Author: Abhishek

Analysis: TATACOMM (TCL)

Today’s pick is TATACOMM [stockquote]TATACOMM[/stockquote]. After an initial uptrend that lasted until February, the stock collapsed towards Rs. 200 levels. Testing it a couple of times times through July, the stock tried moving up but met with resistance around 260 levels and has been trading between Rs. 220 to Rs. 260 range since. In the last three months, the stock is down –7% against 8% rise of the Nifty’s.

TATACOMM technical chart

Oscillators RSI and CMO are nearing towards the over-sold territory. But they still have to cover some distance before they give any bullish sign.

The MACD line and the signal line are moving very close to each other, making it very unclear as to what might be in store for the stock for the short term.

The long-term GMMA and the short-term GMMA lines are also unable to give any directional suggestion as they are not well dispersed. Also, the 9×18 technical gave a near term bearish sign for the scrip just last week.

TATACOMM correlation chart

TATACOMM’s average correlation of -0.13 with the Nifty is negative. The stock will not be replicating the movements of Nifty given a negative correlation co-efficient. [stockquote]NIFTYBEES[/stockquote]

TATACOMM volatility chart

TATACOMM has a historical volatility in the range of 0.4 to 1.2. However in the last few years it has been in the 0.4 – 0.8 range. The scrip’s volatility currently is in the lower range.

TATACOMM analyst recommendations

Analysts have given an underperform rating to the scrip based on its expected earnings of the next 3 months.

Given these technicals and analysts outlook, the stock is a short-term SELL. A break out of the range-bound movement in any direction would suggest the longer-term direction for the scrip.

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Analysis: ABIRLANUVO

Today’s pick is ABIRLANUVO [stockquote]ABIRLANUVO[/stockquote]. After an initial uptrend that lasted until April, the stock collapsed towards its long term support level of around Rs. 725, testing it multiple times through late September. However, the stock regained its mojo and has been on an up-trend ever since. In the last three months, the stock has risen 41% against 10% of the Nifty’s.

stock

Oscillators RSI and CMO are in over-bought territory. Besides, they are at the highest levels seen over the last year which is an extremely bearish sign.

The MACD line is headed towards the signal line and the decreasing histogram levels are suggesting a short-term bearish move.

The long-term GMMA are fanning out to give a long-term bullish outlook for the stock. The short-term GMMA lines just gave a bearish signal with the lines crossing-over. However, the 9×18 technical is suggesting a near term bullish move for the scrip.

cor

ABIRLANUVO’s average correlation of 0.62 with the Nifty is positive and strong. The stock will be replicating the movements of Nifty given such co-efficient. [stockquote]NIFTYBEES[/stockquote]

vol

ABIRLANUVO has a historical volatility in the range of 0.3 to 0.6. The scrip’s volatility is in the middle range.

abnuvoAlso note that HSBC sold Rs. 15 Cr. worth (0.13% of the shares outstanding) in the open market on the 26th November.

From a fundamental point of view, Globe Capital has a BUY on ABIRLANUVO. They expect it to become a beneficiary of increased FDI in insurance and they are also bullish on its chances of getting a banking license.

To conclude, given these technicals, the stock is a short-term SELL. For the long-term the stock has a clear technical green signal and it appears that the fundamentals concur: long-term BUY.

 

 

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Analysis: CANBK

Today’s pick is CANBK. [stockquote]CANBK[/stockquote]. After an initial uptrend till Feb, the stock started a downward move till it saw a 52 week low around the Rs. 300 levels in Sep. However, September put a fire under the stock. In the last three months, the stock moved 48% against 10% rise of Nifty’s.

stock

Oscillators RSI and CMO are at currently at 65 and 58 – over-bought territory. Although looking at the historical reversal levels, the stock still has to track 10 points.

The MACD line is headed towards the signal line and the decreasing histogram levels are suggesting a short-term bearish move.

The long-term GMMA are fanning out to give a long-term bullish outlook for the stock. The short-term GMMA lines just saw a bearish signal because of the lines cross-over.

cor

CANBK’s average correlation of 0.63 with the Nifty is positive and strong. The stock will be replicating the movements of Nifty given such a co-efficient. [stockquote]NIFTYBEES[/stockquote]

vol

CANBK has a historical volatility in the range of 0.3 to 0.9. The scrip’s volatility is in the middle range.

Looking at these technicals the stock is short-term SELL. For the long-term the stock has a clear green signal for the up moves if it holds onto the current trend-line.

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Analysis: OFSS

Today’s pick is OFSS. [stockquote]OFSS[/stockquote]. The stock has been in an uptrend through-out the past year. There was a three month consolidation phase for the stock May through July, but it could not cap the upwards movement of the scrip. The stock recorded its 52 week high of 3120 in the month of Oct following which it started moving down, finding support along the long-term trend-line. In the last three months, the stock moved 1% against 10% rise of Nifty’s.

stock

Oscillators RSI and CMO are at currently at 67 and 53 – the over-bought territory. Although looking at the historical reversal levels, the stock still has to track 10 points.

The MACD line and signal line are moving very close to each other, not giving enough room to suggest any direction currently.

The long-term and short-term GMMA lines are closing towards each other, not able to give any direction to the stock. However the short-term 4×9 crossover is suggesting a bullish phase for the stock.

cor

OFSS’s average correlation of -0.01 with the Nifty is negligible. The stock will not be replicating the movements of Nifty given such co-efficient. [stockquote]NIFTYBEES[/stockquote]

vol

OFSS has a historical volatility in the range of 0.4 to 1.0. The scrip’s volatility is at its lowest.

Looking at these technicals the stock is short-term BUY. We could give a long-term call once it breaks out of the pennant formation.

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Analysis: LUPIN

Today’s pick is LUPIN. [stockquote]LUPIN[/stockquote]. The stock has been in an uptrend through-out the past year. It recorded its 52 week high of Rs. 631 in the month of Sep following which it started moving in a range of Rs. 550 – Rs. 600.The stock closed above this range yesterday. In the last three months, the stock moved -3% against 11% rise of Nifty’s.

stock

Oscillators RSI and CMO are at currently at 66 and 56 – in the over-bought territory. Although looking at the historical reversal levels, the stock still has to track 10 points.

The MACD line in on up-move and is supported by the rising histograms, a sign of bullishness for the scrip.

The long-term GMMA lines are starting to spread out (a bullish sign) accompanied with the expanding short-term lines, suggesting a short-term bullish move for the stock. This is further confirmed by the 9×18 bullish cross-over last week.

cor

LUPIN’s average correlation of 0.30 with the Nifty is positive. Although, the stock will not be replicating the movements of Nifty given the small co-efficient. [stockquote]NIFTYBEES[/stockquote]

vol

LUPIN has a historical volatility in the range of 0.3 to 0.6. The scrip’s volatility is at its lowest.

Looking at these technicals the stock is short-term BUY. We could give a long-term call after a decisive expansion of the long-term GMMA lines.

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