Author: shyam

Weekly Recap: How Mobile disrupted Airfreight

world.2015-05-15.2015-05-22

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) +3.21%
CAC(FRA) +2.99%
UKX(GBR) +1.02%
NKY(JPN) +2.69%
SPX(USA) +0.34%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) +1.68%
INMEX(MEX) -0.92%
NGSEINDX(NGA) -0.49%
XU030(TUR) -2.35%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) -5.07%
SHCOMP(CHN) +8.10%
NIFTY(IND) +2.38%
INDEXCF(RUS) -1.53%
TOP40(ZAF) -0.10%

Commodities

Energy
Ethanol -6.26%
WTI Crude Oil +0.69%
Heating Oil -2.32%
Natural Gas -4.60%
RBOB Gasoline +0.78%
Brent Crude Oil -1.96%
Metals
Gold 100oz -0.95%
Palladium -1.45%
Platinum -1.95%
Copper -4.41%
Silver 5000oz -2.29%

Currencies

USDEUR:+3.96% USDJPY:+1.85%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) +0.57%
USDMXN(MEX) +1.67%
USDNGN(NGA) +0.76%
USDTRY(TUR) +0.86%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) +3.75%
USDCNY(CHN) -0.15%
USDINR(IND) +0.01%
USDRUB(RUS) +1.27%
USDZAR(ZAF) +1.00%
Agricultural
Feeder Cattle +0.59%
Orange Juice +5.82%
Soybean Meal +0.30%
Soybeans -2.83%
Sugar #11 -4.12%
Wheat +0.98%
White Sugar -4.33%
Cattle -0.21%
Cocoa +2.18%
Coffee (Arabica) -7.87%
Coffee (Robusta) -3.06%
Corn -1.37%
Cotton -5.07%
Lumber +14.50%
Lean Hogs +0.66%

Credit Indices

Index Change
Markit CDX EM +0.21%
Markit CDX NA HY -0.07%
Markit CDX NA IG +0.44%
Markit iTraxx Asia ex-Japan IG -3.17%
Markit iTraxx Australia -0.76%
Markit iTraxx Europe -0.88%
Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover -6.29%
Markit iTraxx Japan -1.17%
Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe -0.04%
Markit LCDX (Loan CDS) +0.00%
Markit MCDX (Municipal CDS) +1.77%
A moment of silence to whoever shorted the market thinking the NIFTY will go to 7600. May your capital rest in peace.

Nifty Heatmap

CNX NIFTY.2015-05-15.2015-05-22

Index Returns

For a deeper dive into indices, check out our weekly Index Update.
index performance.2015-05-15.2015-05-22

Sector Performance

sector performance.2015-05-15.2015-05-22

Advance Decline

advance.decline.line2.2015-05-15.2015-05-22

Market Cap Decile Performance

Decile Mkt. Cap. Adv/Decl
1 (micro) -1.51% 66/62
2 -0.05% 69/59
3 +2.14% 76/51
4 +2.33% 73/55
5 +2.22% 72/55
6 +1.23% 69/59
7 +2.07% 62/66
8 +2.42% 68/59
9 +1.44% 68/60
10 (mega) +2.14% 61/67
Ob-La-Di, Ob-La-Da…

Top Winners and Losers

ADANIENT +7.59%
HCLTECH +7.69%
TECHM +7.88%
TATASTEEL -6.26%
BHARATFORG -3.69%
OIL -3.58%
Tech broke through disappointing results while investors were served a reminder of the problems plaguing old-economy stocks…

ETF Performance

CPSEETF +1.97%
NIFTYBEES +1.73%
JUNIORBEES +1.66%
INFRABEES +1.05%
BANKBEES +0.98%
PSUBNKBEES -0.66%
GOLDBEES -0.91%
Look at the divergence between BANKBEES and PSUBNKBEES…

Yield Curve

yield Curve.2015-05-15.2015-05-22

Bond Indices

Sub Index Change in YTM Total Return(%)
GSEC TB -0.18 +0.20%
GSEC SUB 1-3 -0.01 +0.33%
GSEC SUB 3-8 -0.04 +0.42%
GSEC SUB 8 -0.04 +0.56%
Lower inflation + tepid economy = rate cut?

Investment Theme Performance

Equity Mutual Funds

Bond Mutual Funds

Thought for the weekend

From the mid-1980’s when PC’s and other hi-tech products first started being assembled in Asia, in places like Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore, Thailand and Malaysia, through 2010, after China had achieved the dominant manufacturing position it holds, the airfreight markets became increasingly reliant on the market for getting hi-tech goods built and assembled in Asia to North America and also to Europe.

