Category: Your Money

Theme: Acceleration Update 04.04.2016

held since returns (%)
TRIVENI
2015-Dec-01
+39.34
VIVIMEDLAB
2016-Jan-01
-4.57
MOREPENLAB
2016-Jan-01
-27.53
FIEMIND
2016-Feb-02
+17.31
TVTODAY
2016-Feb-02
+1.00
TVSMOTOR
2016-Feb-02
+8.66
ORIENTABRA
2016-Feb-02
+2.08
HFCL
2016-Feb-02
-20.97
MINDAIND
2016-Mar-02
+19.07
TRF
2016-Mar-02
+16.40
VAKRANGEE
2016-Mar-02
-9.44
INFINITE
2016-Mar-02
+3.67
KPIT
2016-Mar-02
+7.57
ASHAPURMIN
2016-Mar-02
+0.91
HDIL
2016-Mar-02
+13.27
BODALCHEM
2016-Mar-02
+34.59
RPOWER
2016-Mar-02
+9.06
MANAPPURAM
2016-Mar-02
+10.74
IFCI
2016-Mar-02
+7.17
RTNPOWER
2016-Mar-02
+3.03
Since the last rebalance on 2016-Mar-02 till 2016-Apr-01, this strategy has returned +8.86%

You can find more details about the Acceleration Theme here.

Theme: Velocity Update 04.04.2016

held since returns (%)
GAYAPROJ
2015-Sep-04
+27.71
SANGAMIND
2015-Sep-04
+11.09
8KMILES
2015-Oct-06
+10.64
RAJESHEXPO
2015-Dec-01
-12.08
COSMOFILMS
2015-Dec-01
+7.29
NILKAMAL
2016-Jan-01
-11.03
KWALITY
2016-Jan-01
-15.69
ICIL
2016-Feb-02
-7.47
GMBREW
2016-Feb-02
+18.97
DISHMAN
2016-Feb-02
-1.20
HIMATSEIDE
2016-Feb-02
-1.57
NIITLTD
2016-Feb-02
-1.13
GENUSPOWER
2016-Feb-02
-8.10
TRIDENT
2016-Feb-02
-3.93
TRIVENI
2016-Feb-02
+9.36
JUBILANT
2016-Mar-02
+24.80
RUSHIL
2016-Mar-02
-33.72
VAKRANGEE
2016-Mar-02
-9.44
CHENNPETRO
2016-Mar-02
+12.17
FCEL
2016-Mar-02
-6.62
Since the last rebalance on 2016-Mar-02 till 2016-Apr-01, this strategy has returned +6.52%

You can find more details about the Velocity Theme here.

Theme: Momentum Update 04.04.2016

held since returns (%)
SANGAMIND
2015-Sep-07
+14.87
NAVINFLUOR
2015-Dec-01
-8.90
8KMILES
2015-Dec-01
+10.09
RAJESHEXPO
2015-Dec-01
-12.27
KWALITY
2016-Jan-01
-16.69
MOREPENLAB
2016-Jan-01
-28.62
NILKAMAL
2016-Feb-02
-14.98
ICIL
2016-Feb-02
-7.74
GMBREW
2016-Feb-02
+18.41
COSMOFILMS
2016-Feb-02
+7.29
NDL
2016-Feb-02
-13.72
AEGISCHEM
2016-Feb-02
-0.10
MIC
2016-Feb-02
-10.63
WELSPUNIND
2016-Mar-02
+14.48
GAYAPROJ
2016-Mar-02
-12.90
JINDALPOLY
2016-Mar-02
+5.31
DISHMAN
2016-Mar-02
+0.59
JUBILANT
2016-Mar-02
+25.13
RUSHIL
2016-Mar-02
-34.70
CHENNPETRO
2016-Mar-02
+11.32
Since the last rebalance on 2016-Mar-02 till 2016-Apr-01, this strategy has returned +5.61%

You can find more details about the Momentum Theme here.

