Banking for the poor: Will corporates do what PSUs failed to?

In India, there are about 6,00,000 villages, but out of these only 60,000 villages have banking facilities which means 90 % of the villages are unbanked. Against such a grim background, the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) recent decision to issue new licences to private corporates and public sector entities has aroused renewed hopes of improving banking services in unbanked areas.

Since India has opted for a bank-driven model to achieve financial inclusion, banks will play a crucial role in the whole process of inclusive growth.

STATE-WISE DATA

So far, RBI has made the right noises as far as improving financial inclusion is concerned saying banks must view it as a business opportunity rather than an obligation. While issuing guidelines for bank licences in February, RBI had said, “The business plan of applicants will have to address how the bank proposes to achieve financial inclusion.”

While the intent of institutions and regulators is little to doubt, they have all come a cropper as far as execution is concerned and it is high time that we differentiate the ‘doers’ from the ‘talkers’?

Financial inclusion has been a dud so far due to lack of technology, lack of a viable business model, higher cost of transactions and absence of reach and coverage, etc.

SEPT 2012

Every year, the government spends thousands of crores (Rs 14,000 crore in 2013-14) in recapitalising public sector banks to enable timely and adequate credit and other financial services to the weaker sections and low income groups. However, PSU banks have failed to extend basic banking services to the ‘bottom of the pyramid’ due to various factors like lack of clear policy framework and poor infrastructure and execution, resulting in financial inclusion remaining only on paper.

Institutions must overcome primary challenges like high cost of transactions, huge initial investments to create the necessary infrastructure and other expenses like financial education for the poor before financial inclusion can yield dividends.

But in this era of cut-throat competition, where banks are constantly driven by higher interest margins and intoxicated by the ideology of profit maximisation, asking bankers and financial executives to opt for social banking is a conflicting proposition that makes for a great headline but will make little headway.

Past efforts like nationalisation of banks, Lead Bank Scheme, development of Regional Rural Banks and formation of Self-Help Groups to take banking services to the masses have failed to increase penetration. Even the much-famed business correspondents (BCs) model has been a laggard.

 

FINANCIAL COMPARISON

In this context, a critical question that matters is- will corporates be able to design and deliver innovative financial services at affordable cost?

Corporates must create better awareness about banking facilities and design products which are poor-centric to ensure that the poor shed their inhibitions while approaching a bank.

Another area that corporates must grapple with is the high clout that politicians and bureaucrats wield in rural areas. Driven by electoral gains, many politicians exercise undue influence to push PSU banks to extend agricultural credit and other goodies to rural households, particularly close to elections. (Example- Rs 52,000 crore Farm Loan waiver.)

 

GRAPH

In the case of the farm loan waiver, a lot of funds, aimed at poor farmers, were allegedly diverted by middlemen and politicians. The mandate for corporates is to use financial inclusion to effectively check corruption and empower the poor.

But since they have been mandated to open only 25% of the branches in unbanked areas, it is hard to figure out if they can make any meaningful impact in addressing financial inclusion.

[stockquote]PSUBNKBEES[/stockquote] [stockquote]BANKBEES[/stockquote]

Analysis: GLENMARK

Today’s pick is GLENMARK [stockquote]GLENMARK[/stockquote]. The stock has been on an uptrend since the start of the year. It saw its 52 weeks high of Rs. 552 in January, and since then has been on a pennant formation. The decreasing volume levels are suggesting that it is soon going to decide on its next move. In the last three months, the stock moved +11% Vs. -1% of the Nifty’s.

GLENMARK technical analysis chart

Oscillator RSI and CMO are in no man’s land. The stock is currently trading in the middle of the Bollinger bands. Short-term technical just saw a bullish dragonfly doji and a bearish 18×4 SMA cross-over.

The MACD line is moving along the signal line since a month, not suggesting any directional move for the stock. Also, the Long-term and short-term GMMA lines are contracting, unable to provide any outlook for the stock.

GLENMARK correlation chart

GLENMARK’s average correlation with the Nifty is 0.33 which is positive. The scrip will be replicating movement of Nifty. [stockquote]NIFTYBEES[/stockquote]

GLENMARK volatility chart

GLENMARK has a historical volatility in the range of 0.4 to 0.8. The scrip’s volatility is currently in the middle of the range.

