Tag: monthly

Monthly Recap: The Perfect Investor

world.2014-12-31.2015-01-30

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) +9.06%
CAC(FRA) +7.76%
UKX(GBR) +2.79%
NKY(JPN) +1.28%
SPX(USA) -3.90%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) +1.19%
INMEX(MEX) -6.09%
NGSEINDX(NGA) -14.70%
XU030(TUR) +3.79%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) -6.20%
SHCOMP(CHN) -0.75%
NIFTY(IND) +6.35%
INDEXCF(RUS) +17.98%
TOP40(ZAF) +2.60%

Commodities

Energy
Heating Oil -9.59%
Brent Crude Oil -6.64%
Ethanol -15.22%
WTI Crude Oil -9.49%
Natural Gas -9.44%
RBOB Gasoline +2.30%
Metals
Copper -10.92%
Gold 100oz +7.99%
Platinum +2.27%
Palladium -3.38%
Silver 5000oz +9.55%

Currencies

USDEUR:+7.28% USDJPY:-1.96%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) +2.29%
USDMXN(MEX) +1.54%
USDNGN(NGA) +2.25%
USDTRY(TUR) +4.55%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) +0.94%
USDCNY(CHN) +0.73%
USDINR(IND) -1.86%
USDRUB(RUS) +19.40%
USDZAR(ZAF) +0.79%
Agricultural
Cocoa -3.55%
Coffee (Robusta) +1.53%
Lumber -2.74%
Soybean Meal -9.07%
White Sugar -2.07%
Soybeans -5.88%
Coffee (Arabica) -4.31%
Corn -7.56%
Feeder Cattle -6.25%
Wheat -14.73%
Cattle -6.55%
Cotton -2.45%
Lean Hogs -17.35%
Orange Juice +0.07%
Sugar #11 +1.44%

Credit Indices

Index Change
Markit CDX EM -2.75%
Markit CDX NA HY -0.52%
Markit CDX NA IG +2.54%
Markit iTraxx Asia ex-Japan IG +5.51%
Markit iTraxx Australia +2.89%
Markit iTraxx Europe -7.13%
Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover -36.06%
Markit iTraxx Japan -2.64%
Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe -2.88%
Markit LCDX (Loan CDS) +0.24%
Markit MCDX (Municipal CDS) +3.87%
We certainly started the party with a bang: Euro QE, Swiss abandon, Rajan rate-cut… Oh my!

Index Returns

index performance.2014-12-31.2015-01-30

Sector Performance

sector performance.2014-12-31.2015-01-30

Advance Decline

advance.decline.line2.2014-12-31.2015-01-30

Market Cap Decile Performance

Decile Mkt. Cap. Adv/Decl
1 (micro) -3.90% 68/66
2 +2.62% 79/54
3 +0.33% 73/60
4 +2.82% 81/52
5 +4.56% 72/61
6 +3.52% 81/52
7 +7.85% 77/56
8 +5.76% 76/57
9 +5.68% 69/64
10 (mega) +8.38% 69/65
Large caps did good. Midcaps not so much.

Top Winners and Losers

HINDUNILVR +22.69%
DLF +23.65%
ADANIENT +28.99%
M&MFIN -22.56%
PETRONET -13.76%
PNB -13.44%
DLF – looks like the market likes the EMI scheme. M&MFIN and PNB got shellacked because of poor shows at earnings parade. The Adanis continued to entertain…

ETF Performance

INFRABEES +7.79%
NIFTYBEES +6.68%
BANKBEES +5.84%
JUNIORBEES +5.46%
GOLDBEES +4.65%
CPSEETF -0.12%
PSUBNKBEES -3.71%
Had gold found a bottom?

Yield Curve

yield Curve.2014-12-31.2015-01-30

Bond Indices

Sub Index Change in YTM Total Return(%)
GSEC TB -0.33 +0.74%
GSEC SUB 1-3 -0.92 +0.94%
GSEC SUB 3-8 -0.18 +1.48%
GSEC SUB 8 -0.14 +1.91%
The long bond was a rock-star.

Investment Theme Performance

Equity Mutual Funds

Bond Mutual Funds

Thought to sum up the month

Is there such a thing as a “perfect” value investor? Bob Goldfarb, chief executive of the legendary Sequoia Fund, was asked by Columbia University professor Louis Lowenstein “to select ten dyed-in-the-wool value investors who all followed the essential edicts of Graham and Dodd.”

Goldfarb came up with nine. For a nine-year period from 2006 through 2014, the average return of the eight funds that survived to the end was 6.70% vs. the S&P 500 Index’s 7.99%.

