Category: Your Money

Weekly Recap: Sorry, monkeys

world.2015-07-10.2015-07-17

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) +3.16%
CAC(FRA) +4.51%
UKX(GBR) +1.52%
NKY(JPN) +4.40%
SPX(USA) +2.37%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) +0.22%
INMEX(MEX) +1.04%
NGSEINDX(NGA) -2.15%
XU030(TUR) -0.04%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) -0.77%
SHCOMP(CHN) +2.05%
NIFTY(IND) +2.98%
INDEXCF(RUS) +1.61%
TOP40(ZAF) +1.81%

Commodities

Energy
Ethanol -6.35%
Heating Oil -4.58%
Brent Crude Oil -2.84%
RBOB Gasoline -4.64%
WTI Crude Oil -3.77%
Natural Gas +4.26%
Metals
Gold 100oz -2.07%
Palladium -5.52%
Platinum -3.68%
Copper -1.57%
Silver 5000oz -5.13%

Currencies

USDEUR:+2.77% USDJPY:+1.02%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) +0.29%
USDMXN(MEX) +1.30%
USDNGN(NGA) +0.79%
USDTRY(TUR) -0.53%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) +0.60%
USDCNY(CHN) +0.00%
USDINR(IND) +0.12%
USDRUB(RUS) +1.11%
USDZAR(ZAF) -0.81%
Agricultural
Cattle -0.42%
Cocoa +1.46%
Lean Hogs -4.47%
Lumber -6.25%
Orange Juice -0.12%
Soybean Meal -1.34%
White Sugar -4.23%
Corn -1.52%
Cotton +0.08%
Feeder Cattle +1.70%
Coffee (Arabica) +3.49%
Coffee (Robusta) -2.70%
Soybeans -2.78%
Sugar #11 -3.63%
Wheat -3.44%

Credit Indices

Index Change
Markit CDX EM +0.26%
Markit CDX NA HY +0.77%
Markit CDX NA IG -5.48%
Markit iTraxx Asia ex-Japan IG -5.65%
Markit iTraxx Australia -7.09%
Markit iTraxx Europe -10.49%
Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover -48.99%
Markit iTraxx Japan -5.36%
Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe -4.75%
Markit LCDX (Loan CDS) +0.00%
Markit MCDX (Municipal CDS) -5.16%
Can we get an encore? Or are we going to start worrying about flaccid earnings and get depressed all over again?

Nifty Heatmap

CNX NIFTY.2015-07-10.2015-07-17

Index Returns

For a deeper dive into indices, check out our weekly Index Update.
index.performance.2015-07-10.2015-07-17

Sector Performance

sector performance.2015-07-10.2015-07-17

Market Cap Decile Performance

Decile Mkt. Cap. Adv/Decl
1 (micro) -3.26% 74/60
2 +3.45% 77/57
3 +5.42% 71/62
4 +4.33% 78/56
5 +3.93% 69/64
6 +3.81% 76/58
7 +3.51% 68/66
8 +4.40% 75/58
9 +2.30% 69/65
10 (mega) +3.07% 69/65
An across the board rally…

Top Winners and Losers

INFRATEL +7.56%
HINDPETRO +8.00%
TATACHEM +9.65%
SRTRANSFIN -4.36%
BAJAJHLDNG -2.82%
TITAN -1.93%
Fall in oil prices lifted OMC stocks…

ETF Performance

NIFTYBEES +3.14%
JUNIORBEES +2.72%
BANKBEES +2.63%
CPSEETF +2.38%
INFRABEES +1.33%
PSUBNKBEES -0.43%
GOLDBEES -1.56%
Large-caps dominated mid-caps. Gold hit 5-year lows in USD…

Yield Curve

yield Curve.2015-07-10.2015-07-17

Bond Indices

Sub Index Change in YTM Total Return(%)
0 5 +0.04 +0.04%
5 10 +0.05 -0.12%
10 15 +0.04 -0.16%
15 20 +0.06 -0.40%
20 30 +0.04 -0.28%
Long bonds got shellacked…

Investment Theme Performance

No Theme left behind. A broad-based rally lifted all investment strategies.

Equity Mutual Funds

Bond Mutual Funds

Thought for the weekend

Mutual fund performance is similar to the performance of stocks. As a company matures and grows, more investors become aware of it, and its share price better reflects its prospects. This explains the phenomenon of how valuations and returns of benchmark indexes for smaller companies are usually higher than larger companies. Of course, they’re also riskier.

