Category: Your Money

Monthly Recap: The Unreliable Experts

world.2015-07-31.2015-08-31

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) -11.53%
CAC(FRA) -10.53%
UKX(GBR) -8.87%
NKY(JPN) -11.75%
SPX(USA) -6.44%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) -8.12%
INMEX(MEX) -2.52%
NGSEINDX(NGA) -0.09%
XU030(TUR) -7.15%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) -8.27%
SHCOMP(CHN) -13.57%
NIFTY(IND) -8.82%
INDEXCF(RUS) +2.53%
TOP40(ZAF) -6.33%

Commodities

Energy
Brent Crude Oil +1.55%
RBOB Gasoline -20.43%
Heating Oil +5.31%
Natural Gas -0.11%
WTI Crude Oil +2.13%
Ethanol -2.80%
Metals
Copper -2.53%
Gold 100oz +3.98%
Platinum +2.33%
Silver 5000oz -2.01%
Palladium -3.68%

Currencies

USDEUR:-2.46% USDJPY:-3.07%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) +4.13%
USDMXN(MEX) +4.51%
USDNGN(NGA) +0.18%
USDTRY(TUR) +5.21%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) +5.63%
USDCNY(CHN) +2.49%
USDINR(IND) +3.39%
USDRUB(RUS) +5.67%
USDZAR(ZAF) +5.15%
Agricultural
Coffee (Robusta) -10.83%
White Sugar -3.49%
Coffee (Arabica) -4.25%
Cotton -0.87%
Orange Juice +5.07%
Sugar #11 -3.86%
Wheat -2.76%
Cattle -1.92%
Cocoa -1.60%
Corn -2.89%
Feeder Cattle -4.25%
Soybeans -8.96%
Lean Hogs -13.32%
Lumber -7.58%
Soybean Meal -9.85%

Credit Indices

Index Change
Markit CDX EM -1.30%
Markit CDX NA HY -1.26%
Markit CDX NA IG +8.97%
Markit iTraxx Asia ex-Japan IG +20.22%
Markit iTraxx Australia +10.82%
Markit iTraxx Europe +7.90%
Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover +35.71%
Markit iTraxx Japan +3.62%
Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe +0.08%
Markit LCDX (Loan CDS) -0.14%
Markit MCDX (Municipal CDS) +3.22%
All major indices suffered huge losses. The dollar rallied, commodities fell and investors fled risk-assets.

Oil

oil_fut_chart_august_2015

With oil down about 57 per cent from its peak last June, and copper and iron ore down about 50 and 70 per cent respectively from their peaks in early 2011, it has become clear that story was profoundly misleading. Whether or not the supercycle exists, the regular old cycle definitely does, and there is nothing very super about it at all.

Why the commodities super cycle was a myth

USDINR

usd_fut_chart_august_2015

Nifty Heatmap

CNX NIFTY.2015-07-31.2015-08-31

Index Returns

index.performance.2015-07-31.2015-08-31

Market Cap Decile Performance

Decile Mkt. Cap. Adv/Decl
1 (micro) -10.15% 69/68
2 -9.65% 53/83
3 -11.73% 45/92
4 -10.91% 50/86
5 -11.00% 46/90
6 -8.71% 51/86
7 -6.63% 56/80
8 -5.76% 57/80
9 -6.01% 61/75
10 (mega) -4.25% 72/65
Midcaps bore the brunt…

Top Winners and Losers

LUPIN +14.08%
GLENMARK +14.12%
DIVISLAB +20.52%
VEDL -24.26%
HINDALCO -23.91%
RELCAPITAL -19.41%
Pharma vastly out-performed the cyclicals and commodity players…

ETF Performance

GOLDBEES +7.12%
JUNIORBEES -3.41%
NIFTYBEES -6.44%
PSUBNKBEES -6.53%
BANKBEES -8.55%
INFRABEES -10.30%
CPSEETF -12.67%
Gold caught a safe-haven bid…

Yield Curve

yieldCurve.2015-07-31.2015-08-31

Bond Indices

Sub Index Change in YTM Total Return(%)
0 5 -0.01 +0.73%
5 10 -0.03 +0.77%
10 15 -0.08 +1.25%
15 20 -0.04 +0.98%
20 30 -0.02 +0.89%
Yields went down a smidgen…

Investment Theme Performance

The only strategy that ended in the green was low-vol…

Equity Mutual Funds

Bond Mutual Funds

FII and DII Activity

fii-investments.2014-01-01.2015-08-31

dii-investments.2014-01-01.2015-08-31

FII’s pulled out more than $2.5bn from the Indian markets. DII’s barely lent any support.

Thought to sum up the month

What ails the truth is that it is mainly uncomfortable, and often dull. The human mind seeks something more amusing, and more caressing.