Source: Looking Back at James Montier’s “Perfect” Value Investors

Monthly Recap: Desires > Aspirations

world.2014-11-28.2014-12-31

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) -2.17%
CAC(FRA) -3.14%
UKX(GBR) -2.60%
NKY(JPN) -0.05%
SPX(USA) -0.45%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) +1.80%
INMEX(MEX) -5.54%
NGSEINDX(NGA) +0.33%
XU030(TUR) -0.93%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) -11.79%
SHCOMP(CHN) +20.57%
NIFTY(IND) -2.24%
INDEXCF(RUS) -8.94%
TOP40(ZAF) -1.15%

Commodities

Energy
Ethanol -21.95%
Brent Crude Oil -20.57%
WTI Crude Oil -21.45%
Heating Oil -19.32%
Natural Gas -27.91%
RBOB Gasoline -24.60%
Metals
Copper -1.05%
Platinum +0.32%
Gold 100oz +1.75%
Palladium -1.43%
Silver 5000oz +1.95%

Currencies

USDEUR:+3.62% USDJPY:+1.55%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) +2.78%
USDMXN(MEX) +6.70%
USDNGN(NGA) +2.44%
USDTRY(TUR) +5.62%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) +4.93%
USDCNY(CHN) +1.02%
USDINR(IND) +2.04%
USDRUB(RUS) +18.77%
USDZAR(ZAF) +5.51%
Agricultural
Coffee (Robusta) -12.45%
Lumber +0.82%
Soybeans -1.26%
Sugar #11 -8.60%
Wheat +0.26%
White Sugar -6.78%
Cattle -1.69%
Corn +4.84%
Orange Juice -3.12%
Feeder Cattle -3.24%
Soybean Meal -8.73%
Cocoa +3.43%
Coffee (Arabica) -14.03%
Cotton -3.09%
Lean Hogs -9.28%

Credit Indices

Index Change
Markit CDX EM -2.46%
Markit CDX NA HY -1.07%
Markit CDX NA IG +5.22%
Markit iTraxx Asia ex-Japan IG +1.76%
Markit iTraxx Australia +1.01%
Markit iTraxx Europe +2.30%
Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover +10.27%
Markit iTraxx Japan +2.28%
Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe -1.51%
Markit LCDX (Loan CDS) -0.49%
Markit MCDX (Municipal CDS) +5.27%
The dollar rallied, oil collapsed, credit spreads widened and the sag in coffee kept punters awake.
Russia and Brazil were the worst performing markets. From Brics to Rics to Ics…

Index Returns

index performance.2014-11-28.2014-12-31

Advance Decline

advance.decline.line2.2014-11-28.2014-12-31

Market Cap Decile Performance

Decile Mkt. Cap. Adv/Decl
1 (small) -9.85% 66/73
2 -5.19% 58/82
3 -4.45% 65/75
4 -2.74% 66/73
5 -3.71% 61/79
6 -3.54% 72/68
7 -1.31% 65/75
8 -1.14% 74/66
9 +0.52% 74/66
10 (mega) -2.85% 73/67
December was brutal, especially for small and mid caps…

Top Winners and Losers

UNIONBANK +11.22%
INFRATEL +12.24%
BAJAJFINSV +13.65%
RCOM -22.24%
TATASTEEL -15.62%
BPCL -13.43%
RCOM vs. Infratel, enuf said.

ETF Performance

BANKBEES +1.51%
GOLDBEES +0.87%
JUNIORBEES +0.24%
PSUBNKBEES +0.08%
CPSEETF -2.57%
NIFTYBEES -3.51%
INFRABEES -7.45%
Banks survived…

Yield Curve

yield Curve.2014-11-28.2014-12-31

Interbank Lending

mibor.30days.2014-12-31

Bond Indices

Sub Index Change in YTM Total Return(%)
GSEC TB -0.16 +0.77%
GSEC SUB 1-3 +0.23 +1.09%
GSEC SUB 3-8 -0.22 +1.65%
GSEC SUB 8 -0.32 +2.72%
#winning

Investment Theme Performance

Thought to sum up the month

When our aspirations conflict with our desires, our desires often win out. How do we stick to our long-term goals?

Make them easy and automatic, make them a matter of habit, and make them fun.

