Invest Without Emotions
The NIFTY ended on a bullish note, shooting up +1.83% for the week.
Biggest losers were ITC (-2.42%), LUPIN (-1.47%) and SUNPHARMA (-0.59%).
And the biggest winners were PNB (+7.76%), ONGC (+7.15%) and BHEL (+6.73%).
Advancers lead decliners 44 vs 6
Gold: -0.43%, Banks: +7.15%. Infrastructure: -0.42%,
Net FII flows for the week: $729.04 mm (Equity) and $250.34 mm (Debt)
Today’s pick is MUTHOOTFIN [stockquote]MUTHOOTFIN[/stockquote]. The stock began 2012 with a small uptrend, which ended very quickly after seeing highs of Rs. 180. The downwards movement that followed lasted till September. The stock has since been on an up-trend and touched its 52-week high just yesterday. In the last three months, the stock has moved +26% vs. +5% of the Nifty’s.
Oscillators RSI and CMO are closing towards the over-bought territory. The short-term technical flashed a 4×9 Bullish cross-over for the scrip.
The MACD line has just penetrated the signal line from below to give out a bullish signal. The long-term GMMA lines are experiencing expansion which suggests an upward movement to the stock for a longer term horizon.
MUTHOOTFIN’s average correlation with the Nifty is Zero. The scrip will be not be replicating the movement of Nifty. [stockquote]NIFTYBEES[/stockquote]
MUTHOOTFIN has a historical volatility in the range of 0.4 to 1.0. The scrip’s volatility currently is in the middle of the range.
Given these technicals, we suggest a short-term and a long-term BUY for the scrip. With trailing stop-losses in place traders can book profits if a trend-reversal were to take place.
Disclaimer: The analyst holds this stock in his portfolio.
Today’s pick is IDFC [stockquote]IDFC[/stockquote]. The stock began 2012 with an uptrend which ended around mid-March after testing resistance around Rs. 150. This was then followed by a correction to Rs. 120 in June with a double-bottom formation. The stock has since risen to its 52-week high of Rs. 180 and has been trying to break free of that level since December. In the last three months, the stock has moved +9% vs. +5% of the Nifty’s.
Oscillators RSI and CMO are in no-man’s land. Also, the short-term technical flashed a 4×9 and a 4×18 Bullish cross-over for the scrip yesterday.
The MACD line and the signal line have been moving close to each other, with the stable histogram levels, indicating no particular bias. However, long-term GMMA lines are experiencing expansion which suggests an upward movement for the stock.
IDFC’s average correlation with the Nifty is 0.72 is positive and quite strong. The scrip will be replicating the movement of Nifty closely. [stockquote]NIFTYBEES[/stockquote]
IDFC has a historical volatility in the range of 0.4 to 0.8. The scrip’s volatility currently is in the lowest part of the range.
To conclude given these technicals, we suggest a short-term and long-term BUY. Although, the long-term trend could lose strength on account of divergences that are visible in technicals. Trade this with a trailing-stop-loss in place so that you can book profits when the reversal takes place.
Today’s pick is MARUTI [stockquote]MARUTI[/stockquote]. The stock began 2012 with an uptrend, which ended around mid-April after a series of resistance around Rs. 1,400 levels. This was then followed by a correction to Rs. 1,100 levels till August. The stock has since been on an up-trend and has undergone a flag formation around its 52-week high levels of Rs. 1,539 since the last 6 weeks. In the last three months, the stock has moved +10% vs. +5% of the Nifty’s.
Oscillators RSI and CMO are in no-man’s land. Also, the short-term technical flashed a 4×18 Bullish cross-over for the scrip yesterday.
The MACD line and the signal line have been moving close to each other, accompanied with the stable histogram levels. Also, long-term GMMA lines are experiencing a contraction which does not suggest any direction to the stock in the near term.
MARUTI’s average correlation with the Nifty is 0.47 is positive. The scrip will be replicating the movement of Nifty. [stockquote]NIFTYBEES[/stockquote]
MARUTI has a historical volatility in the range of 0.3 to 0.7. The scrip’s volatility currently is in the lowest part of the range.
To conclude, the stock is undergoing a consolidation phase, and given these technicals, a short-term HOLD is suggested. The long-term direction would be decided based on the bearish or bullish breakout of the current flag.
Today’s pick is BHARTIARTL [stockquote]BHARTIARTL[/stockquote]. The stock began 2012 with a nick of an uptrend, which ended with the stock touching its 52-week high of Rs. 400 in February. This was then followed by a correction to Rs. 250 levels seen in September. The stock has since been on an up-trend. In the last three months, the stock has moved +18% vs. +4% of the Nifty’s.
Oscillators RSI and CMO are in no-man’s land. However, the short-term technical flashed a 4×18 bullish cross-over for the scrip yesterday followed by a long-term golden cross on the 28th of December giving a prominent bullish sign for the scrip.
The MACD line that just started moving up towards the signal line, along with the rise in histogram levels, is suggesting an imminent bullish move. Also, long-term GMMA lines are experiencing an expansion giving out a bullish signal for the scrip.
BHARTIARTL’s average correlation with the Nifty is 0.48 is positive. The scrip will be replicating the movement of Nifty. [stockquote]NIFTYBEES[/stockquote]
BHARTIARTL has a historical volatility in the range of 0.4 to 0.7. The scrip’s volatility currently is in the middle of the range.
To conclude, given these technicals, the stock is both a short-term and long-term BUY.
