Category: Your Money

Analysis: SUZLON

Today’s pick is SUZLON [stockquote]SUZLON[/stockquote]. The stock started the year with a series of tops at Rs 30 levels, and then the stock slowly moved down to find support around Rs. 15. After hovering around the same levels for three months it started its current up-move in Late November. In the last three months, the stock has moved +60% vs. +5% of the Nifty’s.

SUZLON Technical Analysis Chart

Oscillator RSI and CMO are close to the over-bought territory. The stock is trading in the upper end of Bollinger band giving a downward bias.

The MACD line is closing in towards the signal line in a bearish manner and is being confirmed by the dropping histogram levels. However, Long-term GMMA lines are quite distant from each other and are giving out a bullish signal for long-term.

SUZLON correlation chart

SUZLON’s average correlation with the Nifty is 0.57 which is positive and strong. The scrip will be replicating movement of Nifty closely. [stockquote]NIFTYBEES[/stockquote]

SUZLON Volatility chart

SUZLON has a historical volatility in the range of 0.4 to 1.2. The scrip’s volatility is currently in the upper end of the range.

Given these technicals, we suggest a short-term sell. For the long-term, the GMMA lines, and strong up-trend are suggesting a BUY. However trailing stop-losses will be of help in case sudden trend-reversal were to take place.

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Analysis: MTNL (MTE)

Today’s pick is MTNL [stockquote]MTNL[/stockquote]. The stock started saw a triple-top at the beginning of the year at Rs 35, and then moved down to find support around Rs. 22. After hovering around for a couple of weeks it started its up-move to see 52 week’s high of Rs 45 around September. Since then the stock has been on a slide, waiting to find any support. In the last three months, the stock has moved -13% vs. +4% of the Nifty’s.

MTNL technical analysis chart

Oscillator RSI and CMO are closing in towards the over-sold territory. The stock is trading close to the lower end of Bollinger band giving an upward bias.

The MACD line and the signal line are moving parallel to each other and suggest the short –term downtrend to continue. Also, Long-term GMMA lines are starting to converge given the range-bound movement of the stock.

MTNL Correlation chart

MTNL’s average correlation with the Nifty is 0.57 which is positive and strong. The scrip will be replicating movement of Nifty closely. [stockquote]NIFTYBEES[/stockquote]

MTNL Volatility chart

MTNL has a historical volatility in the range of 0.4 to 1.2. The scrip’s volatility is currently in the lower end of the range.

MTNL Analysts coverage

Analysts continue to be bearish about the stock, and are distributed amongst underperform and sell calls.

Given these technicals and analysts call, we suggest a short-term sell. For the long-term, we could take a call based on the behavior of GMMA lines.

Read experts advice on the sector here.

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The StockViz Reference Portfolio – Feb/08

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A down week for our portfolio, the portfolio crashed by 4.7%.

As the NIFTY dipped by 2.33% over the week, our momentum portfolio was down 4.7% underperforming NIFTY by over 2 percent. However, we continue the process of following a systematic repeatable process, with appropriate risk management steps and hope for a better performance in the coming week.

Talk to us about our Quantitative Portfolio Strategy Execution.

 

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Weekly Recap

NIFTY.2013-02-04.2013-02-08

The NIFTY ended on a bearish note, melting down -2.19% for the week.
Biggest losers were JPASSOCIAT (-12.35%), BANKBARODA (-11.49%) and CIPLA (-8.14%).
And the biggest winners were TCS (+5.53%), HDFC (+3.97%) and SUNPHARMA (+3.64%).
Decliners eclipsed advancers 38 vs 12

fii.2013-02-04.2013-02-08
Gold: +0.38%, Banks: -2.77%. Infrastructure: -6.02%,

Net FII flows for the week: $1,843.29 mm

(Equity) and $112.15 mm (Debt)

 

 

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