Source: How to Keep Your New Year’s Resolutions

Monthly Recap: Lying, cheating bankers

world.2014-10-31.2014-11-28

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) +7.01%
CAC(FRA) +3.71%
UKX(GBR) +2.69%
NKY(JPN) +6.37%
SPX(USA) +2.67%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) +1.19%
INMEX(MEX) -2.31%
NGSEINDX(NGA) -8.01%
XU030(TUR) +7.90%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) +1.59%
SHCOMP(CHN) +10.85%
NIFTY(IND) +3.20%
INDEXCF(RUS) +3.04%
TOP40(ZAF) -0.40%

Commodities

Energy
Brent Crude Oil -18.38%
Ethanol +14.75%
Heating Oil -14.43%
Natural Gas +5.18%
RBOB Gasoline -16.66%
WTI Crude Oil -18.16%
Metals
Copper -6.54%
Gold 100oz -0.26%
Palladium +2.16%
Platinum -2.76%
Silver 5000oz -3.14%

Currencies

USDEUR:+0.70% USDJPY:+5.75%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) +1.00%
USDMXN(MEX) +3.49%
USDNGN(NGA) +7.91%
USDTRY(TUR) +0.05%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) +3.73%
USDCNY(CHN) +0.52%
USDINR(IND) +1.09%
USDRUB(RUS) +15.01%
USDZAR(ZAF) +0.49%
Agricultural
Coffee (Robusta) +2.24%
Corn +0.20%
Lumber +1.11%
Coffee (Arabica) -0.90%
Cocoa +0.52%
Cotton -3.33%
Feeder Cattle -1.22%
Orange Juice +12.06%
Sugar #11 -2.62%
Cattle -0.53%
Lean Hogs +1.87%
Soybean Meal +0.85%
Soybeans -2.50%
Wheat +8.79%
White Sugar -3.85%

Credit Indices

Index Change
Markit CDX EM -1.23%
Markit CDX NA HY +0.96%
Markit CDX NA IG -5.29%
Markit iTraxx Asia ex-Japan IG -10.87%
Markit iTraxx Australia -5.75%
Markit iTraxx Europe -8.46%
Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover -35.75%
Markit iTraxx Japan -5.35%
Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe -2.32%
Markit LCDX (Loan CDS) +0.05%
Markit MCDX (Municipal CDS) -4.85%
The US dollar rally continued this month. Oil took a giant tumble on the back of OPEC’s non-cut. The race toward zero yield continues. 10-yr yields of Germany, France, Netherlands, Switzerland and Japan are all below 1%

Index Performance

index performance.2014-10-31.2014-11-28

Advance Decline

advance.decline.line2.2014-10-31.2014-11-28

Market cap decile performance

Decile Mkt. Cap. Adv/Decl
1 (micro) -0.47% 72/68
2 +4.92% 81/58
3 +3.91% 74/65
4 +1.61% 68/71
5 +1.26% 70/70
6 +3.29% 76/63
7 +5.43% 83/57
8 +1.94% 74/65
9 +5.05% 77/63
10 (mega) +4.03% 71/69
An across the board rally on macro events…

Top Winners and Losers

DLF +19.52%
INGVYSYABK +26.93%
BOSCHLTD +26.97%
NMDC -18.11%
JINDALSTEL -13.04%
RPOWER -11.33%
BOSCH put in a rally for the record books. And apparently, DLF is going to pay its CCI fine in EMIs…

ETF Performance

PSUBNKBEES +17.26%
BANKBEES +8.42%
JUNIORBEES +3.41%
NIFTYBEES +3.35%
INFRABEES +2.87%
GOLDBEES +0.66%
CPSEETF -2.43%
PSU Banks’ fund raising plans and the consequent dilution is not in the investors’ radar right now…

Yield Curve

yield Curve.2014-10-31.2014-11-28

Bond Indices

Sub Index Change in YTM Total Return(%)
GSEC TB -0.24 +0.70%
GSEC SUB 1-3 +0.10 +1.08%
GSEC SUB 3-8 -0.33 +1.30%
GSEC SUB 8 -0.20 +2.26%
Flat, flatter, flattest…

Investment Theme Performance

Thought to sum up the month

Workers from the red-blooded bit of banking — traders and the like — were more dishonest than those in ancillary jobs. Nearly a tenth of them lied blatantly.