The iPads and other Android-based and Windows-devices both usurped and combined many of the functions previously reserved for the PC platform or other dedicated electronic devices. Emerging from the Great Recession, these increasingly smaller, more powerful, alternative devices with their myriads of “apps” began to offer multiple capabilities on one platform that delivered capabilities which had previously taken multiple devices to deliver. This factor also significantly changed the dynamics of the airfreight markets.

Source: Avondale Asset Management

Practical Momentum – Conclusion

Recap

We began the exploration of a practical way to execute momentum using derivatives. We found that:

  1. A lookback period of one year works best (Part I)
  2. Because of survivorship bias, long-short underperforms long-only (Part II)
  3. Hedging with single-name put options doesn’t work(Part III)
  4. Larger long-only portfolios have smaller drawdowns and better performance than smaller long-only portfolios (Part III)

Conclusion

The way things stand, Momentum is best executed using a broad basket of stocks. There is no mechanical way to maintain a momentum driven derivative portfolio. You can explore long-only equity momentum here.

Practical Momentum Part III – Hedging

Introduction

In Part II of our Practical Momentum series, we saw how adding a volatility adjustment significantly improved portfolio returns. However, we were left with a nagging observation that long-only returns were much higher than long-short returns. The problem with a long-only futures portfolio is that draw-downs can wipe you out. But what if we hedged the portfolio?

You can hedge a portfolio in two ways: (a) buy individual put options, and (b) calculate the beta of the portfolio and short an appropriate multiple of NIFTY futures. The problem with option (b) is that it will not protect you against idiosyncratic risk. For example, say you are long a pharma stock and the USFDA issues an import alert, the stock will tank irrespective of the NIFTY. So for the purposes of this simulation, we will try option (a)

Hedged Long-Only Momentum

With 5 long-futures hedged with long put-options below the purchase price:

black line shows long-only; red shows hedged long-only

hedged.momentum

A portfolio hedged with single-name put options performs poorly:

  • There is always a d between the option payout and the underlying
  • ?-decay eats away more of the option value than the protection it offers

Another way to make draw-downs shallower is to diversify. When we increased the number of stocks in our long-only equity momentum portfolio from 10 to 20, it reduced portfolio volatility and boosted returns. Here’s how a 10-count long-only momentum portfolio compares with the 5 from above:

black line shows a 5-item long-only portfolio returns; red shows 10
five10.momentum

Conclusion

The problem with leveraged momentum is that losses can wipe you out. Hedging it with single-name options doesn’t work. Are we stuck with unlevered momentum? We will explore this in the next post. Stay tuned!

Practical Momentum, Part II – Volatility Adjustment

Introduction

Previously, we ran back-tests on long-only and long-short momentum algorithm over a couple of look-back periods. We found that (a) momentum with a one-year look-back period out-performed one with a 100-day look-back, and (b) a long-only portfolio significantly out-performed a long-short portfolio. We hypothesize that this is probably because the universe of stocks that we are forced to consider was heavily plucked. But what if we added a volatility metric into the mix to smooth out draw-downs?

Long-only Momentum

First, lets take a look at the long-only portfolio; both with a one-year look-back:

The red line is the volatility adjusted momentum; black is naive momentum; and green is buy & hold Nifty
long-only-momentum.volatility.2005-2010

long-only-momentum.volatility.2011-2014.

By year:

long-only-momentum2
Adding volatility into the mix did nothing to drawdowns but boosted returns considerably – with volatility adjusted momentum out-performing the naive version in 7 out of 10 years.

Long-short Momentum

Long-short ended up under-performing long-only once again:

The red line is long-short momentum; black is long-only momentum; and green is buy & hold Nifty
long-short-momentum.volatility.2005-2010

long-short-momentum.volatility.2011-2014

By year:

long-short-momentum2

Conclusion

Over the long run, long-only momentum with volatility adjustment outperformed the long-short version. However, while long-only tanked with the rest of the market in 2008, long-short was in the green. So if you are one of those guys who ask “how did this strategy perform in 2008?” Well, it performed pretty well. But would you have stuck by it when it got shellacked in 2013?

The problem with steep drawdowns is that it makes implementing the strategy with derivatives or leverage difficult. Margin calls might force you to abandon the strategy just before it turns. Next, we will explore a hedged long-only momentum strategy. Stay tuned!

