent price action of the stock, appears low risk.

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Analysis: RELIANCE

Reliance Industries [stockquote]RELIANCE[/stockquote] has been a permanent disappointment since 2005 and this year has been no different. The stock is down 7.46% compared to the Nifty’s 5.35%. The stock just doesn’t seem to have the zing in spite of the bonus in 2009, the more than Rs. 8/share in dividends and stock buy-backs.

Reliance chart

After breaking its up-trend line, the chart shows that Reliance is headed towards its most recent support area at Rs. 770 levels. RSI at mid-20’s is basically plumbing the depths at this point – the stock has bounced whenever it has seen such dire readings. However, just about every other technical indicator is bearish. Its 18-day SMA cut the 9-day SMA; Aroon is bearish; MACD histograms are not helping either.

The company remains a cash machine. So much so that Mukesh Ambani is using to enter pretty much all sectors of the Indian economy. It looks like by the end of this decade, Reliance will be dabbling in everything from telecommunications to power to banking. So even though Reliance is classified as a petrochemical major, its undergoing a transformation into a wide winged conglomerate.

The stock, however, is not cheap. With a PE of 12.84, it is trading above other oil multinationals like Exxon (9.30) and Total (7.83). It has a sub-market beta of 0.86 which could have been good news except that its Bull & Bear betas are skewed towards the downside.

RELIANCE - Reliance Industries Limited - Quarterly Results

To conclude, we are a short-term BUY on RELIANCE. We expect a bounce off these over-sold conditions and a support at Rs. 770 levels. The long-term is a bit hazy. The company is at risk of losing focus by spreading itself too thin on vanity projects and blowing away its cash-hoard on capital intensive projects with low returns and intense competition.

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Bull Beta / Bear Beta for Stock Picking

The Beta of a stock or portfolio is a number describing the correlated volatility in relation to the volatility of an index. By definition, the market itself has a beta of 1.0, and individual stocks are ranked according to how much they deviate from the macro market. A stock with a beta of 2 has returns that change, on average, by twice the magnitude of the overall market’s returns; when the market’s return falls or rises by 3%, the stock’s return will fall or rise (respectively) by 6% on average.

The problem with a single measure of beta during all market conditions is that it might understand/overstate the risk of a stock during bull/bear phases. For example, FINPIPE [stockquote]FINPIPE[/stockquote] has a fairly benign beta of 0.68. So you would expect it to hold up pretty well during volatile markets, correct? However, with a bear beta of 1.17, it is going to tank more than the broader market and with a bull beta of just 0.007, it is not going to rise as much as the market either. So you get all of the downside without the upside. ASHOKLEY [stockquote]ASHOKLEY[/stockquote], on the other hand, has positive asymmetry with a bear beta of 0.90 and a bull beta of 1.16.

The bigger question is can this asymmetry be converted into a model for generating stock picks? Can investing in a portfolio of stocks with bull betas > 1.2 and a bear betas < 0.8 result in meaningful out-performance? We looked all the way back to Jan 2010 to pick out stocks that met this condition to see if a portfolio of these names can outperform the market. It seemed pretty legitimate at first, who wouldn’t want to own stocks that didn’t fall as much as the market when it went down but rose more than the market when it went up?

The results were a bit of a disappointment. First, the stock picks were extremely sparse. There were only 5 days during the entire period where there were more than 5 stocks that met the criteria. So there just weren’t enough data points to confirm or refute the thesis. It also didn’t help that these portfolio did not outperform the market in any meaningful way.

The Bull Beta / Bear Beta thesis needs to be further tested for different bull/bear thresholds. It is an interesting thesis and we are big fans of repeatable, verifiable and systematic portfolio strategies. Stay tuned for updates!

 

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The Great Rotation into Debt

It used be that news about increasing FII flows brought cheer to the markets. However, in spite of them bringing in close to $10.3 billion dollars since the beginning of this year, the market has been in an interminable funk.

FII Investments - IndiaMarket action doesn’t seem to concur with FII bullishness. Are FII faith misplaced? At first, the market expected a whiz-bang budget and capitulated once that turned out to be a damp squib. And now it appears that investors have latched on to the political goings on to feel depressed about.

CNX 500 Chart

Underneath it all is the exodus of domestic investors out of Equities. Since July 2012, Indian mutual funds pulled out more than $3.6 billion out of equities and piled into debt.

Domestic Investors - India

For every single month since July 2012, domestic investors have rotated out of equities and into debt to a grand total of $58.2 billion. Given the recent volatility in the stock market, it would be no surprise if domestic investors continue to herd into debt funds. The big question on my mind is how long will FII flows continue into equities if domestic investors continue to sell into them?

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