Source: Talking about their work makes bankers more dishonest. (Economist)

Monthly Recap: Market Timing

world.2014-9-30.2014-10-31

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) -1.56%
CAC(FRA) -4.15%
UKX(GBR) -1.15%
NKY(JPN) +1.49%
SPX(USA) +2.36%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) -0.93%
INMEX(MEX) +0.17%
NGSEINDX(NGA) -8.88%
XU030(TUR) +8.03%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) +1.02%
SHCOMP(CHN) +2.38%
NIFTY(IND) +4.49%
INDEXCF(RUS) +5.49%
TOP40(ZAF) +0.51%

Commodities

Energy
Brent Crude Oil -9.26%
Ethanol +14.37%
Heating Oil -4.74%
Natural Gas -6.14%
RBOB Gasoline -17.18%
WTI Crude Oil -11.32%
Metals
Copper +1.66%
Gold 100oz -3.07%
Palladium +2.58%
Platinum -4.86%
Silver 5000oz -5.92%

Currencies

USDEUR:+0.85% USDJPY:+2.44%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) -0.84%
USDMXN(MEX) +0.42%
USDNGN(NGA) +1.09%
USDTRY(TUR) -2.41%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) +0.95%
USDCNY(CHN) -0.43%
USDINR(IND) -0.64%
USDRUB(RUS) +8.61%
USDZAR(ZAF) -2.23%
Agricultural
Cattle +6.09%
Cocoa -9.56%
Coffee (Arabica) -3.01%
Coffee (Robusta) +4.07%
Corn +17.10%
Cotton +3.77%
Feeder Cattle -0.31%
Lean Hogs -18.14%
Lumber -2.13%
Orange Juice -8.18%
Soybean Meal +25.67%
Soybeans +13.43%
Sugar #11 +3.69%
Wheat +12.00%
White Sugar +0.19%

Credit Indices

Index Change
Markit CDX EM -14.84%
Markit CDX NA HY +1.20%
Markit CDX NA IG -1.28%
Markit CDX NA IG HVOL +14.53%
Markit iTraxx Asia ex-Japan IG +10.99%
Markit iTraxx Australia +8.31%
Markit iTraxx Europe +0.54%
Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover +88.89%
Markit iTraxx Japan +9.27%
Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe +3.06%
Markit LCDX (Loan CDS) -0.30%
Markit MCDX (Municipal CDS) +1.13%
A month that started with jitters about the end of QE in the US ended with a monster rally on Japan pushing the button on a broader QE initiative that will see it buying foreign bonds and equities.

Index Performance

index performance.2014-9-30.2014-10-31

Sector Performance

sector performance.2014-9-30.2014-10-31

Market Cap Decile Performance

Decile Mkt. Cap. Adv/Decl
1 (micro) -10.35% 69/66
2 -0.01% 73/64
3 +2.53% 68/69
4 +0.89% 72/65
5 +2.06% 66/71
6 +3.11% 77/60
7 +1.51% 67/70
8 +2.55% 75/62
9 +3.58% 73/64
10 (mega) +4.07% 72/65
Micro-caps under-performed badly. But the clear winner in October were the large-caps.

Top Winners and Losers

YESBANK +22.48%
BANKINDIA +23.00%
BHEL +28.06%
DLF -17.30%
CAIRN -8.56%
EXIDEIND -7.08%
SEBI went after the DLF, now there’s a big question mark whether DLF should continue in the Nifty index.

ETFs

BANKBEES +11.06%
CPSEETF +7.39%
PSUBNKBEES +5.34%
JUNIORBEES +5.30%
INFRABEES +4.37%
NIFTYBEES +4.21%
GOLDBEES -1.73%
Gold was the most hated asset, the end of US QE and all…

Yield Curve

Japan is going to buy foreign bonds. So there:

yield Curve.2014-9-30.2014-10-31

Bond Indices

Sub Index Change in YTM Total Return(%)
GSEC TB -0.06 +0.71%
GSEC SUB 1-3 -0.37 +0.09%
GSEC SUB 3-8 -0.12 +0.74%
GSEC SUB 8 -0.12 +2.38%
Is the Japanese bid factored in?

Interbank Lending

mibor.30days.2014-10-31

Theme Performance

Market Fliers finally woke up. Momentum put in a decent performance. Overall, not a bad month.

Thought to sum up the month

“Humans hate randomness, the idea that we lack control and don’t really know what the future holds. It stimulates excitement to feel like we are in control of the future.”

And financial news organizations from CNBC to print and digital news outlets are all too happy to give viewers and readers what they seem to want. Besides, if publications, Websites, and television networks simply told investors to buy and hold, with periodic rebalancing, it would be that much harder to fill pages and airtime.