March Madness 2016

world.2016-02-29.2016-03-31

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) +3.33%
CAC(FRA) -1.04%
UKX(GBR) +0.09%
NKY(JPN) +0.86%
SPX(USA) +5.44%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) +1.51%
INMEX(MEX) +5.97%
NGSEINDX(NGA) +2.95%
XU030(TUR) +9.00%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) +16.69%
SHCOMP(CHN) +11.96%
NIFTY(IND) +10.39%
INDEXCF(RUS) +0.37%
TOP40(ZAF) +4.08%

Commodities

Energy
Brent Crude Oil +10.30%
Ethanol +4.44%
Heating Oil +8.39%
RBOB Gasoline +38.22%
Natural Gas +13.84%
WTI Crude Oil +11.73%
Metals
Palladium +15.93%
Copper +2.35%
Gold 100oz -0.06%
Silver 5000oz +4.73%
Platinum +5.15%

Currencies

USDEUR:-4.70% USDJPY:-0.63%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) -1.56%
USDMXN(MEX) -4.16%
USDNGN(NGA) +0.00%
USDTRY(TUR) -4.86%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) -9.97%
USDCNY(CHN) -1.35%
USDINR(IND) -3.18%
USDRUB(RUS) -9.94%
USDZAR(ZAF) -7.24%
Agricultural
Cocoa -2.75%
Feeder Cattle -0.55%
White Sugar +8.29%
Cattle -4.71%
Coffee (Robusta) +9.77%
Corn -1.27%
Lumber +21.75%
Orange Juice +17.57%
Sugar #11 +4.72%
Coffee (Arabica) +11.78%
Cotton +2.76%
Soybeans +7.00%
Lean Hogs -2.05%
Soybean Meal +4.55%
Wheat +5.96%

Credit Indices

Index Change
Markit CDX EM +2.89%
Markit CDX NA HY +3.28%
Markit CDX NA IG -27.66%
Markit iTraxx Asia ex-Japan IG -6.67%
Markit iTraxx Australia -15.03%
Markit iTraxx Europe -26.80%
Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover -98.68%
Markit iTraxx Japan -9.45%
Markit MCDX (Municipal CDS) -14.58%
Markets rebounded with the Fed assuming the role of the world’s central bank…

International ETFs (USD)

global.etf.performance.2016-02-29.2016-03-31

Nifty Heatmap

NIFTY 50.2016-02-29.2016-03-31

Index Returns

index.performance.2016-02-29.2016-03-31

Market Cap Decile Performance

Decile Mkt. Cap. Adv/Decl
1 (micro) +0.54% 70/61
2 +9.38% 82/48
3 +10.53% 91/39
4 +9.03% 82/48
5 +7.85% 84/46
6 +6.78% 85/45
7 +10.83% 83/47
8 +7.10% 83/47
9 +12.46% 81/49
10 (mega) +1.97% 74/57

Top Winners and Losers

TATAMOTORS +29.00%
RELINFRA +30.19%
CAIRN +30.44%
LUPIN -15.69%
APOLLOHOSP -9.19%
COALINDIA -6.13%
Dash for trash?

ETF Performance

PSUBNKBEES +19.47%
BANKBEES +15.43%
INFRABEES +12.76%
NIFTYBEES +11.70%
JUNIORBEES +9.02%
CPSEETF +8.08%
GOLDBEES -3.22%
With bank balance-sheet clean up in full swing, banks got the better bid…

Yield Curve

yieldCurve.2016-02-29.2016-03-31

Bond Indices

Sub Index Change in YTM Total Return(%)
0 5 -0.22 +1.22%
5 10 -0.24 +1.91%
10 15 -0.30 +2.56%
15 20 -0.35 +3.94%
20 30 -0.37 +4.59%
Rate cut already factored in?

Investment Theme Performance

The worst hit asset classes saw the steepest rebound…

Equity Mutual Funds

Bond Mutual Funds

Thought to sum up the month

Why do amateurs believe they can outperform the professionals — or even identify those pros who will outperform? (Performance of individual mutual funds cannot be predicted with any greater degree of accuracy than individual stocks or bonds.)

