Index Update 05.12.2015

MOMENTUM

We run our proprietary momentum scoring algorithm on indices just like we do on stocks. You can use the momentum scores of sub-indices to get a sense for which sectors have the wind on their backs and those that are facing headwinds.

Traders can pick their longs in sectors with high short-term momentum and their shorts in sectors with low momentum. Investors can use the longer lookback scores to position themselves using our re-factored index Themes.

You can see how the momentum algorithm has performed on individual stocks here.

Here are the best and the worst sub-indices:

index momentum best 365 2015-12-04 png

index momentum best 50 2015-12-04 png

index momentum worst 365 2015-12-04 png

index momentum worst 50 2015-12-04 png

Relative Strength Spread

NIFTY_500 relative-spread-index 50 2015-12-04 png

Refactored Index Performance

50-day performance, from September 18, 2015 through December 04, 2015:

Trend Model Summary

Index Signal % From Peak Day of Peak
NIFTY AUTO SHORT
9.44
2015-Jan-27
NIFTY BANK SHORT
17.80
2015-Jan-27
NIFTY COMMODITIES SHORT
35.95
2008-Jan-04
NIFTY CONSUMPTION SHORT
5.81
2015-Aug-05
NIFTY ENERGY SHORT
31.97
2008-Jan-14
NIFTY FIN SERVICE SHORT
16.57
2015-Jan-28
NIFTY FMCG SHORT
9.90
2015-Feb-25
NIFTY INFRA SHORT
56.92
2008-Jan-09
NIFTY IT SHORT
88.51
2000-Feb-21
NIFTY MEDIA LONG
18.62
2008-Jan-04
NIFTY METAL LONG
67.66
2008-Jan-04
NIFTY MNC SHORT
11.10
2015-Aug-10
NIFTY PHARMA SHORT
15.81
2015-Apr-08
NIFTY PSE SHORT
35.06
2008-Jan-04
NIFTY PSU BANK LONG
42.61
2010-Nov-05
NIFTY REALTY LONG
90.84
2008-Jan-14
NIFTY SERV SECTOR SHORT
14.66
2015-Mar-03
NIFTY MNC has been trailing lately. Is the trade overdone?

Monthly Recap: November Rain

world.2015-10-30.2015-11-30

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) +4.79%
CAC(FRA) +1.10%
UKX(GBR) +0.47%
NKY(JPN) +4.87%
SPX(USA) -0.55%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) +2.30%
INMEX(MEX) -2.01%
NGSEINDX(NGA) -6.51%
XU030(TUR) -4.51%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) -1.23%
SHCOMP(CHN) +2.18%
NIFTY(IND) -1.37%
INDEXCF(RUS) +3.58%
TOP40(ZAF) -4.05%

Commodities

Energy
RBOB Gasoline -5.10%
Brent Crude Oil -11.02%
Ethanol -7.28%
Heating Oil -9.08%
Natural Gas -4.35%
WTI Crude Oil -11.31%
Metals
Silver 5000oz -8.39%
Gold 100oz -6.35%
Platinum -14.84%
Palladium -18.51%
Copper -10.39%

Currencies

USDEUR:+3.75% USDJPY:+2.02%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) +0.73%
USDMXN(MEX) +0.06%
USDNGN(NGA) -0.76%
USDTRY(TUR) -0.98%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) +0.40%
USDCNY(CHN) +1.29%
USDINR(IND) +1.88%
USDRUB(RUS) +4.88%
USDZAR(ZAF) +4.55%
Agricultural
Cocoa +1.63%
Feeder Cattle -14.79%
Lean Hogs -1.22%
Orange Juice +5.55%
Sugar #11 +2.00%
Cattle -6.61%
Cotton -3.22%
Lumber -3.23%
Soybean Meal -5.11%
Wheat -11.24%
White Sugar +2.58%
Coffee (Arabica) -3.65%
Corn -3.66%
Coffee (Robusta) -7.95%
Soybeans +0.45%

Credit Indices

Index Change
Markit CDX EM +0.54%
Markit CDX NA HY -0.97%
Markit CDX NA IG +5.91%
Markit iTraxx Asia ex-Japan IG -1.93%
Markit iTraxx Australia +7.62%
Markit iTraxx Europe -0.81%
Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover -7.97%
Markit iTraxx Japan +9.43%
Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe -0.27%
Markit LCDX (Loan CDS) -0.04%
Markit MCDX (Municipal CDS) -0.50%
Most global indices ended the month in the red. The US Dollar rallied against most major currencies and the market seems to have come to terms with a December liftoff in US interest rates.

International ETFs (USD)

global.etf.performance.2015-10-30.2015-11-30

Nifty Heatmap

NIFTY 50.2015-10-30.2015-11-30

Index Returns

index.performance.2015-10-30.2015-11-30

Market Cap Decile Performance

Decile Mkt. Cap. Adv/Decl
1 (micro) +9.56% 68/67
2 +10.94% 78/56
3 +9.16% 78/56
4 +5.00% 74/60
5 +4.13% 84/50
6 +4.99% 78/56
7 +2.13% 71/63
8 +1.53% 65/69
9 +0.87% 67/67
10 (mega) -1.62% 64/71
Large caps trailed mid and small caps…

Top Winners and Losers

MOTHERSUMI +17.63%
GAIL +18.37%
PETRONET +20.69%
DRREDDY -27.39%
SUNPHARMA -17.98%
SAIL -14.34%
Biggest moves where brought about by regulatory events…

ETF Performance

PSUBNKBEES +6.77%
CPSEETF +1.19%
BANKBEES +0.34%
JUNIORBEES -0.22%
NIFTYBEES -1.87%
INFRABEES -2.50%
GOLDBEES -6.07%
PSU Banks: dead cat bounce or are government efforts finally turning things around?