Source: The Timeless Allure of Stock-Market Timers

Related:

Monthly Recap: The Dornbusch Rule

world.2014-08-28.2014-9-30

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) -0.85%
CAC(FRA) -0.02%
UKX(GBR) -3.65%
NKY(JPN) +1.31%
SPX(USA) -2.59%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) -2.71%
INMEX(MEX) -3.01%
NGSEINDX(NGA) -0.36%
XU030(TUR) -9.13%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) -12.62%
SHCOMP(CHN) +7.65%
NIFTY(IND) -0.11%
INDEXCF(RUS) -1.58%
TOP40(ZAF) -4.71%

Commodities

Energy
Brent Crude Oil -8.29%
Ethanol -29.94%
Heating Oil -6.66%
Natural Gas -0.50%
RBOB Gasoline -11.26%
WTI Crude Oil -4.06%
Metals
Copper -2.88%
Gold 100oz -5.36%
Palladium -12.55%
Platinum -9.38%
Silver 5000oz -11.79%

Currencies

USDEUR:+4.31% USDJPY:+4.88%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) +3.95%
USDMXN(MEX) +2.62%
USDNGN(NGA) +0.68%
USDTRY(TUR) +5.38%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) +10.67%
USDCNY(CHN) -0.09%
USDINR(IND) +1.81%
USDRUB(RUS) +7.69%
USDZAR(ZAF) +5.42%
Agricultural
Cattle +5.29%
Cocoa -2.17%
Coffee (Arabica) +3.51%
Coffee (Robusta) +0.79%
Corn -11.13%
Cotton -5.74%
Feeder Cattle +10.07%
Lean Hogs +11.64%
Lumber -1.12%
Orange Juice -4.42%
Soybean Meal -29.19%
Soybeans -14.56%
Sugar #11 +2.75%
Wheat -13.09%
White Sugar -1.74%

Credit Indices

Index Change
Markit CDX EM +0.26%
Markit CDX NA HY -2.12%
Markit CDX NA IG +8.12%
Markit CDX NA IG HVOL +19.25%
Markit iTraxx Asia ex-Japan IG -1.49%
Markit iTraxx Australia +2.66%
Markit iTraxx Europe +5.79%
Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover +28.88%
Markit iTraxx Japan -3.93%
Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe -3.01%
Markit LCDX (Loan CDS) -0.07%
Markit MCDX (Municipal CDS) +11.80%
A US interest rates normalize, money that was sloshing about in frontier/emerging markets tends to flow back home. The US Dollar rallies, EM equities and credit wobble and commodities crash. Here’s to hoping that ZIRP stays on for a few more years and the ECB embarks on QE to pick up where the Fed left-off.

Index Performance

index performance.2014-08-28.2014-9-30

Sector Performance

sector performance.2014-08-28.2014-9-30

Market Cap Decile Performance

Decile Mkt. Cap. Adv/Decl
1 (micro) +4.17% 79/58
2 +11.38% 77/59
3 +9.65% 78/59
4 +6.86% 78/59
5 +7.74% 78/58
6 +4.69% 78/60
7 +6.04% 74/63
8 +2.70% 72/65
9 +2.14% 66/71
10 (mega) +0.75% 66/72
In spite of market jitters towards the end of September, small and mid-caps managed to come out way ahead of the large caps…

Top Winners and Losers

ZEEL +14.78%
DIVISLAB +15.06%
CIPLA +21.90%
JINDALSTEL -25.84%
BHEL -16.79%
BANKINDIA -16.38%
So much for the recovery trade. The market re-discovered FMCG, Pharma and IT…

ETFs

JUNIORBEES +0.66%
NIFTYBEES +0.13%
INFRABEES -1.59%
PSUBNKBEES -1.61%
BANKBEES -2.27%
CPSEETF -2.70%
GOLDBEES -3.93%
Gold turning out to be terrible investment…

Yield Curve

The whole curve shifted down… lower inflation and rate-cut expectations can do that. But the curve might get steeper, given Rajan’s 6% inflation target for 2016.

yield Curve.2014-08-28.2014-9-30

Bond Indices

Sub Index Change in YTM Total Return(%)
GSEC TB -0.05 +0.76%
GSEC SUB 1-3 +0.09 +0.68%
GSEC SUB 3-8 +0.27 -0.16%
GSEC SUB 8 +0.04 +0.17%
No big moves…

Interbank Lending

mibor.30days.2014-9-30

Theme Performance

Has been a good month for most investment strategies. However, high beta continued to get pummeled.

Thought to sum up the month

The Dornbusch Rule:

The Dornbusch rule is that your calculations of fundamentals may be accurate, and you may have high confidence in them, but nothing requires that the market has to have high confidence in your beliefs about fundamentals. Thus markets can remain far away from equilibrium for far longer than you, who understand and are dazzled by your analytical insights, think possible.

As the spouse of one senior hedge-fund official put it: your theory of the world is that the market is inefficient when you put a trade on but will rapidly become efficient thereafter — where “rapidly” means “before your clients lose their patience with you”.

Source: PIMCO: How to Lose (Lots of) Money and Still Influence People