Source: The Unreliable Experts: getting in the way of outstanding performance

Weekly Recap: Risk

world.2015-08-21.2015-08-28

Equities

Major
DAX(DEU) +1.72%
CAC(FRA) +0.95%
UKX(GBR) +0.97%
NKY(JPN) -1.54%
SPX(USA) -0.65%
MINTs
JCI(IDN) +2.54%
INMEX(MEX) +2.38%
NGSEINDX(NGA) -3.50%
XU030(TUR) +1.33%
BRICS
IBOV(BRA) +2.53%
SHCOMP(CHN) -7.85%
NIFTY(IND) -3.59%
INDEXCF(RUS) +3.36%
TOP40(ZAF) +2.26%

Commodities

Energy
Ethanol -0.48%
Heating Oil +7.11%
WTI Crude Oil +12.06%
RBOB Gasoline -0.87%
Brent Crude Oil +9.95%
Natural Gas +1.64%
Metals
Gold 100oz -2.32%
Palladium -2.78%
Copper +1.30%
Platinum -0.73%
Silver 5000oz -5.81%

Currencies

USDEUR:+1.52% USDJPY:-0.45%

MINTs
USDIDR(IDN) +0.30%
USDMXN(MEX) -0.84%
USDNGN(NGA) -0.04%
USDTRY(TUR) +0.23%
BRICS
USDBRL(BRA) +2.66%
USDCNY(CHN) +0.01%
USDINR(IND) +0.50%
USDRUB(RUS) -5.39%
USDZAR(ZAF) +2.72%
Agricultural
Cattle +0.50%
Cocoa +1.91%
Coffee (Arabica) -1.19%
Lean Hogs +6.16%
Lumber -3.34%
Soybean Meal -1.99%
Sugar #11 +4.89%
Wheat -4.26%
Feeder Cattle -4.41%
Orange Juice +1.41%
White Sugar +1.80%
Coffee (Robusta) -4.16%
Corn -0.75%
Cotton -4.89%
Soybeans -1.21%

Credit Indices

Index Change
Markit CDX EM -0.08%
Markit CDX NA HY +0.18%
Markit CDX NA IG +2.08%
Markit iTraxx Asia ex-Japan IG +14.30%
Markit iTraxx Australia +6.45%
Markit iTraxx Europe +3.44%
Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover +9.89%
Markit iTraxx Japan +4.46%
Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe +0.76%
Markit LCDX (Loan CDS) -0.11%
Markit MCDX (Municipal CDS) +1.27%
A total mess of week that saw a sudden collapse, money being sucked out of risk-assets of all types and a retrace in most markets. This one goes to buy-and-hold dollar-cost averagers…

Nifty Heatmap

CNX NIFTY.2015-08-21.2015-08-28

Index Returns

For a deeper dive into indices, check out our weekly Index Update.
index.performance.2015-08-21.2015-08-28

Sector Performance

sectorperformance.2015-08-21.2015-08-28

Market Cap Decile Performance

Decile Mkt. Cap. Adv/Decl
1 (micro) -10.11% 69/65
2 -8.75% 45/89
3 -8.68% 48/86
4 -9.56% 41/92
5 -8.71% 42/92
6 -7.32% 44/90
7 -7.77% 57/76
8 -5.78% 53/81
9 -5.45% 52/82
10 (mega) -5.32% 59/75
Massacre across the board…

Top Winners and Losers

CAIRN +2.75%
APOLLOHOSP +3.10%
NMDC +7.47%
BANKINDIA -14.98%
CANBK -14.40%
UNIONBANK -12.46%
PSU banks took it on the chin…

ETF Performance

GOLDBEES -1.27%
CPSEETF -2.37%
JUNIORBEES -3.37%
NIFTYBEES -3.69%
INFRABEES -4.48%
BANKBEES -4.49%
PSUBNKBEES -7.42%
Not a single ETF ended the week in the green…

Yield Curve

yieldCurve.2015-08-21.2015-08-28

Bond Indices

Sub Index Change in YTM Total Return(%)
0 5 -0.01 +0.16%
5 10 +0.01 +0.09%
10 15 -0.02 +0.27%
15 20 +0.02 -0.01%
20 30 -0.01 +0.27%
Stocks down, bonds up?

Investment Theme Performance

Equity Mutual Funds

Bond Mutual Funds

Thought for the weekend

Nothing in the world can give a damn less than risk. Risk doesn’t care about your political views or your morals. It doesn’t care what your view of the market is, or what you were taught in school. It’s an indiscriminate assassin and a master at humbling ideologies.

