Author: Abhishek

Analysis: RAJESHEXPO

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Today’s pick is RAJESHEXPO [stockquote]RAJESHEXPO[/stockquote]. The stock has seen a couple of major corrections after trial flights during the year. The stock has got major support around Rs. 115 levels. Post October, the stock again started an up-move which was stopped around Rs. 150 levels a couple of days ago. This is going to act as a resistance for the near term. In the last three months, the stock has moved 18% vs. a meager 4% of the Nifty’s.

RAJESHEXPO Technical analysis chart

Oscillators RSI and CMO are retreating from the over-bought territory. Also, the stock is trading close to the upper Bollinger band and is hence is short-term bearish sign.

The MACD line has just started a move down towards the signal line followed by the fall in the histogram levels suggesting a bearish move. However, Long-term GMMA lines are experiencing an expansion giving out a bullish signal for the scrip. The candle-sticks produced a bearish engulfing pattern just yesterday after a 5% fall in the scrip.

RAJESHEXPO correlation chart

RAJESHEXPO’s average correlation with the Nifty is 0.44 is positive. The scrip will be replicating the movement of Nifty. [stockquote]NIFTYBEES[/stockquote]

RAJESHEXPO volatility chart

RAJESHEXPO has a historical volatility in the range of 0.4 to 1.2. The scrip’s volatility currently is in the lower end of the range.

To conclude, given these technicals, the stock is a short-term SELL. For the long-term we suggest a BUY because of the strong underlying trend with a keen eye around the resistance at Rs. 150 levels.

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Analysis: ATUL

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Today’s pick is ATUL [stockquote]ATUL[/stockquote]. The stock has been on an up-trend ever since the start of the year. It just saw its 52-week high of Rs. 475 last week.The stock has a support near Rs. 400 levels. In the last three months, the stock has moved 26% vs. a meager 4% of the Nifty’s.

ATUL Technical analysis chart

Oscillators RSI and CMO are nearing towards the over-sold territory. Also, the stock is trading close to the lower Bollinger band and is hence a bullish sign.

The MACD line and the signal line are moving far from each other but not suggesting any direction. Long-term GMMA lines are experiencing an expansion giving out an extremely bullish signal for the scrip. Short-term technical gave a 18×9 and 18×4 bearish signal recently.

Atul Correlation Chart

ATUL’s average correlation with the Nifty is 0.57 is positive and strong. The scrip will be replicating the movement of Nifty closely. [stockquote]NIFTYBEES[/stockquote]

ATUL Volatility Chart

ATUL has a historical volatility in the range of 0.4 to 0.9. The scrip’s volatility currently is in the middle of the range.

To conclude, given these technicals, the stock is a short-term HOLD. For the long-term we suggest a BUY because of the strong underlying trend with a keen eye around the Rs. 400 levels.

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Analysis: MPHASIS

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Today’s pick is MPHASIS [stockquote]MPHASIS[/stockquote]. The stock had a real good start of the year with an uptrend till April, but it could not sustain the momentum and crashed to its trend-line to find support. Since then it has been in an up-trend finding constant support in the trend-line until recently, where it closed below the trend-line. In the last three months, the stock has moved – 6% vs. 5% of the Nifty’s.

MPHASIS technical analysis chart

Oscillators RSI and CMO are nearing over-sold territory.

The MACD line and the signal line are moving close to each other – directionless. Both long-term and short-term GMMA lines are seeing a constrained movement leading to an indecisive future for the stock. Short-term technical gave a 4×9 bullish signal for the stock last week.

MPHASIS Correlation Chart

MPHASIS’s average correlation with the Nifty is 0.30. The scrip will be not be replicating the movement of Nifty closely. [stockquote]NIFTYBEES[/stockquote]

MPHASIS Volatility chart

MPHASIS has a historical volatility in the range of 0.4 to 1.4. The scrip’s volatility currently is in the lower part of the range.

To conclude, given these technicals, the stock is a short-term HOLD. For the long-term we will take a stand based on how the long-term GMMA lines unravel themselves.

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Analysis: NIFTYBEES

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Today’s pick is NIFTYBEES – the ETF that tracks the Nifty 50 Index. [stockquote]NIFTYBEES[/stockquote]. After an initial up-trend at the start of this year that lasted till the end of February, the index saw 40-point correction in May. After testing the support at Rs. 480, the ETF got back on its horse and has been trending upwards ever since. The ETF just experienced its 52-week high at Rs. 600 a week ago. In the last three months, the scrip is up 6%.

NIFTYBEES technical analysis chart

Oscillators RSI and CMO are in no man’s land suggesting no particular direction for the ETF.

The MACD line and the signal line are moving close to each other – indicating a lack of any particular direction. However, both long-term and short-term GMMA lines are well spread, giving a bullish sign for the ETF. Also, the 4×9 technical gave a bullish signal for the ETF last week.

NIFTYBEES volatility chart

NIFTYBEES has a historical volatility in the range of 0.2 to 0.35. The scrip’s volatility currently is in the lowest of the range.

To conclude, given these technicals, NIFTYBEES is a short-term BUY. Following the current trend in progress, the scrip is also a long term BUY with a resistance level close to Rs. 600.

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Weekly Recap

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NIFTY technical analysis

The NIFTY ended on a negative tone, drifting down -0.56% for the week.
Biggest losers were JPASSOCIAT (-4.73%), CAIRN (-3.90%) and AMBUJACEM (-3.25%).
And the biggest winners were TATASTEEL (+8.49%), HINDALCO (+7.79%) and JINDALSTEL (+5.42%).fii.2012-12-17.2012-12-21
Advancers lead decliners 26 vs 24
Gold: -1.20%, Banks: -0.75%. Infrastructure: -2.12%,
Net FII flows for the week: $824.80 mm (Equity) and $68.43 mm (Debt)

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