  1. Overconfidence
  2. Optimism Bias
  3. Hindsight Bias
  4. Attribution Bias
  5. Confirmation Bias

Source: Why We Think We’re Better Investors Than We Are

Monthly Recap: Winter

world.2016-01-29.2016-02-29

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) -3.09%
CAC(FRA) -1.44%
UKX(GBR) +0.22%
NKY(JPN) -9.14%
SPX(USA) +0.40%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) +3.52%
INMEX(MEX) +2.41%
NGSEINDX(NGA) +2.74%
XU030(TUR) +3.56%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) +6.39%
SHCOMP(CHN) -1.50%
NIFTY(IND) -7.62%
INDEXCF(RUS) +3.10%
TOP40(ZAF) -0.60%

Commodities

Energy
Brent Crude Oil +5.42%
RBOB Gasoline +20.16%
WTI Crude Oil +0.57%
Ethanol -2.68%
Heating Oil +3.61%
Natural Gas -25.63%
Metals
Copper +1.94%
Palladium +0.74%
Platinum +7.21%
Gold 100oz +11.54%
Silver 5000oz +4.93%

Currencies

USDEUR:-0.50% USDJPY:-7.25%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) -2.92%
USDMXN(MEX) +0.11%
USDNGN(NGA) +0.10%
USDTRY(TUR) +0.22%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) +0.07%
USDCNY(CHN) -0.53%
USDINR(IND) +0.93%
USDRUB(RUS) -0.89%
USDZAR(ZAF) -0.25%
Agricultural
Cattle +3.18%
Feeder Cattle +1.22%
Lean Hogs +6.19%
White Sugar +0.02%
Coffee (Robusta) +0.51%
Corn -4.78%
Lumber +5.88%
Soybeans -2.98%
Wheat -6.37%
Cocoa +10.09%
Cotton -4.85%
Coffee (Arabica) -3.26%
Orange Juice -9.50%
Soybean Meal -4.92%
Sugar #11 +9.12%

Credit Indices

Index Change
Markit CDX EM +0.27%
Markit CDX NA HY -0.58%
Markit CDX NA IG +7.19%
Markit iTraxx Asia ex-Japan IG +5.66%
Markit iTraxx Australia +15.41%
Markit iTraxx Europe +9.54%
Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover +45.82%
Markit iTraxx Japan +12.00%
Markit MCDX (Municipal CDS) +3.25%
Jan and Feb saw a wave of volatility hit pretty much every asset class. Diversification provided scant protection in wave-after-wave of selling across world markets and asset classes. Hopefully the great purge is done and we can look forward to better days ahead…

International ETFs (USD)

global.etf.performance.2016-01-29.2016-02-29

Nifty Heatmap

NIFTY 50.2016-01-29.2016-02-29

Index Returns

index.performance.2016-01-29.2016-02-29

Market Cap Decile Performance

Decile Mkt. Cap. Adv/Decl
1 (micro) -22.65% 46/80
2 -19.11% 29/96
3 -20.26% 31/95
4 -17.46% 30/95
5 -16.40% 31/95
6 -15.09% 37/88
7 -12.49% 42/84
8 -12.19% 34/91
9 -11.15% 50/76
10 (mega) -6.23% 63/63
Mid- small- and micro-caps bore the brunt…

Top Winners and Losers

MARICO +6.81%
BHARTIARTL +8.83%
EICHERMOT +14.23%
BHEL -34.50%
PNB -22.23%
AUROPHARMA -21.41%
Eicher Motors emerged a big winner…

ETF Performance

GOLDBEES +9.31%
JUNIORBEES -6.73%
INFRABEES -6.80%
NIFTYBEES -7.07%
CPSEETF -9.72%
BANKBEES -9.83%
PSUBNKBEES -11.21%
Gold. Enuf said.

Yield Curve

yieldCurve.2016-01-29.2016-02-29

Bond Indices

Sub Index Change in YTM Total Return(%)
0 5 +0.14 +0.28%
5 10 +0.12 +0.02%
10 15 +0.15 -0.42%
15 20 +0.12 -0.41%
20 30 +0.11 -0.38%
Long bonds got shellacked…

Investment Theme Performance

Equity Mutual Funds

Bond Mutual Funds

Fund flows

FIIs sold out of both equities and bonds…

fii-investments.2014-01-01.2016-02-29

dii-investments.2014-01-01.2016-02-29

Bonds

The spread between 10-year US treasuries and Indian gilts are at levels seen in late 2013…
ust-ind-10yr-spread.2011-01-18

… and all is not hunky-dory in the US bond markets either. The spread between 10yrs and 2yrs are at their lowest since 2008…
ust-yield-curve.2s10s

… and the whole yield curve shifted down in February.
ust-yield-curve.2011-01-18

Thoughts

As we hit ‘publish’ on this article, Indian markets are enjoying a post-budget rally. Did markets find a bottom in February? Or is more pain to come? Bring on the March madness!