Category: Your Money

A Cloudy future for Indian IT?

The national employability report 2011 compiled by Aspiring Minds revealed a shocking trend- the percentage of ready-to-deploy engineers for IT jobs is dismally low at 2.68%. Even though India produces more than five lakh engineers every year, only 17.45 % are ready to be employed in the IT sector. Revenues for Indian information technology (IT) and business process outsourcing (BPO) services companies is expected to cross $100 billion mark this financial year.

Indian IT Sector

However, there are doubts over sustaining this multi-fold growth due to supply-side constraints like talent availability. The report notes that around 92% of graduating engineers do not have the required programming and algorithm skills required for IT product companies whereas 56% showed lack of soft skills and cognitive skills. To retain its competitive edge, the IT industry requires an industry-ready workforce. Sector-specific skill shortages have emerged with middle-management personnel possessing little domain experience.

The IT/BPO sector also faces threat in the form of competition from other offshore destinations who are ready to dislodge India. A number of alternative offshoring locations like Philippines, Eastern Europe, Latin America, and China are emerging as viable options for BPO delivery centers.

Philippines has superior English language and soft skills for customer service operations especially for US buyers, Eastern Europe offers language and time-zone advantages for European buyers.

EMPLOYABILITY OF GRADUATES

These competing destinations also offer lower cost, provide quality talent pool and are offering fiscal and regulatory incentives to lure buyers away from India.

Mid-tier IT companies are facing problems of their own. Apart from over-dependence on few clients and increasing attrition, they are also plagued by non-availability of talent. Since the sector biggies get preference in campuses during recruitment, mid-cap firms lose out on top-quality talent. This has impacted their ability to execute projects effectively.

TOP TIERAlso, the emergence of cloud computing has allowed companies to cut fixed costs in terms of buying software or high capital expenditure on IT infrastructure.

Even as cloud computing is yet to address key issues like data security, it has made crucial inroads into traditional outsourcing and the days of companies hiring thousands seems to be over as SECOND TIERthey no longer have to maintain assets such as servers and software.

Even as we dissect the industry on key parameters like order pipeline, demand outlook, decision-making cycle, client IT budgets, pricing power and so on, it is crucial to address the structural issues that plague the IT industry if it is to continue as the blue-eyed sector of the Indian economy.

Instead of resting on its laurels as one of the world’s top providers of IT and BPO services, companies must build new skills in its workforce to maintain its competitive edge and innovate.

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Analysis: HINDUNILVR

Today’s pick is HINDUNILVR [stockquote]HINDUNILVR[/stockquote]. The stock has been on an uptrend through-out the year. The stock experienced its 52-week high of Rs. 580 in mid-October and then corrected itself to find support at Rs. 525. Since then the stock is undergoing a pennant formation. In the last three months, the stock has moved -6% vs. +3% of the Nifty’s.

HINDUNILVR technical analysis chart

Oscillators RSI and CMO are in no man’s land unable to give any directional suggestion. Short-term technical just saw a 9×18 bullish cross-over.

The MACD line is moving close to the signal line and the dropping histogram levels are suggesting an imminent bearish crossover for the line. The long-term and short-term GMMA lines are very constrained and hence are not suggesting any direction to the scrip.

HINDUNILVR correlation chart

HINDUNILVR’s average correlation with the Nifty is 0.23, which is positive. The scrip will be replicating the movement of Nifty. [stockquote]NIFTYBEES[/stockquote]

HINDUNILVR volatility chart

HINDUNILVR has a historical volatility in the range of 0.3 to 0.7. The scrip’s volatility currently is in the lower end of the range.

Given these technicals, we suggest a short-term and a long-term watch for the script. The investor is advised to be on a lookout for a decisive breakout of the pennant in either direction to make any directional call.

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Analysis: JETAIRWAYS

Today’s pick is JETAIRWAYS [stockquote]JETAIRWAYS[/stockquote]. The stock has been on an uptrend through-out the year, but it picked up momentum since November and it continues to rise. The stock experienced its 52-week high of Rs. 639 in mid-December and is headed towards the same again after a slight correction. In the last three months, the stock has moved a whopping +59% vs. +3% of the Nifty’s.

JETAIRWAYS technical analysis chart

Oscillators RSI and CMO are close to the over-bought territory but historical levels of these indicators suggest that the stock has more room to run before it corrects. Besides, short-term 4×9 and 4×18 just saw a bullish cross-over.

The MACD line is moving close to the signal line and the rising histogram levels are suggesting an imminent bullish crossover of the line. The long-term GMMA lines are well dispersed, giving out a very positive outlook for the stock.

JETAIRWAYS Correlation chart

JETAIRWAYS’s average correlation with the Nifty is 0.56, which is positive and strong. The scrip will be replicating the movement of Nifty. [stockquote]NIFTYBEES[/stockquote]

JETAIRWAYS volatility chart

JETAIRWAYS has a historical volatility in the range of 0.4 to 1.2. The scrip’s volatility currently is in the higher end of the range and should act as point of caution for traders in case the divergences in RSI and CMO come into play.

Given these technicals, we suggest a short-term and a long-term BUY for the scrip. It’s a good idea to ride the momentum with trailing stop-losses in place to book profits if a trend-reversal were to take place.

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Analysis: WIPRO (WIT)

Today’s pick is WIPRO [stockquote]WIPRO[/stockquote]. The stock began 2012 with a slight upside move to see resistance around the Rs. 450 levels. After testing that resistance for 2 months, the stock started moving downwards till it reached Rs. 340. This acted as support for the stock in the later months as well. And post November, the stock has been on an up-trend. In the last three months, the stock has moved +10% vs. +5% of the Nifty’s.

WIPRO Technical analysis chart

Oscillators RSI and CMO are closing towards the over-bought territory.

The MACD line is moving above the signal line in a bullish mode confirmed by the increasing histogram levels. The long-term GMMA lines are moving very close to each other unable to suggest any bias for the long-term. Although, the short-term GMMA lines are suggesting a bullish move given the expansion of the lines.

WIPRO correlation chart

WIPRO’s average correlation with the Nifty is 0.56, which is positive and strong. The scrip will be replicating the movement of Nifty. [stockquote]NIFTYBEES[/stockquote]

WIPRO volatility chart

WIPRO has a historical volatility in the range of 0.3 to 0.8. The scrip’s volatility currently is in the lower end of the range.

WIPRO Analyst coverage

Analysts are kind of bullish for the stock, given the high average ratings from various analysts. Better earnings this quarter could add on to the glory of the stock.

Given these technicals, we suggest a short-term hold and a long-term BUY for the scrip. We suggest traders to use trailing stop-losses in order to book profits if a trend-reversal were to take place.

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