Yield Curve

yieldCurve.2015-10-30.2015-11-30

Bond Indices

Sub Index Change in YTM Total Return(%)
0 5 +0.08 +0.38%
5 10 +0.13 -0.07%
10 15 +0.13 -0.28%
15 20 +0.15 -0.83%
20 30 +0.13 -0.72%
Next rate cuts are probably six months away…

Investment Theme Performance

Most investment strategies did well… November saw Quality to Price post over +250% and Momentum post over +200% gains since their inception in August 2013.

Equity Mutual Funds

Bond Mutual Funds

Institutional flows

FPIs sold off both bonds and equities…

dii-investments.2014-01-01.2015-11-30

fii-investments.2014-01-01.2015-11-30

US Yield Curve

ust-yield-curve.2011-01-18

Spread between Indian and US long bonds

ust-ind-10yr-spread.2011-01-18

Theme: Acceleration Update 01.12.2015

Introduction

Momentum strategies are based on measures of “speed” – change in price (distance traveled) over a specific unit of time. Acceleration goes one step further and measures the rate of change of momentum. This strategy is relatively new – we set it up in the middle of November. It would be interesting to see how this strategy pans out.

Performance summary

held since returns (%)
8KMILES
2015-Nov-19
+0.54
GODFRYPHLP
2015-Nov-19
+19.06
RAJESHEXPO
2015-Nov-19
+3.81
GAYAPROJ
2015-Nov-19
+9.19
JUBILANT
2015-Nov-19
+2.91
COSMOFILMS
2015-Nov-19
+1.02
RUSHIL
2015-Nov-19
+3.29
MANGALAM
2015-Nov-19
+40.62
HIMATSEIDE
2015-Nov-19
+6.74
ALLSEC
2015-Nov-19
+18.78
TVSELECT
2015-Nov-19
+2.29
NIITLTD
2015-Nov-19
+7.47
PTL
2015-Nov-19
+8.51
ESTER
2015-Nov-19
+8.71
TRIGYN
2015-Nov-19
+25.91
EMMBI
2015-Nov-19
+22.39
TRIDENT
2015-Nov-19
+8.37
GUFICBIO
2015-Nov-19
+24.46
NITCO
2015-Nov-19
+20.29
MERCATOR
2015-Nov-19
+4.63
Since the last rebalance on 2015-Nov-19 till 2015-Nov-30, this strategy has returned +9.70%

You can find more details about the Acceleration Theme here.

Theme: Velocity Update 01.12.2015

Introduction

Our “absolute” momentum strategy is about three months old now and has put in some decent performance numbers. It will be interesting to see how this absolute-momentum strategy compares to relative-momentum over a longer time-frame.

Performance Summary

held since returns (%)
TATAELXSI
2015-Sep-04
+14.98
GAYAPROJ
2015-Sep-04
+88.74
GMBREW
2015-Sep-04
+129.97
SANGAMIND
2015-Sep-04
+25.82
RUSHIL
2015-Sep-04
+108.01
MIRZAINT
2015-Sep-04
+42.70
8KMILES
2015-Oct-06
+0.58
WELSPUNIND
2015-Oct-06
+1.45
DISHMAN
2015-Oct-06
-17.05
SRIPIPES
2015-Oct-06
-1.01
TAKE
2015-Oct-06
+21.04
NCLIND
2015-Oct-06
+45.22
LYKALABS
2015-Oct-06
+59.55
NAVINFLUOR
2015-Nov-02
+8.42
DEEPIND
2015-Nov-02
+6.78
PGEL
2015-Nov-02
-22.91
AEGISCHEM
2015-Nov-02
+7.13
MADHUCON
2015-Nov-02
+2.36
EMMBI
2015-Nov-02
+55.79
IZMO
2015-Nov-02
+36.50
Since the last rebalance on 2015-Nov-02 till 2015-Nov-30, this strategy has returned +9.22%

You can find more details about the Velocity Theme here.

Theme: Momentum Update 01.12.2015

Introduction

Our relative momentum strategy, simply called Momentum, is our longest-running momentum strategy. Between its inception in Aug 2013 and now, it has clocked an impressive +212% translating to an IRR of about +65%.

Performance summary

held since returns (%)
KEI
2015-Aug-10
-3.38
TATAELXSI
2015-Sep-07
+16.24
CAPLIPOINT
2015-Sep-07
-5.33
GAYAPROJ
2015-Sep-07
+88.39
SANGAMIND
2015-Sep-07
+30.35
TAKE
2015-Sep-07
+86.91
MIRZAINT
2015-Sep-07
+46.51
JUBILANT
2015-Oct-06
+5.36
NCLIND
2015-Oct-06
+45.48
NILKAMAL
2015-Nov-02
+5.41
ICIL
2015-Nov-02
+16.02
KPRMILL
2015-Nov-02
+4.05
VADILALIND
2015-Nov-02
+12.26
SRIPIPES
2015-Nov-02
-8.64
NDL
2015-Nov-02
+9.77
LYKALABS
2015-Nov-02
+19.55
NIBL
2015-Nov-02
-1.20
EMMBI
2015-Nov-02
+55.53
IZMO
2015-Nov-02
+37.54
MIC
2015-Nov-02
+13.82
Since the last rebalance on 2015-Nov-02 till 2015-Nov-30, this strategy has returned +13.31%

You can find more details about the Momentum Theme here.