Tag: technical analysis

Analysis: AMBUJACEM

Today’s pick is AMBUJACEM [stockquote]AMBUJACEM[/stockquote]. The stock started an uptrend in June, after a range-bound start for the year. After reaching its 52 week high of Rs. 223/- in October, the stock has been under a pennant formation. In the last three months, the stock is up 8% vs. 7% of the Nifty’s.

AMBUJACEM Technical Chart

Oscillators RSI and CMO are in no man’s land suggesting no direction for the stock.

The MACD line and the signal line are moving close to each other – directionless. Also, both long-term and short-term GMMA lines are too constricted to give any signal. Short-term technical gave a 18×4 bearish signal for the stock yesterday.

AMBUJACEM Correlation Chart

AMBUJACEM’s average correlation of 0.52 with the Nifty is positive. The stock will replicate the movements of Nifty. [stockquote]NIFTYBEES[/stockquote]

AMBUJACEM Volatility Chart

AMBUJACEM has a historical volatility in the range of 0.3 to 0.8. The scrip’s volatility currently is in the lower range.

To conclude, given these technicals, the stock is a short-term HOLD. For the long-term a directional bet could be made once we see a break-out of the pennant so we suggest a long-term HOLD.

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Analysis: LICHSGFIN

Today’s pick is LICHSGFIN [stockquote]LICHSGFIN[/stockquote]. The stock has been on a constant uptrend for the entire year coupled with many corrections. It touched its 52 week high of Rs. 287 in October. The stock is currently hovering around the same levels after experiencing a double bottom around Rs. 240 levels. In the last three months, the stock is up 6% vs. 8% of the Nifty’s.

LICHSGFIN technical chart

Oscillators RSI and CMO are deep inside the over-bought territory – a bearish sign for the scrip.

The MACD line and the signal line are moving parallel to each other not suggesting any direction for the stock. Also, both long-term and short-term GMMA lines are wide open, giving an extremely bullish signal.

LICHSGFIN correlation plot

LICHSGFIN’s average correlation of 0.62 with the Nifty is positive and strong. The stock will be replicating the movements of Nifty. [stockquote]NIFTYBEES[/stockquote]

LICHSGFIN volatility chart

LICHSGFIN has a historical volatility in the range of 0.3 to 0.8. The scrip’s volatility currently is in the lower range.

LICHSGFIN Fundamental

From a fundamental point of view, Globe Capital has a BUY on LICHSGFIN. The decrease in NPA ratio and an outlook to attain a higher net interest margin are expected to boost company’s profit organically.

To conclude, given these technicals, the stock is a short-term SELL. For the long-term the stock does not seem to have a visible resistance level (if it clears 287, the sky is the limit.) Also the fundamentals are bullish: long-term BUY

 

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Quantitative Option Strategies

The markets have been all around the place in the last few week. And this has created a lot of confusion in the minds of traders too. So, how do you make money in such scenarios?

The best way to be in the markets right now is to get exposure in the derivatives market. Here are a few options trade that made 33%, 19% and 7% when the markets went nowhere last week.

 ACC options position

LT Options position

BATAINDIA Options position

Even when the respective stocks were -1%, -2% and -3.3% there options position have made much more profits.

The ideas based on the algorithms helped us take these positions and carve out the profits even under such market conditions. You too can use these ideas to get more greens in your portfolio.

Open a StockViz Demat account today and go Pro!

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Analysis: TATACOMM (TCL)

Today’s pick is TATACOMM [stockquote]TATACOMM[/stockquote]. After an initial uptrend that lasted until February, the stock collapsed towards Rs. 200 levels. Testing it a couple of times times through July, the stock tried moving up but met with resistance around 260 levels and has been trading between Rs. 220 to Rs. 260 range since. In the last three months, the stock is down –7% against 8% rise of the Nifty’s.

TATACOMM technical chart

Oscillators RSI and CMO are nearing towards the over-sold territory. But they still have to cover some distance before they give any bullish sign.

The MACD line and the signal line are moving very close to each other, making it very unclear as to what might be in store for the stock for the short term.

The long-term GMMA and the short-term GMMA lines are also unable to give any directional suggestion as they are not well dispersed. Also, the 9×18 technical gave a near term bearish sign for the scrip just last week.

TATACOMM correlation chart

TATACOMM’s average correlation of -0.13 with the Nifty is negative. The stock will not be replicating the movements of Nifty given a negative correlation co-efficient. [stockquote]NIFTYBEES[/stockquote]

TATACOMM volatility chart

TATACOMM has a historical volatility in the range of 0.4 to 1.2. However in the last few years it has been in the 0.4 – 0.8 range. The scrip’s volatility currently is in the lower range.

TATACOMM analyst recommendations

Analysts have given an underperform rating to the scrip based on its expected earnings of the next 3 months.

Given these technicals and analysts outlook, the stock is a short-term SELL. A break out of the range-bound movement in any direction would suggest the longer-term direction for the scrip.

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Analysis: ABIRLANUVO

Today’s pick is ABIRLANUVO [stockquote]ABIRLANUVO[/stockquote]. After an initial uptrend that lasted until April, the stock collapsed towards its long term support level of around Rs. 725, testing it multiple times through late September. However, the stock regained its mojo and has been on an up-trend ever since. In the last three months, the stock has risen 41% against 10% of the Nifty’s.

stock

Oscillators RSI and CMO are in over-bought territory. Besides, they are at the highest levels seen over the last year which is an extremely bearish sign.

The MACD line is headed towards the signal line and the decreasing histogram levels are suggesting a short-term bearish move.

The long-term GMMA are fanning out to give a long-term bullish outlook for the stock. The short-term GMMA lines just gave a bearish signal with the lines crossing-over. However, the 9×18 technical is suggesting a near term bullish move for the scrip.

cor

ABIRLANUVO’s average correlation of 0.62 with the Nifty is positive and strong. The stock will be replicating the movements of Nifty given such co-efficient. [stockquote]NIFTYBEES[/stockquote]

vol

ABIRLANUVO has a historical volatility in the range of 0.3 to 0.6. The scrip’s volatility is in the middle range.

abnuvoAlso note that HSBC sold Rs. 15 Cr. worth (0.13% of the shares outstanding) in the open market on the 26th November.

From a fundamental point of view, Globe Capital has a BUY on ABIRLANUVO. They expect it to become a beneficiary of increased FDI in insurance and they are also bullish on its chances of getting a banking license.

To conclude, given these technicals, the stock is a short-term SELL. For the long-term the stock has a clear technical green signal and it appears that the fundamentals concur: long-term BUY.

 

 

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