Analysis: LUPIN

Today’s pick is LUPIN. [stockquote]LUPIN[/stockquote]. The stock has been in an uptrend through-out the past year. It recorded its 52 week high of Rs. 631 in the month of Sep following which it started moving in a range of Rs. 550 – Rs. 600.The stock closed above this range yesterday. In the last three months, the stock moved -3% against 11% rise of Nifty’s.

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Oscillators RSI and CMO are at currently at 66 and 56 – in the over-bought territory. Although looking at the historical reversal levels, the stock still has to track 10 points.

The MACD line in on up-move and is supported by the rising histograms, a sign of bullishness for the scrip.

The long-term GMMA lines are starting to spread out (a bullish sign) accompanied with the expanding short-term lines, suggesting a short-term bullish move for the stock. This is further confirmed by the 9×18 bullish cross-over last week.

cor

LUPIN’s average correlation of 0.30 with the Nifty is positive. Although, the stock will not be replicating the movements of Nifty given the small co-efficient. [stockquote]NIFTYBEES[/stockquote]

vol

LUPIN has a historical volatility in the range of 0.3 to 0.6. The scrip’s volatility is at its lowest.

Looking at these technicals the stock is short-term BUY. We could give a long-term call after a decisive expansion of the long-term GMMA lines.

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Analysis: STER (SLT)

Today’s pick is STER. [stockquote]STER[/stockquote]. After an initial uptrend in Feb this year, the stock deflated through June and settled in a range-bound side-ways motion ever since its merger with Sesa Goa [stockquote]SESAGOA[/stockquote] was approved. However, it just saw a very iffy breakout of the resistance level (Rs. 115) in the last trading session. In the last three months, the stock moved 14% against 13% rise of Nifty’s.

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Oscillators RSI and CMO are at currently at 68 and 55 – in over-bought territory.

The MACD line is showing a sign of pull back accompanied with the stagnation of the histogram levels, a sign of imminent bearish move for the scrip.

A long-term prediction cannot be made given that the long-term (red) GMMA lines are moving very close to each other. However, the short-term lines (blue) are experiencing a pullback, suggesting a short-term bearish move.

cor

STER’s average correlation of 0.72 with the Nifty is positive and quite strong. The stock will be replicating the movements of Nifty pretty closely. [stockquote]NIFTYBEES[/stockquote]

vol

STER has a historical volatility in the range of 0.3 to 0.8. The scrip’s volatility is currently in the middle of the range, and is not a cause of concern for the traders.

Looking at these technicals the stock is short-term SELL. Over the longer-term, we suggest a HOLD for now, with a keen eye trained towards the Rs. 115 resistance level.

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Weekly Recap

NIFTY.2012-12-03.2012-12-07

The NIFTY ended on a positive note, drifting up +1.41% for the week.
Biggest losers were HCLTECH (-6.47%), INFY (-4.75%) and BHARTIARTL (-4.32%).
And the biggest winners were JPASSOCIAT (+9.36%), SBIN (+6.72%) and HINDALCO (+6.17%).

fii.2012-12-03.2012-12-07Advancers lead decliners 31 vs 19
Gold: -1.91%, Banks: +3.19%. Infrastructure: +2.60%,

Net FII flows for the week: $733.87 mm (Equity) and – $443.48 mm (Debt)

Daily news summaries are here.

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Analysis: HCLTECH

Today’s pick is HCLTECH. [stockquote]HCLTECH[/stockquote]. After being range-bound between 450 and 500 for the first half of the year, it broke-out in July, and has continued with the uptrend since. The stock just saw its 52 week high at 660 levels. In the last three months, the stock moved 8% against 13% rise of Nifty’s.

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Oscillators RSI and CMO are at currently at 51 and 4 – in no man’s land.

The MACD line just crossed signal line in a bearish manner which can pull the stock down for a short-term. Also, the short-term 9×4 technical just saw a bearish cross over for the stock.

The long-term GMMA lines are well spread out, and hence are giving a positive outlook for the stock.

cor

HCLTECH’s average correlation of 0.49 with the Nifty is positive. The stock will replicate the movements of Nifty. [stockquote]NIFTYBEES[/stockquote]

vol

HCLTECH has a historical volatility in the range of 0.3 to 0.7. The scrip’s volatility is currently in the lower side of the range.

Looking at these technicals the stock is short-term SELL. A longer term call can be taken once it becomes clear that the stock holds the current trend-line.

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Analysis: GRASIM

Today’s pick is GRASIM. [stockquote]GRASIM[/stockquote]. After a head-fake in Jan-Feb this year the stock touched its 52 week low of 2200 in June. It then swiftly swung towards its 52 week high of 3510. However, it looks as if the stock has exhausted whatever momentum it had. In the last three months, the stock has under-performed the Nifty, rising just 11% against the 12% rise of Nifty’s.

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Oscillators RSI and CMO are at 51 and –4 and are currently in no man’s land. The MACD line made a bullish crossover a few days ago, resulting in a slight bump up in the stock.

The long-term GMMA lines are running very close to each and are not suggesting any particular direction. In the short-term, you could possibly trade the 9X18 bullish cross-over.

cor

GRASIM’s average correlation of 0.59 with the Nifty is positive. The stock will replicate the movements of Nifty closely. [stockquote]NIFTYBEES[/stockquote]

vol

GRASIM has a historical volatility in the range of 0.3 to 0.6. The scrip’s volatility is currently in the lower side of that range.

Looking at these technicals the stock is short-term buy. A longer term call could be taken based on the stocks behavior around its 3400 resistance level.

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