Weekly Recap: Discipline > Motivation

world.2015-05-08.2015-05-15

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) -2.24%
CAC(FRA) -1.90%
UKX(GBR) -1.23%
NKY(JPN) +1.83%
SPX(USA) +0.43%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) +0.87%
INMEX(MEX) +0.56%
NGSEINDX(NGA) +0.15%
XU030(TUR) +4.55%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) +0.50%
SHCOMP(CHN) +2.44%
NIFTY(IND) +0.86%
INDEXCF(RUS) -1.00%
TOP40(ZAF) +0.46%

Commodities

Energy
Heating Oil +2.84%
Natural Gas +5.05%
Brent Crude Oil +2.55%
Ethanol +1.51%
RBOB Gasoline +3.42%
WTI Crude Oil +1.20%
Metals
Palladium -0.93%
Platinum +2.16%
Copper +0.68%
Gold 100oz +3.18%
Silver 5000oz +6.71%

Currencies

USDEUR:-2.16% USDJPY:-0.45%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) -0.28%
USDMXN(MEX) -0.89%
USDNGN(NGA) -0.82%
USDTRY(TUR) -4.46%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) +0.33%
USDCNY(CHN) -0.05%
USDINR(IND) -0.66%
USDRUB(RUS) -2.79%
USDZAR(ZAF) -1.12%
Agricultural
Feeder Cattle +1.40%
Lumber +1.75%
Soybean Meal -3.65%
Soybeans -3.18%
Sugar #11 -3.45%
Cattle +0.69%
Cocoa +4.19%
Coffee (Arabica) +4.51%
Coffee (Robusta) -0.82%
Corn +1.74%
Cotton +0.77%
Wheat +9.13%
White Sugar -3.70%
Lean Hogs +2.88%
Orange Juice -1.46%

Credit Indices

Index Change
Markit CDX EM +0.26%
Markit CDX NA HY +0.04%
Markit CDX NA IG -0.31%
Markit iTraxx Asia ex-Japan IG -1.75%
Markit iTraxx Australia -1.61%
Markit iTraxx Europe -0.96%
Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover +2.25%
Markit iTraxx Japan -1.42%
Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe -0.36%
Markit LCDX (Loan CDS) -0.05%
Markit MCDX (Municipal CDS) +2.36%
The S&P 500 made new highs – probably because rate hikes are now getting pushed back to 2016 given the sorry state of the US economy.

However, bond yields elsewhere surged higher on increasing optimism about the prospects for global economic growth. And yields may keep climbing as easy foreign central bank policies raise expectations for growth and inflation. (Schwab)

Expect more volatility ahead.

Nifty Heatmap

CNX NIFTY.2015-05-08.2015-05-15

Index Returns

For a deeper dive into indices, check out our weekly Index Update.
index performance.2015-05-08.2015-05-15

Sector Performance

sector performance.2015-05-08.2015-05-15

Advance Decline

advance.decline.line2.2015-05-08.2015-05-15

Market Cap Decile Performance

Decile Mkt. Cap. Adv/Decl
1 (micro) -3.11% 63/63
2 +2.40% 64/65
3 +3.08% 63/64
4 +3.44% 67/61
5 +4.35% 71/56
6 +3.88% 74/54
7 +2.57% 65/63
8 +2.44% 68/59
9 +3.13% 65/63
10 (mega) +3.67% 65/63
Green across the board. Hopefully this marks a turning point in the markets…

Top Winners and Losers

MCDOWELL-N +11.86%
EICHERMOT +18.64%
UNIONBANK +23.06%
HINDUNILVR -5.63%
LUPIN -4.86%
NTPC -4.15%
Eicher Motor reminded investors that it still had a whole clip of silver bullets left…

ETF Performance

PSUBNKBEES +7.07%
JUNIORBEES +4.43%
BANKBEES +2.76%
CPSEETF +2.14%
GOLDBEES +1.72%
NIFTYBEES +1.41%
INFRABEES +0.36%
PSU banks staged a surprise snap-back rally after being beaten to a pulp over the last couple of months. Will it sustain?

Yield Curve

yieldCurve.2015-05-08.2015-05-15

Bond Indices

Sub Index Change in YTM Total Return(%)
GSEC TB +1.23 -0.22%
GSEC SUB 1-3 +1.04 -1.65%
GSEC SUB 3-8 +0.61 -2.63%
GSEC SUB 8 +0.42 -3.37%
Indian bonds sold off, following the bond carnage in Europe…

Investment Theme Performance

Equity Mutual Funds

Bond Mutual Funds

Thought for the weekend

Motivation, broadly speaking, operates on the erroneous assumption that a particular mental or emotional state is necessary to complete a task.

Discipline, by contrast, separates outwards functioning from moods and feelings and thereby ironically circumvents the problem by consistently improving them.

You don’t wait until you’re in olympic form to start training. You train to get into olympic form.

Source: Screw motivation, what you need is discipline.