Tag: technical analysis

Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets: Ch 1

This is the review of the first chapter of John J. Murphy’s Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets.

Philosophy of Technical Analysis

Technical analysis is the study of market action, primarily through the use of charts, for the purpose of forecasting future price trends.

It is based on the rationale that:

  1. Market action discounts everything. Anything that can possible affect the price – fundamentally, politically, psychologically, or otherwise – is actually reflected in the price.
  2. Prices move in trends. The purpose of charting price action is to identify and follow trends. Once a trend is setup, it is more likely to continue than to reverse.
  3. History repeats itself. Much of technical analysis is based on the study of human psychology, which tends not to change. The key to understanding the future lies in a study of the past.

Market price tends to lead the known fundamentals. Fundamental analysis is more of an explanation of why the price action occurred while technical analysis tries to predict that price action.

Technical analysis is rooted in statistics. It is a combination if descriptive statistics (graphical representation of data: a candlestick chart, for example) and inductive statistics (generalizations or predictions extrapolated from that data: indicators, for example).

Stay tuned for more!

Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets

I had done a chapter wise review of Tony Plummer’s Psychology of Technical Analysis a few months ago. Given the amount of interest it generated, I’ve decided to take a crack at reviewing the mother of all Technical Analysis books: John J. Murphy’s Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets.

Here’s how Amazon.com describes the book:

This outstanding reference has already taught thousands of traders the concepts of technical analysis and their application in the futures and stock markets. Covering the latest developments in computer technology, technical tools, and indicators, the second edition features new material on candlestick charting, inter-market relationships, stocks and stock rotation, plus state-of-the-art examples and figures. From how to read charts to understanding indicators and the crucial role technical analysis plays in investing, readers gain a thorough and accessible overview of the field of technical analysis, with a special emphasis on futures markets.

I suggest you get your copy today and join me on this journey toward a better understanding technical analysis!

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