Live Portfolio trades for Feb/20

Till now you all have seen how the portfolio was getting rejigged because of trailing stop-losses being hit for the losers. But today I sold FKONCO [stockquote]FKONCO[/stockquote] at a profit of around 11% over a 3 trading days time .

I used the same proceeds to get long in GEOMETRIC [stockquote]GEOMETRIC[/stockquote]. Although, given the technicals I would have entered the trade at the start of the day itself, but due to no cash, had to wait to take any position. The MACD crossover happening and the stock bouncing back of its 3 months support line, it provided a good opportunity for a trade.

GEOMETRIC Technical Analysis Chart

The portfolio currently looks like this.

Untitled

Lets hope for the best.

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Analysis: COLPAL

Today’s pick is COLPAL [stockquote]COLPAL[/stockquote]. The stock has been on an uptrend for most part of the year. The stock experienced its 52 week high of Rs. 1,580 in December but since then the stock has been moving downwards retracing the gains. In the last three months, the stock has moved +2% vs. +5% of the Nifty’s.

COLPAL technical analysis chart

Oscillator RSI and CMO are close to the over-sold territory. The stock is trading in the middle of a narrowing Bollinger band giving no directional bias.

The MACD line has just penetrated the signal line in a bullish manner. However, Long-term and short-term GMMA lines can be seen inverted in a bearish manner given the downward movement of the stock.

COLPAL correlation chart

COLPAL’s average correlation with the Nifty is +0.26 which is positive but weak. The scrip will not be replicating movement of Nifty closely. [stockquote]NIFTYBEES[/stockquote]

COLPAL volatility chart

COLPAL has a historical volatility in the range of 0.3 to 0.7. The scrip’s volatility is currently in the lower end of the range and hence not a concern for the traders.

Given these technicals, we suggest a short-term buy. For the long-term we suggest to take a call based upon the expansion of the long-term GMMA lines. However trailing stop-losses will be of help in case sudden trend-reversal were to take place.

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Live Portfolio trades for Feb/19

When stocks behave oddly than they should have over a 5 days time, its better to get rid of them even though they are making loss. This strategy doesn’t hold good for long only investor, because they don’t have to actively manage their portfolio.

Hence, UCOBANK [stockquote]UCOBANK[/stockquote] that was stuck in the portfolio since long needed a push out. The stock in the holding period made a –5% return. Although, selling this stock provided us opportunity to hold another stock where the technicals are supporting a buy.

The RSI and CMO levels are confirming an up-move, which is being pushed further ahead by the bullish penetration of the signal line by the MACD line.

NTPC Technical analysis chart

Hopefully, the technicals will prove themselves again as they did for FKONCO, which is up 11% since I included in the portfolio this Friday.

The portfolio currently looks as follows.

Untitled

Cheers!

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Analysis: GOLDBEES

Today’s pick is GOLDBEES [stockquote]GOLDBEES[/stockquote]. The ETF started the year with an uptrend to reach 52 weeks high of Rs. 3,100 levels. This level proved to be a resistance, and the ETF saw a formation of double top by the end of November. Since then the ETF is in a continuous down-trend. In the last three months, the ETF has moved -7% vs. +5% of the Nifty’s.

GOLDBEES technical analysis chart

Oscillator RSI and CMO have been trading close to the over-sold territory since long, and are not giving any directional bias. The ETF is trading in the lower end of a very compact Bollinger band giving no directional bias. Short-term technical just saw 9×4 bearish cross-over.

The MACD line and signal line are moving parallel to each other, unable to give any outlook. Also, Long-term and short-term GMMA lines are running close to each other and are not giving out any directional bias.

GOLDBEES correlation chart

GOLDBEES’s average correlation with the Nifty is -0.02 which is negative. The scrip will not be replicating movement of Nifty. [stockquote]NIFTYBEES[/stockquote]

GOLDBEES volatility chart

GOLDBEES has a historical volatility in the range of 0.1 to 0.4. The scrip’s volatility is currently in the lower end of the range.

Given these technicals, we suggest a short-term sell. For the long-term we could take a call based on the ETF’s behavior around Rs.2,700 support levels.

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Analysis: STER(SLT)

Today’s pick is STER [stockquote]STER[/stockquote]. The stock started the year with a rush to Rs. 140 levels, and after peaking off, it started its descent. The stock found a support around Rs 90 levels. Since then the stock has tested the support many times. Also, the stock seems to have found resistance around Rs. 120, which was tested twice in December, and stock again plummeted to the support levels. In the last three months, the stock has moved +3% vs. +5% of the Nifty’s.

STER Technical analysis chart

Oscillator RSI and CMO are closing in towards the over-sold territory. The stock is trading in the lower end of a very large Bollinger band range giving bullish bias.

The MACD line and signal line are moving parallel to each other, unable to give any outlook. Stagnating histogram levels do suggest forthcoming trend reversal. Also, Long-term and short-term GMMA lines are running close to each other and are not giving out any directional bias.

STER Correlation chart

STER’s average correlation with the Nifty is +0.71 which is positive and strong. The scrip will be replicating movement of Nifty closely. [stockquote]NIFTYBEES[/stockquote]

STER Volatility chart

STER has a historical volatility in the range of 0.3 to 0.8. The scrip’s volatility is currently in the lower end of the range and hence not a concern for the traders.

Given these technicals, we suggest a short-term sell. For the long-term we suggest to take a call based upon its behavior around the support levels.

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