Category: Your Money

Momentum and fades

There are two kinds of moves in the market: defined and undefined. The defined moves have a reason attached to them. It can be a news about the company, a new product launch, a good earning postings or a good news for the industry itself. The undefined moves are… well.. they are just undefined.These undefined moves happen usually because of their momentum. A series of up-days keep pushing the stock up everyday.

The stock rises until it has the momentum going on its side, and once it stops, this is how it falls.

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The trend can be your friend… until the momentum ends.

When you go chasing momentum, don’t forget your faithful friend: the trailing stop loss. Unlike the usual stop-loss that you might set while placing your trades, these stop losses are calculated using highs and lows of a defined period and keep your losses at a minimum based on the recent highs.These are best suited for momentum scrips since they are not set to a particular price, unlike the normal stop losses, and automatically locks-in a profit once the momentum fades.

So, next time you want to trade with a momentum stock, be sure to have a trailing stop loss in place. This will be useful not only in minimizing your losses, but also in securing the profits that you have made over the holding period if used properly.

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Analysis: INFY

Today’s pick is [stockquote]INFY[/stockquote]. Even though the stock has experienced a high of 3000 and a low of 2150 during the last 12 months, it is still trading at roughly the same price as it was a year ago.

The stock has seen two drastic gap downs over the last 7 months. The up-trend since mid-July saw a tip-off near 2600 levels which might act as a near-term resistance level.

Looking at the chart for the last 2 months, a head and shoulder top might seem to be in formation if the current up-trend stalls and take a turn around 2450 levels on higher volumes.

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Oscillators RSI and CMO are at currently at 39 and -30. At this level of RSI, the stock has still got around 15 points to reach oversold levels. The CMO will also take time to reach the oversold side. These technicals are not giving out any signal currently.

MACD line and signal line are closing in towards each other and histogram levels are dropping off as well. The behavior of histogram (a decreasing slope) can act as an early signal of the imminent short-term up-trend.

The GMMA chart for the long term signal is suggesting a change in direction (uptrend since July) for the scrip. The short term lines are moving up again suggesting an up-trend after the last fall. A penetration of the short term lines with good volumes can bring about the up-trend for the stock.

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Infosys’s average correlation of 0.53 with the Niftybees is positive but not very strong. At this level the movements of the stock will not be of the same magnitude as Niftybees. [stockquote]NIFTYBEES[/stockquote]

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Infosys has a historical volatility in the range of 0.2 to 0.6. The current volatility is is a result of the EMKAY trades and it should not be a cause of concern.

Looking at these technicals, it appears that the stock is presently nearing oversold territory. A short term buy would be a good idea but for the long term you might want to wait and watch until those long term lines of GMMA dis-entangle themselves to take a stand.

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Weekly Recap

NIFTY.2012-10-15.2012-10-19

The NIFTY ended on a negative tone, drifting down -0.52% for the week.
Biggest losers were ACC (-6.02%), DLF (-5.78%) and GAIL (-5.11%).
And the biggest winners were AXISBANK (+7.37%), ITC (+4.94%) and HCLTECH (+4.07%).
Decliners eclipsed advancers 28 vs 22
fii.2012-10-15.2012-10-19Gold: +0.03%, Banks: +1.94%. Infrastructure: -0.45%,
Net FII flows for the week: $138.48 mm (Equity) and $183.68 mm (Debt)
Net domestic institutional flows for the week: $80.80 mm (Equity) and $856.20 mm (Debt)

Daily news summaries are here.

Analysis: DLF

Today’s pick is [stockquote]DLF[/stockquote]. Even though the stock experienced a strong uptrend around June, it is still trading at roughly the same price as it was a year ago. 

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Oscillators RSI and CMO are at currently at 40 and -39. At this level of RSI, the stock is at oversold levels (according to the historical RSI levels). The CMO is closing in towards the oversold side. Both the technicals are showing a buy signal.

MACD line and signal line are drifting apart from each other and histogram levels are fairly stagnant. The behavior of histogram (a decreasing slope) can act as an early signal of the imminent short-term up-trend.

The GMMA chart is just too messy. The long-term lines are moving close to each other (signaling a probable change of previous trend) and the decreasing separation in the short term lines suggest that the traders should be on a lookout for a spike in volatility in the near-term.

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DLF’s average correlation of 0.71 with the Niftybees proves to be a strong and positive correlation. At this level the movements of the stock will be of the similar magnitude as Niftybees. [stockquote]NIFTYBEES[/stockquote]

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DLF has a historical volatility in the range of 0.4 to 0.9. The volatility is currently in the middle range and currently should not be a matter of concern to the traders.

Looking at these technicals, it appears that the stock is presently nearing oversold territory. A short term buy would be a good idea but for the long term you might want to be on your back foot. Resistance levels are around Rs. 240 (Rs. 260 long-term) and a very strong support is visible around 180 levels.

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