Source: Risk: Your Best Friend and Worst Enemy

Index Update 29.08.2015

MOMENTUM

We run our proprietary momentum scoring algorithm on indices just like we do on stocks. You can use the momentum scores of sub-indices to get a sense for which sectors have the wind on their backs and those that are facing headwinds.

Traders can pick their longs in sectors with high short-term momentum and their shorts in sectors with low momentum. Investors can use the longer lookback scores to position themselves using our re-factored index Themes.

You can see how the momentum algorithm has performed on individual stocks here.

Here are the best and the worst sub-indices:

index momentum best 365 2015-08-28 png

index momentum best 50 2015-08-28 png

index momentum worst 365 2015-08-28 png

index momentum worst 50 2015-08-28 png

Relative Strength Spread

CNX_500 relative-spread-index 50 2015-08-28 png

Refactored Index Performance

50-day performance, from June 22, 2015 through August 28, 2015:

Trend Model Summary

Index Signal % From Peak Day of Peak
CNX AUTO LONG
11.83
2015-Jan-27
CNX BANK LONG
16.26
2015-Jan-27
CNX COMMODITIES LONG
36.29
2008-Jan-04
CNX CONSUMPTION LONG
7.46
2015-Aug-05
CNX ENERGY LONG
35.67
2008-Jan-14
CNX FMCG SHORT
9.51
2015-Feb-25
CNX INFRA LONG
52.21
2008-Jan-09
CNX IT LONG
87.87
2000-Feb-21
CNX MEDIA LONG
20.76
2008-Jan-04
CNX METAL LONG
66.87
2008-Jan-04
CNX MNC LONG
8.07
2015-Aug-10
CNX NIFTY LONG
11.05
2015-Mar-03
CNX PHARMA SHORT
6.44
2015-Apr-08
CNX PSE LONG
33.30
2008-Jan-04
CNX PSU BANK LONG
40.41
2010-Nov-05
CNX REALTY LONG
91.29
2008-Jan-14
CNX SERVICE LONG
11.61
2015-Mar-03
A week that saw momentum come crashing down. Worst part: CNX REALTY is more than 91% down from its peak in Jan’08…

Correlation Update 29.08.2015

Nifty one year daily return correlations

Nifty one year daily return correlations

Nifty one month daily return correlations

Nifty one month daily return correlations

Bank Nifty one year daily return correlations

Bank Nifty one year daily return correlations

Bank Nifty one month daily return correlations

Bank Nifty one month daily return correlations

Midcap one year daily return correlations

Midcap one year daily return correlations

Midcap one month daily return correlations

Midcap one month daily return correlations

A lot of thick blue squares mean that positive correlations are high. Red squares mean negative correlations are high. Whites are the doldrums.

Index Update 22.08.2015

MOMENTUM

We run our proprietary momentum scoring algorithm on indices just like we do on stocks. You can use the momentum scores of sub-indices to get a sense for which sectors have the wind on their backs and those that are facing headwinds.

Traders can pick their longs in sectors with high short-term momentum and their shorts in sectors with low momentum. Investors can use the longer lookback scores to position themselves using our re-factored index Themes.

You can see how the momentum algorithm has performed on individual stocks here.

Here are the best and the worst sub-indices:

index momentum best 365 2015-08-21 png

index momentum best 50 2015-08-21 png

index momentum worst 365 2015-08-21 png

index momentum worst 50 2015-08-21 png

Relative Strength Spread

CNX_500 relative-spread-index 50 2015-08-21 png

Refactored Index Performance

50-day performance, from June 15, 2015 through August 21, 2015:

Trend Model Summary

Index Signal % From Peak Day of Peak
CNX AUTO SHORT
7.89
2015-Jan-27
CNX BANK LONG
12.15
2015-Jan-27
CNX COMMODITIES LONG
34.50
2008-Jan-04
CNX CONSUMPTION SHORT
3.78
2015-Aug-05
CNX ENERGY LONG
33.41
2008-Jan-14
CNX FMCG SHORT
7.13
2015-Feb-25
CNX INFRA LONG
50.11
2008-Jan-09
CNX IT LONG
87.40
2000-Feb-21
CNX MEDIA LONG
20.08
2008-Jan-04
CNX METAL LONG
66.83
2008-Jan-04
CNX MNC SHORT
3.39
2015-Aug-10
CNX NIFTY SHORT
7.74
2015-Mar-03
CNX PHARMA LONG
2.61
2015-Apr-08
CNX PSE LONG
31.90
2008-Jan-04
CNX PSU BANK SHORT
35.02
2010-Nov-05
CNX REALTY SHORT
91.14
2008-Jan-14
CNX SERVICE SHORT
8.30
2015-Mar-03
The few areas of strength were in CONSUMPTION, MNC and PHARMA. Momentum strategies would have gotten shellacked given the brutal mean reversion in relative strength spread.