In the case of mutual funds, impressive alpha attracts more investor money to a fund, and that makes it more difficult to produce alpha since taking larger positions in stocks is going to have a greater impact on share prices.

Source: Can active managers beat dart-throwing monkeys?

Index Update 18.07.2015

MOMENTUM

We run our proprietary momentum scoring algorithm on indices just like we do on stocks. You can use the momentum scores of sub-indices to get a sense for which sectors have the wind on their backs and those that are facing headwinds.

Traders can pick their longs in sectors with high short-term momentum and their shorts in sectors with low momentum. Investors can use the longer lookback scores to position themselves using our re-factored index Themes.

You can see how the momentum algorithm has performed on individual stocks here.

Here are the best and the worst sub-indices:

index momentum best 365 2015-07-17 png

index momentum best 50 2015-07-17 png

index momentum worst 365 2015-07-17 png

index momentum worst 50 2015-07-17 png

Relative Strength Spread

CNX_500 relative-spread-index 50 2015-07-17 png

Refactored Index Performance

50-day performance, from May 11, 2015 through July 17, 2015:

Trend Model Summary

Index Signal % From Peak Day of Peak
CNX AUTO SHORT
6.88
2015-Jan-27
CNX BANK SHORT
7.11
2015-Jan-27
CNX COMMODITIES SHORT
27.00
2008-Jan-04
CNX CONSUMPTION LONG
0.00
2015-Jul-17
CNX ENERGY SHORT
25.49
2008-Jan-14
CNX FMCG SHORT
7.71
2015-Feb-25
CNX INFRA LONG
45.57
2008-Jan-09
CNX IT LONG
88.20
2000-Feb-21
CNX MEDIA LONG
20.59
2008-Jan-04
CNX METAL LONG
59.82
2008-Jan-04
CNX MNC LONG
0.04
2015-Jul-16
CNX PHARMA LONG
5.00
2015-Apr-08
CNX PSE LONG
23.04
2008-Jan-04
CNX PSU BANK SHORT
37.11
2010-Nov-05
CNX REALTY SHORT
90.41
2008-Jan-14
CNX SERVICE LONG
6.13
2015-Mar-03
MNCs and FMCGs have recouped their drawdowns. PHARMA is not far behind. Its the old economy stocks that are still trying to digest their “India Shining” debt binge.

Correlation Update 18.07.2015

Nifty one year daily return correlations

Nifty one year daily return correlations

Nifty one month daily return correlations

Nifty one month daily return correlations

Bank Nifty one year daily return correlations

Bank Nifty one year daily return correlations

Bank Nifty one month daily return correlations

Bank Nifty one month daily return correlations

Midcap one year daily return correlations

Midcap one year daily return correlations

Midcap one month daily return correlations

Midcap one month daily return correlations

A lot of thick blue squares mean that positive correlations are high. Red squares mean negative correlations are high. Whites are the doldrums.

Relative Returns of Midcap Funds

midcap mutual fund relative returns

Relative Returns

We wanted to see how different mutual funds compared to the CNX MIDCAP index. We took the annual returns of a dozen funds and subtracted the annual returns of the CNX MIDCAP index. This gives us an idea of how well the fund was managed.

The above result is a bit surprising. Other than the ICICI Prudential Value Discovery Fund, no other fund consistently beat the CNX MIDCAP index. Of course, returns are only half the story, these numbers don’t tell us the risks that were taken to achieve them.

Besides, none of the top funds in a year hold that position over the next (see this.)

Related: Mutual Fund Performance in Bear Markets

Ten years is a long time

Yearly Nifty and Defty Returns

nifty.vs.defty.returns

When you look at the last 24 years of returns, the NIFTY gave negative returns for 8 years – 1/3rd of the time.

Holding period matters

The most frequent advice given to new equity investors is that they should at least have a 3-year horizon. The problem with this is that there have been 7 periods where cumulative 3-year returns have been negative or single digits. This sort of advice does nothing to mentally prepare the investor to stay disciplined.

nifty.defty.3.yr.returns

In fact, dollar investors (NRIs, etc.) have had it rougher.

nifty.defty.5.yr.returns

It is only when you look at 7-years and beyond that you start seeing the kind of returns that begin to make sense.

nifty.defty.7.yr.returns

nifty.defty.10.yr.returns

Long-term portfolio but short-term horizon

Very often, advisors set up portfolios looking at this:

nifty.defty.15.yr.returns

Whereas the media is feeding the investor this:

CNX NIFTY.2015-07-15

Long-term investing works if you have the discipline to ignore portfolio returns over very long time horizons. But how many of us have the discipline to stay the course over decades?