Given these technicals, we suggest a short-term Hold. A long-term call could be taken depending on the directional breakout of the pennant in formation. It is also suggested to have a tight trailing stop-losses level to book profits in case of a sudden trend-reversal.

Analysis: SUNPHARMA

Today’s pick is SUNPHARMA [stockquote]SUNPHARMA[/stockquote]. The stock has been on an uptrend since the start of the year. After finding resistance at Rs. 550 for a couple of months, it started its up move.in June. It saw its 52 weeks high of Rs. 826 towards February end. Since then it is trending down. In the last three months, the stock moved +11% Vs. -2% of the Nifty’s.

SUNPHARMA Technical Analytis Chart

Oscillator RSI and CMO are currently drawing back from the over-bought territory; a corrective move. The stock is currently trading in the middle of the Bollinger bands.

The MACD line has just punctured the signal line in a bearish move accompanied with a downward moving histogram is signaling a short-term trend reversal. However, the Long-term GMMA lines are expanding suggesting a bullish outlook for the long-term.

SUNPHARMA correlation chart

SUNPHARMA’s average correlation with the Nifty is 0.41 which is positive. The scrip will be replicating movement of Nifty. [stockquote]NIFTYBEES[/stockquote]

SUNPHARMA volatility chart

SUNPHARMA has a historical volatility in the range of 0.3 to 0.7. The scrip’s volatility is currently in the lower end of the range.

Given these technicals, we suggest a short-term SELL. A long-term BUY is suggested given the long-term trend-line in place. It is also suggested to have a relaxed trailing stop-losses levels to book profits in case of a trend-reversal.

Analysis: BOSCHLTD

Today’s pick is BOSCHLTD [stockquote]BOSCHLTD[/stockquote]. The stock started the year with a double bottom around Rs. 7,500 levels and started its up-move. After moving in a range till September, it saw a bullish breakout to reach 52 weeks high of Rs. 9,600 level in January. Since then the stock is on a down-turn and was trading around its support levels of Rs. 8,400 yesterday. In the last three months, the stock moved -9% Vs. -3% of the Nifty’s.

BOSCHLTD Technical Analysis Ltd

Oscillator RSI and CMO are currently hovering deep inside the over-sold territory, giving out a bullish signal for the scrip. close to over-bought territory. The stock is currently trading at the lower edge of a broad Bollinger bands.

The MACD line and signal line are moving parallel to each other without giving any trend reversal signal. Also, the Long-term GMMA lines are contracted and hence are not suggesting any immediate opportunities.

BOSCHLTD Correlation chart

BOSCHLTD’s average correlation with the Nifty is 0.01 which is positive but weak. The scrip will not be replicating movement of Nifty. [stockquote]NIFTYBEES[/stockquote]

BOSCHLTD volatility chart

BOSCHLTD has a historical volatility in the range of 0.2 to 0.6. The scrip’s volatility is currently in the lower end of the range.

Given these technicals, we suggest a short-term Buy. A long-term BUY is suggested if the stock holds this support level. It is suggested to have tight trailing stop-losses to book profits in case of a sudden trend-reversal.

Analysis: CONCOR

Today’s pick is CONCOR [stockquote]CONCOR[/stockquote]. The stock started the year with a double top around Rs. 950 levels and dropped to find support at Rs. 850. After trading for a while near its support, it started its uptrend to see its 52 weeks high of Rs. 1,100. This was followed by a drop to Rs. 900 levels by Feburary, and the stock currently is again on an up-move. In the last three months, the stock moved +15% Vs. -4% of the Nifty’s.

CONCOR Technical analysis chart

Oscillator RSI and CMO are currently hovering close to over-bought territory. The stock is currently trading close to the upper edge of Bollinger bands.

The MACD line and signal line are moving parallel to each other without giving trend reversal signal. Also, the Long-term and short-term GMMA lines are spreading out and hence are pointing towards a continuation of up-move.

CONCOR Correlation chart

CONCOR’s average correlation with the Nifty is 0.45 which is positive. The scrip will be replicating movement of Nifty. [stockquote]NIFTYBEES[/stockquote]

CONCOR Volatility chart

CONCOR has a historical volatility in the range of 0.3 to 0.7. The scrip’s volatility is currently in the upper end of the range.

Given these technicals, we suggest a short-term and a long-term BUY is suggested given the underlying trend. It would be nice to have tight trailing stop-losses to book profits in case of a sudden trend-reversal.