Tag: mutual funds

Mutual fund positioning: Feb 2014

We are trying to figure out if tracking mutual fund purchase and sell decisions can help us be better investors. What fund managers do, vs. what they say, can provide insights into their decision making process. Here are their biggest moves in February this year:

Added on aggregate
M&M
TATAMOTORS
SBIN
CADILAHC
TCS
GODFRYPHLP
KOTAKBANK
LUPIN
ADANIPORTS
IGL
Removed on aggregate
MCDOWELL-N
NESTLEIND
BHARTIARTL
BANKBARODA
SSLT
CAIRN
IDEA
HDFCBANK
OFSS
ABIRLANUVO

Five month aggregates

mf removed

Reversals: Reliance(+), Bank of Baroda(–), Petronet(+)

mf added

Reversals: TCS(+), State Bank of India(+), Titan(+), Cadila Healthcare(+)
 
 
NOTE:

  • Only open ended funds that were in the “accumulation” phase were considered
  • Funds named “growth” and with the “direct” option alone were considered
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Institutional Investing Trends

Last year has been a wonderful year to go elephant hunting. Banks were hurting and buried under bad debt, FIIs were selling Indian debt on the back of a collapsing Rupee, this pretty much made domestic bond funds the lender of last resort. Supply, combined with the fact that commissions on selling debt funds are way more lucrative than those on equity, lead to a DII (Domestic Institutional Investor) debt binge.

DII Fund Flows (Cash)

dii cash

FII Fund flows (Cash)

FIIs were in full on panic mode in June, July and August last year. But haven’t really participated in the equity markets this year.

fii cash

DII Fund Flows (Derivatives)

After being short net short in December and Jan, are we seeing a change of heart?

dii derivative

FII Fund Flows (Derivatives)

FII participation remains low. Waiting for elections?

fii derivative

FII Favorites

J&KBANK +26.43%
TATAMTRDVR +19.96%
TECHM +18.30%
DEN +17.51%
NHPC +17.26%
UPL +13.05%
HDIL -36.60%
HEXAWARE -23.00%
AMTEKAUTO -19.25%
SINTEX -12.81%
IVRCLINFRA -12.65%
WELCORP -12.1%

Mutual fund trends

Equity mutual funds’ actions over the last 4 months:

Added on aggregate
ITC
MARUTI
BHARTIARTL
POWERGRID
WIPRO
SUNPHARMA
TCS
TITAN
AXISBANK
ALSTOMT&D
Removed on aggregate
RELIANCE
NMDC
BAJAJ-AUTO
IDEA
TECHM
CAIRN
PETRONET
NTPC
LICHSGFIN
CIPLA

Note:

  • All figures in Rs. crores
  • Data from SEBI, fund portfolio disclosures and corporate filings
  • Only open ended funds that were in the “accumulation” phase were considered
  • Funds named “growth” and with the “direct” option alone were considered
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Mutual fund positioning: 3-month trend

We are trying to figure out if tracking mutual fund purchase and sell decisions can help us be better investors. What fund managers do, vs. what they say, can provide insights into their decision making process. We took a look at what funds have done over the last 3 months (Oct-2013, Nov-2013, Dec-2013 portfolios) to see how they are positioned going into the year end.

Top 10 hated stocks:

RELIANCE [stockquote]RELIANCE[/stockquote]
TECHM [stockquote]TECHM[/stockquote]
IDEA [stockquote]IDEA[/stockquote]
CAIRN [stockquote]CAIRN[/stockquote]
HEXAWARE [stockquote]HEXAWARE[/stockquote]
CIPLA [stockquote]CIPLA[/stockquote]
NTPC [stockquote]NTPC[/stockquote]
PETRONET [stockquote]PETRONET[/stockquote]
HDFCBANK [stockquote]HDFCBANK[/stockquote]
NMDC [stockquote]NMDC[/stockquote]

Top 10 loved stocks:

POWERGRID [stockquote]POWERGRID[/stockquote]
AXISBANK [stockquote]AXISBANK[/stockquote]
BHARTIARTL [stockquote]BHARTIARTL[/stockquote]
WIPRO [stockquote]WIPRO[/stockquote]
ALSTOMT&D [stockquote]ALSTOMT&D[/stockquote]
ACC [stockquote]ACC[/stockquote]
APOLLOTYRE [stockquote]APOLLOTYRE[/stockquote]
TITAN [stockquote]TITAN[/stockquote]
SHOPERSTOP [stockquote]SHOPERSTOP[/stockquote]
SKFINDIA [stockquote]SKFINDIA[/stockquote]

The biggest additions in December were POWERGRID, COALINDIA and ALSTOMT&D and the biggest exits were INDUSINDBK, RELIANCE and OIL

Can the exit out of Reliance explain why the stock hasn’t shown much of a spark in spite of beating consensus estimates? Are fund managers bullish about power distribution companies now that the debt of state electricity boards have been restructured and they can finally pay the discoms? Interesting moves…

Note:

  1. Only open ended funds that were in the “accumulation” phase were considered
  2. Funds named “growth” and with the “direct” option alone were considered
  3. Market value as-of closing 2014-01-20

 

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Most loved and hated stocks by funds

Is there value in knowing what stocks were bought and sold by mutual funds?

We took a look at stocks that were exited by mutual funds and we ranked them according to the market value dumped. The 10 most hated stocks:

 

NTPC [stockquote]NTPC[/stockquote]
COALINDIA [stockquote]COALINDIA[/stockquote]
IDEA [stockquote]IDEA[/stockquote]
PETRONET [stockquote]PETRONET[/stockquote]
RELIANCE [stockquote]RELIANCE[/stockquote]
HEXAWARE [stockquote]HEXAWARE[/stockquote]
CAIRN [stockquote]CAIRN[/stockquote]
BAJAJ-AUTO [stockquote]BAJAJ-AUTO[/stockquote]
BALKRISIND [stockquote]BALKRISIND[/stockquote]
EXIDEIND [stockquote]EXIDEIND[/stockquote]
POWERGRID [stockquote]POWERGRID[/stockquote]

 

And similarly, the 10 most loved stocks:

AXISBANK [stockquote]AXISBANK[/stockquote]
BHARTIARTL [stockquote]BHARTIARTL[/stockquote]
WIPRO [stockquote]WIPRO[/stockquote]
TATASTEEL [stockquote]TATASTEEL[/stockquote]
RANBAXY [stockquote]RANBAXY[/stockquote]
DRREDDY [stockquote]DRREDDY[/stockquote]
SSLT [stockquote]SSLT[/stockquote]
INGVYSYABK [stockquote]INGVYSYABK[/stockquote]
MRF [stockquote]MRF[/stockquote]
BHARATFORG [stockquote]BHARATFORG[/stockquote]

Its still early days to see if fund decisions have any meaningful impact after disclosure. We’ll keep you posted!

Note:

 

  1. Portfolio data as-of 2013-10-31
  2. Only open ended funds that were in the “accumulation” phase were considered
  3. Funds named “growth” and with the “direct” option alone were considered
  4. Market value as-of closing 2013-10-31

 

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